The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[CaptainSlow]

FN2TypeR said:

turbobloke said:

Yes it's exactly like that.

The eternal pessimism of ajd is wearing thin. No hang on it's threadbare already, it was wearing thin a long time ago.

I'm still very happy that we're leaving the EU and that my vote was a minutely small part of that process, the checks and balances available to the UK represent a cause for optimism.

I'd be pessimistic if I was in one of the countries still languishing in the dysfunctional EU, and even worse, the EZ.

Like us?

We're in the EU, but we're not one of the countries "languishing", I'd suggest we could be described as proactively taking actions to leave.

[Mario149]

wc98 said:

Mario149 said:

I think you're right, there are def people in the EU in other countries who want out. I was only speaking for my family and friends abroad (although the last stats I saw had overall support for the EU still in the majority and increasing). I think part of the incredulity they expressed (and I suspect this is felt at a national level in the EU as well) is linked somewhat to the envy you mentioned. The UK has opt outs etc that other countries don't have. I imagine they are mildly envious because in many ways we've been having our cake and eating for quite a while. Which incidentally will probably make it all the harder for them politically to give us a deal we want.

the sad thing for me regarding european friends is the fear in their voice when talking about leaving or the break up of the eu. real fear that their home countries are no longer in a position to look after their best interests . i never hear anyone (bar one french hitchhiker i gave a lift to last year) speak of the eu in glowing terms anymore. obviously we have different friends and they have different opinions .

I think that comes down to the fact that European countries have a different mentality. They recognise that they are likely stronger together even if they see that the union is imperfect. Although I'm sure all could go it alone if needed as every country can. We like to naively think that we don't have to be team players and are something special and always will be. A glance back to the 70s and the Sick man of Europe should show us that's a complete illusion. We can rise and fall just like everyone else. Being positive is good. Ignoring history and assuming we're somehow special is not.

[turbobloke]

Mario149 said:

wc98 said:

Mario149 said:

I think you're right, there are def people in the EU in other countries who want out. I was only speaking for my family and friends abroad (although the last stats I saw had overall support for the EU still in the majority and increasing). I think part of the incredulity they expressed (and I suspect this is felt at a national level in the EU as well) is linked somewhat to the envy you mentioned. The UK has opt outs etc that other countries don't have. I imagine they are mildly envious because in many ways we've been having our cake and eating for quite a while. Which incidentally will probably make it all the harder for them politically to give us a deal we want.

the sad thing for me regarding european friends is the fear in their voice when talking about leaving or the break up of the eu. real fear that their home countries are no longer in a position to look after their best interests . i never hear anyone (bar one french hitchhiker i gave a lift to last year) speak of the eu in glowing terms anymore. obviously we have different friends and they have different opinions .

I think that comes down to the fact that European countries have a different mentality. They recognise that they are likely stronger together even if they see that the union is imperfect. Although I'm sure all could go it alone if needed as every country can. We like to naively think that we don't have to be team players and are something special and always will be. A glance back to the 70s and the Sick man of Europe should show us that's a complete illusion. We can rise and fall just like everyone else. Being positive is good. Ignoring history and assuming we're somehow special is not.

Good job then that the above strawman isn't what we're doing.

Putting your preferred rationale into the hearts and minds of an entire nation, so you can argue against it even when it doesn't apply, is quite a move. Cool.

Note: we will still be in team Europe, but not in team EU (thank goodness).

[Mario149]

Norfolkit said:

fblm said:

Perhaps we shouldn't be completely surprised that a septuagenarian classics academic sees the world through a lense of British Imperialism. If the good Professor removed his head from his ar5e long enough he might notice that no one else has given a st about empire for 50 years. I imagine in his cosy Cambridge bubble the condescension will go completely unoticed and he has received many earnest congratulations for this drivel.

"Nicholas Boyle FBA (born 18 June 1946) is the Schröder Professor of German at the University of Cambridge and a fellow of Magdalene College, Cambridge. He has written widely on German literature, intellectual history and religion and is known particularly for his award-winning extensive biography of Goethe (of which two of a projected three volumes have been published).[1] Boyle became a fellow of the British Academy in 2000.[2]"

He'd be my go to guy for the view of the average man on the street.

I'm not sure the view of the average man on the street is especially useful tbh.

[walm]

Jockman said:

I think you'll find it's easier to moan about something that might never happen than to actually think of a solution.

You mean like fronting the campaign to Leave?

[kurt535]

turbobloke said:

Mario149 said:

wc98 said:

Mario149 said:

I think you're right, there are def people in the EU in other countries who want out. I was only speaking for my family and friends abroad (although the last stats I saw had overall support for the EU still in the majority and increasing). I think part of the incredulity they expressed (and I suspect this is felt at a national level in the EU as well) is linked somewhat to the envy you mentioned. The UK has opt outs etc that other countries don't have. I imagine they are mildly envious because in many ways we've been having our cake and eating for quite a while. Which incidentally will probably make it all the harder for them politically to give us a deal we want.

the sad thing for me regarding european friends is the fear in their voice when talking about leaving or the break up of the eu. real fear that their home countries are no longer in a position to look after their best interests . i never hear anyone (bar one french hitchhiker i gave a lift to last year) speak of the eu in glowing terms anymore. obviously we have different friends and they have different opinions .

I think that comes down to the fact that European countries have a different mentality. They recognise that they are likely stronger together even if they see that the union is imperfect. Although I'm sure all could go it alone if needed as every country can. We like to naively think that we don't have to be team players and are something special and always will be. A glance back to the 70s and the Sick man of Europe should show us that's a complete illusion. We can rise and fall just like everyone else. Being positive is good. Ignoring history and assuming we're somehow special is not.

Good job then that the above strawman isn't what we're doing.

Putting your preferred rationale into the hearts and minds of an entire nation, so you can argue against it even when it doesn't apply, is quite a move. Cool.

Note: we will still be in team Europe, but not in team EU (thank goodness).

Agreed we won't be in team Europe. Not sure they want us either though....

Also, am just unsure how CoL tax receipts can be worth say, £60bn p/a to UK but nobody is that bothered about losing enormous chunks of it to Europe; bearing in mind we pay net £8.5bn to the EU and everyone can't wait to put that money in the NHS...

Thing is, CoL bugging out abroad will cost UK tax revenue a lot more than £8.5bn.

Even if the £8.5bn was seen as an 'exchange fee' to protect the 6 x the money from the city alone, how can this not be worth it?

Other than than, say we lose 1/2 of the tax receipts due to brexit, what part of the remaining 75% service economy can make up the shortfall?

If my figs are wrong, happy to be corrected.

[Norfolkit]

Mario149 said:

Norfolkit said:

fblm said:

Perhaps we shouldn't be completely surprised that a septuagenarian classics academic sees the world through a lense of British Imperialism. If the good Professor removed his head from his ar5e long enough he might notice that no one else has given a st about empire for 50 years. I imagine in his cosy Cambridge bubble the condescension will go completely unoticed and he has received many earnest congratulations for this drivel.

"Nicholas Boyle FBA (born 18 June 1946) is the Schröder Professor of German at the University of Cambridge and a fellow of Magdalene College, Cambridge. He has written widely on German literature, intellectual history and religion and is known particularly for his award-winning extensive biography of Goethe (of which two of a projected three volumes have been published).[1] Boyle became a fellow of the British Academy in 2000.[2]"

He'd be my go to guy for the view of the average man on the street.

I'm not sure the view of the average man on the street is especially useful tbh.

And this guys is?

[anonymous-user]

kurt535 said:

Agreed we won't be in team Europe. Not sure they want us either though....

Also, am just unsure how CoL tax receipts can be worth say, £60bn p/a to UK but nobody is that bothered about losing enormous chunks of it to Europe; bearing in mind we pay net £8.5bn to the EU and everyone can't wait to put that money in the NHS...

Thing is, CoL bugging out abroad will cost UK tax revenue a lot more than £8.5bn.

Even if the £8.5bn was seen as an 'exchange fee' to protect the 6 x the money from the city alone, how can this not be worth it?

Other than than, say we lose 1/2 of the tax receipts due to brexit, what part of the remaining 75% service economy can make up the shortfall?

If my figs are wrong, happy to be corrected.

I *think* the government's position is that if we don't get a decent deal then we will try to smash the system by becoming a de facto "off shore" haven, but with a scale and infrastructure unlike anything before. So if we lose on the EU swings, we should/could gain on the global roundabouts.

[Mario149]

turbobloke said:

Also the EU isn't Europe and it hasn't existed for 200 years.

The EU isn't Europe, but European countries clearly have outlooks and tendencies based on their history, as do we. And if we're to listen to someone, I would suggest that listening to someone who's job is basically analysing, evaluating and critiquing information is not a bad idea, although YMMV

[Digga]

fblm said:

pim said:

They wouldn't understand our health care system if you rubbed their nose in it.

They are weirdly obsessed by our bad teeth and attribute this to a communist health care system.

Living in L.A. I think this greatly amused Lemmy.

Motorhead No Class said:

Shut up, you talk too loud,
You don't fit in with the crowd,
I can't believe you exist,
I've crossed you right off my list,
Too much, too soon, you're way out of tune,
No Class

Way out, you're way out of line,
No buddy I can't spare a dime,
Fade out, baby that's right,
No bark and even less bite,
Your perfect smile, betrays your lack of style,
No Class

Too late, you can't catch up now,
You face the wrong way anyhow,
I know you ain't got the brain,
To come in out of the rain,
Too bad, no magic, I'm afraid you're really tragic,
No Class

[SKP555]

The thing with the Nicholas Boyle argument is that even if he is correct about the initial emotional reasons for being suspicious of the EU it doesn't answer any of the perfectly rational economic or political arguments against EU membership. Just an emotional counter response that we're too small and insignificant to survive on our own, and anyway not very nice.

Same argument has been around for ever and it's never cut it.

[anonymous-user]

desolate said:

I *think* the government's position is that if we don't get a decent deal then we will try to smash the system by becoming a de facto "off shore" haven, but with a scale and infrastructure unlike anything before. So if we lose on the EU swings, we should/could gain on the global roundabouts.

That's what I understand the Govt's strategy to be too. Whether it will work is a different question, obviously.

A further factor to go into the pot, as I think stongle mentioned, is the likelihood that Trump's protectionism/isolationism may drive a push to make NY the global financial centre. London could find itself fighting hard for business on two fronts.

[confused_buyer]

As regards other countries leaving the EU it is worth remembering that if leaving for the UK is very difficult, leaving for a Eurozone and Schenghen Member would be of biblical nightmare proportions.

The Eurozone countries are locked in whether they like it or not and it would be very difficult to untangle unless the Euro does indeed collapse. Locking countries in for good was of course one of the main reasons the Euro was invented in the first place.

[Norfolkit]

confused_buyer said:

As regards other countries leaving the EU it is worth remembering that if leaving for the UK is very difficult, leaving for a Eurozone and Schenghen Member would be of biblical nightmare proportions.

The Eurozone countries are locked in whether they like it or not and it would be very difficult to untangle unless the Euro does indeed collapse. Locking countries in for good was of course one of the main reasons the Euro was invented in the first place.

Not saying it would be easy but it's probably not as difficult as "they" would like you to believe, Czechoslovakia managed to unpick itself pretty successfully.

[stongle]

Greg66 said:

That's what I understand the Govt's strategy to be too. Whether it will work is a different question, obviously.

A further factor to go into the pot, as I think stongle mentioned, is the likelihood that Trump's protectionism/isolationism may drive a push to make NY the global financial centre. London could find itself fighting hard for business on two fronts.

Yep, the article I posted a couple of days ago is a neat example of this. A lot of my American clients comments are "it's all coming back to NYC, ship it in"...

http://www.thetradenews.com/Regulation/US-derivati...

Of course we should be concerned this will NOT be a pretty negotiation. Schaeuble (German Finance minister) this morning is clear on that. I think he's correct on rhetoric on both sides is dialled up high (May was responding to the EC and our internal clowns in SNP, Labour & Liberal parties - in order of opposition importance there) , but the lobbying power and saner heads will hopefully prevail (and there will be enormous EU Govt pressure on the EC to behave because they are fighting on 2 fronts now - US + UK).

The EC & France in particular have tried numerous attempts to derail London before - most recently EUR clearing; but the ECJ ruled in our favour. I accept Kurt535's concerns as totally valid; but look at the spread of news (beyond just passporting); and its not a digital outcome. Example Deutsche Boerse / LSE will remain a 2 centre deal.

Timing here is critical, unlike the ultra-Brexiters the longer we argue and procrastinate on Financial Services plays into London's hands. Failing monetary policy, anaemic growth and low core inflation will worsen the EUs economy. I get why some businesses may panic and jump ship early (Kurt's mates) - but there is a significant upside opportunity in Brexit (and US developments).

Funny enough I voted remain, but come to change my view post vote on the pure chaos that the EC & ECB keeps given. I'd always been a fan of Fiscal intervention and think "the system" in UK and Europe had been failing people - (but I was so wafer thin either way) - I was swung to more of the same (and the fact my wife voted Brexit and she's not to be trusted on anything economic). I have sympathy for the threat of market access - but founding our own FS company (MTF) and since leaving the IB (hence a lot of knowledge on Germany - nice countryside and people / rubbish restaurants) actually feel more positive / Alpha hunting than 20+ years of Bank groupthink.

[turbobloke]

Greg66 said:

desolate said:

I *think* the government's position is that if we don't get a decent deal then we will try to smash the system by becoming a de facto "off shore" haven, but with a scale and infrastructure unlike anything before. So if we lose on the EU swings, we should/could gain on the global roundabouts.

That's what I understand the Govt's strategy to be too. Whether it will work is a different question, obviously.

A further factor to go into the pot, as I think stongle mentioned, is the likelihood that Trump's protectionism/isolationism may drive a push to make NY the global financial centre. London could find itself fighting hard for business on two fronts.

That's as it should be (competition). London has managed to punch at its weight so far, possibly above its weight, and there's no reason to suspect this wouldn't continue given it has the upper hand as the current global financial centre with May free to incentivise.

[Digga]

stongle said:

Timing here is critical, unlike the ultra-Brexiters the longer we argue and procrastinate on Financial Services plays into London's hands. Failing monetary policy, anaemic growth and low core inflation will worsen the EUs economy. I get why some businesses may panic and jump ship early (Kurt's mates) - but there is a significant upside opportunity in Brexit (and US developments).

I have always felt this; patience is going to be rewarded.

stongle said:

The EC & France in particular have tried numerous attempts to derail London before - most recently EUR clearing; but the ECJ ruled in our favour.

This constant sniping at the UK was one of the reasons why I decided to vost as I did.

stongle said:

Funny enough I voted remain, but come to change my view post vote on the pure chaos that the EC & ECB keeps given. I'd always been a fan of Fiscal intervention and think "the system" in UK and Europe had been failing people - (but I was so wafer thin either way) - I was swung to more of the same (and the fact my wife voted Brexit and she's not to be trusted on anything economic). I have sympathy for the threat of market access - but founding our own FS company (MTF) and since leaving the IB (hence a lot of knowledge on Germany - nice countryside and people / rubbish restaurants) actually feel more positive / Alpha hunting than 20+ years of Bank groupthink.

Too many people base decisions on dogma - just look at the "vote any candidate, as long as they're wearing a red rosette" brigade - and it takes a degree of pragmatism and confidence to say, as you have, that when the facts change I will change my mind.

[AC43]

powerstroke said:

Greg66 said:

davepoth said:

Greg66 said:

like it or not some employers are starting to make decisions.

Net economic impact of this so far?

5,000 workers, let's say they're on £100,000 a year average. They each pay £35,000 in tax and NI, and the company will pay in £12,000 in NI contributions. Let's say a nice even £50,000. That's £250m.

It sounds like a lot of money, and it is. It's also about 0.01% of GDP, which sounds a lot less.

It also doesn't take any account of workers that banks move in to London to take account of what will almost certainly be a more business friendly environment.

Chalk one up for "insignificant"

(You seem to be assuming some fairly low incomes, and not putting any figure on the CT on the profits those employers might generate for their employers. And then there's their income which ceases to be pushed back into the economy elsewhere...)

Assuming this roll back is in the south of england , with the railways , transport and housing under pressure and quality of life for many falling
maybe less is more ???

It's very kind of you to think about us Southerners.

I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.

Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.

Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.

I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.

Still, the tube will be quieter.

FFS you don't half spout some sh*te.

[kurt535]

turbobloke said:

Greg66 said:

desolate said:

I *think* the government's position is that if we don't get a decent deal then we will try to smash the system by becoming a de facto "off shore" haven, but with a scale and infrastructure unlike anything before. So if we lose on the EU swings, we should/could gain on the global roundabouts.

That's what I understand the Govt's strategy to be too. Whether it will work is a different question, obviously.

A further factor to go into the pot, as I think stongle mentioned, is the likelihood that Trump's protectionism/isolationism may drive a push to make NY the global financial centre. London could find itself fighting hard for business on two fronts.

That's as it should be (competition). London has managed to punch at its weight so far, possibly above its weight, and there's no reason to suspect this wouldn't continue given it has the upper hand as the current global financial centre with May free to incentivise.

Just being curious, what do you understand by financial passporting as an implication for financial trading?

[Digga]

AC43 said:

I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.

Sorry to hear that. Hope something turns up PDQ.

I do worry whether the city of London's 'outlier' performance, both in terms of its global financial significance and also it's dominant position within the UK economy are not a source for long term concern? Can it continue at present magnitude? Could there be some reversion to mean?

My gut feeling is it can, but at the same time, there is a risk, no matter how small.