The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Mrr T]

Digga said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

Sadiq Kahn made a very cleverly calculated statement last night; that any impact Brexit has on the FS in London would not only be bad for the UK but also the EU, because any shift from London would not be likely to benefit Frankfurt or Paris, but be far, far more likely to benefit Hong Kong or Shanghai or other non-EU financial centres. I think he was not far wrong.

The EU need to think extremely carefully about this.

Edited by Digga on Friday 20th January 12:06

So explain to me how a FS sales person based in HK, Shanghai or NY can sell a FS product to a buyer in the EU without committing a criminal offence?

I think the bigger question is whether, or not, the EU think is actually so important?

Who is this “EU” I have never heard of him. I expect all the leaders of the Council know this and they are actively targeting the business.

[anonymous-user]

Mario149 said:

I'm not sure the view of the average man on the street is especially useful tbh.

You are apparently oblivious to why you lost.

[Murph7355]

AC43 said:

...
It didn't in isolation kill the top end property market last year either. It just administered the fatal injection at the end.

You'd be stretched to attach any legitimate blame on Brexit for that!

[Digga]

fblm said:

Mario149 said:

I'm not sure the view of the average man on the street is especially useful tbh.

You are apparently oblivious to why you lost.

Or why, despite what many might believe, the views of ordinary people are not only valid, but also extremely important. The system may succed in railroading and brow-beating people for a while, but it is mistaken for thinking it actually know what they want.

Within elites, there seems an abject fear of conversing, directly with the quotidian.

[TEKNOPUG]

stongle said:

And Davos says.....

"Bank Execs in Davos Privately Say London Clearing Probably Safe"

Its on Bloomberg.

London will probably end up winning the battle over its clearing industry, according to four top bankers in Davos, adding to the debate over whether the U.K.’s financial industry will be stripped of a crown jewel....

Despite French and German threats to claw away clearing in euro-denominated derivatives, Britain will probably continue to house trillions of euros of swaps trades because limiting where the operations can take place could backfire......

The basic reason given is systemic risk.

Sure its subjective, but there is a increasing consensus shift going on. Still expect France to go for a punch up on this one though.

Do the large banks have any influence in negotiations or decisions? By that I mean, are they in a position to say that they don't want to relocate their business and that the EU should consider reviewing their Euro clearing rules?

[walm]

Murph7355 said:

AC43 said:

...
It didn't in isolation kill the top end property market last year either. It just administered the fatal injection at the end.

You'd be stretched to attach any legitimate blame on Brexit for that!

While obviously you have to take anything an estate agent says with a pinch of salt...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/fo...
"High-profile London estate agency Foxtons has announced a 42% fall in profits, blaming uncertainty around the EU referendum for the fall."

Stamp Duty is the real problem, IMHO.

[walm]

Digga said:

Within elites, there seems an abject fear of conversing, directly with the quotidian.

10/10 for ironically elitist language.
1/10 for using the right word.

Quotidian means daily, or everyday; at a stretch "commonplace".
And I have literally never EVER seen it used as a noun like that.
It's very much normally an adjective. e.g. a quotidian report - a daily report.

Did you simply mean "the common man" or "everyday people"?

[Digga]

walm said:

Digga said:

Within elites, there seems an abject fear of conversing, directly with the quotidian.

10/10 for ironically elitist language.
1/10 for using the right word.

Quotidian means daily, or everyday; at a stretch "commonplace".
And I have literally never EVER seen it used as a noun like that.
It's very much normally an adjective. e.g. a quotidian report - a daily report.

Did you simply mean "the common man" or "everyday people"?

Not really. I find those terms incredibly patronising and not a bit misleading. The discontent that was the core of the discussion is very widely spread - it straddles conventional boundaries of class, education, earnings - but when you hear the elite try to grapple with the issue, they're like an ape looking at an iPhone; they see the thing in it's barest terms, but have absolutely no comprehension of its intricacies. (Queue someone finding a video of a monkey using a smart phone.)

[Murph7355]

walm said:

While obviously you have to take anything an estate agent says with a pinch of salt...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/fo...
"High-profile London estate agency Foxtons has announced a 42% fall in profits, blaming uncertainty around the EU referendum for the fall."

Stamp Duty is the real problem, IMHO.

Especially THAT Estate Agent

Stamp Duty is the biggest contributor IMO. That and general economic unrest for the last 8yrs or 9yrs, a way overpriced market, people not being sensible etc etc.

[anonymous-user]

kurt535 said:

You get paid if you delivered....simple really.

Thats true. Thing is 'delivering' really wasn't that hard and even very mediocre people got paid. You could put a monkey in most market making seats at a big bank and they would make money, I've trained a few. The less said about brokers and sales the better. That said there are many truely brilliant people working in banking (a collosal waste of human capital) but as an industry the ratio of comp to talent is an anomally so far out the ordinary any decent trader would bet against it!

[TTwiggy]

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

Within elites, there seems an abject fear of conversing, directly with the quotidian.

10/10 for ironically elitist language.
1/10 for using the right word.

Quotidian means daily, or everyday; at a stretch "commonplace".
And I have literally never EVER seen it used as a noun like that.
It's very much normally an adjective. e.g. a quotidian report - a daily report.

Did you simply mean "the common man" or "everyday people"?

Not really. I find those terms incredibly patronising and not a bit misleading. The discontent that was the core of the discussion is very widely spread - it straddles conventional boundaries of class, education, earnings - but when you hear the elite try to grapple with the issue, they're like an ape looking at an iPhone; they see the thing in it's barest terms, but have absolutely no comprehension of its intricacies. (Queue someone finding a video of a monkey using a smart phone.)

I posted this on the Trump thread, but it might apply here too. Whichever way your views fall, it seems to nail quite a lot of what's going on. Which isn't bad for 2600-year-old source material.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/ameri...

[Digga]

The article is not wrong, but I think it's slightly missing the cause of anti-establishmentarianism; that the elites in politics, media and business, not only do not actually communicate with the public, but do not even attempt to listen to them.

[anonymous-user]

Digga said:

fblm said:

Mario149 said:

I'm not sure the view of the average man on the street is especially useful tbh.

You are apparently oblivious to why you lost.

Or why, despite what many might believe, the views of ordinary people are not only valid, but also extremely important.

Well quite. The casual dismissal of the 'view of the average man on the street' in deferrence to a Professor of 18th century German, to explain the 'view of the average man on the street'. You couldn't make it up.

[anonymous-user]

TTwiggy said:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/ameri...

Brilliant! Great link, thankyou. Did you notice the article was also written prior to Trump nomination...

[FiF]

fblm said:

TTwiggy said:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/ameri...

Brilliant! Great link, thankyou. Did you notice the article was also written prior to Trump nomination...

Ah but, just like the Daily Mail etc that will be dismissed as it frequently quotes such as Plato. White male philosophers, their thoughts not welcome by the snowflakes in UK academic circles these days apparently.

[AC43]

Murph7355 said:

AC43 said:

...
It didn't in isolation kill the top end property market last year either. It just administered the fatal injection at the end.

You'd be stretched to attach any legitimate blame on Brexit for that!

I've bought and sold a lot of properties. Two of my mates are developers and I know loads people in the trade. Together we know what's going on the market round here. In detail.

Yes the stamp duty had started to kills things off but Brexit really fked it up.

I exchanged the week before Brexit and completed the week after and banked at least 10% more than if I'd been one week later.

Market sentiment is an important factor. London didn't vote for Brexit and it has cast a cloud ever since the vote.

[wc98]

TTwiggy said:

I posted this on the Trump thread, but it might apply here too. Whichever way your views fall, it seems to nail quite a lot of what's going on. Which isn't bad for 2600-year-old source material.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/ameri...

after reading that i imagine andrew sullivan's head has exploded post trump election .it certainly does epitomise the impression i have of the thoughts of the "elite" at the moment , the left behind not so much.

ps , thanks for posting,was an interesting read.

[davepoth]

TEKNOPUG said:

Do the large banks have any influence in negotiations or decisions? By that I mean, are they in a position to say that they don't want to relocate their business and that the EU should consider reviewing their Euro clearing rules?

Not directly. They'll talk to governments and explain their position. Their position right now is that London is a global trading hub, the Euro is not the only game in town, and the square mile has such critical mass in the world's financial markets that pulling Euro clearing back into the Eurozone would not necessarily mean that they'd put any business other than the bare minimum required under the regulations there too.

The risk for the Euro in that scenario, with all clearing taking place in a comparative financial backwater(!) with poor access to funding and other financial services is that it starts to fall out of favour as a reserve currency.

[kurt535]

fblm said:

kurt535 said:

You get paid if you delivered....simple really.

Thats true. Thing is 'delivering' really wasn't that hard and even very mediocre people got paid. You could put a monkey in most market making seats at a big bank and they would make money, I've trained a few. The less said about brokers and sales the better. That said there are many truely brilliant people working in banking (a collosal waste of human capital) but as an industry the ratio of comp to talent is an anomally so far out the ordinary any decent trader would bet against it!

Really? What markets and what years please? Few eager lads here keen to have a look at your recommendations.

[vonuber]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/20/n...

Turkeys, Christmas etc.