The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
vonuber said:
I note that at the bottom of the article that The Guardian are struggling for money.The Guardian said:
Since you’re here…
…we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever but far fewer are paying for it. And advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian's independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because it might well be your perspective, too.
If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure.
…we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever but far fewer are paying for it. And advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian's independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because it might well be your perspective, too.
If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure.
They don't get it, do they?
Edited by don4l on Saturday 21st January 00:49
Nissan were going to leave if we didn't join the Euro.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-25...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-25...
vonuber said:
And why is that relevant to the article?
Because they are peddling crap and fewer people want there pathetic old school leftwing tosh , hence they are struggling to make ends meet ,
makes me smile everytime I open one of those links to see the crappy article
with that at the bottom
SKP555 said:
Nissan were going to leave if we didn't join the Euro.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-25...
I think what people don't realise with this reporting - and it's the same with the banks - is that these large organisations will always be pushing for assistance from government. Whether it's grants, tax breaks, favourable planning permissions, trade deals or whatever, these places don't work in a vacuum just 'putting up' with whatever environment they're working in.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-25...
So every time there is a big change, whether it's Brexit, the Euro or whatever, these companies 'rattle their sabres' to push for more support. The more hysterical commentators like to report it as "OMG, company X is going to LEAVE THE COUNTRY", but a lot of these comments are more about reminding the local and national governments that they exist and expect due consideration.
When a financial institution pipes up with "We might move to Frankfurt", I can't help thinking that they're simply negotiating and trying to get whatever benefits they can push for. Of course Brexit is a concern to them, but if the slightest whiff of change actually made them move, they'd be constantly moving around the world as conditions are always changing. Once we know the actual agreements, then sure, they can announce they will definitely be moving, but until then it cannot be taken as a serious indicator of the END OF THE WORLD. As it is, I'd be sufficiently nervous of the changing conditions within Europe and globally that I couldn't imagine where a business could move to to guarantee a safe, stable and profitable working environment.
Meanwhile I may be about to leave the country and buy a private jet as I may win the lottery tonight.
fblm said:
kurt535 said:
Really? What markets and what years please? Few eager lads here keen to have a look at your recommendations.
Recommendation for what?walm said:
While obviously you have to take anything an estate agent says with a pinch of salt...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/fo...
"High-profile London estate agency Foxtons has announced a 42% fall in profits, blaming uncertainty around the EU referendum for the fall."
Stamp Duty is the real problem, IMHO.
From what I've read (which may be wildly inaccurate), the high end market in London was heavily driven by investment from China and other nations. Since China had its wobble last year, and the global situation is looking more uncertain, that foreign investment has massively reduced. A number of big projects have ground to a halt and top end properties are lying dormant. Inevitably that has a knock on effect on the rest of the market.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/fo...
"High-profile London estate agency Foxtons has announced a 42% fall in profits, blaming uncertainty around the EU referendum for the fall."
Stamp Duty is the real problem, IMHO.
That was being reported long before Brexit became an issue, and from what I heard, many investors felt it was only a matter of time before the market felt the trickle down effect. With some projects taking years to complete, it wasn't going to be an overnight change, but it would definitely happen.
The point is that the issue of Chinese investment is a systemic problem that doesn't appear to be about to change. Brexit has introduced a lot of uncertainty that has made people hang off on short term decisions, but so far it's not a systemic change. Like the Climate Change thread, it's the difference between weather and climate - some reporters are taking every little weather event and trying to extrapolate it out into long term forecasts.
kurt535 said:
fblm said:
kurt535 said:
Really? What markets and what years please? Few eager lads here keen to have a look at your recommendations.
Recommendation for what?
PurpleMoonlight said:
I keep seeing this 'no deal is better than a bad deal'.
Can anyone explain what would in fact be worse than no deal?
Is this not the idea that the EU could come up with something like "You keep on paying us, agree to free movement, let us legislate on trade and standards and we'll make sure you don't come to any harm", and the response might be "Well, we could just fall back on WTO and not remain encumbered by 'EU Lite' rules".Can anyone explain what would in fact be worse than no deal?
It's possible (though unlikely), that the EU could offer a special deal that offers some sort of carrot so long as we accept a good hit with their stick. That might suit those who don't want to loose face within the EU project.
Tuna said:
Is this not the idea that the EU could come up with something like "You keep on paying us, agree to free movement, let us legislate on trade and standards and we'll make sure you don't come to any harm", and the response might be "Well, we could just fall back on WTO and not remain encumbered by 'EU Lite' rules".
I assume the EU offer would be for free trade, or significantly reduced from WTO.Does any country currently pay the EU for their free trade agreements?
don4l said:
vonuber said:
I note that at the bottom of the article that The Guardian are struggling for money.The Guardian said:
Since you’re here…
…we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever but far fewer are paying for it. And advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian's independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because it might well be your perspective, too.
If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure.
…we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever but far fewer are paying for it. And advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian's independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because it might well be your perspective, too.
If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure.
They don't get it, do they?
Bloody hell, if you have the Graun daily - inc the Observe(r) nowt on Sunday - that's almost a grand a year. No bloody wonder they are dangling on the edge of extinction. And these dicks who buy and read it complain about the cost of things. Utterly laughable!
Digga said:
Not really. I find those terms incredibly patronising and not a bit misleading. The discontent that was the core of the discussion is very widely spread - it straddles conventional boundaries of class, education, earnings - but when you hear the elite try to grapple with the issue, they're like an ape looking at an iPhone; they see the thing in it's barest terms, but have absolutely no comprehension of its intricacies. (Queue someone finding a video of a monkey using a smart phone.)
Cue, since it appears to be 'enrich your word power' day.Tuna said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Tuna said:
Right now, we do, don't we? 
No.Free trade and membership of the single market are't the same thing.
* not serious - old police service joke
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