The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[B'stard Child]

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

ecurie said:

Burwood said:

I feel strongly that many underestimate just how much the EU need certain things from us. A deal will be struck even though it will take some time going through the posturing and BS. Our security services/intelligence and army are of great importance. Im positive anyway.

I also think the elections in the Netherlands will raise more issues with the EU. The people there are fed up with immigrants taking the piss and anyone who says something about it is labelled a racist

Edited by Burwood on Monday 23 January 15:05

What I meant is that Britain shouldn't put all its eggs in one (US) basket. A US trade deal would only partially compensate for what will be lost by leaving the EU.
And I agree : it would be best if both parties (UK and EU) reach an agreement they both can live with. And indeed, sooner or later it will happen.

Why do you think the UK is only negotiating with the US?

There are ongoing negotiations with a number of countries taking place, the suggestion that the US is the only one is far from the truth.

Australia jumps to mind as one of the other countries:

http://www.politico.eu/article/australia-to-open-t...

Then there is New Zealand:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/13/u...

I could go on......

So, any views on Australia wanting far greater immigration opportunities for their people to come to the UK?

I also recall India demanding that recently as well.

Do you have a problem with controlled immigration? I don't.........

[Burwood]

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

ecurie said:

Burwood said:

I feel strongly that many underestimate just how much the EU need certain things from us. A deal will be struck even though it will take some time going through the posturing and BS. Our security services/intelligence and army are of great importance. Im positive anyway.

I also think the elections in the Netherlands will raise more issues with the EU. The people there are fed up with immigrants taking the piss and anyone who says something about it is labelled a racist

Edited by Burwood on Monday 23 January 15:05

What I meant is that Britain shouldn't put all its eggs in one (US) basket. A US trade deal would only partially compensate for what will be lost by leaving the EU.
And I agree : it would be best if both parties (UK and EU) reach an agreement they both can live with. And indeed, sooner or later it will happen.

Why do you think the UK is only negotiating with the US?

There are ongoing negotiations with a number of countries taking place, the suggestion that the US is the only one is far from the truth.

Australia jumps to mind as one of the other countries:

http://www.politico.eu/article/australia-to-open-t...

Then there is New Zealand:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/13/u...

I could go on......

So, any views on Australia wanting far greater immigration opportunities for their people to come to the UK?

I also recall India demanding that recently as well.

No issue with that bug it will be tethered. You know uk values. It's important. I know the accent is grating but they do speak English and will work not sponge

[don'tbesilly]

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

ecurie said:

Burwood said:

I feel strongly that many underestimate just how much the EU need certain things from us. A deal will be struck even though it will take some time going through the posturing and BS. Our security services/intelligence and army are of great importance. Im positive anyway.

I also think the elections in the Netherlands will raise more issues with the EU. The people there are fed up with immigrants taking the piss and anyone who says something about it is labelled a racist

Edited by Burwood on Monday 23 January 15:05

What I meant is that Britain shouldn't put all its eggs in one (US) basket. A US trade deal would only partially compensate for what will be lost by leaving the EU.
And I agree : it would be best if both parties (UK and EU) reach an agreement they both can live with. And indeed, sooner or later it will happen.

Why do you think the UK is only negotiating with the US?

There are ongoing negotiations with a number of countries taking place, the suggestion that the US is the only one is far from the truth.

Australia jumps to mind as one of the other countries:

http://www.politico.eu/article/australia-to-open-t...

Then there is New Zealand:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/13/u...

I could go on......

So, any views on Australia wanting far greater immigration opportunities for their people to come to the UK?

I also recall India demanding that recently as well.

I would have thought Australia would take a pragmatic view on immigration and accept similar restrictions on immigration from Australia that they (Australia) currently impose on the UK and probably other countries.

I'd imagine restrictions on immigration from India would also be in place once any agreement was reached.

I don't have a problem with immigration from the EU states either, as long as there is a requirement for whatever skills an immigrant might have, and there is no-one currently able to provide such a skill in the UK.

Is it always about immigration for remain supporters?

[B'stard Child]

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

ecurie said:

Burwood said:

I feel strongly that many underestimate just how much the EU need certain things from us. A deal will be struck even though it will take some time going through the posturing and BS. Our security services/intelligence and army are of great importance. Im positive anyway.

I also think the elections in the Netherlands will raise more issues with the EU. The people there are fed up with immigrants taking the piss and anyone who says something about it is labelled a racist

Edited by Burwood on Monday 23 January 15:05

What I meant is that Britain shouldn't put all its eggs in one (US) basket. A US trade deal would only partially compensate for what will be lost by leaving the EU.
And I agree : it would be best if both parties (UK and EU) reach an agreement they both can live with. And indeed, sooner or later it will happen.

Why do you think the UK is only negotiating with the US?

There are ongoing negotiations with a number of countries taking place, the suggestion that the US is the only one is far from the truth.

Australia jumps to mind as one of the other countries:

http://www.politico.eu/article/australia-to-open-t...

Then there is New Zealand:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/13/u...

I could go on......

So, any views on Australia wanting far greater immigration opportunities for their people to come to the UK?

I also recall India demanding that recently as well.

I would have thought Australia would take a pragmatic view on immigration and accept similar restrictions on immigration from Australia that they (Australia) currently impose on the UK and probably other countries.

I'd imagine restrictions on immigration from India would also be in place once any agreement was reached.

I don't have a problem with immigration from the EU states either, as long as there is a requirement for whatever skills an immigrant might have, and there is no-one currently able to provide such a skill in the UK.

Is it always about immigration for remain supporters?

Is it me or does his comment regarding people from Australia or India seem a bit..... well you know...... Racist? He seems to have a problem with it.....

[davepoth]

kurt535 said:

So, any views on Australia wanting far greater immigration opportunities for their people to come to the UK?

I also recall India demanding that recently as well.

Fine - so long as it's reciprocal. India are only asking for the same regime as China, which seems reasonable.

Remember, any new visa regime will be looking for the best and brightest from all over the world, regardless of nationality.

[Burwood]

If he's australian he's def racist they hate everyone

[AC43]

I found another Brexiteer here in London at the school; gates this morning - I'm always interested to hear other people's views.

He's in oil and gas at the commercial end of things. Basically the company he works for value oil fields for investors.

Voted for Brexit as he thinks London/the UK is reknowned worldwide for commercial and legal expertise and that people will keep beating a path to our door.

If anything business is even better for him as the drop in sterling makes his prices better.

Happy to hear it.

[Burwood]

Brexit isn't discussed amongst 'friends'. There is always the shouty shrill type who doesn't know when to pipe down. The common comment being 'all brexiters are racist' yawn

[pim]

Don't stereo type.We want our country back
no more bend banana's and Johnny Foreigner can take a hike yes?>

[AC43]

Burwood said:

Brexit isn't discussed amongst 'friends'. There is always the shouty shrill type who doesn't know when to pipe down. The common comment being 'all brexiters are racist' yawn

I voted Remain but am quite happy to hear well thought view in favour of Brexit.

I just don't come across many Brexiters at all but this fellah put a decent case as did the guy in construction I met at a party just before Christmas. As did one of my former neighbours (a successful Syrian/Italian accountant FWIW).

It's also good to hear the reduction in sabre-rattling from the European leaders at Davos.

And FT yesterday was seeing some positives - or at least fewer negatives.

So in the world of AC43 a relatively positive week for Brexit news.

[Sway]

ecurie said:

What I meant is that Britain shouldn't put all its eggs in one (US) basket. A US trade deal would only partially compensate for what will be lost by leaving the EU.

Edited by ecurie on Monday 23 January 16:40

Just so we can be clear, and in time measure the accuracy of your crystal ball - what is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Under what circumstances are these values predicated? Loss of single market but retain free trade? 'Lose' everything and default back to WTO MFN? Something else?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

[walm]

Sway said:

What is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

Given that 43% of our exports go to the EU and 13% to the US - it would stretch the bounds of reality to believe that a deal with the US would offset that lost to the EU - at least in the short term.

Not to mention that for all Trump's "the UK is great... Brexit is great..." his main focus isn't on buying more stuff from abroad.

[mikebradford]

walm said:

Not to mention that for all Trump's "the UK is great... Brexit is great..." his main focus isn't on buying more stuff from abroad.

I do believe Trump is the sort of person to give us a better deal if he felt it would lead to the breakdown of the EU.
And i reckon he has some form of agenda to do that.
I look forward to seeing if he achieves his goal, or will the EU implode before his meddling has any real effect.

[ecurie]

Sway said:

Just so we can be clear, and in time measure the accuracy of your crystal ball - what is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Under what circumstances are these values predicated? Loss of single market but retain free trade? 'Lose' everything and default back to WTO MFN? Something else?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

US population : 320 million
EU population (excl. UK) : 446 million

[ecurie]

mikebradford said:

I do believe Trump is the sort of person to give us a better deal if he felt it would lead to the breakdown of the EU.
And i reckon he has some form of agenda to do that.
I look forward to seeing if he achieves his goal, or will the EU implode before his meddling has any real effect.

A better bet might be Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Now that Trumps wants to renogiate Nafta and has pulled out of the TPP, these countries might be looking for new trade partners. And I would thrust them much more than Trump in not wanting to f**k you over.

[Tuna]

Sway said:

ecurie said:

What I meant is that Britain shouldn't put all its eggs in one (US) basket. A US trade deal would only partially compensate for what will be lost by leaving the EU.

Edited by ecurie on Monday 23 January 16:40

Just so we can be clear, and in time measure the accuracy of your crystal ball - what is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Under what circumstances are these values predicated? Loss of single market but retain free trade? 'Lose' everything and default back to WTO MFN? Something else?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

Agreed. We leave the EU and sell our goods through a different trade deal - how that automatically translates to a loss in trade is beyond me. We already run a different currency from Europe, and exchange fluctuations have made our goods more or less expensive for decades. Now we have a different trade deal. Unless that deal involved 100% tariffs, what's the betting cost changes will be absorbed pretty much as usual?

The drop in the pound has already priced in pretty much any expected trade tariff, so in the short term exporters are smiling, and in the long term we're likely as not to be back to the historic average.

Though it seems that some people believe that Europe will just stop buying £220 billion worth of goods each year to teach us a lesson.

[Toaster]

walm said:

Given that 43% of our exports go to the EU and 13% to the US - it would stretch the bounds of reality to believe that a deal with the US would offset that lost to the EU - at least in the short term.

Not to mention that for all Trump's "the UK is great... Brexit is great..." his main focus isn't on buying more stuff from abroad.

Trump wants to build everything in the US so.........what about Ford R&D at Dunton that will have to go. What about Johnson and Johnson production and all those other US owned manufactures and R&D facilities

Oh and don't forget all those import duties he will impose if those companies don't take production home !

[MrNoisy]

Sway said:

Just so we can be clear, and in time measure the accuracy of your crystal ball - what is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Under what circumstances are these values predicated? Loss of single market but retain free trade? 'Lose' everything and default back to WTO MFN? Something else?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

Bloke down the pub said lol

[don4l]

ecurie said:

Sway said:

Just so we can be clear, and in time measure the accuracy of your crystal ball - what is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Under what circumstances are these values predicated? Loss of single market but retain free trade? 'Lose' everything and default back to WTO MFN? Something else?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

US population : 320 million
EU population (excl. UK) : 446 million

Population isn't the whole story. If it were then we would be faar better off leaving the EU and doing a trade deal with India, which has a population of a billion.

US GDP per capita is $53,031 whereas EG GDP per capita is only $35,604.


American customers have more money to spend than EU customers.

[king arthur]

don4l said:

ecurie said:

Sway said:

Just so we can be clear, and in time measure the accuracy of your crystal ball - what is the value of trade that will be 'lost' by us leaving the EU, and what is the increase in value of trade you predict will occur if we gain a free trade deal with the US?

Under what circumstances are these values predicated? Loss of single market but retain free trade? 'Lose' everything and default back to WTO MFN? Something else?

Very easy to make opinion sound like fact...

US population : 320 million
EU population (excl. UK) : 446 million

Population isn't the whole story. If it were then we would be faar better off leaving the EU and doing a trade deal with India, which has a population of a billion.

US GDP per capita is $53,031 whereas EG GDP per capita is only $35,604.


American customers have more money to spend than EU customers.

And they speak English (sort of).