The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

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Digga

40,317 posts

283 months

Friday 17th February 2017
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Burwood said:
Tony Blair being, well, Blair again. Doesn't realise everyone thinks he is a prick.
It's almost like a self-parody. His utter lack of self-awareness makes you cringe in a very similar way to David Brent.

An utter, despicable cock, singing for the suppers of all is hangers-on at the EU pig trough.

wc98

10,391 posts

140 months

Friday 17th February 2017
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when blair says "we" and "our task" , who is the "we" he is referring to ?

Digga

40,317 posts

283 months

Friday 17th February 2017
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wc98 said:
when blair says "we" and "our task" , who is the "we" he is referring to ?
See above, him and his hangers on.

I can imagine the conversation now.

Lord Mandelson of slime and darkness: "Tony, it's terrible, this Brexit thing. I'm really worried about my non job. Even if I don't lose it, where will the next one come from? And what about all our comrades in the IMF?...."

anonymous-user

54 months

Friday 17th February 2017
quotequote all
Blair speaking eloquently on the right wing media cartel. hehe

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Friday 17th February 2017
quotequote all
Digga said:
It's almost like a self-parody. His utter lack of self-awareness makes you cringe in a very similar way to David Brent.

An utter, despicable cock, singing for the suppers of all is hangers-on at the EU pig trough.
This, and his proven track record of doing anything for money. Lacking in any morals he and his awful wife have made this country worse off. It shows the true arrogance of the man that he still thinks his opinions carry any weight in this country.

b2hbm

1,291 posts

222 months

Friday 17th February 2017
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FiF said:
Extension of the negotiations can be agreed, in which case we are still a full member, paying dues and receiving rebate, payments etc.
Extension can be to whatever duration is agreed afaik.
There was/is a school of thought that the first thing that should be done is negotiate an extension as this would make things less pressured. Not sure of this myself as it just gives reason to let things drift, collectively the EU is bad at decision making in reasonable timescales, often leaving it till last minute.
Then there is the additional complication of extension taking it into next general election time. No doubt that's what Blair is hoping for, come riding in on his white charger to rescue Labour, turn the referendum result, and take us into Schengen, euro and whatever else. The last bit is pure speculation probably due to a dislike of Blair.
Thanks for that, I was wondering along similar lines myself although it does seem a crazy idea to extend talks indefinitely, still paying membership but with nobody taking any notice of what we say. To me that's the worst of all worlds, not being able to create external trade deals while still applying EU tariffs to RoW goods and adopting EU regulations which we may or may not desire.

If it's like that in 2020 it will be very difficult to convince a segment of the Tory voters that we have indeed left the EU. Perhaps that explains the current "No deal is better than a poor deal" stance to underline the fact that TM wants it sorted before she goes to the next election.

Murph7355

37,714 posts

256 months

Friday 17th February 2017
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b2hbm said:
Thanks for that, I was wondering along similar lines myself although it does seem a crazy idea to extend talks indefinitely, still paying membership but with nobody taking any notice of what we say. To me that's the worst of all worlds, not being able to create external trade deals while still applying EU tariffs to RoW goods and adopting EU regulations which we may or may not desire.

If it's like that in 2020 it will be very difficult to convince a segment of the Tory voters that we have indeed left the EU. Perhaps that explains the current "No deal is better than a poor deal" stance to underline the fact that TM wants it sorted before she goes to the next election.
Zero point asking for extensions at the outset as no one knows what the opening positions will be. That will drive whether we're done in a month or 24mths or not.

If I were to bet anything it would be that the majority of key items will be done well within the 24mth period. The rest there'll either be agreements in principle to be finished afterwards, or we'll just go our separate ways on them.

There is no need whatsoever to start panicking now. The rest of this year has plenty in store that will influence the path. Not least of which there being general elections in 8 of the remaining 11 net contributors to the EU project (edited to note that some of those elections are actually in '18...but still likely to help influence things).



Edited by Murph7355 on Friday 17th February 12:50

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Friday 17th February 2017
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
b2hbm said:
Thanks for that, I was wondering along similar lines myself although it does seem a crazy idea to extend talks indefinitely, still paying membership but with nobody taking any notice of what we say. To me that's the worst of all worlds, not being able to create external trade deals while still applying EU tariffs to RoW goods and adopting EU regulations which we may or may not desire.

If it's like that in 2020 it will be very difficult to convince a segment of the Tory voters that we have indeed left the EU. Perhaps that explains the current "No deal is better than a poor deal" stance to underline the fact that TM wants it sorted before she goes to the next election.
Zero point asking for extensions at the outset as no one knows what the opening positions will be. That will drive whether we're done in a month or 24mths or not.

If I were to bet anything it would be that the majority of key items will be done well within the 24mth period. The rest there'll either be agreements in principle to be finished afterwards, or we'll just go our separate ways on them.

There is no need whatsoever to start panicking now. The rest of this year has plenty in store that will influence the path. Not least of which there being general elections in 8 of the remaining 11 net contributors to the EU project.
quite. and with Marine Le Pens popularity only getting stronger, +5pts from january there is strong chance of a FREXIT. I think it will happen which would mean the beginning of the end of the EU project. The Dutch are next then italy.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
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anonymous-user

54 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
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PurpleMoonlight said:
That's what everyone wants is it not?

They are asking for a non discriminatory visa regime, so that Ausies get the same treatment as EU citizens post Brexit.

That's the whole point of Brexit with regards to immigration. Remove the current discriminatory regime where EU citizens have a better deal than the rest of the world.

You seem to have made a pro leave the EU point. I guess that wasn't your plan with this link. laugh

davepoth

29,395 posts

199 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
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PurpleMoonlight said:
So long as they reciprocate, no problem. Australia is a rich country, and so assuming the visa freedoms are similar, the flow of people will likely be fairly symmetrical.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
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jsf said:
That's what everyone wants is it not?

They are asking for a non discriminatory visa regime, so that Ausies get the same treatment as EU citizens post Brexit.

That's the whole point of Brexit with regards to immigration. Remove the current discriminatory regime where EU citizens have a better deal than the rest of the world.

You seem to have made a pro leave the EU point. I guess that wasn't your plan with this link. laugh
My point is that free trade agreements appear to always come with strings attached and aren't just about free trade.


Sway

26,275 posts

194 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
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PurpleMoonlight said:
My point is that free trade agreements appear to always come with strings attached and aren't just about free trade.
What strings?

He's not asking for preferential treatment, merely equal with every other nation. That's not a 'string' or 'angle'.

Free trade deals really are mostly just about free trade.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
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Sway said:
What strings?

He's not asking for preferential treatment, merely equal with every other nation. That's not a 'string' or 'angle'.

Free trade deals really are mostly just about free trade.
'We would want to see greater access for Australian business people working in the UK and that´s often been a part of free trade negotiations.'


Seems like preferential treatment to me.

Sway

26,275 posts

194 months

Saturday 18th February 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
What strings?

He's not asking for preferential treatment, merely equal with every other nation. That's not a 'string' or 'angle'.

Free trade deals really are mostly just about free trade.
'We would want to see greater access for Australian business people working in the UK and that´s often been a part of free trade negotiations.'


Seems like preferential treatment to me.
"That means we essentially don't discriminate between countries and we would have thought that it would be to your advantage and might be to our advantage to have a non-discriminatory approach to Australians"

Compared to today, that's greater access. Due to various calls to limit total immigration numbers, the only option was to discriminate against Australians and most other global nations.

Doesn't sound preferential to me, merely stopping the current discrimination.

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 25th February 2017
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Some good news for powerstrokee et al to gloat over.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/25/b...

davepoth

29,395 posts

199 months

Saturday 25th February 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Some good news for powerstrokee et al to gloat over.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/25/b...
The best they could manage is a single financial firm that has a £31m turnover? Weak.

Deptford Draylons

10,480 posts

243 months

Saturday 25th February 2017
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///ajd said:
Some good news for powerstrokee et al to gloat over.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/25/b...
So the 'exodus' is one company starting an operation in another country with no mention of the loss of jobs you were really hoping for ?
Got any more Denis MacShane articles to share this week ?

alfie2244

11,292 posts

188 months

Murph7355

37,714 posts

256 months

Saturday 25th February 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Some good news for powerstrokee et al to gloat over.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/25/b...
I wonder what government initiatives Mr Black's firm was in receipt of...

Edited by Murph7355 on Sunday 26th February 06:33

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