The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[davepoth]

Just as a point of perspective, BMW/MINI sells around 250,000 cars in the UK a year - it's a net importer of vehicles. that makes it more and not less likely that they'd want to keep manufacturing in the UK if there's a tariff barrier - but it might mean that Cowley ends up building a wider variety of cars than just MINIs, while some MINIs might well be made on the continent.

[///ajd]

debunked?

dream on - the denial is strong here.

"its only a flesh wound"

[Sway]

///ajd said:

Ah, good to see a few hundred jobs can be ignored as irrelevant. It seems some can't see the danger of a bigger EU footprint.

How about this? 24,000 jobs at stake.....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

Just as Minford promised!

You can of course quote where anyone has said the GS jobs are irrelevant? Oh wait, no one did.

What people did point out is that it's normal contingency planning, and as per my link exceptionally unlikely. Even MrrT has stopped banging on about passporting.

The Mini article is amusing. BMW employ 24 thousand people, not the Mini factory.

BMW also recognise the importance of the UK connection to the Mini brand, hence why all that's really being talked about (again, only as part of contingency planning) is the proposed electric Mini.

Note that once again, this is contingency planning. Financial passporting of some kind (if even necessary) is looking very likely, as is an FTA.

To save a few back and forth posts:

AJD: But trade deals take on average 7 years, we're all doomed.

Sway: That's the overall average, including agreements on mutual recognition. What's the average lead time for a FTA to be agreed when the starting point is existing tariff free trade and mutual recognition of standards?

AJD:.....

[zygalski]

I don't know what everyone's complaining about. Would've happened anyway. These Johnny foreigners are just using Brexit as an excuse.
We can now concentrate on selling more cars from British-owned companies to our friends in the Commonwealth.
A clear win-win

[turbobloke]

zygalski said:

selling more cars from British-owned companies

All it needs is a Grant and a loose definition of what a car is...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/02/22/s...

Bet Juncker wants one after he's had a couple

[FiF]

Not to mention Tusk is saying he wants the least possible pain in the divorce.

But folks, better get ready for several years of no opportunity being missed by the usual culprits to post input dripping with implied "Told ya!"

[Borghetto]

amusingduck said:

You can get around the ft paywall (and indeed, most paywalls) by googling the article.

Something to do with google not listing pages if it's robots can't crawl the article (which a paywall would prevent).

For example, this article is -
https://www.ft.com/content/5b7690ce-0b08-11e7-ac5a...

if you google "ft" and the last bit "5b7690ce-0b08-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43" to get "ft 5b7690ce-0b08-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43"

you get -


Which you can click on to give you the full article -

Thank you for that - you are one smart dude.

[zygalski]

turbobloke said:

zygalski said:

selling more cars from British-owned companies

All it needs is a Grant and a loose definition of what a car is...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/02/22/s...

Exactly. There we go. This could be the start of the revival of our fortunes on the international stage. I can see this selling big in Belize.

[Sway]

FiF said:

Not to mention Tusk is saying he wants the least possible pain in the divorce.

But folks, better get ready for several years of no opportunity being missed by the usual culprits to post input dripping with implied "Told ya!"

Agreed. Especially when they neither understand the principle or content of what they're posting...

Was just thinking earlier, remember just after the vote, when the FTSE100 didn't collapse?

One relatively informed poster commented about the FTSE250 being a better measure, as far fewer multinationals, and it showed a bigger drop.

Funny that we haven't heard much about the armageddon in the markets since then, after all those posters weren't gloating about the impacts they'd warned about, they were afraid for people's pensions and livelihoods - even when it was the thick racist pensioners that voted for Brexit in the first place.

Perhaps those posters will now admit they were a tad hasty in their prophecies of doom and gloom: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices...

[don'tbesilly]

Sway said:

FiF said:

Not to mention Tusk is saying he wants the least possible pain in the divorce.

But folks, better get ready for several years of no opportunity being missed by the usual culprits to post input dripping with implied "Told ya!"

Agreed. Especially when they neither understand the principle or content of what they're posting...

Was just thinking earlier, remember just after the vote, when the FTSE100 didn't collapse?

One relatively informed poster commented about the FTSE250 being a better measure, as far fewer multinationals, and it showed a bigger drop.

Funny that we haven't heard much about the armageddon in the markets since then, after all those posters weren't gloating about the impacts they'd warned about, they were afraid for people's pensions and livelihoods - even when it was the thick racist pensioners that voted for Brexit in the first place.

Perhaps those posters will now admit they were a tad hasty in their prophecies of doom and gloom: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices...

Ahh,yes,but no,hang on,the UK hasn't left yet.

Armageddon was postponed from the 24th June 2016, it's rescheduled to commence on the 30th March 2017 and to last indefinitely.

[Deptford Draylons]

///ajd still intently searching the Indy and Guardian for bad news Brexit, still posting speculation. Nearly a year on and you must be bursting to find a job loss story to say 'told you so'. This sounds like another repeat of when you were hoping Nissan would walk. Don't you get depressed hoping for bad news ?

[zygalski]

Deptford Draylons said:

///ajd still intently searching the Indy and Guardian for bad news Brexit, still posting speculation. Nearly a year on and you must be bursting to find a job loss story to say 'told you so'. This sounds like another repeat of when you were hoping Nissan would walk. Don't you get depressed hoping for bad news ?

Don't start putting out the bunting just yet. We have yet to negotiate the terms of our leaving. I would imagine many of the big investors in UK plc would make their decisions one way or the other only once the dust has begun to settle.

[SidewaysSi]

Seems like going to be a big hit to Financial Services and London...

[Jordan210]

davepoth said:

Just as a point of perspective, BMW/MINI sells around 250,000 cars in the UK a year - it's a net importer of vehicles. that makes it more and not less likely that they'd want to keep manufacturing in the UK if there's a tariff barrier - but it might mean that Cowley ends up building a wider variety of cars than just MINIs, while some MINIs might well be made on the continent.

BMW already make the Countryman in Austria and have a plant in the Netherlands making Hatches/convertibles and quite possibly clubman and apparently countryman too now.

Due to plant Oxford not having the room.

[Deptford Draylons]

zygalski said:

Deptford Draylons said:

///ajd still intently searching the Indy and Guardian for bad news Brexit, still posting speculation. Nearly a year on and you must be bursting to find a job loss story to say 'told you so'. This sounds like another repeat of when you were hoping Nissan would walk. Don't you get depressed hoping for bad news ?

Don't start putting out the bunting just yet. We have yet to negotiate the terms of our leaving. I would imagine many of the big investors in UK plc would make their decisions one way or the other only once the dust has begun to settle.

I'm not, but considering where we were told we would be by now, its rather a different situation to what you Remainers were sold. Surprised you aren't a bit angry on what you were falsely sold, but then the big red bus tourettes has served as a distraction for the more loony end of Remainers.
There will be job losses you can attribute to the Brexit decision, but as of yet its been hard to find a single one, apart from Cameron.
There will no doubt be discussion here when it does happen, but with ///ajd, he seems a little bit too keen and after nearly year of doom and gloom daily Indy and Guardian speculative articles, its getting a bit boring.

[anonymous-user]

I had a rather enjoyable meeting with my business bank manager today (Lloyds) I asked if they as company were making preparations for the lack of passporting and getting ready to shift to Paris or Brussels, he almost pissed himself laughing and looked at me like I was a loony!

'Erm no" was his answer "there are a lot of people saying stuff who shouldn't be and they should know better" was his answer

[Murph7355]

SidewaysSi said:

Seems like going to be a big hit to Financial Services and London...

Any particular reason or did you have dinner with MrrT tonight?

[JawKnee]

Tuna said:

///ajd said:

obviously didn't get the memo about turning into fishermen.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/782075/brexit-...

(ultra friendly media link, guardian not required)

So an American company that trades globally says that they have a contingency plan to increase headcount in Europe so that they can serve European clients with minimum of fuss after Brexit.

What's the news? After Brexit, I assume a number of UK companies will also be looking at more head count in Europe to increase trade. That's what trading globally looks like.

I'm not sure what you thought that item proved.

These jobs wouldn't be leaving if it wasn't for Brexit. If all companies start doing this as you say they will then we are going to see many many thousands of jobs leaving this country.

We've been stitched up.

[Troubleatmill]

JawKnee said:

These jobs wouldn't be leaving if it wasn't for Brexit. If all companies start doing this as you say they will then we are going to see many many thousands of jobs leaving this country.

We've been stitched up.

And yet..... since the Euro kicked in... many thousands of currency traders have been made redundant....

And being able to negotiate trade deals without being held hostage to some handful of farmers in the arse end of arse crack country who have a gripe about Italian tomatoes....

... you might just think... that we are going to be alright.

[WinstonWolf]

JawKnee said:

Tuna said:

///ajd said:

obviously didn't get the memo about turning into fishermen.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/782075/brexit-...

(ultra friendly media link, guardian not required)

So an American company that trades globally says that they have a contingency plan to increase headcount in Europe so that they can serve European clients with minimum of fuss after Brexit.

What's the news? After Brexit, I assume a number of UK companies will also be looking at more head count in Europe to increase trade. That's what trading globally looks like.

I'm not sure what you thought that item proved.

These jobs wouldn't be leaving if it wasn't for Brexit. If all companies start doing this as you say they will then we are going to see many many thousands of jobs leaving this country.

We've been stitched up.

I've not, I've made a tidy packet thanks to Brexit You must just be a bit st with money, like every other Labour voter...