The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[///ajd]

JawKnee said:

Tuna said:

///ajd said:

obviously didn't get the memo about turning into fishermen.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/782075/brexit-...

(ultra friendly media link, guardian not required)

So an American company that trades globally says that they have a contingency plan to increase headcount in Europe so that they can serve European clients with minimum of fuss after Brexit.

What's the news? After Brexit, I assume a number of UK companies will also be looking at more head count in Europe to increase trade. That's what trading globally looks like.

I'm not sure what you thought that item proved.

These jobs wouldn't be leaving if it wasn't for Brexit. If all companies start doing this as you say they will then we are going to see many many thousands of jobs leaving this country.

We've been stitched up.

It is surprising how some of the brexiteers don't seem to care.

Perhaps it is just a front or they daren't allow themselves to believe that their vote could have cost many many jobs. I suspect many didn't think the risks were real - indeed this is still a common mantra that it was all scaremongering. It wasn't though was it. Banks actively moving some operations can only be seen as bad news for the UK. Literally pissing away our GDP. That 1% the EU costs us already looks trivial.

And the idea that factories like the Mini plant will start making lots of different models just for the UK. Do they not teach economies of scale at school anymore? Still it is what Minford promised you.

[WinstonWolf]

///ajd said:

JawKnee said:

Tuna said:

///ajd said:

obviously didn't get the memo about turning into fishermen.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/782075/brexit-...

(ultra friendly media link, guardian not required)

So an American company that trades globally says that they have a contingency plan to increase headcount in Europe so that they can serve European clients with minimum of fuss after Brexit.

What's the news? After Brexit, I assume a number of UK companies will also be looking at more head count in Europe to increase trade. That's what trading globally looks like.

I'm not sure what you thought that item proved.

These jobs wouldn't be leaving if it wasn't for Brexit. If all companies start doing this as you say they will then we are going to see many many thousands of jobs leaving this country.

We've been stitched up.

It is surprising how some of the brexiteers don't seem to care.

Perhaps it is just a front or they daren't allow themselves to believe that their vote could have cost many many jobs. I suspect many didn't think the risks were real - indeed this is still a common mantra that it was all scaremongering. It wasn't though was it. Banks actively moving some operations can only be seen as bad news for the UK. Literally pissing away our GDP. That 1% the EU costs us already looks trivial.

And the idea that factories like the Mini plant will start making lots of different models just for the UK. Do they not teach economies of scale at school anymore? Still it is what Minford promised you.

Weren't you banging on about the FTSE on June 24th? Have you seen just how much my stocks and shares have risen by?

[Fastdruid]

While I understand the fear of lots of jobs being lost you can't claim that it is "news" that jobs would be lost and we should stop Brexit because of it because jobs being lost is *exactly* what was promised would happen! 3 million jobs wasn't it?

At the moment we're in a crazy situation where everyone and their dog has the best possible excuse to do anything unsavoury.

Company doing badly for the last 10 years and got to lay off workers. Brexit.
Pre-Referendum Planned factory move to East Europe for cheaper workers. Brexit
Want to get more concessions out of the Government. We're going to move thousands of jobs due to Brexit.
Wife left. Brexit
Dog Died. Brexit.

It's utterly wonderful, any bad news (especially if it relates to UK job losses) can be blamed on Brexit regardless of if it had anything to do with it.

Sure some companies will move some operations but the banks and large financial institutions are not going anywhere. They're making lots of noise about moving because the squeaky wheel gets the grease.

[don'tbesilly]

Fastdruid said:

While I understand the fear of lots of jobs being lost you can't claim that it is "news" that jobs would be lost and we should stop Brexit because of it because jobs being lost is *exactly* what was promised would happen! 3 million jobs wasn't it?

At the moment we're in a crazy situation where everyone and their dog has the best possible excuse to do anything unsavoury.

Company doing badly for the last 10 years and got to lay off workers. Brexit.
Pre-Referendum Planned factory move to East Europe for cheaper workers. Brexit
Want to get more concessions out of the Government. We're going to move thousands of jobs due to Brexit.
Wife left. Brexit
Dog Died. Brexit.

It's utterly wonderful, any bad news (especially if it relates to UK job losses) can be blamed on Brexit regardless of if it had anything to do with it.

Sure some companies will move some operations but the banks and large financial institutions are not going anywhere. They're making lots of noise about moving because the squeaky wheel gets the grease.

The banks have been moving staff to Paris/Frankfurt other major European cities since before the referendum, immediately after the referendum, and now the Govt is days away from invoking A50 their moving staff again!

Have any actually gone anywhere yet?

[Tuna]

JawKnee said:

These jobs wouldn't be leaving if it wasn't for Brexit. If all companies start doing this as you say they will then we are going to see many many thousands of jobs leaving this country.

We've been stitched up.

Yes, I'm sorry that some people may be moving jobs. It's never fun when that happens to you, and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

However, in the absence of a magic wand that stops anyone from loosing their job, ever, I'm going to look at the big picture and see whether the economy as a whole is improving, and whether Brexit can be negotiated in a way that helps this country prosper. Jobs will shift, to be sure, but they would anyway.

Remember, I'm no Brexiteer - I'm just taking the pragmatic view that we are in control of our own destiny right now. There is no evidence at all that staying would have saved those jobs. On the other hand:

Office For National Statistics said:

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2016 and the 3 months to January 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

There were 31.85 million people in work, 92,000 more than for August to October 2016 and 315,000 more than for a year earlier.

There were 23.34 million people working full-time, 305,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.52 million people working part-time, 10,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 1.58 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 31,000 fewer than for August to October 2016 and 106,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 867,000 unemployed men, 21,000 fewer than for August to October 2016 and 56,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 717,000 unemployed women, 10,000 fewer than for August to October 2016 and 50,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It has not been lower since June to August 1975. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed.

Do you care more about a handful of people working for an American company, or 305,000 newly employed people across the country?

Edited by Tuna on Tuesday 21st March 23:04

[///ajd]

Fastdruid said:

While I understand the fear of lots of jobs being lost you can't claim that it is "news" that jobs would be lost and we should stop Brexit because of it because jobs being lost is *exactly* what was promised would happen! 3 million jobs wasn't it?

At the moment we're in a crazy situation where everyone and their dog has the best possible excuse to do anything unsavoury.

Company doing badly for the last 10 years and got to lay off workers. Brexit.
Pre-Referendum Planned factory move to East Europe for cheaper workers. Brexit
Want to get more concessions out of the Government. We're going to move thousands of jobs due to Brexit.
Wife left. Brexit
Dog Died. Brexit.

It's utterly wonderful, any bad news (especially if it relates to UK job losses) can be blamed on Brexit regardless of if it had anything to do with it.

Sure some companies will move some operations but the banks and large financial institutions are not going anywhere. They're making lots of noise about moving because the squeaky wheel gets the grease.

If some Mini production migrates to the EU, it is quite possible it will be genuinely due to brexit.

That will be st result.

You can't make excuses or roll such news in glitter. It'll still be a turd-like outcome.

Want to stop that happening?

[Fastdruid]

don'tbesilly said:

Fastdruid said:

While I understand the fear of lots of jobs being lost you can't claim that it is "news" that jobs would be lost and we should stop Brexit because of it because jobs being lost is *exactly* what was promised would happen! 3 million jobs wasn't it?

At the moment we're in a crazy situation where everyone and their dog has the best possible excuse to do anything unsavoury.

Company doing badly for the last 10 years and got to lay off workers. Brexit.
Pre-Referendum Planned factory move to East Europe for cheaper workers. Brexit
Want to get more concessions out of the Government. We're going to move thousands of jobs due to Brexit.
Wife left. Brexit
Dog Died. Brexit.

It's utterly wonderful, any bad news (especially if it relates to UK job losses) can be blamed on Brexit regardless of if it had anything to do with it.

Sure some companies will move some operations but the banks and large financial institutions are not going anywhere. They're making lots of noise about moving because the squeaky wheel gets the grease.

The banks have been moving staff to Paris/Frankfurt other major European cities since before the referendum, immediately after the referendum, and now the Govt is days away from invoking A50 their moving staff again!

Have any actually gone anywhere yet?

I think they were counting staff going on holiday...

[Sway]

///ajd said:

It is surprising how some of the brexiteers don't seem to care.

Perhaps it is just a front or they daren't allow themselves to believe that their vote could have cost many many jobs. I suspect many didn't think the risks were real - indeed this is still a common mantra that it was all scaremongering. It wasn't though was it. Banks actively moving some operations can only be seen as bad news for the UK. Literally pissing away our GDP. That 1% the EU costs us already looks trivial.

And the idea that factories like the Mini plant will start making lots of different models just for the UK. Do they not teach economies of scale at school anymore? Still it is what Minford promised you.

You're absolutely right. My vote could have cost lots of jobs. So come yours. That's the unpredictability of life.

However, Mini is at full capacity, and no jobs have been lost - especially nothing like the number you posted which is more than the entire Mini plant and UK supply chain...

There also haven't been relocations in the finance sector. GS are posturing, and are clearly biased and trying to influence the negotiations - despite all the indicators showing that they probably don't need to. So far, all they're planning to do is spend some cash on renting some empty office space.

So it is scaremongering, and a lie when you try to make out banks are actively moving operations. They aren't. They're making plans in case they have to.

In the same way there are massive warehouses all across the country filled with desks and computer kit - contingency sites in case of an emergency that prevents, for example, 250 Bishopsgate being able to be used. Merely good business practice.

You actively want to be afraid. Every single opportunity to misunderstand the reality, or educate yourself on things like the basics of international trade (remember that beauty?) you actively seek the worst possible outcome.

Edinburger throws in squirrels in the ScotRef thread, you're Chicken Little.

[Sway]

///ajd said:

If some Mini production migrates to the EU, it is quite possible it will be genuinely due to brexit.

That will be st result.

You can't make excuses or roll such news in glitter. It'll still be a turd-like outcome.

Want to stop that happening?

I'll tell you what, I'll make a similar wager that I did another poster who refused until I shifted the odds in his favour - £500 that the Mini plant in Oxford remains at full capacity or expands over the next three years, barring major non-Brexit related financial crisis (such as the Euro stting a brick or Trump fking up the dollar).

If they lose staff, or drop production, you name the charity of choice for my deposit. If I win, the RNLI gets £500 of your cash.

Up for it? Or like the other poster, is the chance of your doomaggedon less than fifty/fifty?

[JawKnee]

Sway said:

You're absolutely right. My vote could have cost lots of jobs. So come yours. That's the unpredictability of life.

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

[sidicks]

JawKnee said:

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

Oh stop posting nonsense you absolute tt!

[don'tbesilly]

JawKnee said:

Sway said:

You're absolutely right. My vote could have cost lots of jobs. So come yours. That's the unpredictability of life.

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

Can you put a definitive number on the number of lost jobs and provide substantive evidence of such other than links to the Guardian/Independent/other pro EU media outlets

[Deptford Draylons]

JawKnee said:

Sway said:

You're absolutely right. My vote could have cost lots of jobs. So come yours. That's the unpredictability of life.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

These lost jobs ? So far the grand total of job loses numbers one, a Mr D Cameron of Chipping Norton.

[B'stard Child]

JawKnee said:

Sway said:

You're absolutely right. My vote could have cost lots of jobs. So come yours. That's the unpredictability of life.

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

I'll stand up

Because the future opportunity in a lifeboat at sea is brighter than shackled to a sinking ship

However until we get thro these short term issues and "noise" from the world and their wife we don't know exactly how it is really turning out

So I've stood up - I'll take my responsibility seriously just like I did with my vote however right now fella you are in absolutely no position to crow or throw st at me

In 5 years if I was wrong you can throw as much st as you like and I'll take it and make a sandwich

However be prepared to eat your own st sandwich

My favourite Corbyn quotes from you

JawKnee said:

He's a leader with balls. Just what this party needs.

JawKnee said:

The next government will be a Labour one.

JawKnee said:

Corbyn will do the job.

V6Pushfit said:

JawKnee said:

Do Labour voters actually believe that JC can lead? And lead them to a better future?

Yes, definitely.

JawKnee said:

Labour have won every by-election while Corbyn has been leader and increased their vote share in 75% of them. They fared better in the local elections than many were predicting. In May Labour were neck and neck with the Tories in the polls.

JawKnee said:

This leadership challenge has no doubt hurt the party's ratings but once it is over I fully expect the polls to narrow a great deal more.

JawKnee said:

Then roll on 2020. The way Theresa May is going, the next election will be a stroll in the park for Labour.

JawKnee said:

Labour will be in government in 2020.

JawKnee said:

Won all 4 by elections under Corbyn. Increasing vote share in 75% of them. Labour are serious. They will win in 2020.

If I'm wrong I'll eat mine - what about you?

[JawKnee]

sidicks said:

JawKnee said:

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

Oh stop posting nonsense you absolute tt!

Guilty conscience or do you secretly enjoy harming this country?

[Murph7355]

JawKnee said:

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

Are you not reading the contrary and/or additional details?

Presumably any job "losses" are all down to Brexit, and any job gains are....due to "something else"? Or factories running at capacity is not a valid reason for using alternative manufacturing facilities?

How old are you and what do you do for a living?

[B'stard Child]

Murph7355 said:

JawKnee said:

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

Are you not reading the contrary and/or additional details?

Presumably any job "losses" are all down to Brexit, and any job gains are....due to "something else"? Or factories running at capacity is not a valid reason for using alternative manufacturing facilities?

How old are you and what do you do for a living?

13 and just like another PH'r both are currently modelling pampers for lifestyle magazines

[sidicks]

JawKnee said:

Guilty conscience or do you secretly enjoy harming this country?

As with everything you post, the facts don't support your claims!

Office For National Statistics said:

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2016 and the 3 months to January 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

There were 31.85 million people in work, 92,000 more than for August to October 2016 and 315,000 more than for a year earlier.

There were 23.34 million people working full-time, 305,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.52 million people working part-time, 10,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 1.58 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 31,000 fewer than for August to October 2016 and 106,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 867,000 unemployed men, 21,000 fewer than for August to October 2016 and 56,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 717,000 unemployed women, 10,000 fewer than for August to October 2016 and 50,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It has not been lower since June to August 1975. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed.

Please stop being a whining little troll!

[JawKnee]

Murph7355 said:

JawKnee said:

Nope, this was all very predictable. The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they fked this country over.

These lost jobs are blood on your hands I'm afraid. Stand up and take responsibility.

Are you not reading the contrary and/or additional details?

Presumably any job "losses" are all down to Brexit, and any job gains are....due to "something else"? Or factories running at capacity is not a valid reason for using alternative manufacturing facilities?

How old are you and what do you do for a living?

The majority of jobs created are despite Brexit, not because of it. Inflation caused by our currency crashing has now caught up with wage inflation and looks to be overtaking it in the coming year which will hit the average worker in the pocket. Try telling those people how dandy everything is because the factories are a bit busier than usual...

I'm just about the right side of 30 and work as a Software Engineer. Yourself?

[brenflys777]

JawKnee said:

The majority of jobs created are despite Brexit, not because of it.

Any evidence or just faith that would shame a 7th day Advent Hoppist?