The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
///ajd said:
JawKnee said:
Tuna said:
///ajd said:
obviously didn't get the memo about turning into fishermen.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/782075/brexit-...
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So an American company that trades globally says that they have a contingency plan to increase headcount in Europe so that they can serve European clients with minimum of fuss after Brexit.http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/782075/brexit-...
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What's the news? After Brexit, I assume a number of UK companies will also be looking at more head count in Europe to increase trade. That's what trading globally looks like.
I'm not sure what you thought that item proved.
We've been stitched up.
Perhaps it is just a front or they daren't allow themselves to believe that their vote could have cost many many jobs. I suspect many didn't think the risks were real - indeed this is still a common mantra that it was all scaremongering. It wasn't though was it. Banks actively moving some operations can only be seen as bad news for the UK. Literally pissing away our GDP. That 1% the EU costs us already looks trivial.
And the idea that factories like the Mini plant will start making lots of different models just for the UK. Do they not teach economies of scale at school anymore? Still it is what Minford promised you.
B'stard Child said:
I had to google that......
And people worry about the religion of peace - if that took on the world would be really fecking weird
Faith, Hop & Charity.... silly, not like the sensible religions based on blind faith in a higher power that loves or smites depending on sexuality or the newer cults/religions/ways to make money off the gullible, based on CO2 emissions... And people worry about the religion of peace - if that took on the world would be really fecking weird
Deptford Draylons said:
JawKnee said:
Guilty conscience or do you secretly enjoy harming this country?
Says the man wanting Corbyn to be PM. Who is paying you to troll PH like this ???? I think even ///ajd wishes you two weren't aligned at the fanatical end of the Remainer camp. JawKnee said:
Yea he probably does to be fair. When it comes to Brexit though, nobody on this forum talks more sense than ///ajd. Wonderful to watch him tie many of the loons on here in knots oon a daily basis.
If ignorance is bliss...Ignore all the evidence that contradicts your claims and repeat the same nonsense over and over again!
And you're really almost 30 years old?
JawKnee said:
Deptford Draylons said:
JawKnee said:
Guilty conscience or do you secretly enjoy harming this country?
Says the man wanting Corbyn to be PM. Who is paying you to troll PH like this ???? I think even ///ajd wishes you two weren't aligned at the fanatical end of the Remainer camp. The other week it was convicted jailbird Dennis, then we had a guy who said he may open an office in Paris, that may employ a few people and wouldn't mean any unemployment or moving to his staff here in the UK - compelling stuff ! It didn't even give him the job loses he so craves.
Before moving on to BMW/Mini , I enjoyed his insight into the Nissan threat where he informed PH HMG would be compensating Nissan on a per car basis at a point where Nissan told them to. When asked about the legality of this, no word.
When Nissan not only said they were staying but increasing production, the next insight was into the deal May had done. We weren't told what that deal was, merely that it was a pay off because the Nissan boss smiled to awaiting photographers outside Number 10 . Its this level of insight and evidence that makes ///ajd and yourself top class PH thinkers to be listened to. I'm not totally sure either of you could tie knots in your own shoes, let alone on the complexity of Brexit.
JawKnee said:
Yea he probably does to be fair. When it comes to Brexit though, nobody on this forum talks more sense than ///ajd. Wonderful to watch him tie many of the loons on here in knots oon a daily basis.
Oh........All the time I've been defending you as not a troll.
Then you unmask yourself like that.
Dissappointed.
JawKnee said:
The majority of jobs created are despite Brexit, not because of it. Inflation caused by our currency crashing has now caught up with wage inflation and looks to be overtaking it in the coming year which will hit the average worker in the pocket. Try telling those people how dandy everything is because the factories are a bit busier than usual...
I'm just about the right side of 30 and work as a Software Engineer. Yourself?
Mid-40s programme director. I'm just about the right side of 30 and work as a Software Engineer. Yourself?
The rest is as expected. Everything negative is "Brexit", everything positive "despite Brexit". Post your evidence on both fronts please. I don't believe you have any which makes your opinion simply bias driven. Use the logic you have as a Software Engineer please and demonstrate what you're stating is fact based. If you perform job like you post on here you have more to worry about than CPI or Brexit.
Fastdruid said:
While I understand the fear of lots of jobs being lost you can't claim that it is "news" that jobs would be lost and we should stop Brexit because of it because jobs being lost is *exactly* what was promised would happen! 3 million jobs wasn't it?
At the moment we're in a crazy situation where everyone and their dog has the best possible excuse to do anything unsavoury.
Company doing badly for the last 10 years and got to lay off workers. Brexit.
Pre-Referendum Planned factory move to East Europe for cheaper workers. Brexit
Want to get more concessions out of the Government. We're going to move thousands of jobs due to Brexit.
Wife left. Brexit
Dog Died. Brexit.
It's utterly wonderful, any bad news (especially if it relates to UK job losses) can be blamed on Brexit regardless of if it had anything to do with it.
Sure some companies will move some operations but the banks and large financial institutions are not going anywhere. They're making lots of noise about moving because the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
This. Spot on.At the moment we're in a crazy situation where everyone and their dog has the best possible excuse to do anything unsavoury.
Company doing badly for the last 10 years and got to lay off workers. Brexit.
Pre-Referendum Planned factory move to East Europe for cheaper workers. Brexit
Want to get more concessions out of the Government. We're going to move thousands of jobs due to Brexit.
Wife left. Brexit
Dog Died. Brexit.
It's utterly wonderful, any bad news (especially if it relates to UK job losses) can be blamed on Brexit regardless of if it had anything to do with it.
Sure some companies will move some operations but the banks and large financial institutions are not going anywhere. They're making lots of noise about moving because the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
PurpleMoonlight said:
CPI is now 767% higher than immediately pre vote.
It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
Yes, but the subtext from the BoE, since the GFC, has been the 'fear' of lack of (sufficient) inflation.It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
We, the West, are wedded to growth, not only to sustain the huge Ponzi-like constructs of government debt and welfare obligations, but also to effectively erode debt through the denominator effect. This was always going to happen and the 2 to 3% inflation zone is Goldilocks territory and will be met with few, if any significant rises in base rate IMHO.
PurpleMoonlight said:
CPI is now 767% higher than immediately pre vote.
It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
"767%"!!!!!! My god everyone. That's a MASSIVE NUMBER. Buy tinned food, shotguns and deadbolt the door.It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
Looked at another way...
Inflation targets have been 2% for.... Years. This is pretty much the first time it's gone over that for over 3yrs I believe.
The government "needs" inflation. And I think we should regard it outstripping wage inflation as "soft austerity" (I'm still of the opinion that we haven't felt any meaningful austerity yet. That we still have a sizeable deficit seems to back that up). Over the long term this is less to do with Brexit and more to do with the way we have elected to balance things out economically IMO.
The government/BoE have tools at their disposal to manage this sort of thing. Let's see how they manage it.
(Ref food prices, it will be interesting to see what we do from March 2019 when we no longer have to be strangled by EU tariffs/subsidies
) PurpleMoonlight said:
CPI is now 767% higher than immediately pre vote.
It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
You keep your savings in cash? Fool. If your savings were in a decent fund you'd have made a packet since June It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
WinstonWolf said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
CPI is now 767% higher than immediately pre vote.
It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
You keep your savings in cash? Fool. If your savings were in a decent fund you'd have made a packet since June It's the highest since September 2013.
It's currently almost impossible to protect your cash savings from being eroded.
The economy appears to be holding up but people are soon going to suffer, if not already.
JawKnee said:
The public were warned this would happen but the Brexiters collectively stuck their fingers in their ears as they f
ked this country over.
Were they also warned that Toyota would invest a quarter of a billion pounds if we voted leave?ked this country over.Note that the Toyota investment is an actual real thing, whereas the Mini stuff you're going on about is a "perhaps if things don't go our way" story made up to try and influence Brexit negotiations.
Fastdruid said:
I read another article on this a couple of weeks ago, I don't think this one does a great job of explaining why it thinks Germany needs Britain so badly.As I understand it, Germany's banks, as a result of a large trade surplus with Euro zone countries are now owed a huge sum of money by weaker and potentially unstable banks in those other countries.
The idea put forward by the article is that much of this debit will never be repaid but, is that really true? Could an economic rebalancing in the Euro zone not occur resulting in a German trade surplus and thus gradually eroding this bad debt?
Essentially, what they are saying is that Germany is vulnerable to an economic shock, not that they are actually directly in trouble?
Article said:
In contrast, when a German exporter sells goods to a British importer, an asset is created on the balance sheet of a UK bank (normally) – and there is no impact on the Bundesbank at all.
This is the bit I don't understand.From what I can tell Britain doesn't use the TARGET2 system (because it's not in the Euro?) so, how is the settlement made? Surely there is still an asset created on the German banks books and a liability on the UK banks books?
Why is Britain's trade more important to Germany than the Euro zone nations? Simply because of the relative strength and vulnerability of our economies?
Edited by skahigh on Wednesday 22 March 09:34
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