The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Dr Jekyll]

Mrr T said:

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Even if we don't get an FTA with the EU the fall in the pound means it isn't an issue. What other trade agreements do we have to replace?

[Digga]

FN2TypeR said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

I keep hearing this from tanned PH company directors but none of them ever seem to be able to tell us what these fantastic new opportunities are.

You really can't imagine a scenario where free trade agreements open up greater possibilities for importers to reduce their costs? Or exporters to be newly competitive in foreign markets?

If someone is not an entrepreneurial, they will struggle with the concept of risk (even where there is potential reward) and will constantly fail to spot opportunities. It's simple.

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Other than that its just words and team leave have no idea.

Give 'em a call, no doubt they will be clamouring to sign you up.

Sure to be a role there for "chief naysayer and stick-in-the-mud".

[FiF]

Murph7355 said:

Burwood said:

The EU case for a divorce payment is tenuous at best. The facts are that the agreement (EU membership) is silent on a leaving countries obligations. It doesn't stop the EU from expecting more gravy but there is no basis in law. I can think of many analogies. Take council tax. It's a fee to reside in a particular county. Said payment funds projects spanning decades, pays pensions of current and past council staff. Are we levied with further taxes if we leave.

I suspect this £50B or part thereof will be on the table to effectively buy the deal we want. Fine by me.

There's a strong case for some degree of payment whether it's legally enshrined or not for a variety of reasons.

There will be projects and initiatives that we get material benefit from for starters. So as long as those benefits are clear and we are allowed a continued say commensurate to our funding then fair enough.

There will also be committed expenditure that we agreed to whose benefits may be less tangible. We should front up on this too if we agreed it.

Anything with no material benefit to us that is not yet committed should be off the cards totally. And looking at the way the EU budgets I expect this to be a large proportion of initiatives (I posted a link to an explanation of it previously).

Pensions of any politicians are a mess but I don't expect our mob to argue too hard about them as it would shine too strong a light on their own. I think covering the obligations of the UK MEPs is fine (we can cut those back later... As if ). But the rest should not be down to us. If they chose to have hundreds of lackies from the other states filling the ranks, then they can pay for them.

I'm even open to a bung for market access IF the net benefits can be conclusively proven. However I doubt they could be.

Will just leave this here. It's a long but illuminating read. Civitas:Myth and Paradox of the Single market You Will Need to download the pdf, as I say it's a long read, which in a way likens the miss-selling of the benefits to that associated with PPI, which 'offered borrowers protection that on closer inspection proved to be illusory, and at disproportionate cost. The evidence shows that the same might well be said of the Single Market.’


Btw, a warning, just when your pee has reached superheated temperatures and pressures, then you read appendix J covering the long list of lies from a very long list of culprits. Sadly this list of lies is not exhaustive, some real porkers continue to be told.

[Mrr T]

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

I keep hearing this from tanned PH company directors but none of them ever seem to be able to tell us what these fantastic new opportunities are.

Mrr T said:

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Other than that its just words and team leave have no idea.

So actually, your original post was just an excuse for a cheap dig at people with a different view from your own as, by your own admission, you can see that there will be new opportunities (irrespective of time frames).

My post was a request for our tanned PH CD to tell us what these fantastic opportunities are? New trade deal are opportunities they are not fantastic opportunities.

Just want team leave to give some real example of fantastic opportunities which will exist only because of brexit.

[paul789]

Cheers, yeah!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39378521

[Dr Jekyll]

Mrr T said:

My post was a request for our tanned PH CD to tell us what these fantastic opportunities are? New trade deal are opportunities they are not fantastic opportunities.

Just want team leave to give some real example of fantastic opportunities which will exist only because of brexit.

Opportunities to strike trade deals with any country in the world. To stop charging ludicrous tariffs on agricultural imports. To lift all import tariffs if we want to.

[turbobloke]

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

My post was a request for our tanned PH CD to tell us what these fantastic opportunities are? New trade deal are opportunities they are not fantastic opportunities.

Just want team leave to give some real example of fantastic opportunities which will exist only because of brexit.

Opportunities to strike trade deals with any country in the world. To stop charging ludicrous tariffs on agricultural imports. To lift all import tariffs if we want to.

Also if May looks in the mirror one day (not the daily) and realises she's a Tory PM then passes on the info to all her ministers, followed by adoption of a more urgent approach to lower corptax, higher incentives to stay / relocate here, lower not higher business rates, and a secure approach to energy security via a realistic energy policy, all without whining or meddling or fines from the EU, that wouild offer even greater opportunities.

[Mrr T]

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Even if we don't get an FTA with the EU the fall in the pound means it isn't an issue. What other trade agreements do we have to replace?

So the fall in the pound will offset turning the channel into a customs border, losing part of our FS business, closing the UK food export industry etc,etc. I think not.

According to Eureferendum today the EU has 440 trade or trade related agreements.

[FN2TypeR]

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Even if we don't get an FTA with the EU the fall in the pound means it isn't an issue. What other trade agreements do we have to replace?

The EU has various trade agreements with external nations that the UK is privy to due to its membership, how beneficial or important they are to the UK in terms of trade is another matter, I know that CETA was touted as a great thing by the UK Government who signed off on it well in advance of most other EU nations for example, perhaps they will try to replicate the deal post Brexit.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dr Jekyll said:

Opportunities to strike trade deals with any country in the world. To stop charging ludicrous tariffs on agricultural imports. To lift all import tariffs if we want to.

Can you guarantee these new trade deals will be better for the UK than the ones the EU negotiated?

[FN2TypeR]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Dr Jekyll said:

Opportunities to strike trade deals with any country in the world. To stop charging ludicrous tariffs on agricultural imports. To lift all import tariffs if we want to.

Can you guarantee these new trade deals will be better for the UK than the ones the EU negotiated?

It'll be better than the ones that the EU hasn't negotiated I'd wager.

[FiF]

FN2TypeR said:

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Even if we don't get an FTA with the EU the fall in the pound means it isn't an issue. What other trade agreements do we have to replace?

The EU has various trade agreements with external nations that the UK is privy to due to its membershiphow beneficial or important they are to the UK in terms of trade is another matter, I know that CETA was touted as a great thing by the UK Government who signed off on it well in advance of most other EU nations for example, perhaps they will try to replicate the deal post Brexit.

Bit in bold, as explained in the document linked a few posts above, the answer is not very beneficial, which is as polite as one can be about it.

[turbobloke]

Mrr T said:

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Even if we don't get an FTA with the EU the fall in the pound means it isn't an issue. What other trade agreements do we have to replace?

So the fall in the pound will offset turning the channel into a customs border, losing part of our FS business, closing the UK food export industry etc,etc. I think not.

That's a rather extreme position, one which appears to assume your own brand of Hard Brexit and no agreement for EU workers currently in the UK. Not realistic?

[turbobloke]

FiF said:

Bit in bold, as explained in the document linked a few posts above, the answer is not very beneficial, which is as polite as one can be about it.

Most interesting so far (link) thanks FiF.

[Dr Jekyll]

Mrr T said:

So the fall in the pound will offset turning the channel into a customs border, losing part of our FS business, closing the UK food export industry etc,etc. I think not.

According to Eureferendum today the EU has 440 trade or trade related agreements.

More specifically it has trade agreements with 30 odd countries. Sounds impressive but includes Albania, the Faroe Islands, Guernsey, Jersey, Monaco, San Marino, you get the general idea.

The most important ones are with South Korea Israel and Mexico. None with the US, China or India.

What does 'turning the channel into a customs border' even mean? We can still import what we like, and if the EU are so ignorant of the benefits of trade as to block our exports then why on earth would we want to be members in the first place.

Do you really see no virtue in getting FTAs with the US and/or China? Or in getting cheaper food?

[anonymous-user]

skahigh said:

London424 said:

The EU like to talk a lot about the liability side of the balance sheet. What do we think the Asset side looks like for the UK?

This is something that has continually confused me about the media coverage of this issue.

They portray is as an invoice with no tangible benefits but, surely a fair percentage of the 'bill' includes projects that the UK does and would continue to benefit from for the time period covered by the agreed funding?

Why do the media never mention this?

Because a large proportion of the money has been pissed up against the wall on projects that have no benefit to the UK. It's not cheap building infrastructure in Eastern and Southern Europe. It's not cheap supporting non financially viable regions. You never get that money back.

[Sway]

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

I keep hearing this from tanned PH company directors but none of them ever seem to be able to tell us what these fantastic new opportunities are.

You really can't imagine a scenario where free trade agreements open up greater possibilities for importers to reduce their costs? Or exporters to be newly competitive in foreign markets?

If someone is not an entrepreneurial, they will struggle with the concept of risk (even where there is potential reward) and will constantly fail to spot opportunities. It's simple.

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Other than that its just words and team leave have no idea.

I've asked you at least three times:

Why do you keep banging on about 7-8 years, especially when you conflate single market with FTA with the EU?

Canada has already stated as far as it's concerned, copy the FTA with the EU, replace EU with UK and break out the fountain pens.

There is no basis for stating that FTAs we already have will need to take any time longer than that to achieve. We already have mutual recognition of standards, and current tariff free trade.

That goes for our trade with the EU too - I've offered £50 quid on a general FTA including FS access between the EU and UK at the point of leaving...

[Burwood]

Why even bother Sway Err T has a biased agenda and it has nothing to do with economic success, trade deals or GDP. He's pissed because his family are European/non UK residents

[JawKnee]

Single Market access is "critical" says kipper.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-03-24/ukip-acce...

[Fastdruid]

JawKnee said:

Single Market access is "critical" says kipper.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-03-24/ukip-acce...

Access to not being in.