The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[crankedup]

Mrr T said:

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

So can you tell me which counties we will get fabulous opportunities from doing trade deals with, the poster I asked did not respond.

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

So which countries are these that the EU does not have deals with?

Major ones are:

China
India
Japan
Pakistan
Taiwan
USA

So that's something over 1/3rd of the worlds population right there.

Mrr T said:

So with world food prices lower than most UK food production costs how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

If it isn't economic why deal with it at all? If you do want to subsidise UK agriculture do so honestly not by tariffs that impoverish African farmers and low income UK consumers just to keep the French happy.
Maybe if subsidies were stopped UK agriculture would restructure to become economic as happened in New Zealand.

In any case, Swallows and Amazons rule applies.

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

Where did you find that info' ?
The Chinese love our quality goods wether that be textiles, cars, furniture, jewellery and so on. It's a growing market.
India is a massive market ready for our goods, it's a Country rapidly growing in its wealth status and its people love the UK.
USA have expressed strong interest in a trade deal.
erico is another Country that is rapidly growing in wealth and it's these Countries the UK will do well to strike trade deals with.
My glass is half full.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Sway said:

China, just my firm has exported nearly £200M, drop their import tariff and we could double it. That's one company, producing products the Chinese cannot make for themselves (and cannot gain the capability by buying our kit).

That would be their chosen WTO tariff.

[steveT350C]

Mrr T said:

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

China imported $1.68tn worth in 2015 = not interested in importing??

[Burwood]

steveT350C said:

Mrr T said:

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

China imported $1.68tn worth in 2015 = not interested in importing??

and the US is about 1T more again

[Sway]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

China, just my firm has exported nearly £200M, drop their import tariff and we could double it. That's one company, producing products the Chinese cannot make for themselves (and cannot gain the capability by buying our kit).

That would be their chosen WTO tariff.

Yes, and the context was what would we get out of a FTA... Do keep up.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Sway said:

Yes, and the context was what would we get out of a FTA... Do keep up.

We import twice as much from China as we export to them.

Who do you think will benefit the most from a FTA?

[s2art]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

Yes, and the context was what would we get out of a FTA... Do keep up.

We import twice as much from China as we export to them.

Who do you think will benefit the most from a FTA?

Both will benefit, otherwise an FTA wont happen. Who benefits most? Impossible to say at this point.

[Sway]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

Yes, and the context was what would we get out of a FTA... Do keep up.

We import twice as much from China as we export to them.

Who do you think will benefit the most from a FTA?

Both parties benefit from reduced local cost, and increased exports.

There doesn't always have to be a loser..

[Murph7355]

Mrr T said:

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

The only one of those you have any sort of point on is Pakistan.

Let us also not forget the opportunity to improve upon the deals the EU currently has once no longer having to factor in the desires of 27 other nations.

Much is made of the myriad deals the EU has, but go and look at who they are with. It's a joke generally.

Ref farmers, I'm fortunate enough to know a few. All of whom think CAP is a crock of st and has made many farmers across the EU lazy. They are relishing exiting. These also happen to be enterprising people who diversified (within the industry) years ago. I believe the general view is that apart from being wet nursed, British farmers are far from the biggest beneficiaries of EU policy.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Sway said:

Both parties benefit from reduced local cost, and increased exports.

There doesn't always have to be a loser..

Really?

You dont see any pitfalls with a FTA with China?

[Burwood]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

Both parties benefit from reduced local cost, and increased exports.

There doesn't always have to be a loser..

Really?

You dont see any pitfalls with a FTA with China?

there are always risks but looking at the landscape, we already buy a st load from them. we have no steel industry to protect. they can't compete with our cars. we won't buy their food. well some poor bds might.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Murph7355 said:

Let us also not forget the opportunity to improve upon the deals the EU currently has once no longer having to factor in the desires of 27 other nations.

Why does eveybody think we are disadvantaged by the other 27 and will get a better deal on our own?

Could we not benefit because of the better bargaining power of 28 as opposed to that of 1?

[turbobloke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Murph7355 said:

Let us also not forget the opportunity to improve upon the deals the EU currently has once no longer having to factor in the desires of 27 other nations.

Why does eveybody think we are disadvantaged by the other 27 and will get a better deal on our own?

Could we not benefit because of the better bargaining power of 28 as opposed to that of 1?

Murph7355's post covered that.

[Burwood]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Murph7355 said:

Let us also not forget the opportunity to improve upon the deals the EU currently has once no longer having to factor in the desires of 27 other nations.

Why does eveybody think we are disadvantaged by the other 27 and will get a better deal on our own?

Could we not benefit because of the better bargaining power of 28 as opposed to that of 1?

you mean wading through the machinations of 27 as opposed to 1.

[Dr Jekyll]

Mrr T said:

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

So can you tell me which counties we will get fabulous opportunities from doing trade deals with, the poster I asked did not respond.

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

So which countries are these that the EU does not have deals with?

Major ones are:

China
India
Japan
Pakistan
Taiwan
USA

So that's something over 1/3rd of the worlds population right there.

Mrr T said:

So with world food prices lower than most UK food production costs how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

If it isn't economic why deal with it at all? If you do want to subsidise UK agriculture do so honestly not by tariffs that impoverish African farmers and low income UK consumers just to keep the French happy.
Maybe if subsidies were stopped UK agriculture would restructure to become economic as happened in New Zealand.

In any case, Swallows and Amazons rule applies.

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

How else to answer the question 'which countries does the EU not have deals with' other than a list?

Incidentally all countries in the long run import just as much as they export. The balance of trade balances, that's why it's called a balance. What's the point of the Chinese collecting billions of UK pounds for their exports if not to spend them?
And where do you think they can spend them? Clue, begins with U.

[anonymous-user]

Sway said:

China, just my firm has exported nearly £200M, drop their import tariff and we could double it. That's one company, producing products the Chinese cannot make for themselves (and cannot gain the capability by buying our kit).

These markets buy a vast amount, much that they either do not produce themselves, or their local industry makes inferior or more expensive.

Look at JLR's exports to the US and China...

High quality, well branded goods sell very well in most of those nations.

Oh, and don't forget Nissan Sunderland and Honda Swindon export to Japan.

Total agree - Japan imported c$10bn just in iPhones last year - so yes they will import a lot of stuff, they imported about $100m just in Scottish whisky.

[anonymous-user]

Burwood said:

Not so much sector driven but restructuring. I've done hotels, airlines, Unilever. The Unilever highlight-free magnums

As a personal observation, Arla looks like it must do well. A lactose intolerance with a family member saw the buying of all sorts of lactose free milk, cheese, cream and Arla do the lot.

It's interesting that Fonterra, NZs largest company actually accounts for 25% of the countries export earnings. A staggering stat

Edited by Burwood on Friday 24th March 16:25

In a similar vein, Samsung was c 25% of the GDP of South Korea

[Dr Jekyll]

Mrr T said:

USA - Only interesting in exporting

Just noticed this one, Britain's biggest export market isn't interested in importing.

[maffski]

Mrr T said:

maffski said:

Mrr T said:

...how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

The same way you deal with anything that is no longer economic? By not doing it.

So the leave team big idea is to close down British farming?

Lets put it this way. If agriculture can only survive by subsidy (either direct to producers or tariffs on imports) than that money must be coming from people that aren't agricultural producers.

So if we stop the subsidy we get richer.

If they improve to remain competitive without the subsidy we also get richer.

If they give up farming and go and do other jobs we get richer - given that these other jobs were the ones previously paying the subsidy and so must be more productive.

There is no way in which removing agricultural subsidies makes us poorer.

[///ajd]

Burwood said:

i'm not vaguely interested in the EU aiding or defeating the steel industry. My mistake if i posted a bad article.

Paying that money for access to the SM is a bad deal in my opinion. I'm happy to take any wager that our GDP will be higher in 3 years that it is today. Unemployment lower. Any metric you want.

Of course GDP is likely to grow - the brexit question is will it grow as fast? Will we still outperform our EU friends?

Any metric you want?

I'd propose relative GDP performance with EU Nations.

Benchmark - 1995-2005 - a key period whilst in the EU, but ignoring the 2008 financial crash.

US dollars (billions)
France - GDP went from 1597 to 2182 - growth of around 4%/year
UK - GDP went from 1199 to 2352 - growth of 9.5%/year

Lets round that down and say in this period, in the EU, our GDP was growing over twice as fast as France.

Any metric you want? Lets check that our GDP still grows twice as fast - on average - as France over the next 5 years, like it did when we were in the EU. Anything less will be a brexit driven failure - after all, any change must be down to leaving the EU!