The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[CaptainSlow]

We're rich, we're richer. The youngsters can't afford to buy houses though, I can't get a Doctor's appointment and my commute has doubled in time.

...but we're rich!!

[s2art]

///ajd said:

UK - GDP went from 1199 to 2352 - growth of 9.5%/year

The UK had 9.5% growth per year for a decade? Care to back that up with a source?

[powerstroke]

CaptainSlow said:

We're rich, we're richer. The youngsters can't afford to buy houses though, I can't get a Doctor's appointment and my commute has doubled in time.

...but we're rich!!

Yep , wonders why the london lot are so upset about Brexit ?? stupid train fares to a job in the smoke and struggling to buy to some home in a dreadful suburb
you would think they would like the economy to slow a bit so they could catch their breath ...
give me quality of life and stick the economy ....

[Rich_W]

CaptainSlow said:

We're rich, we're richer. The youngsters can't afford to buy houses though, I can't get a Doctor's appointment and my commute has doubled in time.

...but we're rich!!

It was like this for the last 20 fking years! You can blame Blair for that! Brexit has made no difference either way.

[///ajd]

s2art said:

///ajd said:

UK - GDP went from 1199 to 2352 - growth of 9.5%/year

The UK had 9.5% growth per year for a decade? Care to back that up with a source?

Average values of GDP (nominal) by every half decade from the available data in IMF, World Bank, and United Nations lists (in USD billions)

Here is the graph - hover over 1995 and 2005:

GB & FR

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

You can see FR was ahead of us until we joined the club in the 1970s - after which we consistently out dragged them - whilst in the EU - until the financial crash when it all went a bit Pete Tong. Don4l always hated these stats - they were very inconvenient for kippers.


Plus

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/we...

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp

Edited by ///ajd on Friday 24th March 21:37

Edited by ///ajd on Friday 24th March 22:16

[paul789]

///ajd said:

Burwood said:

i'm not vaguely interested in the EU aiding or defeating the steel industry. My mistake if i posted a bad article.

Paying that money for access to the SM is a bad deal in my opinion. I'm happy to take any wager that our GDP will be higher in 3 years that it is today. Unemployment lower. Any metric you want.

Of course GDP is likely to grow

That's not necessarily a given. Does this now mean that you're coming round to the idea that things might work out? I hope so too. GDP growth is the key to everything - and if we have that, we can make it work.

[///ajd]

paul789 said:

///ajd said:

Burwood said:

i'm not vaguely interested in the EU aiding or defeating the steel industry. My mistake if i posted a bad article.

Paying that money for access to the SM is a bad deal in my opinion. I'm happy to take any wager that our GDP will be higher in 3 years that it is today. Unemployment lower. Any metric you want.

Of course GDP is likely to grow

That's not necessarily a given. Does this now mean that you're coming round to the idea that things might work out? I hope so too. GDP growth is the key to everything - and if we have that, we can make it work.

The debate was never about it growing - but whether it would grow faster if we remain or leave. The faster it grows the better off we all are - and the more prepared we'll be to fund our pensions and NHS etc.

Clearly there are times like the financial crash when GDP can dip - but these affected pretty much every nation in the world. The key is our relative performance - and the test is against those countries like us that remain in the EU - that is the acid test of whether we'll be better off or not.

The UK will survive, that has never been in doubt, and we'll grow. But it is more likely than not - in my opinion - that we'd all have been richer with better services staying in. That view won't change because of all the analysis that surrounds what will happen. Inflation and the currency dip have pretty much exactly matched the pre ref predictions.

[s2art]

///ajd said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

UK - GDP went from 1199 to 2352 - growth of 9.5%/year

The UK had 9.5% growth per year for a decade? Care to back that up with a source?

Average values of GDP (nominal) by every half decade from the available data in IMF, World Bank, and United Nations lists (in USD billions)

Here is the graph - hover over 1995 and 2005:

GB & FR

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

You can see FR was ahead of us until we joined the club in the 1970s - after which we consistently out dragged them - whilst in the EU - until the financial crash when it all went a bit Pete Tong. Don4l always hated these stats - they were very inconvenient for kippers.


Plus

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/we...

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp

Edited by ///ajd on Friday 24th March 21:37

Right.So go to the GDP growth chart. The UK grew at between 2-3.5% (approx, varying year to year) during that decade. And that is only because we were recovering from the ERM fiasco in 1991 (see the big dip?). Long term GDP trend for the UK is between 2 and 3%.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

A Taiwanese company flew me to Taiwan and put me up in a top hotel for a week so I could offer them advice on how to look after their imported British products, they tried to recruit me to relocate to Taipei and run the operation.

But yeh, Taiwan are not interested in importing British goods.

[///ajd]

s2art said:

Right.So go to the GDP growth chart. The UK grew at between 2-3.5% (approx, varying year to year) during that decade. And that is only because we were recovering from the ERM fiasco in 1991 (see the big dip?). Long term GDP trend for the UK is between 2 and 3%.

You can argue the % and the times to look at.

Bottom line - we performed well in the EU relative to our peers. Look how we compare to FR since the 1970s. Look how we were worse before.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

Now with all these fantastic opportunities for free trade with x, y, z, we'll zoom off even faster, yes?

[davepoth]

crankedup said:

Where did you find that info' ?
The Chinese love our quality goods wether that be textiles, cars, furniture, jewellery and so on. It's a growing market.
India is a massive market ready for our goods, it's a Country rapidly growing in its wealth status and its people love the UK.
USA have expressed strong interest in a trade deal.
erico is another Country that is rapidly growing in wealth and it's these Countries the UK will do well to strike trade deals with.
My glass is half full.

I'd love to know where Mrr T got his info from too, since it's total BS. A lot of the countries listed are very good at exporting commodity products, and a lot of people in those countries have become reasonably wealthy and want to buy nice things with their money. Those expanding middle classes (especially India) represent an enormous opportunity for the UK. My cup runneth over.

[s2art]

///ajd said:

s2art said:

Right.So go to the GDP growth chart. The UK grew at between 2-3.5% (approx, varying year to year) during that decade. And that is only because we were recovering from the ERM fiasco in 1991 (see the big dip?). Long term GDP trend for the UK is between 2 and 3%.

You can argue the % and the times to look at.

Bottom line - we performed well in the EU relative to our peers. Look how we compare to FR since the 1970s. Look how we were worse before.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

Now with all these fantastic opportunities for free trade with x, y, z, we'll zoom off even faster, yes?

According to the chart we performed similarly to France before joining the EEC then got worse, only overtaking France again in the late 1990's. Probably as a result of getting out of the ERM.

Edited by s2art on Friday 24th March 23:27

[Murph7355]

///ajd said:

You can argue the % and the times to look at.

Bottom line - we performed well in the EU relative to our peers. Look how we compare to FR since the 1970s. Look how we were worse before.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

Now with all these fantastic opportunities for free trade with x, y, z, we'll zoom off even faster, yes?

Aaaaaaannnnnnnndddddd.....

Now put

- USA
- Japan
- China

...on that chart.

Whack a bundle of others on there to see who's growing fastest too

Nothing's changed since before the referendum. No one can prove we would not have done better outside the EU over that same period.

[Ridgemont]

///ajd said:

s2art said:

Right.So go to the GDP growth chart. The UK grew at between 2-3.5% (approx, varying year to year) during that decade. And that is only because we were recovering from the ERM fiasco in 1991 (see the big dip?). Long term GDP trend for the UK is between 2 and 3%.

You can argue the % and the times to look at.

Bottom line - we performed well in the EU relative to our peers. Look how we compare to FR since the 1970s. Look how we were worse before.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

Now with all these fantastic opportunities for free trade with x, y, z, we'll zoom off even faster, yes?

I've said before and I'll say again you really are an utter troll. Bright enough to spin all sorts of nonsense together but when poked you're like a bad soufflé.

The only correlation here is with exchange rates and specifically that over valuing of the pound. The EU may or not have had beneficial effects but claiming that our export record was as a result of the EU is errant nonsense.

The fundamental issue has been the overvaluing of the pound. I could summon up the appropriate charts but the the export performance of the UK has been largely related to the relative value of the pound. If a government attempts fixed exchange rates (bretton woods and the erm) then it's a simple law of economics: the terms of trade suffer.

The issues with the British economy prior to the eighties were largely due to a government policy inherited from ww2. Exchange rate control and a resulting lack of competativeness.

It may be that the future continues to give us an overvalued pound but it will likely be for reasons of confidence in the U.K. Economy as opposed to being currently the least worst option in the EU group, and therefore being 15- 18% overvalued thus killing our competiveness.

[LasseV]

I don't know why, but after that vote there has been made quite a lot of international investments to Finland. They bring thousands of new jobs. It may or it may not be related to brexit vote. But it is hard for me to believe that finland could compete against UK in car manufacturing business if the UK would stay in EU. Now there has been massive investments in car manufacturing business. They come up late last year and early this year, in a country who has build only a few saabs in it's history. And other investments are important too, funnily enough Rolls Royce did set up their maritime research centre in finland few weeks ago. It was 230 million € investment and brings hundreds of new jobs.

Maybe UK is actually loosing little bit of ground at the moment and we are the ones who gains.

[hyphen]

LasseV said:

, funnily enough Rolls Royce did set up their maritime research centre in finland few weeks ago. It was 230 million € investment and brings hundreds of new jobs.

Maybe UK is actually loosing little bit of ground at the moment and we are the ones who gains.

How much of this 230 million Euros was funded by a grant from the Finnish innovation fund, Tekes?

[vonuber]

One good thing from Brexit is that pret- who employ mainly eu nationals- have realised they need to de-risk brecht and so are offering some decent, well paid training and experience to teenagers.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/25/p...

Oh no, wait - it's a weeks free labour.

[Oakey]

They must have got the idea from Subway who were advertising for 'Apprentice Sandwich Artists' earlier this week for £3.50 an hour

[PRTVR]

LasseV said:

I don't know why, but after that vote there has been made quite a lot of international investments to Finland. They bring thousands of new jobs. It may or it may not be related to brexit vote. But it is hard for me to believe that finland could compete against UK in car manufacturing business if the UK would stay in EU. Now there has been massive investments in car manufacturing business. They come up late last year and early this year, in a country who has build only a few saabs in it's history. And other investments are important too, funnily enough Rolls Royce did set up their maritime research centre in finland few weeks ago. It was 230 million € investment and brings hundreds of new jobs.

Maybe UK is actually loosing little bit of ground at the moment and we are the ones who gains.

RR is a global company, it has manufacturing plants in Finland, marine thrusters and control systems, it is investing in the future of these plants, nothing to do with Brexit.

[Murph7355]

LasseV said:

I don't know why, but after that vote there has been made quite a lot of international investments to Finland. They bring thousands of new jobs. It may or it may not be related to brexit vote. But it is hard for me to believe that finland could compete against UK in car manufacturing business if the UK would stay in EU. Now there has been massive investments in car manufacturing business. They come up late last year and early this year, in a country who has build only a few saabs in it's history. And other investments are important too, funnily enough Rolls Royce did set up their maritime research centre in finland few weeks ago. It was 230 million € investment and brings hundreds of new jobs.

Maybe UK is actually loosing little bit of ground at the moment and we are the ones who gains.

It maybe.

But then investment is being made in the UK car industry too.

More detailed data would be needed to identify causation rather than correlation.