The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

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PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Mrr T said:
I cannot see any data to support your contention. Can you confirm where the data comes from?

It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Hard brexit would devastate Bridlington and its booming shellfish industry too.

And yet we are confidently told that is what they "all" voted for.

I'm not so sure a hard brexit that would cripple their seafood exports is what they were promised by Farage as he sailed up the Thames. No wonder he did a runner.
I find it amazing that you believe that once exit happens all trade will stop,people will still go on buying things from all over the world in the EU or out,do you think RR will stop selling engine's to Airbus, seafood may have a tariff on it but if our exchange rate stayed the same as it is now it would offset it, nobody knows what deal we will end up with, so all your oh my god we are doomed statements are doing is make you look silly, but hey if that's what you want carry on, it's giving a lot of people a laugh.

B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
Roman Rhodes said:
Except they weren't "cherry-picked by the newspaper", nor was it about the "short-term impact of Brexit".

Do you know anything about the survey - other than you don't like it because the results don't support your view?
That's not a bad period of lurking to then "pop your cherry" on a "Brexit" post

Can't say I agree with your viewpoint but it's early days and you've yet to be proven as an "exceptional new contributor" like "Trabi601" or "Jawknee" where I'd be inclined towards voting to keep you - so I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt.

walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Regardless, the 17% response rate suggests a very high rate of self-selection, hence with such a small sample size means the results can be taken with a large pinch of salt.
No - there is 639 in the sample size - that's what matters.

How those 639 were selected (self or otherwise) only matters if the method of selection somehow has an influence on their ability to answer the survey objectively.

Unless you can prove that economists too busy to fill in the survey are some how better qualified/less biased/more reliable somehow than those who chose to fill it in.

It's not a small sample size - it's absolutely massive.
For example, in my line of work we rely heavily on the YouGov surveys for all sorts of consumer surveys.
They have around N=2,000.

sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
walm said:
No - there is 639 in the sample size - that's what matters.

How those 639 were selected (self or otherwise) only matters if the method of selection somehow has an influence on their ability to answer the survey objectively.

Unless you can prove that economists too busy to fill in the survey are some how better qualified/less biased/more reliable somehow than those who chose to fill it in.

It's not a small sample size - it's absolutely massive.
For example, in my line of work we rely heavily on the YouGov surveys for all sorts of consumer surveys.
They have around N=2,000.
rofl

///ajd

8,964 posts

205 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
I find it amazing that you believe that once exit happens all trade will stop,people will still go on buying things from all over the world in the EU or out,do you think RR will stop selling engine's to Airbus, seafood may have a tariff on it but if our exchange rate stayed the same as it is now it would offset it, nobody knows what deal we will end up with, so all your oh my god we are doomed statements are doing is make you look silly, but hey if that's what you want carry on, it's giving a lot of people a laugh.
The official trade associations for UK seafood want to avoid tariffs and barriers.

Are you mocking/laughing at them?

No doubt you probably are. Who looks silly?

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Mrr T said:
I cannot see any data to support your contention. Can you confirm where the data comes from?

It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Hard brexit would devastate Bridlington and its booming shellfish industry too.

And yet we are confidently told that is what they "all" voted for.

I'm not so sure a hard brexit that would cripple their seafood exports is what they were promised by Farage as he sailed up the Thames. No wonder he did a runner.
Guess you missed it the first/second time, here it is for the third time:

Britain's leading shellfish port:
Bridlington - East Riding of Yorkshire. Voted leave 60.4%.

Leading UK fishing ports:

Fleetwood - Wyre district. Voted leave 63.8%.

Grimsby N/E Lincolnshire. Voted leave 69.9%. Was the largest fishing port in the world

Whitby - Scarborough. Voted leave 62%.

Lowestoft - Suffolk. Voted leave 53%.

Brixham - Torbay. Voted leave 63.2%.

Newlyn - Cornwall. Voted leave 56.5%.

alfie2244

11,292 posts

187 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all

B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
Mrr T said:
I cannot see any data to support your contention. Can you confirm where the data comes from?

It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Hard brexit would devastate Bridlington and its booming shellfish industry too.

And yet we are confidently told that is what they "all" voted for.

I'm not so sure a hard brexit that would cripple their seafood exports is what they were promised by Farage as he sailed up the Thames. No wonder he did a runner.
Guess you missed it the first/second time, here it is for the third time:

Britain's leading shellfish port:
Bridlington - East Riding of Yorkshire. Voted leave 60.4%.

Leading UK fishing ports:

Fleetwood - Wyre district. Voted leave 63.8%.

Grimsby N/E Lincolnshire. Voted leave 69.9%. Was the largest fishing port in the world

Whitby - Scarborough. Voted leave 62%.

Lowestoft - Suffolk. Voted leave 53%.

Brixham - Torbay. Voted leave 63.2%.

Newlyn - Cornwall. Voted leave 56.5%.
But.......

1) They didn't know what they were voting for (because stupid).
2) They wanted to get the Foreign fishermen (and women) out of their port (because Racist)
3) They wanted control of our fishing grounds (because fishermen)
4) They don't like the Eurovision Song Contest (because who the heck does)

PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
PRTVR said:
I find it amazing that you believe that once exit happens all trade will stop,people will still go on buying things from all over the world in the EU or out,do you think RR will stop selling engine's to Airbus, seafood may have a tariff on it but if our exchange rate stayed the same as it is now it would offset it, nobody knows what deal we will end up with, so all your oh my god we are doomed statements are doing is make you look silly, but hey if that's what you want carry on, it's giving a lot of people a laugh.
The official trade associations for UK seafood want to avoid tariffs and barriers.

Are you mocking/laughing at them?

No doubt you probably are. Who looks silly?
Everybody wants tariff free trade, are you going to quote all sectors of the economy,
They may not get it, that's life, the UK is leaving the EU, the decision has been made, quoting various business interests matters not, but if it makes you feel good carry on.

FiF

43,964 posts

250 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
Why do we put up with this "they all voted for a hard Brexit" twaddle. Bare faced divisive lies. No they didn't, there was nothing in the voting paper, it was leave or remain, we've had multiple images of the voting paper posted.

There were no choices as to type of exit, just as there were no choices as to type of Remain, be it, yeah go full EU, Schengen and Euro as fast as we can, through that but at a slower pace, through everything as it is now, or as it is now but with Cameron's reforms, or well it really needs to reform but we can achieve that reform better from within, all the way to "well it's really quite a bit st but omg the prospect of anything else per Project Fear is just too much to contemplate." Which of those did the Remainers vote for, nobody knows.

Likewise nobody knows what Leavers voted for in the method of exit, except you all know what my proposed exit route was and still is. On balance a majority voted to Leave, and it's now the job of the Government, the nation and the EU and the rEU nations to achieve an exit that serves the largest proportion of people and businesses the best.

The tribalistic twaddle that started with post 5 on this thread needs to be calmed down.

B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
alfie2244 said:
OK I clicked - fk it - second Guardian link I've clicked on in the last month!!! I like eggs and if the price of eggs are gonna rise because of Brexit then I'll have to reconsider my number of reasons to "remain" and increase it to 12...... (Long way to go to top 273 to Leave so be a while before I decide I made the wrong decision wink)

Then I looked and links to other stories

Price should have gone up by now - story dates back to June 2016

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/201...

Still good to see Quality establishments in the media doing their bit for recycling - why do people read the Guardian again - 6 fking months late with a news story - they'll be announcing the results of a referendum next week!!!!

Slasher is gonna st the bed when that news comes out!!!!

///ajd

8,964 posts

205 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
Mrr T said:
I cannot see any data to support your contention. Can you confirm where the data comes from?

It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Hard brexit would devastate Bridlington and its booming shellfish industry too.

And yet we are confidently told that is what they "all" voted for.

I'm not so sure a hard brexit that would cripple their seafood exports is what they were promised by Farage as he sailed up the Thames. No wonder he did a runner.
Guess you missed it the first/second time, here it is for the third time:

Britain's leading shellfish port:
Bridlington - East Riding of Yorkshire. Voted leave 60.4%.

Leading UK fishing ports:

Fleetwood - Wyre district. Voted leave 63.8%.

Grimsby N/E Lincolnshire. Voted leave 69.9%. Was the largest fishing port in the world

Whitby - Scarborough. Voted leave 62%.

Lowestoft - Suffolk. Voted leave 53%.

Brixham - Torbay. Voted leave 63.2%.

Newlyn - Cornwall. Voted leave 56.5%.
But.......

1) They didn't know what they were voting for (because stupid).
2) They wanted to get the Foreign fishermen (and women) out of their port (because Racist)
3) They wanted control of our fishing grounds (because fishermen)
4) They don't like the Eurovision Song Contest (because who the heck does)
I think they were promised tariff free trade by many, weren't they?

Lots of promises about German cars and no way there would be any tariffs.

I suspect a fair few brexiteers thought that was what could be delivered.






B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
Mrr T said:
I cannot see any data to support your contention. Can you confirm where the data comes from?

It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Hard brexit would devastate Bridlington and its booming shellfish industry too.

And yet we are confidently told that is what they "all" voted for.

I'm not so sure a hard brexit that would cripple their seafood exports is what they were promised by Farage as he sailed up the Thames. No wonder he did a runner.
Guess you missed it the first/second time, here it is for the third time:

Britain's leading shellfish port:
Bridlington - East Riding of Yorkshire. Voted leave 60.4%.

Leading UK fishing ports:

Fleetwood - Wyre district. Voted leave 63.8%.

Grimsby N/E Lincolnshire. Voted leave 69.9%. Was the largest fishing port in the world

Whitby - Scarborough. Voted leave 62%.

Lowestoft - Suffolk. Voted leave 53%.

Brixham - Torbay. Voted leave 63.2%.

Newlyn - Cornwall. Voted leave 56.5%.
But.......

1) They didn't know what they were voting for (because stupid).
2) They wanted to get the Foreign fishermen (and women) out of their port (because Racist)
3) They wanted control of our fishing grounds (because fishermen)
4) They don't like the Eurovision Song Contest (because who the heck does)
I think they were promised tariff free trade by many, weren't they?
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."

///ajd

8,964 posts

205 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."
Do you think that is what they expect to happen?

Stock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bullst story, its a practical marine biology issue.

How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?

B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."
Do you think that is what they expect to happen?

Stock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bullst story, its a practical marine biology issue.
Is throwing dead fish back into the sea stock management?? If it is then Hey Zues Christ - 10 years in logistics I've been doing it all wrong!!!

///ajd said:
How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
What Tarrifs and Barriers???

We have the square root of fk all knowledge on the terms of agreement

Is this your theme for the month?

Last month "the Poor"

This month "Fishermen"

How about I do my next reason - then you can sympathise with the poor MEP's affected by Brexit (in about 2 years)

Reason to leave 15 - "It means the end of MEP's from the UK - and yes I include all the ones from UKIP"

If I'd thought about it I could have done 12 days of Christmas reasons to leave biglaugh





PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."
Do you think that is what they expect to happen?

Stock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bullst story, its a practical marine biology issue.

How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
No industry should have any more say than any individual, what you are talking about is anarchy, the decision was made, we are leaving if we get a good deal great, if we don't business will have to deal with it, the list of industries and counties that wanted us to remain was long, but still the vote was for leave, the case was put and rejected.

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."
How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
They voted to Leave the EU despite what their industry told them prior to the referendum, why do you think the fishermen did that?

B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."
How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
They voted to Leave the EU despite what their industry told them prior to the referendum, why do you think the fishermen did that?
Done that 8 posts up at time of reply - please keep up silly........

don'tbesilly

13,900 posts

162 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
No idea what they were told but but reason to leave Number 14 fits right in here "Fishing - it's crazy to throw dead fish back into the sea because it's not the right fish…."
How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
They voted to Leave the EU despite what their industry told them prior to the referendum, why do you think the fishermen did that?
Done that 8 posts up at time of reply - please keep up silly........


Have an early Xmas present, you're beginning to warm to these wink:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/07/b...

///ajd

8,964 posts

205 months

Thursday 22nd December 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
They voted to Leave the EU despite what their industry told them prior to the referendum, why do you think the fishermen did that?
They were promised no impact on our single market conditions, tariff/barrier free access etc. Germans won't want tariffs etc. Anyone who warned about tariffs was roundly mocked.

Maybe we will get a reasonable tariff / barrier free trade deal with the EU - lets hope so as we certainly need one.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/am...



Edited by ///ajd on Thursday 22 December 21:12

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