The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

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Tryke3

1,609 posts

94 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
nute said:
Nice little pissing match going on here.

A lot of people voted in or out based on either very little, or flawed knowledge.

My wife is the FD of a UK company which manufacture consumer electronics. Almost all of the components they buy are priced in USD to the tune of about $80 million pa. Not expecting an out vote she was rather shell shocked the next day at work. The result was the main topic of discussion in the office and when she mentioned that it was going to be a nightmare for the company several who freely admitted to voting out were completely confused as to why.

She explained that input costs had just shot up and end sale costs are pretty much fixed so the difference has to come from somewhere, i.e. staff. She said it was like watching little light bulbs come on above their heads followed by "oh, i never thought of that".

The UK is a net importer of many many things including some pretty basic essentials such as food and power. We run a huge trade deficit therefore like it or not prices are going up, inflation is going up and we face an extended period of uncertainty over our trading position. Investors don't like uncertainty and neither does big business.

Whatever happens isn't going to affect me much as I'm fairly secure financially but I can't help thinking that 10 years down the road the younger generation are gong to curse those who voted us out.
You and your elitist wife have no place in brexit island. Pack your bags and go and live in liberal europe you ignorant champagne socialists. hehe

Denmark, our little brother have said they would reject any deals that harm the Eu. There you go, brexit love all over europe. We have no idea what we got into

Hate what this country has become

dandarez

13,287 posts

283 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
nute said:
Nice little pissing match going on here.

A lot of people voted in or out based on either very little, or flawed knowledge.

My wife is the FD of a UK company which manufacture consumer electronics. Almost all of the components they buy are priced in USD to the tune of about $80 million pa. Not expecting an out vote she was rather shell shocked the next day at work. The result was the main topic of discussion in the office and when she mentioned that it was going to be a nightmare for the company several who freely admitted to voting out were completely confused as to why.

She explained that input costs had just shot up and end sale costs are pretty much fixed so the difference has to come from somewhere, i.e. staff. She said it was like watching little light bulbs come on above their heads followed by "oh, i never thought of that".

The UK is a net importer of many many things including some pretty basic essentials such as food and power. We run a huge trade deficit therefore like it or not prices are going up, inflation is going up and we face an extended period of uncertainty over our trading position. Investors don't like uncertainty and neither does big business.

Whatever happens isn't going to affect me much as I'm fairly secure financially but I can't help thinking that 10 years down the road the younger generation are gong to curse those who voted us out.
Younger generation in 10 years cursing Leavers?
I thought they had been doing that since June 24th?

Anyway, where have you been? - It's been 6 months since June 23 - why didn't you post that the day after Brexit? 
Still shell-shocked perhaps, while the rest of us get on with life?
How many staff have gone from your wife's company?


Just looked at your posting rate... another with few posts. Where on earth are you all coming from? tongue out

dandarez

13,287 posts

283 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
nute said:
Nice little pissing match going on here.

A lot of people voted in or out based on either very little, or flawed knowledge.

My wife is the FD of a UK company which manufacture consumer electronics. Almost all of the components they buy are priced in USD to the tune of about $80 million pa. Not expecting an out vote she was rather shell shocked the next day at work. The result was the main topic of discussion in the office and when she mentioned that it was going to be a nightmare for the company several who freely admitted to voting out were completely confused as to why.

She explained that input costs had just shot up and end sale costs are pretty much fixed so the difference has to come from somewhere, i.e. staff. She said it was like watching little light bulbs come on above their heads followed by "oh, i never thought of that".

The UK is a net importer of many many things including some pretty basic essentials such as food and power. We run a huge trade deficit therefore like it or not prices are going up, inflation is going up and we face an extended period of uncertainty over our trading position. Investors don't like uncertainty and neither does big business.

Whatever happens isn't going to affect me much as I'm fairly secure financially but I can't help thinking that 10 years down the road the younger generation are gong to curse those who voted us out.
Some lightbulbs here are yet to light up. I suspect some of them never will.
Says Slasher, the PH'r who is as dim as a Toc-H lamp! biggrin

Tryke3

1,609 posts

94 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
wc98 said:
///ajd said:
Do you think that is what they expect to happen?

Stock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bullst story, its a practical marine biology issue.

How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
do not call anything the common fisheries policy ,or those involved with it, including the relevant uk bodies has done or does ,stock management, ever fking again, ever. if i ever end up in jail it will be down to snapping after talking to one of my commercial skipper mates and him telling me he has just dumped another 400 boxes of plaice/haddock/cod/etc due to no quota. (whoever top fisheries bod in the uk is at the time will be on the end of the snapping).

it is fking insanity what fisheries managers have done over the last forty years. anyone, and i mean anyone that supports it needs battering about the face with a frozen cod repeatedly. you have been told this before, yet you continue to talk the same ste over,and over and over again. you are like a broken,whinging, bed wetting old fking woman.

out of the common fisheries policy the uk fleet could double landings of all whitefish species overnight, and thus double exports, without catching one single extra fish over and above what they catch at the moment. please get that through your thick skull .
Gotta love a brexiter, happy to destroy the seas for future generations just to pay his loan on a boat that makes around 1000 people redundant just to drive an audi. Do one prick

Wombat3

12,164 posts

206 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
Tryke3 said:
wc98 said:
///ajd said:
Do you think that is what they expect to happen?

Stock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bullst story, its a practical marine biology issue.

How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
do not call anything the common fisheries policy ,or those involved with it, including the relevant uk bodies has done or does ,stock management, ever fking again, ever. if i ever end up in jail it will be down to snapping after talking to one of my commercial skipper mates and him telling me he has just dumped another 400 boxes of plaice/haddock/cod/etc due to no quota. (whoever top fisheries bod in the uk is at the time will be on the end of the snapping).

it is fking insanity what fisheries managers have done over the last forty years. anyone, and i mean anyone that supports it needs battering about the face with a frozen cod repeatedly. you have been told this before, yet you continue to talk the same ste over,and over and over again. you are like a broken,whinging, bed wetting old fking woman.

out of the common fisheries policy the uk fleet could double landings of all whitefish species overnight, and thus double exports, without catching one single extra fish over and above what they catch at the moment. please get that through your thick skull .
Gotta love a brexiter, happy to destroy the seas for future generations just to pay his loan on a boat that makes around 1000 people redundant just to drive an audi. Do one prick
So its OK to catch quantity of fish "X" and throw half of them away just because "X" is twice the EU quota....

But its not OK to catch quantity of fish "X", land them and sell them?

Just checking (?)......

PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
Tryke3 said:
Gotta love a brexiter, happy to destroy the seas for future generations just to pay his loan on a boat that makes around 1000 people redundant just to drive an audi. Do one prick
I am failing to see your logic, if only British fisherman are fishing in British waters there will be fewer fish caught,how will that lead to destroying the seas for future generations ? If they can make more profit from landing fish instead of putting it back into the sea dead how will that change the number of fish caught ?

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
For those that know about these fishy things.

Will there really be much change post Brexit?

I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?

PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
For those that know about these fishy things.

Will there really be much change post Brexit?

I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?
As with everything nobody knows, but the BBC did a piece from the Shetland's, the local fisherman was pointing out the different nationalities of the trawlers, if we reverted to national waters and being a large island surrounded by water it must make a difference, interesting point about British ships fishing in other EU areas I don't know but I think we have the largest good fishing area that is shared with the rest of the EU.

cirian75

4,260 posts

233 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
the company my old man works for imports most of its parts from Japan (they are a subsidiary of a Japanese corp).

I mentioned a few month ago that they had bought out their main EU competitor who's main factory is in Spain.

The contract that were signed for supplying a large EU car maker just before the 23rd June have still not materialised at the Manchester factory, it plain the Spanish factory has it, and the MD has moved his office and staff to the Spanish place, bums are starting to get a little twitchy at the Manchester factory.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

160 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
cirian75 said:
the company my old man works for imports most of its parts from Japan (they are a subsidiary of a Japanese corp).

I mentioned a few month ago that they had bought out their main EU competitor who's main factory is in Spain.

The contract that were signed for supplying a large EU car maker just before the 23rd June have still not materialised at the Manchester factory, it plain the Spanish factory has it, and the MD has moved his office and staff to the Spanish place, bums are starting to get a little twitchy at the Manchester factory.
So there are plenty of UK car makers and Japan would seem a good fit for a trade deal ,
previously EU car makers had to use mostly EU parts to stop manufactures asembling cars from a kit sent from japan otherwise they were hit by tariffs so your company are less likely to stop importing non eu parts post brexit...

anonymous-user

54 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
So there are plenty of UK car makers and Japan would seem a good fit for a trade deal ,
previously EU car makers had to use mostly EU parts to stop manufactures asembling cars from a kit sent from japan otherwise they were hit by tariffs so your company are less likely to stop importing non eu parts post brexit...
I love how some of the brexiteers can tell from a few lines exactly what the effect on other people's' business will be.
Or how they know more than a CEO about a business.

cirian75

4,260 posts

233 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
the components are imported from Japan, and then assembled in the UK and then sold to the Car/bike makers.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

160 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
cookie118 said:
powerstroke said:
So there are plenty of UK car makers and Japan would seem a good fit for a trade deal ,
previously EU car makers had to use mostly EU parts to stop manufactures asembling cars from a kit sent from japan otherwise they were hit by tariffs so your company are less likely to stop importing non eu parts post brexit...
I love how some of the brexiteers can tell from a few lines exactly what the effect on other people's' business will be.
Or how they know more than a CEO about a business.
I love the way the remoners can predict economic doom and a plague of locusts as a result of a vote to leave a failing political project silly

b2hbm

1,291 posts

222 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
For those that know about these fishy things.
Will there really be much change post Brexit?
I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?
In theory we should go back to pre-EEC days and exclude other nationalities, however I suspect that whatever people expect to happen, won't. To suddenly cut out non-UK fleets might feel good but the negotiations can't ignore the effects on those nations so I'm sure a deal will be struck. Even if it's a tapered withdrawal I expect to hear of non-UK fleets in "our" waters. The fishing industry will be disappointed but I think it's one of those levers that will be used when negotiating.

But as WC98 rightly points out, even if the UK fleets were only allowed freedom from the EU quota concept as a result of Brexit, that alone would be a boost for the industry.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
b2hbm said:
In theory we should go back to pre-EEC days and exclude other nationalities, however I suspect that whatever people expect to happen, won't. To suddenly cut out non-UK fleets might feel good but the negotiations can't ignore the effects on those nations so I'm sure a deal will be struck. Even if it's a tapered withdrawal I expect to hear of non-UK fleets in "our" waters. The fishing industry will be disappointed but I think it's one of those levers that will be used when negotiating.

But as WC98 rightly points out, even if the UK fleets were only allowed freedom from the EU quota concept as a result of Brexit, that alone would be a boost for the industry.
Will quotas be removed though?

Isn't at least part of the purpose of quotas for sustainability?

If the rEU see the UK abandoning quotas may they not do the same?

williamp

19,261 posts

273 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
For those that know about these fishy things.

Will there really be much change post Brexit?

I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?
As with everything nobody knows, but the BBC did a piece from the Shetland's, the local fisherman was pointing out the different nationalities of the trawlers, if we reverted to national waters and being a large island surrounded by water it must make a difference, interesting point about British ships fishing in other EU areas I don't know but I think we have the largest good fishing area that is shared with the rest of the EU.
Our fishermen dont matter. Just ask Bob, or the late Jo Cox:




Oh, and the EU might banish ALL forms of motorsport from the UK due to insurance.
http://www.mcia.co.uk/Press-and-Statistics/Press-R...


PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
b2hbm said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
For those that know about these fishy things.
Will there really be much change post Brexit?
I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?
In theory we should go back to pre-EEC days and exclude other nationalities, however I suspect that whatever people expect to happen, won't. To suddenly cut out non-UK fleets might feel good but the negotiations can't ignore the effects on those nations so I'm sure a deal will be struck. Even if it's a tapered withdrawal I expect to hear of non-UK fleets in "our" waters. The fishing industry will be disappointed but I think it's one of those levers that will be used when negotiating.

But as WC98 rightly points out, even if the UK fleets were only allowed freedom from the EU quota concept as a result of Brexit, that alone would be a boost for the industry.
Did the EU care about the decimation of the UK fishing fleet due to their policies, this sounds like you would like everything to remain the same, then there is no point to leaving, when Iceland imposed their extended territorial waters they didn't care about the other fishing fleets, the EU would still have large areas of sea to fish in, if it is going to cause probems for them it is very telling about the UKs part of EU fish stocks.

FiF

44,094 posts

251 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
b2hbm said:
In theory we should go back to pre-EEC days and exclude other nationalities, however I suspect that whatever people expect to happen, won't. To suddenly cut out non-UK fleets might feel good but the negotiations can't ignore the effects on those nations so I'm sure a deal will be struck. Even if it's a tapered withdrawal I expect to hear of non-UK fleets in "our" waters. The fishing industry will be disappointed but I think it's one of those levers that will be used when negotiating.

But as WC98 rightly points out, even if the UK fleets were only allowed freedom from the EU quota concept as a result of Brexit, that alone would be a boost for the industry.
Will quotas be removed though?

Isn't at least part of the purpose of quotas for sustainability?

If the rEU see the UK abandoning quotas may they not do the same?
For example instead of quotas we could see regulations for designated permanently closed areas for conservation purposes; provision for the temporary closures of fisheries; promotion of selective gear, effective enforcement.

Mrr T

12,237 posts

265 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Mrr T said:
It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Do we have a large trade surplus in food?
We do export quite a lot.

https://www.fdf.org.uk/exports/ukexports.aspx


PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Friday 23rd December 2016
quotequote all
FiF said:
For example instead of quotas we could see regulations for designated permanently closed areas for conservation purposes; provision for the temporary closures of fisheries; promotion of selective gear, effective enforcement.
Maybe, I don't think the fish are likely to observe the boundaries though ...

wink
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