Who will win Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, 2017

[Dindoit]

Has Nuttall updated his page yet to say he won?

[hyphen]

Kermit power said:

When even UKIP's national leader can't win in one of the most pro-Brexit constituencies in the country against the most incompetent Labour party we've ever seen, surely even the most ardent Brexiteer has to now agree that they were a useful bunch of tools to trigger the referendum, but are now completely and utterly irrelevant?

So long as May actually does deliver Brexit, can anyone really honestly say they'd vote for Paul Nutall to become Prime Minister? He'd make Donald Trump look like the sensible, conservative choice to lead a country!

I think it is needs Farage, bankrolled by Banks, to start a new 'untainted' party with a new brand new name, he can handpick people from UKIP to end the squabbles and probably take most of the street campaigners with him.

The UK would still benefit from a 2nd centre-right party to keep the Tories from complacency. Suspect Farage no longer has the energy or desire to do it though as its been a long and hard road he has walked for many years. A seat in the Lords would be a better move for him, although suspect he still harbours a desire to be an MP- he would probably have won Stoke.

[anonymous-user]

dandarez said:

jjlynn27 said:

So, when are we expecting to know more?

I'm actually hoping Nuttall will win, as if he doesn't I'm afraid UKIP will just fade away.

How far back was it you said they were 'history'?

Here's my take. Just been speaking to a guy in Stoke who bought some parts from me on Monday. He messaged me earlier this eve to say they'd arrived. I messaged back about good old Royal Mail and said bet it's busy with the by-election on today.
Didn't expect this: he said none of his family were bothering to vote (I obviously didn't give any allegiance away) because Labour will win.
I said you sound confident. He then said 'the postal votes will do it'.
Postal votes? He said the Uni (he works there) has seen masses of pressure on students to vote and other areas he'd seen really pushing postal. Could be 6000 postal votes! 6k postal?

If that is true, then I can see clearly LABOUR HOLD!

Which university and why would postal votes make any difference? Keele isn't in the constituency and why would students at Staffordshire (which is in the constituency) need a postal vote? Postal votes main relevance to students is so that they can vote in elections back in their 'home' constituency. Sounds like an ill informed excuse for apathy to me!

[MarshPhantom]

Dindoit said:

Has Nuttall updated his page yet to say he won?

Landslide victory and 1 Million people turned out for his victory speech.

[Kermit power]

hyphen said:

I think it is needs Farage, bankrolled by Banks, to start a new 'untainted' party with a new brand new name, he can handpick people from UKIP to end the squabbles and probably take most of the street campaigners with him.

The UK would still benefit from a 2nd centre-right party to keep the Tories from complacency. Suspect Farage no longer has the energy or desire to do it though as its been a long and hard road he has walked for many years. A seat in the Lords would be a better move for him, although suspect he still harbours a desire to be an MP- he would probably have won Stoke.

Have UKIP suddenly been given the right to award seats in the Lords then?

I can't see any other way of Farage getting let into the place...

[MarshPhantom]

boxxob said:

from the breakdown and the turnout (still not as low as expected, so it would be interesting to see the postal vote figures), it is a narrow and miserable win for labour.

Well it's a larger majority than The Tories in Copeland, who also came third in Stoke.

[turbobloke]

MarshPhantom said:

boxxob said:

from the breakdown and the turnout (still not as low as expected, so it would be interesting to see the postal vote figures), it is a narrow and miserable win for labour.

Well it's a larger majority than The Tories in Copeland, who also came third in Stoke.

Also known as 'Labour ousted by Tories in a heartland seat after dominating the political landscape since 1924'.

After 'scraping home' elsewhere this is more bad news for Labour and good news for everyone else.

[Murph7355]

MarshPhantom said:

Well it's a larger majority than The Tories in Copeland, who also came third in Stoke.

You should work on a farm with your ability to clutch at straws...(you are Jeremy Corbyn AICMFP)

[Digga]

Jonesy23 said:

So apparently the rule of being able to pin the right colour rosette on a turd and have it win still applies.

Decades of electing Labour there and they still haven't twigged that it hasn't helped them out at all.

On the bright side it keeps Corbyn in place killing the party from within.

It's lamentable.

Yet again, Stoke demonstrates it's apartness from the rest of the more prosperous Midlands and North West. No wonder property is so comparatively cheap there.

jjlynn27 said:

Pity.

You have a Labour moron, who by all accounts shouldn't be allowed outside without a muzzle, and UKIP leader can't win against him?

They have the parliamentary representative they deserve. Nothing more, nothing less. Illiterate, ignorant, oafish, deluded and signally redoloent of all that is wrong with Labour right now.

[turbobloke]

Murph7355 said:

MarshPhantom said:

Well it's a larger majority than The Tories in Copeland, who also came third in Stoke.

You should work on a farm with your ability to clutch at straws...(you are Jeremy Corbyn AICMFP)

Labour scraped by in Stoke, a good news story for Corbyn as things are on the up

2005
Labour Mark Fisher 14,760
Liberal Democrat John Redfern 4,986
Conservative Esther Baroudy 4,823
UKIP Joseph Bonfiglio 914

[rscott]

boxxob said:

from the breakdown and the turnout (still not as low as expected, so it would be interesting to see the postal vote figures), it is a narrow and miserable win for labour.

Figures are here - http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-de...

The total number of ballot papers counted was 21,200
4,335 postal votes
16,865 polling votes

[Digga]

rscott said:

Figures are here - http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-de...

The total number of ballot papers counted was 21,200
4,335 postal votes
16,865 polling votes

I know little about these things, but at face value, the proportion of postal ballots stands out as higher than I would expect. I smell rodents.

[Murph7355]

rscott said:

Figures are here - http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-de...

The total number of ballot papers counted was 21,200
4,335 postal votes
16,865 polling votes

Looking at the results I wonder what wouldl have happened had UKIP not stood (or the Cons)...maybe a 5k lower turnout. Thought it would only have taken half their supporters to move to the other for labour to have lost.

[jjlynn27]

Digga said:

I know little about these things, but at face value, the proportion of postal ballots stands out as higher than I would expect. I smell rodents.

I'd be interested to see distribution of postal votes.

[FN2TypeR]

Digga said:

rscott said:

Figures are here - http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-de...

The total number of ballot papers counted was 21,200
4,335 postal votes
16,865 polling votes

I know little about these things, but at face value, the proportion of postal ballots stands out as higher than I would expect. I smell rodents.

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7419

"how many people use postal votes?".

[Digga]

FN2TypeR said:

Digga said:

rscott said:

Figures are here - http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-de...

The total number of ballot papers counted was 21,200
4,335 postal votes
16,865 polling votes

I know little about these things, but at face value, the proportion of postal ballots stands out as higher than I would expect. I smell rodents.

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7419

"how many people use postal votes?".

Fascinating, thanks.

I'd wager most postal votes were Labour and possibly came from certain communities who felt a Labour win was to their best advantage.

[FN2TypeR]

Digga said:

Fascinating, thanks.

I'd wager most postal votes were Labour and possibly came from certain communities who felt a Labour win was to their best advantage.

Tower Hamlets all over again eh?

[Digga]

FN2TypeR said:

Digga said:

Fascinating, thanks.

I'd wager most postal votes were Labour and possibly came from certain communities who felt a Labour win was to their best advantage.

Tower Hamlets all over again eh?

Where there's a will there's a way, normally.

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

FN2TypeR said:

Digga said:

rscott said:

Figures are here - http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-de...

The total number of ballot papers counted was 21,200
4,335 postal votes
16,865 polling votes

I know little about these things, but at face value, the proportion of postal ballots stands out as higher than I would expect. I smell rodents.

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7419

"how many people use postal votes?".

Fascinating, thanks.

I'd wager most postal votes were Labour and possibly came from certain communities who felt a Labour win was to their best advantage.

4000+ postal votes, majority 2000+ iirc. Interesting.

[hyphen]

Not sure why Postal Votes are being focused on here when it is the low turnout overall that is the main thing.

Nutall blew it, his shenanigans meant voters just didn't bother turning up. An analyst on the radio this morning also said that in his opinion UKIP also went too all out on getting in the Labour voters, and ended up overlooking the Tory voters which they really needed to win.

Edited by hyphen on Friday 24th February 10:07