The Great Norfolk flood - didnt happen

[Norfolkit]

Morningside said:

There was an interview (On the BBC I think) with someone from GT. Yarmouth who was filling sandbags and he was asked when he was leaving after protecting his home.

When it turned out that he was not leaving as heard it all last time and it was a waste the interviewer quietly moved away from him as it was obvious it did not fit in the news broadcast of every one is going do die!! theme.

He was a lucky bugger then. The Met. Office predicted the storm surge accurately, the high tide is obviously known years in advance. The dangerous thing was that the two were predicted to coincide off the east coast. Only a late change in wind direction stopped the worst case scenario happening and then only by about an hour. Mr Knowall in Yarmouth might want to listen next time, he might have seen it all before but he can't see into the fking future and some poor sod might have to risk their life to save his next time.

[wc98]

Norfolkit said:

He was a lucky bugger then. The Met. Office predicted the storm surge accurately, the high tide is obviously known years in advance. The dangerous thing was that the two were predicted to coincide off the east coast. Only a late change in wind direction stopped the worst case scenario happening and then only by about an hour. Mr Knowall in Yarmouth might want to listen next time, he might have seen it all before but he can't see into the fking future and some poor sod might have to risk their life to save his next time.

i believe the entire point of weather forecasting is to predict the weather in advance. are you saying that the met with their 90 million quid supercomputer could not predict that wind change 12 hours in advance ? anyone actually looking at weather charts and/or radar images of the various weather systems could predict what was actually happening as close as a few hours out.

note the first question was rhetorical, as i spend so much time on the coast i know for a fact the current method of forecasting by the met is a complete joke.

[Norfolkit]

wc98 said:

i believe the entire point of weather forecasting is to predict the weather in advance. are you saying that the met with their 90 million quid supercomputer could not predict that wind change 12 hours in advance ? anyone actually looking at weather charts and/or radar images of the various weather systems could predict what was actually happening as close as a few hours out.

note the first question was rhetorical, as i spend so much time on the coast i know for a fact the current method of forecasting by the met is a complete joke.

I also live on the coast and I'm a weather nerd. The Met Office were spot on until late morning/early afternoon when the wind direction changed, could they have spotted that earlier, I don't know, if they could I suspect they would have.

Either way the comments about panic over nothing are way wide of the mark, it was a close run thing and for me (living with the potential consequences of it) the work by the Environment Agency et al was spot on.

[AdeTuono]

wc98 said:

i believe the entire point of weather forecasting is to predict the weather in advance. are you saying that the met with their 90 million quid supercomputer could not predict that wind change 12 hours in advance ? anyone actually looking at weather charts and/or radar images of the various weather systems could predict what was actually happening as close as a few hours out.

note the first question was rhetorical, as i spend so much time on the coast i know for a fact the current method of forecasting by the met is a complete joke.

[MG CHRIS]

What I don't understand is why for people living in flood risk areas don't have better protection in front of houses etc or inside the houses. They just let it happen time after time without thinking hang on lets see if I can prevent the damage or the extent of it instead of blaming other people.

Then again just answered my own question they rather blame other people.

[vonuber]

MG CHRIS said:

What I don't understand is why for people living in flood risk areas don't have better protection in front of houses etc or inside the houses. They just let it happen time after time without thinking hang on lets see if I can prevent the damage or the extent of it instead of blaming other people.

Then again just answered my own question they rather blame other people.

Better protection? Like what?

[don4l]

vonuber said:

MG CHRIS said:

What I don't understand is why for people living in flood risk areas don't have better protection in front of houses etc or inside the houses. They just let it happen time after time without thinking hang on lets see if I can prevent the damage or the extent of it instead of blaming other people.

Then again just answered my own question they rather blame other people.

Better protection? Like what?

Plant a couple of bushes on a hill and let the the rivers silt up.

That's what people who have degrees in "Water" tell us. We should listen to the experts.

[Norfolkit]

MG CHRIS said:

What I don't understand is why for people living in flood risk areas don't have better protection in front of houses etc or inside the houses. They just let it happen time after time without thinking hang on lets see if I can prevent the damage or the extent of it instead of blaming other people.

Then again just answered my own question they rather blame other people.

I guess it depends on the likelihood of being flooded. Here, it's an exceptional event and needs a specific set of things to happen at the same time, could be 30 years before it happens again (there again it could happen again at the next spring tide but chances are it won't happen again for quite some time, it's even possible it may never happen again.

If you live on riverside in York you know you will get flooded every year, possibly several times a year.

Here we have flood defenses that protect us in all but the most exceptional event, is it worth spending £30/40/50 k of your own money to protect against something that may never happen. The Kings Arms in York probably couldn't build effective flood defenses therefore have learned to live with it.

[vonuber]

Norfolkit said:

I guess it depends on the likelihood of being flooded. Here, it's an exceptional event and needs a specific set of things to happen at the same time, could be 30 years before it happens again (there again it could happen again at the next spring tide but chances are it won't happen again for quite some time, it's even possible it may never happen again.

If you live on riverside in York you know you will get flooded every year, possibly several times a year.

Here we have flood defenses that protect us in all but the most exceptional event, is it worth spending £30/40/50 k of your own money to protect against something that may never happen. The Kings Arms in York probably couldn't build effective flood defenses therefore have learned to live with it.

You also need to consider the effective return period you are aiming to defend for, as well as the impact on futurer flood events. Every bit of hard defence raises surrounding water levels (as there is less space for the water).