saudi arabia , the next syria ?

[jamoor]

Digga said:

The various tribes and religious factions - it's more useful to think of the area this way than using geographically rigid concepts such as countries - have been at war in the ME for centuries. Any local peace is, thus far and until proven otherwise, merely a temporary pause.

Could say that about anywhere in the world really.

[Digga]

jamoor said:

Digga said:

The various tribes and religious factions - it's more useful to think of the area this way than using geographically rigid concepts such as countries - have been at war in the ME for centuries. Any local peace is, thus far and until proven otherwise, merely a temporary pause.

Could say that about anywhere in the world really.

It's a fundamental issue though, especially WRT to religion. Even at the height of WW1 or WW2, a civilian Englishman, German or Frenchman could actually have co-existed side-by-side and, famously (tragically) in the truces in the trenches of of WW1, actually did.

[wc98]

gruffalo said:

So have they always run a deficit, is this price required because of a drop in demand or have they recently increased spending for some reason?

I am trying to understand why they may run out of money that may cause the scenario described.

that was part of why i posted the topic . i previously read that price was required to maintain current spending ,but couldn't find out why . sure the oil price has dropped , but there must be more to the situation if such a high price is required..

i also wanted to gauge opinion on the possibility of civil war in the country in the near future. i am prone to taking things as read whereas many on here tend to have more considered opinions and better understanding of the situation, particularly those that work in the middle east.

[wc98]

Digga said:

fblm said:

I read a very good book called inside the kingdom a few years ago, sounds like you would find it interesting.

FWIW, T.E. Lawrence's Seven Pillars of Wisdom is also compelling.

noted, thanks.

[anonymous-user]

HappyMidget said:

Sounds like Saudi is heading the same way as Iran went in the 70's leading to the revolution there. At some point the normal people will get pissed off with the ruling elite and throw 'em out.

There's all kinds of nasty groups based in Saudi and kept in check by the regime either through bribes or force.

I'm not sure another haven for ISIS or whatever tribal savage cult comes next is what the Middle East needs.

[HappyMidget]

El stovey said:

There's all kinds of nasty groups based in Saudi and kept in check by the regime either through bribes or force.

I'm not sure another haven for ISIS or whatever tribal savage cult comes next is what the Middle East needs.

That would be my only concern is that it went full extreme Sunni. At least Shia allows for integration with modern culture in a way.

[Tannedbaldhead]

gruffalo said:

Can I ask where your $200/barrel comes from

Your $200/barrel will come if Saudi Arabia suffered a Syrian style meltdown.

[SKP555]

Are ISIS actually any worse than the Saudi government?

[Yipper]

As long as KSA stays mostly Sunni, the country will be fine. Even when the oil runs out post-2050s.

[mickytruelove]

Tannedbaldhead said:

Your $200/barrel will come if Saudi Arabia suffered a Syrian style meltdown.

nah, America (world police) would go to save the day and 'restore peace' with democracy bombs, aka take the oil and make it cheaper.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

SKP555 said:

Are ISIS actually any worse than the Saudi government?

Well the Saudi government certainly behead a lot more people, about 20 a month on average. Most of whom are on trumped up charges, such as sorcery.

[HappyMidget]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Well the Saudi government certainly behead a lot more people, about 20 a month on average. Most of whom are on trumped up charges, such as sorcery.

And Saudi is massively oppressive to women compared to say Iran.

[Mr Snrub]

HappyMidget said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Well the Saudi government certainly behead a lot more people, about 20 a month on average. Most of whom are on trumped up charges, such as sorcery.

And Saudi is massively oppressive to women compared to say Iran.

If ever a country was worthy of a regime change, it's that one

[HappyMidget]

Mr Snrub said:

If ever a country was worthy of a regime change, it's that one

Saudi? Yup. Ridiculous how we still support them when Iran is a much more open and secular society!

[Mr Snrub]

HappyMidget said:

Mr Snrub said:

If ever a country was worthy of a regime change, it's that one

Saudi? Yup. Ridiculous how we still support them when Iran is a much more open and secular society!

Morally I'd feel cleaner if we just drove in and took the oil for ourselves rather than fund such a barbaric medieval regime

[stevesingo]

Mr Snrub said:

Morally I'd feel cleaner if we just drove in and took the oil for ourselves rather than fund such a barbaric medieval regime

There is merit in that POV.

[HappyMidget]

stevesingo said:

Mr Snrub said:

Morally I'd feel cleaner if we just drove in and took the oil for ourselves rather than fund such a barbaric medieval regime

There is merit in that POV.

Turn Saudi into a lake? Yup, would support that....

[LaSource]

wc98 said:

with the saudi's rapidly running out of money (it is claimed they need around $200 dollars a barrel oil prices to maintain current spending levels) what do the ph collective think is going to happen in saudi in around 3 years time when the money runs out ?

pre trump i thought the americans may have helped them out whether it be money or armed forces to contain civil uprising, now i am not so sure. there is a huge division across the country not widely reported in the msm, i can remember my father mentioning an incident many years ago where the king announced he was going to visit qatif province ,something to do with a new project , and the local rulers announced if he came he would be killed. in other places the king has been known to visit incognito at night to avoid the risk of assassination.

there is a huge divide between east and west along the usual sunni/shia lines but also a hatred of the royal family in many quarters that is all likely to explode when the money runs out.

If this scenario does play out then expect the anti-royal brigade to also be anti-west as the west will be seen to have propped up and supported their interests through the royal families.

[davepoth]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

maxxy5 said:

Trump is apparently not a fan of Saudi Arabia.

Given their respective attitudes to women, I thought they would be kindred spirits.

Trump is a big fan of women. Especially in swimsuits, parading on a stage in front of him and desperate to impress. Saudi Arabia goes against his very being.

[gruffalo]

wc98 said:

gruffalo said:

So have they always run a deficit, is this price required because of a drop in demand or have they recently increased spending for some reason?

I am trying to understand why they may run out of money that may cause the scenario described.

that was part of why i posted the topic . i previously read that price was required to maintain current spending ,but couldn't find out why . sure the oil price has dropped , but there must be more to the situation if such a high price is required..

i also wanted to gauge opinion on the possibility of civil war in the country in the near future. i am prone to taking things as read whereas many on here tend to have more considered opinions and better understanding of the situation, particularly those that work in the middle east.

Thanks for coming back on this, I have no idea which is why I asked.

The military I believe to be quite strong and fairly well trained, I guess they will side with the royal family basically a bit like Syria but I don't know if there is enough ill will in the rest of the population to drive a civil war.

On one hand a broken up Saudi could solve a great many of the issues in that region but on the other is it better the devil you know?