Chances of May calling a snap election.
Discussion
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Greg66 said:
Fixed Term Parliament Act been repeated?
"Repealed" 
I believe they could vote through an earlier election if they wanted... But I can't see it happening.
It'd divert attention and resources away from more immediate challenges, and frankly why bother - there's no credible opposition in sight even 3yrs away imo. And if things turn out well with Brexit (as I suspect they will), just bag another term in 2020.
MarshPhantom said:
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
What's the alternative, PM Corbyn?There won't be an election until the boundaries are changed imo. New boundaries + Corbyn still leading Labour = a huge majority for the Tories.
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
You mean Labour?I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.
Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22
The way things are going the next government won't be anything except the Tories.
Interesting to see the economists getting it all cassock over surplice again.
December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
Can't beat clean break divorces.
A double figures polling lead for the Conservatives remains in place.
Corbyn and Labour still sunk and drifting on the sea bed with the Lib Dems.
Interesting to see the economists getting it all cassock over surplice again.
December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
Can't beat clean break divorces.
A double figures polling lead for the Conservatives remains in place.
Corbyn and Labour still sunk and drifting on the sea bed with the Lib Dems.
I don't think May will cal an election any time soon, why would she?
That said, if Parliament voted against our EU Exit she will call an election rather than a referendum and campaign on that point. What happens then? Are Labour going to campaign the way they've just voted and get decimated in the North? Lib Dems might pick up some seats, but will gain as many Labour seats in London as anywhere else. Scotland, no change. England and Wales no change, except the destination of all those Labour seats. Doesn't matter where they go, any configuration of that mix gives May a stronger majority.
But those circumstances won't arise because what I've written is blindingly obvious. Plus voting down the EU Exit bill means a WTO exit, not no exit despite what Nick Clegg was saying last night. So, according to remain economic theory, that would be MPs deliberately harming the country. Add in that there'll be 50 MPs losing their seats that will want to hang on for another year's gravy.
So in short, no there won't be a snap election.
Oh and Corbyn PM
That said, if Parliament voted against our EU Exit she will call an election rather than a referendum and campaign on that point. What happens then? Are Labour going to campaign the way they've just voted and get decimated in the North? Lib Dems might pick up some seats, but will gain as many Labour seats in London as anywhere else. Scotland, no change. England and Wales no change, except the destination of all those Labour seats. Doesn't matter where they go, any configuration of that mix gives May a stronger majority.
But those circumstances won't arise because what I've written is blindingly obvious. Plus voting down the EU Exit bill means a WTO exit, not no exit despite what Nick Clegg was saying last night. So, according to remain economic theory, that would be MPs deliberately harming the country. Add in that there'll be 50 MPs losing their seats that will want to hang on for another year's gravy.
So in short, no there won't be a snap election.
Oh and Corbyn PM
Greg66 said:
Fixed Term Parliament Act been repeated?
Yeah. It's Fake News Bulls
t.She can't call an early election without getting the law changed. Turkey's don't vote for Christmas so that ain't happening.
Labour are badly f
ked right now. But who's to say they still will be in 2020. We've got Brexit to come and the interim period will be st, probably, and the public have short memories...BlackLabel said:
MarshPhantom said:
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
What's the alternative, PM Corbyn?There won't be an election until the boundaries are changed imo. New boundaries + Corbyn still leading Labour = a huge majority for the Tories.
Corbyn.
Greg66 said:
Fixed Term Parliament Act been repeated?
It hasn't been repealed, but they could still force an election through, section two of the act:If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
MarshPhantom said:
Stats online for percentage of leave voters that regret their decision are also quite interesting. No one is going to regret not voting Leave, when Leave won, surely.
I don't believe any of these surveys. Ballots are secret, no-one knows for sure how anyone voted, and remainers could be saying they voted Leave but would change their mind if re-voted as they have an agenda.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff