Chances of May calling a snap election.
Discussion
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Bookies tend not to be stupid or give away their money un necessarilyI'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
They are of course sometimes wrong, but William Hill are currently offering 8/11 on for the Tories to win the next election with a majority and 6/1 for a Labour majority. They are giving 1/4 on that tories will have the most seats, 10/3 on labour having the most
Staying with William Hill, the odds on when Labour will next form a majority government are 9/2 by 2020, 9/4 between 2021 and 2025, 11/4 for 2026-2030 and 7/4 for 2031 onwards. By my reckoning, that means they see 2031 onwards as the most likely time
Paddy Power tell a similar story - 1/4 on for tories to win most seats (not necessarily a majority) at next election, 3/1 for labour
When was the last time (if ever ?) that such overwhelming odds were available in favour of a sitting government ?
You make some valid points about tory voting. But Corbyn/labour are close to unelectable for the vast majority that aren't out & out corbyn fans. So lost tory votes won't go to labour and the problem then is who do you vote for ? lib dems are a shambolic joke, UKIP's purpose is starting to look less relevant, Green's couldn't govern a small town let alone a country, so you either abstain, or somewhat reluctantly go back to plan A which is the tories.
SKP555 said:
It might not be a bad idea to firm up her majority while Labour are messing around but unless she has no confidence in herself I don't think she'd get the 2/3rds of MPs she needs.
A three-line government whip to vote for a vote of no confidence would be, unusual, certainly.don4l said:
MarshPhantom said:
Stats online for percentage of leave voters that regret their decision are also quite interesting. No one is going to regret not voting Leave, when Leave won, surely.
Why don't you post a link?When I make unsubstantiated claims I get accused of spouting bulls
t.OP please link to the on-line polls
For all Polls on EU referendum I poll the exact opposite and I know I am not alone.
jonby said:
Bookies tend not to be stupid or give away their money un necessarily
There are many many examples of them getting political outcomes totally wrong, recent examples would include Paddy Power paying out £800k to customers who backed Clinton to win ahead of the election result. We should look at the reasons why they did that though, as you correctly point out they aren't stupid nor keen on unneccessary spending. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/18/bookmak...
They all had Clinton down as favourite for that, Power's loss in the end was £3.5m. That's a lot of money but equally it buys a lot of publicity and dangles a lot of carrots in people's minds that the bookies can be beaten and is actually peanuts compared to what they stand to make back in their core markets:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2147833/paddy-power-...
They all backed remain in the referendum with a figure of remain winning being a 90% certainty quoted by their PR offices, no doubt encouraging people to place more money on remain.
The reasons they do this are quite simple, they aren't there to predict outcomes of anything all they do is look at which way money is moving and base their prices on exposure to loss and what they can pass on to others in the global market. The link below explains from their perspective:
Ladbrokes head of political betting said:
The truth is that bookies do not offer markets on political events to help people forecast the results. We do it to turn a profit (or at least not lose too much) and in that respect, this vote worked out very well for us.
Nobody at Ladbrokes’ HQ will be criticising the predictive powers of our odds, they’ll be looking at the money we made.
The supposed helpful side effect of these markets, their potential to help understand the probabilities of the various outcomes, will no doubt be heavily criticised, understandably.
I think one can see some reasons why it might not have done that job very well this time. While I see no evidence that the betting was deliberately “manipulated” by big money, I think there’s something to be considered in the fact that the most affluent sections of society were generally behind Remain.
Maybe there just aren’t enough dispassionate investors out there to correct that possible bias, even in a multi-million pound market like the EU Referendum.
The majority of players in the market were actually backing Leave, but that doesn’t matter to the prices – all that counts is the amounts of money.
One £10,000 bet counts the same as 10,000 separate £1 bets. In an event like this, where the bettors are also participants,(in that most of them were also voters), should we have taken account of that?
http://news.ladbrokes.com/politics/british-politics/why-did-betting-markets-get-the-eu-referendum-result-so-wrong.htmlNobody at Ladbrokes’ HQ will be criticising the predictive powers of our odds, they’ll be looking at the money we made.
The supposed helpful side effect of these markets, their potential to help understand the probabilities of the various outcomes, will no doubt be heavily criticised, understandably.
I think one can see some reasons why it might not have done that job very well this time. While I see no evidence that the betting was deliberately “manipulated” by big money, I think there’s something to be considered in the fact that the most affluent sections of society were generally behind Remain.
Maybe there just aren’t enough dispassionate investors out there to correct that possible bias, even in a multi-million pound market like the EU Referendum.
The majority of players in the market were actually backing Leave, but that doesn’t matter to the prices – all that counts is the amounts of money.
One £10,000 bet counts the same as 10,000 separate £1 bets. In an event like this, where the bettors are also participants,(in that most of them were also voters), should we have taken account of that?
Political markets are nothing but a headline grabbing occasional loss leader for bookmakers which they are increasingly capitalising on and are now looking to replace the poll companies as the arbiters of public opinion, in their view that would serve to further legitimise gambling as a harmless behaviour whilst also publicising their brand to whole new markets.
Please do not fall for this. They are not political analysts and their daily business is to set odds among themselves in order to present a "favourite" which in a political context is amazingly dangerous behaviour for us all as it is so open to abuse. Public opinion could be bought very easily if bookies replace polls as the representatives of public opinion.
FN2TypeR said:
It hasn't been repealed, but they could still force an election through, section two of the act:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
I really cannot see either of those two things happening.If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
rover 623gsi said:
FN2TypeR said:
It hasn't been repealed, but they could still force an election through, section two of the act:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
I really cannot see either of those two things happening.If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
WindyCommon said:
turbobloke said:
Interesting to see the economists getting it all cassock over surplice again.
December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
Errr......December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
GBPUSD December average rate = 124.7756
GBPUSD today - 123.1240
December was the date of the forecast, not a comparison date. The forecast applied to early 2017 and said nothing of late 2016. Do pay attention at the back!
Full marks for the spin though, highly rotating and almost convincing...but not quite on the button.
turbobloke said:
WindyCommon said:
turbobloke said:
Interesting to see the economists getting it all cassock over surplice again.
December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
Errr......December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
GBPUSD December average rate = 124.7756
GBPUSD today - 123.1240
December was the date of the forecast, not a comparison date. The forecast applied to early 2017 and said nothing of late 2016. Do pay attention at the back!
Full marks for the spin though, highly rotating and almost convincing...but not quite on the button.
Last print Dec 30th 2016 = 1.2338
Today (as above) = 123.1240
The one day rise reclaimed some but not all of the ground lost since the beginning of the year. The pound has weakened since December.
I'm sorry if the facts conflict with your desired narrative.
turbobloke said:
WindyCommon said:
turbobloke said:
Interesting to see the economists getting it all cassock over surplice again.
December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
Errr......December 2016: GBP forecast to fall early 2017
January 2017: GBP rises 3% on biggest daily gain since 2008
GBPUSD December average rate = 124.7756
GBPUSD today - 123.1240
December was the date of the forecast, not a comparison date. The forecast applied to early 2017 and said nothing of late 2016. Do pay attention at the back!
Full marks for the spin though, highly rotating and almost convincing...but not quite on the button.
Greg66 said:
Murph7355 said:
Greg66 said:
Fixed Term Parliament Act been repeated?
"Repealed" 
Do you have an unusual qwerty keyboard with the t next to the l?
edit.
Re snap election. Zilch chance.
Edited by dandarez on Wednesday 18th January 15:44
castroses said:
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
You mean Labour?I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.
Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22
powerstroke said:
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
e.
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
e.
UKIP then ????
MarshPhantom said:
castroses said:
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
You mean Labour?I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.
Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22
jonby said:
Bookies tend not to be stupid or give away their money un necessarily
It's a bit more complex that your post reads. Bookies judge their odds on their risk and this will depend on those who bet. Whilst it runs generally along the lines of the likely winner, the actual odds are not a dependable forecast, 'cause that's not what odds are.MarshPhantom said:
castroses said:
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
You mean Labour?I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.
Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22
The critical number is the libdems, just nine seats, one of their lowest for some time. However, their infrastructure remains intact and they come and they go. I'd consider voting libdems next election depending on the likely leader.
The UKIP has lost its funding I believe and there are a few dissatisfied voters in Scotland who might vote tactically, and the left in the north will have to go somewhere.
I don't know what is going to happen, which puts me fairly and squarely in with the rest of the populace.
The UK is undergoing its biggest political change in modern history. The recency effect can be persuasive in politics. If the government makes a hash of it, remember who is in the negotiating team, so nothing to fear there, then this will be a factor on the way people vote. It might also be a factor on what happens to May.
If history is anything to go by, and it is more dependable as a forecaster than Paddy Power, then any disaster in the tory party means infighting, and lots of it. Nothing more likely to put of the electorate.
But who knows what will happen? Not me and not anyone.
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Northern Labour seats will be squeezed by the Tories/UKIP, question is if Labour lose any who they lose them to.I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Scotland is yellow, so Labour can forget that completely. And their London seats aren't required by the Tories, because the rest of the country is a vast sea of blue.
Go look at a constituency map (in colour). Add in a possible loss of Labour seats via boundary change. Do the maths. It doesn't end up with a Labour win. Nor a Labour advance even.
Unless I've missed something and Corbyn is actually offering middle England something attractive and offering it in a manner in which they might take notice...
The only way Labour have any chance is if Brexit goes spectacularly wrong within the election timeframe, AND Labour install someone vaguely credible as leader. I'm not a gambler, but if I was and Corbyn is still on the scene I'd bet my house on the Tories being the next government.
Derek Smith said:
jonby said:
Bookies tend not to be stupid or give away their money un necessarily
It's a bit more complex that your post reads. Bookies judge their odds on their risk and this will depend on those who bet. Whilst it runs generally along the lines of the likely winner, the actual odds are not a dependable forecast, 'cause that's not what odds are.MarshPhantom said:
castroses said:
MarshPhantom said:
I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...
I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
You mean Labour?I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.
It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.
Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22
The critical number is the libdems, just nine seats, one of their lowest for some time. However, their infrastructure remains intact and they come and they go. I'd consider voting libdems next election depending on the likely leader.
The UKIP has lost its funding I believe and there are a few dissatisfied voters in Scotland who might vote tactically, and the left in the north will have to go somewhere.
I don't know what is going to happen, which puts me fairly and squarely in with the rest of the populace.
The UK is undergoing its biggest political change in modern history. The recency effect can be persuasive in politics. If the government makes a hash of it, remember who is in the negotiating team, so nothing to fear there, then this will be a factor on the way people vote. It might also be a factor on what happens to May.
If history is anything to go by, and it is more dependable as a forecaster than Paddy Power, then any disaster in the tory party means infighting, and lots of it. Nothing more likely to put of the electorate.
But who knows what will happen? Not me and not anyone.
Infighting - yes, even Tory MPs are massively anti-brexit. 185 Remain, 138 Leave.
Best of luck, Theresa.
Edited by MarshPhantom on Wednesday 18th January 21:45
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