Article 50 ruling due now

[MarshPhantom]

PRTVR said:

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

The big point is at the moment, the anti EU parties are gaining ground

Are they? Even our own government thought Brexit was a stupid idea.

[PH XKR]

Which government is that?

[b2hbm]

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

I don't think that's surprising, the idea of the EU dissolving or other nations leaving has always been media spin and the anti-EU parties have taken Brexit as something to boost their own agendas.

The countries you mention are the more prosperous northern states and most of their trade is with other EU countries, for example IIRC Austria's trade is(was) 2/3rd within the EU. France and Germany are the main players who run the club and Germany would be in serious trouble without the southern states dragging the value of the Euro downwards. The southern states may complain and argue but none of them have any chance of leaving whilst they're still getting the benefits of being part of a major international body (the EU) or financial/commercial support.

The UK is different. Own currency, less than 50% of EU trade and a net contributor for over 40 years. There aren't many in the EU who fit into that category. Almost all the other EU states trade with each other more than the RoW, so leaving doesn't make sense for them because they would be leaving their largest market behind. We're not.

[MarshPhantom]

PH XKR said:

Which government is that?

The one that won the last election. Don't you rememeber?

[LasseV]

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

Yes, you are right. In PH it is far more darker view about EU and it's future than what reality is. Netherlands last election did badly kick ass anti-Eu parties and France doesn't forget that help what EU did gave them after those horrific terrorist attacks. Some posters in PH doesn't recognize that Russia and Turkey does give a lot of pressure to Europe at the moment. It is far more easier to response when you have big boys club backing you up, like few weeks ago Netherlands vs Turkey. Pressure from outside will unite different nations i believe.

One thing is what we haven't talked about is did Russia get involved to Brexit vote. I'm sure that they did. And Brexit did make Putin happy. Weaker Europe is what he wants. However, after Brexit it is more easier to establish an EU army than before. NATO can't grow anymore but EU can gain more strength inside their borders. I personally see EU future far more brighter than year ago because of those votes and rapid economical growth in Greece and Finland etc.

[Guybrush]

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

If that's true, I think it cements the view (fact?) that we Brits are made of sterner stuff and are less afraid to break out of the shackles of big brother.

[turbobloke]

Guybrush said:

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

If that's true, I think it cements the view (fact?) that we Brits are made of sterner stuff and are less afraid to break out of the shackles of big brother.

It's wishful thinking in any case. By the same token, UKIP lost in the UK in 2010 and 2015 so the UK would never vote Leave. Then the UK voted to Leave.

The trend in the UK is ahead of other countries - a snapshot in any other country ignores the trend at its peril. Possibly some people don't want to confront the obvious trend across other EU countries because it's disconcerting and runs counter to their personal preferences.

Other countries may or may not leave the EU in the coming years but a snapshot tells us little without looking at the trend.

[LasseV]

pgh said:

You may have missed that in the Netherlands at least, the anti EU party increased their share of the vote. They won more seats than before, however, they didn't win the election overall.
I don't think that's going to be making anyone in the EU feel anymore optimistic.

I remember that there was predictions that anti-EU party does win the whole election, but outcome was totally different. In many cases i think anti-EU parties are just populism.

[Burwood]

turbobloke said:

Guybrush said:

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

If that's true, I think it cements the view (fact?) that we Brits are made of sterner stuff and are less afraid to break out of the shackles of big brother.

It's wishful thinking in any case. By the same token, UKIP lost in the UK in 2010 and 2015 so the UK would never vote Leave. Then the UK voted to Leave.

The trend in the UK is ahead of other countries - a snapshot in any other country ignores the trend at its peril. Possibly some people don't want to confront the obvious trend across other EU countries because it's disconcerting and runs counter to their personal preferences.

Other countries may or may not leave the EU in the coming years but a snapshot tells us little without looking at the trend.

Too kind in the use of 'wishful'. the post is completely false. It's split down the middle. 49%/51% leave the EU (across all member states populace).

[turbobloke]

Burwood said:

turbobloke said:

Guybrush said:

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

If that's true, I think it cements the view (fact?) that we Brits are made of sterner stuff and are less afraid to break out of the shackles of big brother.

It's wishful thinking in any case. By the same token, UKIP lost in the UK in 2010 and 2015 so the UK would never vote Leave. Then the UK voted to Leave.

The trend in the UK is ahead of other countries - a snapshot in any other country ignores the trend at its peril. Possibly some people don't want to confront the obvious trend across other EU countries because it's disconcerting and runs counter to their personal preferences.

Other countries may or may not leave the EU in the coming years but a snapshot tells us little without looking at the trend.

Too kind in the use of 'wishful'. the post is completely false. It's split down the middle. 49%/51% leave the EU (across all member states populace).

And in terms of the trend, you have to wonder what the position was before the EU's Greek tragedy, also what it will be like after the next EU tragedy.

[PurpleAki]

LasseV said:

One thing is what we haven't talked about is did Russia get involved to Brexit vote. I'm sure that they did.

I await your proof.

[Burwood]

PurpleAki said:

LasseV said:

One thing is what we haven't talked about is did Russia get involved to Brexit vote. I'm sure that they did.

I await your proof.

The administrator at our Village hall (voting) was definitely Putin in drag

[turbobloke]

pgh said:

LasseV said:

I remember that there was predictions that anti-EU party does win the whole election, but outcome was totally different. In many cases i think anti-EU parties are just populism.

Populism! To me that's just a word used to sneer at the concept of democracy and 'little people' who are, of course, so hard of thought that its a terrible shame they have a vote at all...

If only they'd traveled more in Europe, then they'd understand. If only they had more international jobs, they'd never have voted that way etc.

It's rather silly.

Stick a label on something to sneer at and hope it will go away.

That's bound to work well

[paulrockliffe]

It is true, but it's rather disingenuous. The only reason Italy, France, the Netherlands and Austria are still there is that the people haven't been asked directly in a binary referendum.

The way elections take place make it very difficult for a party campaigning on a single issue to win, because voting takes into account all the other considerations. There are no mainstream EU exit parties that have significant credibility/history of government in any of those countries and there is always a huge swing towards the status quo and the parties that grandparents and parents voted for. France is particularly difficult because there is the option for everyone to vote and see how everyone else voted before swinging behind the Anyone But Le Pen option in the second round. She would walk it under the UK's electoral system.

Consider UKIP and electoral success vs whether that meant the people wanted to stay in the EU or not.

Austrian wasn't a proper election and Italy is conspicuous by its absence from the list. It's over-due an election. Hungarians would vote to leave and Greece would leave in a heart beat if they weren't in the Euro.

[paulrockliffe]

Anyway, having read that resolution that's supposed to go before the EU, it's rather aggressive isn't it. Though I note that it's not binding, presumably because the Commission only have any say at the invitation of the Council. So how much is posturing and how much is the reality will certainly be interesting to find out.

A lot of it fails logically, especially where it tries to separate out different elements to disconnect them. Security cooperation can't be linked to trade, yet of course it is. There's no deal to be done on security cooperation as the EU have little to offer, so are they going to pay for access to our intel, while we pay for access to their market? Maybe we could net that off.....

No trade agreement linked to exit bill (no mention of assets again), yet if we agree to a daft bill to leave and they don't make that worth our while via the trade deal, we'll just walk away from everything.

Everything is linked.

Then of course the EU lose a large market, lose access to the funding that is keeping the EU out of recession at a cliff edge. Not good all round, but while the UK would ride it out one way or another, there's no way the EU would survive that given the wider EU political context. As a construct it's balanced on a knife edge, I'd expect Italy to go pretty quickly and trigger a terminal Target 2 debt write-off.

As a negotiating position, it hugely over-plays the EUs hand, hopefully through political posturing rather than conceit.

[Northern Munkee]

I thought Greece are preparing for another bailout request? Youth unemployment in the southern states is appalling, migrant season is about to get started and the EU cant make a tough decision, it suffers from slow growth with only Germany enjoying prosperity, but that'll creak under the migrant burden it's given itself, there's almost certainly going to be more terrorism, with the return from Syria of IS fighters particularly to France & Belgium (which means across Schengen) and Turkey well it might just reopen the taps on the Balkan route. Any of that could materially effect the coming elections. Of course the EU may well blame everything on the guy not in the room anymore and somehow all of that is the fault of Brexit.

First out of the door is not panicking. Self determination and having hold of all the levers, in the long term, must be for the best, if we hold are nerve. I'm not convinced by May, she makes generally good speeches, she always has, but her record of delivery is not great. She is the best person in any party right now, to lead the country, and as a remainer she is carrying out the instruction of the country, which is as impressive, as it is surprising that in itself suggests power has been moved closer to the people of the UK, and politicians in the U.K. are more accountable to the electorate, witness Labour MPs voting with their constituents views rather than their own - that's representative democracy.. And for that reason alone if she feels the need & calls an election, I'll vote Tory for the first time to see it through.

It's not without its risks and problems of course but on balance I believe it will be for the best.

Edited by Northern Munkee on Thursday 30th March 08:33

[Digga]

Yipper said:

The anti-EU uprising across Europe is fizzling out.

For now, the tidal wave of anti-Brexit propaganda has slammed the brakes on Europe's far-right and and anti-EU parties.

Britain won...
Austria lost...
Netherlands lost...
France will lose...
Germany will lose...

Like it or not, the pro-EU parties are winning ~80% of elections and referendums at the moment.

That's as maybe, but the EU itself, or certainly the Eurozone, is in danger of fizzling out too. So they may well chose to remain - the Devil they know - and, FWIW, for some of them it is probably the right and sensible choice, but to what they remain with, especially once the UK stop contributing to the EU coffers and the technical problems within the Euro continue unresolved, is anyone's guess.

There's a lot being made of the Eurocrat's final "kick in the balls" for the UK; this payment to exit. However, in practice - and what they expect us to pay and whether we even pay it - pales into insignificance compared to our previous, ongoing support of an organisation that actually did very little for the UK and was a perpetual drain on our funds and thorn in the side of much of our economy.

The key reason for the EU's accounts never passing audit was not on the collection side, but the disbursement side and, at that, from a few notable miscreants, not least Italy. 'Our' money has not been spent fairly or wisely. (You only have to look at the presence of Italian businesses at certain international trade shows to smell a rat.) I have no faith in the idea that, without the UK's contribution, there will be a sudden shift toward probity.

[Northern Munkee]

paulrockliffe said:

A lot of it fails logically, especially where it tries to separate out different elements to disconnect them. Security cooperation can't be linked to trade, yet of course it is. There's no deal to be done on security cooperation as the EU have little to offer, so are they going to pay for access to our intel, while we pay for access to their market? Maybe we could net that off.....

No trade agreement linked to exit bill (no mention of assets again), yet if we agree to a daft bill to leave and they don't make that worth our while via the trade deal, we'll just walk away from everything.

Everything is linked.

Of course it is. All this bullst about not using people as bargaining chips, or that security has nothing to do with trade, is bullst. States do it all the time. The UK could have spent its defence budget or put its intelligence budget into the NHS, it didn't. The sea lanes for trade are only free from pirates, or rogue nations due to the knowledge that a navy will be along shortly if you interfere with trade to sink you. It's not the EU patrolling the North Atlantic keeping an eye on Russia subs and planes, of course Germany could spend 2% of its GDP on defence, it doesn't, it chooses not to. And relies on NATO and Europe particularly on the US and its presence for its security to protect it from external threats, and it could choose to spend its GDP elsewhere. Thank you USA. & The EU experiment would be royally stuffed.

[Murph7355]

MarshPhantom said:

Are they? Even our own government thought Brexit was a stupid idea.

Governments are there to serve the people. As ours proved, if there is enough public support, the tide will eventually turn.

LePen may not ultimately be the one who calls a referendum in France, but unless the EU changes I can readily see someone doing so at some point. Maybe not for a couple of parliaments, but as noted above the trend is not currently diminishing support for these ideas. It's notching up gradually.

The point on trade is a good one. But trade/economics alone are not necessarily the be all and end all. And as large markets such as our own leave the club, those arguments will erode. Especially if we are seen to be able to be adaptable and succeed.

[turbobloke]

Cameron thought Brexit was a bad idea, the basis he gave for this view has so far proved to be tosh.

With CMD of that view then 'the government' could loosely be described as having that view. Osborne wanted CMD's job so he would have thought it a good idea regardless, and he paid the same price as CMD for getting it wrong.

There were more than a few Conservative MPs in favour of Brexit, and now with Article 50 invoked, their view is prevailing.