Article 50 ruling due now

[loafer123]

There was a very apt letter in the Telegraph today;

SIR – A much-respected head of a German multinational company, himself German, and a Europhile, once said to me: “One thing which one has learnt in business and from history is that one should never back the British into a corner.”
Our friends in Brussels should take note.
Jeff Snowden
Bardsey, West Yorkshire

[alfie2244]

More like May gave him a cup of Earl Grey rather than copious amounts of his usual tipple.

[anonymous-user]

I would be amazed if Junker could remember anything from that meeting. He was pissed as a fart before he even got into Number 10, walking the wrong way up downing street when he got out of the car.

The footage online only shows him on the last few steps before he meets May, but the live footage was hilarious as he got out of the car and went the wrong way until an aide grabbed him and turned him round.

How this buffoon still holds a senior post in the EU is a scandal.

[Thorodin]

Theresa has them all sussed. They are desperate to save face and to present a strong image. They are also trying very hard to provoke an angry reaction from her so they can present her as a troublemaker. This aggression is predictable but out of order, reasonable people only adopt this as a tactic when they feel threatened. They are running scared of UK walking away as a result of their own obduracy in key areas and can't afford to take a favourable (to UK) line. She is maintaining her composure, exactly what is needed and it won't be the first time UK has been underestimated. An increased majority in HoC will only serve to strengthen her hand.

[turbobloke]

Thorodin said:

Theresa has them all sussed. They are desperate to save face and to present a strong image. They are also trying very hard to provoke an angry reaction from her so they can present her as a troublemaker. This aggression is predictable but out of order, reasonable people only adopt this as a tactic when they feel threatened. They are running scared of UK walking away as a result of their own obduracy in key areas and can't afford to take a favourable (to UK) line. She is maintaining her composure, exactly what is needed and it won't be the first time UK has been underestimated. An increased majority in HoC will only serve to strengthen her hand.

Spot on.

[frankenstein12]

turbobloke said:

Thorodin said:

Theresa has them all sussed. They are desperate to save face and to present a strong image. They are also trying very hard to provoke an angry reaction from her so they can present her as a troublemaker. This aggression is predictable but out of order, reasonable people only adopt this as a tactic when they feel threatened. They are running scared of UK walking away as a result of their own obduracy in key areas and can't afford to take a favourable (to UK) line. She is maintaining her composure, exactly what is needed and it won't be the first time UK has been underestimated. An increased majority in HoC will only serve to strengthen her hand.

Spot on.

Certainly seems a reasonable position. It is reasonable to take the position that the EU are running scared hence their behaviour.. Reality is they do have a lot to lose from the UK leaving not least the financial side of things. The EU is going to have major issues dealing with the financial fallout from the UK no longer playing a part in its schemes.

All the remaining states will have to share out the tab the UK paid in which given we were the second largest contributor is going to cause nightmares as most of the 27 are already struggling financially.

That is the thing I really do not understand. Technically they are at a higher risk of collapse by forcing the UK to walk away altogether with no deal than by working with the UK to agree a mutually beneficial separation.

Reality is while the public may not go for it too well providing they allowed a decent deal the UK gov could no doubt swing it that we agree to help provide funds as the UK sees fit to help our European neighbours even if simply in the form of interest free long term loans.

Yes the UK public would whine about us "paying into the EU" but the caveat would be that our paying in would be on OUR terms not the EU's. They would not be able to simply demand endless sums.

Unfortunately anyone seen as being not 100% fanatical about the European project is seen as a threat.

[Thorodin]

This is all rather basic Kidology.

1. You first create what seems an atmosphere of ruthlessness and the hopelessness of your opponents position.
2. Then you threaten with a high value gambit under the assumption that you are striking your vulnerable adversary in a vital and weak point.
3. You hope this has the effect the other side will, under guise of 'diplomacy', cave in rather risk total humiliation.

EG: 1. the 'divorce bill'.
2. the deliberate controlled leak of confidential information knowing the other side will not reciprocate out of 'honour' which you know
they have. The 'not me guv' ploy.
3. use your supporters in the opposite camp to disrupt and cause unrest. The 'Trojan Horse'.

It all assumes that your opponent lacks determination or resolve and is weak. These people are not strategists. They are used to command without question from their protected (i,e. bought and paid for) exalted position and will not tolerate disobedience. Because their hierarchy is built on preferment rather than merit they don't understand the meaning of negotiation, their arrogance being their downfall. When confronted by skilful opposition they run scared and cry 'foul'.

In Theresa May and Davis we have suitably hard and canny operators who are doing exactly the same to them and they don't even know it!

[frankenstein12]

I forgot to note that basically it seems madness for the EU to alienate the UK in this process instead of simply working with us and coming to a reasonable and adult amicable agreement.

Alienating the UK is an extremely dangerous game to play as any goodwill from the UK towards the EU post brexit goes out the window not simply politically but publicly.

If they basically push us out and make the UK public hugely resentful towards them if they ever need the UK's help it will be very unlikely to be forthcoming regardless of purpose as our politicians will know that to help the EU when the majority of the public couldnt give a fk about them would not be good for their careers.

[paulrockliffe]

hornetrider said:

So it seems the phoney PR leak offensive has begun from our European friends. Juncker et al leaking that Theresa is delusional with regards to our obligations and responsibilities.

Have some decorum and negotiate properly in confidence with some respect you fools. This kind of language is inflammatory.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/jean-cl...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/01/how-...

This guy is largely irrelevant in this, his meetings and trips and leaks are all part of his own strategy for making people think he matters. He doesn't.

If you look at the things he's saying, they're demonstrably untrue, the EUs adopted approach doesn't require us to pay a load of cash before we can talk about trade and everything else, it's all signed as one, so if the deal on cash is bad for the UK then the cost of access to our market, access to lending via London and our security services information gets more expensive. It which point the EU might want to go back to that unsigned memorandum on assets and liabilities....

Besides, I thought we weren't negotiating until we're negotiating?

[anonymous-user]

The EU member state governments are not happy with pisshead Junker.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-0...

[loafer123]

jsf said:

The EU member state governments are not happy with pisshead Junker.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-0...

As I said yesterday on another thread:

As it becomes increasingly clear that the EU does not want a deal to happen in order to protect the institution from the threat of others leaving, the power will shift to Merkel and other key leaders who are more concerned about their economies than the "project".

The only thing that will push the EU into behaving will be their fear that we make a success out of a Clean Brexit, which will break the dam.

[amusingduck]

jsf said:

The EU member state governments are not happy with pisshead Junker.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-0...

Whenever I see his name mentioned, I can't help but remember this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMV2tfk3PXQ

[hyphen]

As Article 50 is being interpreted different by the EU and the UK regarding simultaneous talks regarding trade any any liabilities the UK owes, why does the UK not lodge a case with the EU courts to get clarification?

[Murph7355]

hyphen said:

As Article 50 is being interpreted different by the EU and the UK regarding simultaneous talks regarding trade any any liabilities the UK owes, why does the UK not lodge a case with the EU courts to get clarification?

Not sure why we'd bother. Especially as things are panning out.

Let Juncker and his buffoons say what they like. Agree the payments and the other two key areas they want up front - they have to be dealt with anyway so who cares what the order is. Just don't sign anything until the rest comes to the table and gets sorted.

If I were on May's side of the table I would be laughing my tits off at the last few days. Juncker is a clown, and if Merkel and Macron plus a few other luminaries have any sense at all they'll be yanking his leash very hard. The UK could not ask for any better ally than JCJ if he keeps this up.

[Jockman]

Murph7355 said:

If I were on May's side of the table I would be laughing my tits off at the last few days. Juncker is a clown, and if Merkel and Macron plus a few other luminaries have any sense at all they'll be yanking his leash very hard. The UK could not ask for any better ally than JCJ if he keeps this up.

Perhaps he has taken things personally? The EU potentially loses 15% of its GDP on his watch?

[Murph7355]

Jockman said:

Perhaps he has taken things personally? The EU potentially loses 15% of its GDP on his watch?

And its second biggest net contributor.

The EU is rapidly discovering the downside of promoting idiots out of the way and beyond their competency level.

[wc98]

Jockman said:

Murph7355 said:

If I were on May's side of the table I would be laughing my tits off at the last few days. Juncker is a clown, and if Merkel and Macron plus a few other luminaries have any sense at all they'll be yanking his leash very hard. The UK could not ask for any better ally than JCJ if he keeps this up.

Perhaps he has taken things personally? The EU potentially loses 15% of its GDP on his watch?

and so he should . his behaviour over the years surely contributed to anti eu feeling in the uk significantly.