UK car industry trouble ahead..?

[citizensm1th]

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

well technically america but soon to be france ( General Motors assumed full control in 1931)

I think the German government would see that very differently in the same way the the UK government would raise an interest if things were happening to Jaguar Land Rover which in the same view is Indian.

the last time the German government had a interest in opel was during ww2 ,if psa buy opel the french government will have a very big interest,if as some think le pen wins where do you think those opel jobs will be going?

and if that happened do you think the German government would just sit back and go "oh yeah no problem just close the factories and make our workers redundant"?

and what exactly do you think they could do about it ? invade the french again? they could do no more than we could ,besides the jobs that would be moving are british based jobs

[craigjm]

citizensm1th said:

and what exactly do you think they could do about it ? invade the french again? they could do no more than we could ,besides the jobs that would be moving are british based jobs

Exactly, they are not going to move the jobs from Germany because being in the EU, it would make no difference. The British jobs, outside of the EU would go first and then, and only then, German jobs if necessary.

[Murph7355]

craigjm said:

...suppliers and manufacturers that could rightly do without any kind of protectionist intervention from governments if it is going to function correctly. ...

And yet all bar 28 nations (soon to be 27) seem to manage just fine....

craigjm said:

Scale which would in terms of sales make them the biggest group behind VAG, overtaking Renault Nissan and therefore reduced costs and probably the most important thing to PSA, access to the US market.

I think scale only works so far. And Vauxhall/Opel products are really quite different to current PSA ones (equally st in some areas Though these days I'd always be attracted more by PSA "flair" than....whatever Vauxhall offer now).

The line into the US and other markets might actually be an interesting angle though...maybe this will end up being a fantastic hedge for les grandes fromages at PSA. They maintain the internal EU benefits (such as they are), but also give themselves a channel for if the UK manages to sort good trade relationships with markets outside of the EU ahead of the EU (looking increasingly likely - US, Australasia, Japan etc).

(btw, writing this prompted me to look at who the EU currently has trade deals with bearing in mind many Remainers seem to note what a loss these would be and how hard it'll be for us to sort them. Had a little chuckle...).

[citizensm1th]

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

and what exactly do you think they could do about it ? invade the french again? they could do no more than we could ,besides the jobs that would be moving are british based jobs

Exactly, they are not going to move the jobs from Germany because being in the EU, it would make no difference. The British jobs, outside of the EU would go first and then, and only then, German jobs if necessary.

I never said they would move jobs from germany

[craigjm]

citizensm1th said:

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

and what exactly do you think they could do about it ? invade the french again? they could do no more than we could ,besides the jobs that would be moving are british based jobs

Exactly, they are not going to move the jobs from Germany because being in the EU, it would make no difference. The British jobs, outside of the EU would go first and then, and only then, German jobs if necessary.

I never said they would move jobs from germany

No you didnt, but it is obvious to any casual observer that the UK jobs would be going first

[powerstroke]

craigjm said:

No you didnt, but it is obvious to any casual observer that the UK jobs would be going first

I think a well read observer would think the uk would be a very useful non EU base to export from ( you do realise other places and not just europe buy cars

[craigjm]

powerstroke said:

craigjm said:

No you didnt, but it is obvious to any casual observer that the UK jobs would be going first

I think a well read observer would think the uk would be a very useful non EU base to export from ( you do realise other places and not just europe buy cars

Indeed, but it all depends on which trading block has the best trade deals and as yet we have none as soon as we step outside of the EU. If we do well then yes it could be viable but the British plants have never been as efficient as the German ones so it would depend on whether our newly signed trade deals made up for that and provided a better situation. Problem is, right now, our trade deals are an unknown whereas the EU based trade deals are known quantities.

[Murph7355]

craigjm said:

No you didnt, but it is obvious to any casual observer that the UK jobs would be going first

Not necessarily.

Consensus seemed to be that Nissan would cut Sunderland adrift...but that didn't happen.

Question is, do the UK Vauxhall plants merit staying open?

[craigjm]

Murph7355 said:

Question is, do the UK Vauxhall plants merit staying open?

They have been operating under capacity for a long time

[powerstroke]

craigjm said:

Indeed, but it all depends on which trading block has the best trade deals and as yet we have none as soon as we step outside of the EU. If we do well then yes it could be viable but the British plants have never been as efficient as the German ones so it would depend on whether our newly signed trade deals made up for that and provided a better situation. Problem is, right now, our trade deals are an unknown whereas the EU based trade deals are known quantities.

Thing is the Eu is very much an unknown quantity whereas the US , Australia and others have made the right noises about a trade deal ..
The EU on the other hand is in a no win situation , give us a workable deal and the other members that have leaving on there minds are emboldened ,
Don't give us a deal and we walk away and make new friends and deals and the EU industy and trade suffers not just losing a big market for goods but also respect ,

[craigjm]

powerstroke said:

craigjm said:

Indeed, but it all depends on which trading block has the best trade deals and as yet we have none as soon as we step outside of the EU. If we do well then yes it could be viable but the British plants have never been as efficient as the German ones so it would depend on whether our newly signed trade deals made up for that and provided a better situation. Problem is, right now, our trade deals are an unknown whereas the EU based trade deals are known quantities.

Thing is the Eu is very much an unknown quantity whereas the US , Australia and others have made the right noises about a trade deal ..
The EU on the other hand is in a no win situation , give us a workable deal and the other members that have leaving on there minds are emboldened ,
Don't give us a deal and we walk away and make new friends and deals and the EU industy and trade suffers not just losing a big market for goods but also respect ,

It is all a big unknown. Right noises does not make a trade deal. We will just have to see wont we but if its a European company making decisions then I wouldnt bank on them putting UK jobs first after exit but who knows?!

[powerstroke]

craigjm said:

It is all a big unknown. Right noises does not make a trade deal. We will just have to see wont we but if its a European company making decisions then I wouldnt bank on them putting UK jobs first after exit but who knows?!

No but people high up in the EU say we must be punished for daring to leave the others have said they would like to do a deal!!!! BIG difference..

[craigjm]

powerstroke said:

No but people high up in the EU say we must be punished for daring to leave the others have said they would like to do a deal BIG difference

Yeah but the negotiations havent started yet so its all just bluster until it ends up in ink and signed. Only then do we know if we are better or worse off and during that limbo time companies must make decisions based on what they know.

[powerstroke]

craigjm said:

Yeah but the negotiations havent started yet so its all just bluster until it ends up in ink and signed. Only then do we know if we are better or worse off and during that limbo time companies must make decisions based on what they know.

Yes true but we are leaving our current arrangement with the EU we don't know how long the EU will last if it will change or what will replace it , I doubt VAG,BMW,MB volvo truck and bus Fiat ,PSA scania or any other people will want the EU to punish us and if it did and jepodised business in Germany it won't be the EU for long , no one knows but I"m confident good business will win over keeping a load of pen pushers in a comfotable job , the car market here is way bigger than our output of localy built cars and we have a tiny comercail vehicle manufacturing capacity so whatever happens we will need to be a net importer of vehicles or make more here
so anyone closing a factory would need to think long and hard ..

[s2art]

craigjm said:

Murph7355 said:

Question is, do the UK Vauxhall plants merit staying open?

They have been operating under capacity for a long time

My understanding is that the E.P plant is very competitive. And its much cheaper to hire and fire in the UK. Thats a two edged sword, but with the UK set to do a trade deal with the US it may be sensible to wait and use British plant as the best option to export to the US.

[craigjm]

s2art said:

craigjm said:

Murph7355 said:

Question is, do the UK Vauxhall plants merit staying open?

They have been operating under capacity for a long time

My understanding is that the E.P plant is very competitive. And its much cheaper to hire and fire in the UK. Thats a two edged sword, but with the UK set to do a trade deal with the US it may be sensible to wait and use British plant as the best option to export to the US.

I dont disagree but sense doesnt always prevail in business.

[Yipper]

Liokault said:

Yipper said:

Robots and AI will eventually replace the craft-workers and also the managers. Nobody, from the bottom to top, is safe. A financial hedge fund in New York, for example, is on track to replace 50% of its own CEO's role with an AI bot by 2020.
.

I can't see it. I can see forumaic jobs going to AI, but I can't see craftsman ship or development jobs going.

I can see how accountancy of medicine can be done by an AI, it's a formula basically, easily done...plug in the symptoms, figures, get a tax demand/prescription out.

How are you going to get an AI to tile your bathroom? How is an AI going to trim a car seat when a human can't get it right more than 75% of the time?

I had to bin £1000's of pounds of prototype parts last week and missed them from a homologation round due to human error, that's a whole team of highly paid (german ironically) engineers messed up a part due to simply not realising it wouldn't fit....its a cad model and everything...why will an AI do it better?

Artifical intelligence (AI) is set to surpass human intelligence by roughly 2030. Machine learning (ML) will self-teach the robot to practice tiling a bathroom until it gets it right. The robot will not get bored, it will not give up, and it will practice 24hrs a day until it gets it right. There is already a robot building basic houses, called Hadrian X. It can build an entire house in 2 days. Right now. Today. The revolution has only just begun.

Today, an average robot has the skills of a 5 yearold. By 2035, it will be around a 20 year old. And by 2050, a 40 yearold. The "robot gap" to humans is closing and will soon be closed.

Another factor to keep in mind is that the UK right now has a "robot ratio" of just 75 robots per 10k manufacturing employees. Compare this with South Korea, which has around a ratio around 500. Britain could increase 6 times its robot workforce and still have relatively fewer robots than South Korea. There is huge scope to expand the robot workforce in the UK. Huge scope.

In other words, the quantity and quality of robots are leaping forward at a very quick, perhaps alarming,, pace.

Edited by Yipper on Tuesday 21st February 00:41

[Jonesy23]

I could spend the time to point out all the things you have wrong, but it isn't worth the effort.

And I'm not sure the forum rules would let me use a 'bot to do the job for me.

[stuckmojo]

selective quote

[quote]Today, an average robot has the skills of a 5 yearold. By 2035, it will be around a 20 year old. And by 2050, a 40 yearold. The "robot gap" to humans is closing and will soon be closed.[quote]

I'd say that IF the robot will have the skills of a 20 year old in 2035, it will have the skills of a 40 year old about a week later.

[Leroy902]

If a company is making record profits, and have been for a good few years, in my opinion there's no justification for leaving their employers out of pocket to please its shareholders.