UK car industry trouble ahead..?

[Liokault]

Yipper said:

Robots and AI will eventually replace the craft-workers and also the managers. Nobody, from the bottom to top, is safe. A financial hedge fund in New York, for example, is on track to replace 50% of its own CEO's role with an AI bot by 2020.
.

I can't see it. I can see forumaic jobs going to AI, but I can't see craftsman ship or development jobs going.

I can see how accountancy of medicine can be done by an AI, it's a formula basically, easily done...plug in the symptoms, figures, get a tax demand/prescription out.

How are you going to get an AI to tile your bathroom? How is an AI going to trim a car seat when a human can't get it right more than 75% of the time?

I had to bin £1000's of pounds of prototype parts last week and missed them from a homologation round due to human error, that's a whole team of highly paid (german ironically) engineers messed up a part due to simply not realising it wouldn't fit....its a cad model and everything...why will an AI do it better?

[craigjm]

Liokault said:

ou sont les biscuits said:

Post Brexit, outside the single market and probably the customs union, any factory that works on a just in time principle and which imports 75% of its 'bits' from the EU is, I suspect, going to be in deep st. Unless somehow, TM gets a deal where customs delays can't and don't happen. I wouldn't hold my breath for that though.

Either that or they will start buying things from the UK...not much is made in Europe that can't be had locally. Anything Unique tends to be from outside the EU anyway.

I do this for a living, in the last few years I have sourced generic parts from EU, generally plastic mouldings and simple metal parts, but I have also sourced parts from Mexico, USA, Japan and South africa.

Brexit is just a huge opertunity for local suppliers.

They will more likely just move the production to Germany and stick with what they know. Its a bit tough to buy Bosch injection systems and ZF gearboxes locally in the UK

[Liokault]

We don't have to buy everything locally, just that it's now a massive opportunity for local suppliers. Also, why wouldn't Bosch look at moving some production to the UK to avoid tariffs and take advantage of the lower pound!

When I was in Russia, we HAD to source 75% of the vehicle (2nd gen Focus) locally or be hit with a massive import tariff. If you can source 75% of a Ford Focus just from within Russia, why would it be a problem from within the UK.

[craigjm]

Liokault said:

We don't have to buy everything locally, just that it's now a massive opportunity for local suppliers. Also, why wouldn't Bosch look at moving some production to the UK to avoid tariffs and take advantage of the lower pound!

When I was in Russia, we HAD to source 75% of the vehicle (2nd gen Focus) locally or be hit with a massive import tariff. If you can source 75% of a Ford Focus just from within Russia, why would it be a problem from within the UK.

The UK market is tiny in comparison to the whole of the EU or the whole of Russia though

[Liokault]

craigjm said:

Liokault said:

We don't have to buy everything locally, just that it's now a massive opportunity for local suppliers. Also, why wouldn't Bosch look at moving some production to the UK to avoid tariffs and take advantage of the lower pound!

When I was in Russia, we HAD to source 75% of the vehicle (2nd gen Focus) locally or be hit with a massive import tariff. If you can source 75% of a Ford Focus just from within Russia, why would it be a problem from within the UK.

The UK market is tiny in comparison to the whole of the EU or the whole of Russia though

Dude, seriously, why are you deliberately taking a negative view. Yes the UK is tiny compared to the whole of the EU, but you might as well say it's tiny compared to the Milky Way Galaxy. We are Germany's single biggest export market, as a nation we are not insignificant, we are for example much bigger than a russia and Turkey put together.

http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//pc-sales-2...

[craigjm]

Liokault said:

craigjm said:

Liokault said:

We don't have to buy everything locally, just that it's now a massive opportunity for local suppliers. Also, why wouldn't Bosch look at moving some production to the UK to avoid tariffs and take advantage of the lower pound!

When I was in Russia, we HAD to source 75% of the vehicle (2nd gen Focus) locally or be hit with a massive import tariff. If you can source 75% of a Ford Focus just from within Russia, why would it be a problem from within the UK.

The UK market is tiny in comparison to the whole of the EU or the whole of Russia though

Dude, seriously, why are you deliberately taking a negative view. Yes the UK is tiny compared to the whole of the EU, but you might as well say it's tiny compared to the Milky Way Galaxy. We are Germany's single biggest export market, as a nation we are not insignificant, we are for example much bigger than a russia and Turkey put together.

http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//pc-sales-2...

Im not taking a negative view. The problem with the car industry is that it is an international web of raw materials, suppliers and manufacturers that could rightly do without any kind of protectionist intervention from governments if it is going to function correctly. Unfortunately we don't live in such a simple world and decisions in the boardroom will be made on the basis of ease vs profit and if, like GM Europe, there is unused capacity on the continent and a likelihood that two UK factories running far from capacity may end up outside of your trading block the simple decision would be to transfer the production. PSA were in a mess themselves not so long ago and a lot of that was based on over capacity. What is their easy option?

[s2art]

craigjm said:

Im not taking a negative view. The problem with the car industry is that it is an international web of raw materials, suppliers and manufacturers that could rightly do without any kind of protectionist intervention from governments if it is going to function correctly. Unfortunately we don't live in such a simple world and decisions in the boardroom will be made on the basis of ease vs profit and if, like GM Europe, there is unused capacity on the continent and a likelihood that two UK factories running far from capacity may end up outside of your trading block the simple decision would be to transfer the production. PSA were in a mess themselves not so long ago and a lot of that was based on over capacity. What is their easy option?

I get GM wanting to get rid of a loss making branch, what I dont get is what do PSA get out of it?

[Liokault]

craigjm said:

Im not taking a negative view. The problem with the car industry is that it is an international web of raw materials, suppliers and manufacturers that could rightly do without any kind of protectionist intervention from governments if it is going to function correctly. Unfortunately we don't live in such a simple world and decisions in the boardroom will be made on the basis of ease vs profit and if, like GM Europe, there is unused capacity on the continent and a likelihood that two UK factories running far from capacity may end up outside of your trading block the simple decision would be to transfer the production. PSA were in a mess themselves not so long ago and a lot of that was based on over capacity. What is their easy option?

Yes, Opal were looking at closing plants a few years back....they closed Bokum in Germany rather than a UK plant.....guess where I was working....Bokum.

[craigjm]

s2art said:

I get GM wanting to get rid of a loss making branch, what I dont get is what do PSA get out of it?

Scale which would in terms of sales make them the biggest group behind VAG, overtaking Renault Nissan and therefore reduced costs and probably the most important thing to PSA, access to the US market.

[citizensm1th]

Liokault said:

craigjm said:

Liokault said:

We don't have to buy everything locally, just that it's now a massive opportunity for local suppliers. Also, why wouldn't Bosch look at moving some production to the UK to avoid tariffs and take advantage of the lower pound!

When I was in Russia, we HAD to source 75% of the vehicle (2nd gen Focus) locally or be hit with a massive import tariff. If you can source 75% of a Ford Focus just from within Russia, why would it be a problem from within the UK.

The UK market is tiny in comparison to the whole of the EU or the whole of Russia though

Dude, seriously, why are you deliberately taking a negative view. Yes the UK is tiny compared to the whole of the EU, but you might as well say it's tiny compared to the Milky Way Galaxy. We are Germany's single biggest export market, as a nation we are not insignificant, we are for example much bigger than a russia and Turkey put together.

http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//pc-sales-2...

I am puzzled as to why you think it will have anything to do with ze germans if a french company (part state owned) buy Opel?

[craigjm]

citizensm1th said:

I am puzzled as to why you think it will have anything to do with ze germans if a french company (part state owned) buy Opel?

remind me which country Opel is based in?

[powerstroke]

craigjm said:

Scale which would in terms of sales make them the biggest group behind VAG, overtaking Renault Nissan and therefore reduced costs and probably the most important thing to PSA, access to the US market.

So its lucky they might end up with a bridgehead to the US here seeing as we look like getting a trade deal with them ... No good making them in an EU country is it unless Trump is empeached and clinton signs TTIP Oh and regards parts out of the EU to source parts from Europe would cost more , we would buy from our trading partners in Japan and the USA etc, Its a win win Quality denso,hitachi or stty spanish and french electrics ??

Edited by powerstroke on Sunday 19th February 19:58

[s2art]

craigjm said:

s2art said:

I get GM wanting to get rid of a loss making branch, what I dont get is what do PSA get out of it?

Scale which would in terms of sales make them the biggest group behind VAG, overtaking Renault Nissan and therefore reduced costs and probably the most important thing to PSA, access to the US market.

Why would it give them better access to the US market? For that matter, if Opel are making large losses now, how could PSA turn it around when GM couldnt. Its all very well increasing scale, but Opel was big enough just by itself, with GM, to get any benefits of scale.

[craigjm]

s2art said:

Why would it give them better access to the US market? For that matter, if Opel are making large losses now, how could PSA turn it around when GM couldnt. Its all very well increasing scale, but Opel was big enough just by itself, with GM, to get any benefits of scale.

Better access because its not a wholesale sale and GM will be retaining a foothold and part of the agreement is access to US and, for GM, a grounding for its own cars in Europe.

The benefits of scale are for PSA to reap. They have a very different business model to GM.

I never said it was a good idea. These are the promoted benefits in the financial media. I will be amazed if it works because PSA were in the same boat not so long ago

[citizensm1th]

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

I am puzzled as to why you think it will have anything to do with ze germans if a french company (part state owned) buy Opel?

remind me which country Opel is based in?

well technically america but soon to be france ( General Motors assumed full control in 1931)

[craigjm]

citizensm1th said:

well technically america but soon to be france ( General Motors assumed full control in 1931)

I think the German government would see that very differently in the same way the the UK government would raise an interest if things were happening to Jaguar Land Rover which in the same view is Indian.

[citizensm1th]

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

well technically america but soon to be france ( General Motors assumed full control in 1931)

I think the German government would see that very differently in the same way the the UK government would raise an interest if things were happening to Jaguar Land Rover which in the same view is Indian.

the last time the German government had a interest in opel was during ww2 ,if psa buy opel the french government will have a very big interest,if as some think le pen wins where do you think those opel jobs will be going?

[craigjm]

citizensm1th said:

craigjm said:

citizensm1th said:

well technically america but soon to be france ( General Motors assumed full control in 1931)

I think the German government would see that very differently in the same way the the UK government would raise an interest if things were happening to Jaguar Land Rover which in the same view is Indian.

the last time the German government had a interest in opel was during ww2 ,if psa buy opel the french government will have a very big interest,if as some think le pen wins where do you think those opel jobs will be going?

and if that happened do you think the German government would just sit back and go "oh yeah no problem just close the factories and make our workers redundant"?

[s2art]

craigjm said:

and if that happened do you think the German government would just sit back and go "oh yeah no problem just close the factories and make our workers redundant"?

I doubt PSA could afford the redundancy payments.

[Liokault]

citizensm1th said:

Liokault said:

craigjm said:

Liokault said:

We don't have to buy everything locally, just that it's now a massive opportunity for local suppliers. Also, why wouldn't Bosch look at moving some production to the UK to avoid tariffs and take advantage of the lower pound!

When I was in Russia, we HAD to source 75% of the vehicle (2nd gen Focus) locally or be hit with a massive import tariff. If you can source 75% of a Ford Focus just from within Russia, why would it be a problem from within the UK.

The UK market is tiny in comparison to the whole of the EU or the whole of Russia though

Dude, seriously, why are you deliberately taking a negative view. Yes the UK is tiny compared to the whole of the EU, but you might as well say it's tiny compared to the Milky Way Galaxy. We are Germany's single biggest export market, as a nation we are not insignificant, we are for example much bigger than a russia and Turkey put together.

http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//pc-sales-2...

I am puzzled as to why you think it will have anything to do with ze germans if a french company (part state owned) buy Opel?

Because nothing you quoted refers to the Opel sale specifically.