Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 8

[SilverSixer]

London424 said:

SilverSixer said:

jsf said:

SilverSixer said:

That would indeed baffle anyone who thinks hat the EU "controls" its member states. If that were the case, the UK wouldn't be notifying them that we're leaving.

The EU does currently control UK trade agreements.
The EU does currently control migration policy from the other 27 member states.

To suggest the EU doesn't control anything, because it doesn't control everything, is pretty dumb.

It controls nothing. It is controlled by the decisions of the elected representatives of its member states, us included.

To misunderstand how the EU works and get all upset with it for invalid reasons is the "pretty dumb" thing. Sure, if you don't like it, I'm sure you're happy we're leaving. But perhaps get the facts straight first before making your mind up.

Scotland clearly wants to remain in the EU, by a majority vote, and England doesn't. Some think that EU membership is more important than the UK Union, some don't. How are we going to resolve the matter? How are we going to let people have their say and reach a conclusion on how we should proceed, based on a majority decision? I'm not sure a straight Independence vote is the answer, any more than most on here, but we need to come up with some other way to cement the wishes of the people if that's the case, otherwise the SNP is just going to bulldozer another vote through, probably lose, not shut up and round and round we'll go again.

The problem is that what Scotland wants it can't have. It is leaving the EU one way or another. An independence vote meant leaving the UK and the EU. Staying with the UK now means leaving the EU. Whatever way you look at it, they're out.

Yes, this seems to be the case at the moment. However the SNP are being given an opening to keep arguing for independence by the UK Government pursuing hard brexit - the SNP can claim it will negotiate to stay in EEA/EFTA as an independent nation and reapply for full admission to the EU if the circumstances allow. UK Government putting brexit and the brexit anti-immigrant voters before the Union and accepting the risk this poses of Scottish independence becoming a reality. I still doubt the SNP will win with this argument, but there is a fair risk that they will. Which will be a shame.

[r11co]

Ridgemont said:

The lesson? Scotland doesn't inevitably have to be independent, but beware of radicalising moderates and demeaning the parliamentary process.

This, exactly. The 'hatred of Westminster' is just a staging post for hatred in general that the SNP want to engender.

The language used by Nicola Sturgeon in her conference speech was the 'ying' to the haters' 'yang'.

SilverSixer said:

Yes, this seems to be the case at the moment. However the SNP are being given an opening to keep arguing for independence by the UK Government pursuing hard brexit.

Who says they are pursuing 'hard Brexit'? Oh yes, the SNP do because it suits their narrative. The UK government is about to enter into an unprecedented negotiations process which has to be conducted cannily, so they should be presenting no expectations and making no hubristic announcements in advance of the outcome. Any fule know that, except maybe the rabble-rousing amateurs of the SNP.

The SNP have no clue what the outcome will be and have no right to be 'told in advance' because it is no-one's power to tell them. Any proclamations they make about it therefor are puff designed to suit their agenda and should be treated as such (particularly the whole 'partnership of equals' thing as the EU decides who the negotiating parties are and they have made it clear that they are talking to UK representatives only, not regional governors with delusions of grandeur - if the SNP have genuine issues about their involvement in the process then they are directing their ire in the wrong place). Anyone listening to and quoting their narrative at this stage in the game is genuinely intellectually challenged, but such people's support can be counted on anyway by the SNP.

The SNP are of course desperate to act during a period of uncertainty so that they can avoid the factual debate and appeal to emotion in order to win their battle. Ultimately though they are not in any way in control of the timetable and only a percentage of the electorate are motivated by hatred/emotion. Their backup plan is to re-stimulate the Scottish economy by opening up the shale-gas taps, but this will happen at the expense of the support of the Scottish Greens, hence the urgency to get the s.30 order vote passed now (I'm sure it was not without reason that Cabinet Secretary for Environment Roseanna Cunningham was the most anxious yesterday about getting the vote through, and the most vocally indignant over the suspension of business), and the referendum to take place before the next Holyrood election.

As I said - Brexit is just a convenient fiction.

Edited by r11co on Thursday 23 March 11:48

[Strocky]

r11co said:

hyphen said:

anyone know more? As would be shocking if true.

It is true. Deputy presiding officer Linda Fabiani refused to suspend proceedings, stating "business as usual", although she was all contrite about it later when interviewed by the BBC when she realised what an arse she had been.

The MSP who vocally expressed her annoyance at the eventual suspension was Rosanna Cunningham.

Edited by r11co on Thursday 23 March 10:03

For clarity and openness, Mike Rumbles was probably the most vociferous, based on the solid argument that we shouldn't be giving in to terrorists

[DocJock]

London424 said:

The problem is that what Scotlandthe SNP wants it can't have. It is leaving the EU one way or another. An independence vote meant leaving the UK and the EU. Staying with the UK now means leaving the EU. Whatever way you look at it, they're out.

[Strocky]

r11co said:

Ridgemont said:

The lesson? Scotland doesn't inevitably have to be independent, but beware of radicalising moderates and demeaning the parliamentary process.

This, exactly. The 'hatred of Westminster' is just a staging post for hatred in general that the SNP want to engender.

The language used by Nicola Sturgeon in her conference speech was the 'ying' to the haters' 'yang'.

SilverSixer said:

Yes, this seems to be the case at the moment. However the SNP are being given an opening to keep arguing for independence by the UK Government pursuing hard brexit.

Who says they are pursuing 'hard Brexit'? Oh yes, the SNP do because it suits their narrative. The UK government is about to enter into an unprecedented negotiations process which has to be conducted cannily, so they should be presenting no expectations and making no hubristic announcements in advance of the outcome. Any fule know that, except maybe the rabble-rousing amateurs of the SNP.

The SNP have no clue what the outcome will be and have no right to be 'told in advance' because it is no-one's power to tell them. Any proclamations they make about it therefor are puff designed to suit their agenda and should be treated as such (particularly the whole 'partnership of equals' thing as the EU decides who the negotiating parties are and they have made it clear that they are talking to UK representatives only, not regional governors with delusions of grandeur - if the SNP have genuine issues about their involvement in the process then they are directing their ire in the wrong place). Anyone listening to and quoting their narrative at this stage in the game is genuinely intellectually challenged, but such people's support can be counted on anyway by the SNP.

The SNP are of course desperate to act during a period of uncertainty so that they can avoid the factual debate and appeal to emotion in order to win their battle. Ultimately though they are not in any way in control of the timetable and only a percentage of the electorate are motivated by hatred/emotion. Their backup plan is to re-stimulate the Scottish economy by opening up the shale-gas taps, but this will happen at the expense of the support of the Scottish Greens, hence the urgency to get the s.30 order vote passed now (I'm sure it was not without reason that Cabinet Secretary for Environment Roseanna Cunningham was the most anxious yesterday about getting the vote through, and the most vocally indignant over the suspension of business), and the referendum to take place before the next Holyrood election.

As I said - Brexit is just a convenient fiction.

Edited by r11co on Thursday 23 March 11:48

I pity the fule (sic) that turns a blind eye to things like this re Brexit

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/8420644653654...

[Uggers]

I'm not following, he just confirmed and answered every question put forward to him.

Try getting that sort of answer out of Sturgeon about well..............anything.

[FN2TypeR]

Strocky said:

I pity the fule (sic) that turns a blind eye to things like this re Brexit

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/8420644653654...

No word on potential tariffs between iScotland and rUK, its largest export market, no?

Or are you one of those "they'll give us everything we want and then some" kinda people?

[r11co]

Strocky said:

I pity the fule (sic) that turns a blind eye to things like this re Brexit

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/8420644653654...

All arguments re. Brexit and the SNP are bogus for one simple reason - the fundamental choice the SNP want to offer the Scots (and the massive elephant in the room) is whether or not to depart the EU in its entirety prior to the UK establishing a new relation with the EU under whatever terms it has managed to negotiate, and then Scotland can mebbes apply to one of the European associations as a new member state in a much weakened position than the UK had during their negotiations.

This is why Brian Taylor's first question to Nicola Sturgeon following her Monday press conference was so prescient - "Are you assuming Scotland will inherit EU membership"? Prescient because Nicola's narrative collapses when that assumption is exposed as nonsense.

What Nicola is offering the Scots is the choice between a deal for the UK (which she has to talk down) or no deal for Scotland (because a deal cannot exist until Scotland becomes eligible for one).

Anyone who turns a blind eye to that is a fool.

Edited by r11co on Thursday 23 March 14:32

[bigkeeko]

Brexit. The current grievance card being played by the SNP in order to push through their destructive agenda. I can't imagine the next one being any more valid but that matters not a jot as they are more anti English than Pro Scottish.
As the chap above said in regards to the being in the EU, either way we're out. I'm assuming to get back in we would have to meet the Copenhagen criteria which would include the free movement of people and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro?

Do some of the SNP voters actually know what they're voting for?

[technodup]

SilverSixer said:

Scotland clearly wants to remain in the EU, by a majority vote,

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Just because stumpy Sturgeon says it does not make it true.

Scotland has not been asked the question, so how can it have given its answer?

[57 Chevy]

technodup said:

SilverSixer said:

Scotland clearly wants to remain in the EU, by a majority vote,

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Just because stumpy Sturgeon says it does not make it true.

Scotland has not been asked the question, so how can it have given its answer?

Also, I voted remain but would much rather stay part of the UK than leave rUK to be part of Europe.

[r11co]

bigkeeko said:

Brexit. The current grievance card being played by the SNP in order to push through their destructive agenda. I can't imagine the next one being any more valid but that matters not a jot as they are more anti English than Pro Scottish.

The irony being if the 'rejoin Europe' sentiment is sincere as Sturgeon wants us to believe it is then it leaves them wide open to the 'anyone but England' accusations.

The 'look at what the bad Tories are making us do' argument is hollow, transparent, and is wearing out. The only people making Scotland walk the EU plank is the SNP. There is no need for a second referendum before Brexit happens as the consequences of a leave UK vote afterwards are exactly the same, and delaying brings the bonus of Scotland having the benefit of trying-on post-Brexit UK for size before committing itself to independence and a potential return to the EU fold.

Sturgeon's urgency is because she doesn't want the Scots to be given that option in case it turns out to be preferable to the thin gruel she is offering, or her inability/unwillingness to govern Scotland eventually catches up with her.

It will be a pretty easy sell once Brexit negotiations are out the way - jump now or give it five years to bed-in and if the SNP win an overall majority in 2025 then you can have your referendum, by which point the Nats will have completed the clusterfk they are presiding over and the support of the Greens will be a distant memory as eighth anniversary of the lifting of the fracking moratorium passes.

Edited by r11co on Thursday 23 March 16:30

[malks222]

[quote=r11co]
...... by which point the Nats will have completed the clusterfk they are presiding over and the support of the Greens will be a distant memory as eighth anniversary of the lifting of the fracking moratorium passes.

quote]

I mentioned this a few pages ago now, this is definitely one of the reasons for the SNP to move quick while they still have the support of the greens.

I would love to know what the discussions were over at ineos a few years back between the SNP/Jim Ratcliffe, that led to:

- the government going as guarantor on the loan, which funded the new tank at grangemouth (which funnily enough stores shale gas)
- ineos buying the licenses for fracking across most of central Scotland
- ineos recently buying even more fracking license from others who want to sell them on

How long can the SNP hold off on allowing fracking??? I wonder if they'll need the revenue from fracking for the new 'white paper' to reduce the big negative number on the bottom line.....

[marshal_alan]

if the SNP ever allow fracking they will be signing their death warrant, I would reckon 75% of the membership would resign... now before the posters on this thread start having multiple orgasms, that support will not just evaporate into thin air, it will simply join the green party

[r11co]

marshal_alan said:

if the SNP ever allow fracking they will be signing their death warrant, I would reckon 75% of the membership would resign.

I disagree. They might disenfranchise a handful of their members, but this is the case with many of the SNP's contradictory policies that their hands are tied on for fear of breaking up their disparate alliance of support.

In the run-up to indyref 2014 the Yes Scotland campaigners (aka SNP front group, but able to keep at arms-length) promised everyone of every persuasion across the political spectrum that independence would deliver on what they wanted. A preposterous and unsustainable prospect for anyone who had half a brain, but it is what sold most Yes voters on the idea.

Having failed to get across the line the first time round the SNP are now daily facing the job of maintaining that belief to try and hold on to their more moderate supporters, which as time passes in a very unpredictable world is getting increasingly more difficult for them.

Then of course there will be many thousands of voters who, every day since Nicola's 13th March press conference, will be feeling very betrayed because they took her at her word when she said this.

Edited by r11co on Friday 24th March 09:52

[FN2TypeR]

marshal_alan said:

if the SNP ever allow fracking they will be signing their death warrant, I would reckon 75% of the membership would resign... now before the posters on this thread start having multiple orgasms, that support will not just evaporate into thin air, it will simply join the green party

I doubt it, they have precious little in common outside of independence as the Greens are a truly left leaning party that is pretty well opposed to the centre right and authoritarian SNP on many an issue.

[marshal_alan]

yes and there is a heck of a lot of socialists that joined the SNP to get independence and nothing else, the greens probably tick more of the boxes in terms of environmental issues and being a true socialist party. The old problem of locking half a dozen socialists in a room and within 10 minutes you would have 5 political parties and 10 splinter groups is sadly true. The SNP does keep a tight reign on its members but a lot are getting severely fed up with that

when it comes to fracking especially there is a lot of us scots that are prepared to risk our lives to stop it, the only way they will frack scotland is if they take us dead. far too many activists rolled over in england, the frackers wont get it as easy here

[s2art]

marshal_alan said:

when it comes to fracking especially there is a lot of us scots that are prepared to risk our lives to stop it, the only way they will frack scotland is if they take us dead. far too many activists rolled over in england, the frackers wont get it as easy here

Why? What is so bad about fracking? As against (say) mining. Or for that matter damaging the landscape and wildlife with windfarms.

[FN2TypeR]

marshal_alan said:

yes and there is a heck of a lot of socialists that joined the SNP to get independence and nothing else, the greens probably tick more of the boxes in terms of environmental issues and being a true socialist party. The old problem of locking half a dozen socialists in a room and within 10 minutes you would have 5 political parties and 10 splinter groups is sadly true. The SNP does keep a tight reign on its members but a lot are getting severely fed up with that

when it comes to fracking especially there is a lot of us scots that are prepared to risk our lives to stop it, the only way they will frack scotland is if they take us dead. far too many activists rolled over in england, the frackers wont get it as easy here

Never heard that one in seven years of living both in and near Aberdeen, the government must be pissing their breeches out of fear.

I would have thought that socialist leaning types would be more attracted to the independence seeking greens than the independence seeking SNP personally, but hey ho, you may very well be correct, I suppose it would be a difficult thing to map with much accuracy, I do know that Green Party membership has burgeoned (relatively speaking) since 2014

[andymadmak]

marshal_alan said:

when it comes to fracking especially there is a lot of us scots that are prepared to risk our lives to stop it, the only way they will frack scotland is if they take us dead.

have you heard yourself?