Cost of living squeeze in 2022, 23 & 24 (Vol. 2)
Discussion
okgo said:
RayDonovan said:
'Next' results have been decent but I think they massively benefit from a really slick online offering - not sure any retailer combines online and physical as well as Next do.
Tbh not many of the big highstreet shops are bad these days, they’re all mostly using the same tech (I’ve sold it to them in some cases). JD have been pretty advanced for a while. Suspect their audience are feeling the hit more than most.
Carl_VivaEspana said:
soupdragon1 said:
??
We were in Belfast 2 weeks before Christmas getting stuff. Some sports clothing for my son in JD Sports and there was a zig zag queue at the till, the kind you see at airport security.
Multi storey car park was 1 in 1 out at 10am. Absolute chaos at times.
We have seen it in this thread many times, 'town seems packed' etc. but then you see this:We were in Belfast 2 weeks before Christmas getting stuff. Some sports clothing for my son in JD Sports and there was a zig zag queue at the till, the kind you see at airport security.
Multi storey car park was 1 in 1 out at 10am. Absolute chaos at times.
"Shares in JD Sports have plummeted by more than 20% after the sportswear seller issued an profit warning.
The company said its profits would be about £125m lower than previously predicted after a worse-than-expected festive trading period."
I think that sometimes, people just want to get out of the home and interact, especially at Christmas.
119 said:
Carl_VivaEspana said:
soupdragon1 said:
??
We were in Belfast 2 weeks before Christmas getting stuff. Some sports clothing for my son in JD Sports and there was a zig zag queue at the till, the kind you see at airport security.
Multi storey car park was 1 in 1 out at 10am. Absolute chaos at times.
We have seen it in this thread many times, 'town seems packed' etc. but then you see this:We were in Belfast 2 weeks before Christmas getting stuff. Some sports clothing for my son in JD Sports and there was a zig zag queue at the till, the kind you see at airport security.
Multi storey car park was 1 in 1 out at 10am. Absolute chaos at times.
"Shares in JD Sports have plummeted by more than 20% after the sportswear seller issued an profit warning.
The company said its profits would be about £125m lower than previously predicted after a worse-than-expected festive trading period."
I think that sometimes, people just want to get out of the home and interact, especially at Christmas.
RayDonovan said:
Indeed, terrible performance with profits of only £925,000,000 this yearspikeyhead said:
RayDonovan said:
Indeed, terrible performance with profits of only £925,000,000 this yearObviously £925m is an awful lot of money, but a profit warning and a 20% drop in their share price is a 'rough time'.
RayDonovan said:
spikeyhead said:
RayDonovan said:
Indeed, terrible performance with profits of only £925,000,000 this yearObviously £925m is an awful lot of money, but a profit warning and a 20% drop in their share price is a 'rough time'.
spikeyhead said:
RayDonovan said:
spikeyhead said:
RayDonovan said:
Indeed, terrible performance with profits of only £925,000,000 this yearObviously £925m is an awful lot of money, but a profit warning and a 20% drop in their share price is a 'rough time'.
Even Next, who've done well, are saying the biggest single hit for 2024 is going to be wage rises.
We are still in very difficult territory.
JagLover said:
Bad news on inflation -up 0.4% MOM after a fall in November.
Yearly inflation at 4%.
Interest rates likely to stay at current levels for longer.
It's an interesting conundrum though, because news on employment, especially press releases from recruiters and, in particualr, in London, point to a very depressed job market.Yearly inflation at 4%.
Interest rates likely to stay at current levels for longer.
The way the BoE works, on data 3 months old, it will nearly always be wrong. It's like the economy is being driven - by the businesses and government bodies - with those at the wheel not in charge of either the throttle or bake pedals. The BoE is sat in the back, looking out of the rear window, having thoughts like "we've been on a stright for half a mile, we could have used more throttle or, oh crap, that was a sleeping policeman we failed to brake for".
JagLover said:
Bad news on inflation -up 0.4% MOM after a fall in November.
Yearly inflation at 4%.
Interest rates likely to stay at current levels for longer.
It's an odd one - if the reporting is to believed and the rise is attributable to tobacco & alcohol. Yearly inflation at 4%.
Interest rates likely to stay at current levels for longer.
For most, these are discretionary spends - prices go up and you simply consume less of the item. Also, I might be living in a bubble - but I think I only know one person who smokes anymore. I would have thought that the contribution of tobacco to the inflation calculation would be quite small if my experience is representative of the country as a whole.
I think the demand side is more able to react to these price increases than say rises attributable to rising fuel / energy costs - or food costs (influence by rises elsewhere).
Digga said:
It's an interesting conundrum though, because news on employment, especially press releases from recruiters and, in particualr, in London, point to a very depressed job market.
The way the BoE works, on data 3 months old, it will nearly always be wrong. It's like the economy is being driven - by the businesses and government bodies - with those at the wheel not in charge of either the throttle or bake pedals. The BoE is sat in the back, looking out of the rear window, having thoughts like "we've been on a stright for half a mile, we could have used more throttle or, oh crap, that was a sleeping policeman we failed to brake for".
It's probably unlikely that a single point in december is going to meaningfully change anything planned by the BoE. Especially given the Oct and Nov monthly inflation numbers had come in lower than expected so there is some leeway. If a year ago someone had offered 4% YoY inflation to the BoE and HM treasury i suspect they would have been more than happy to take that. The way the BoE works, on data 3 months old, it will nearly always be wrong. It's like the economy is being driven - by the businesses and government bodies - with those at the wheel not in charge of either the throttle or bake pedals. The BoE is sat in the back, looking out of the rear window, having thoughts like "we've been on a stright for half a mile, we could have used more throttle or, oh crap, that was a sleeping policeman we failed to brake for".
This latest inflation print probably only really changes more in the market pricing of rate and timing of cuts to the base rate because there is quite a wide gap between central banker speak and market perception..... The recent shipping related issues however does put a slight spanner in the works even if it rather obviously shouldn't. Prices might well get pushed higher as a result especially if there is a more major incident than what has already happened but fat lot of good base rates are going to do about that when arguably the 'neutral rate' required by the slowing economy should probably be looking someone well below where we are now even now.....
In the desperation for inflation and in turn interest rates to fall, people are overlooking Core inflation and Services inflation, both far more important than CPI as a reflection of the economy. Neither metric shows any sign of falling in the short term - and why would they - given all of these pay rises have to be paid for, not to mention the increase in minimum wage coming up.
Unemployment is at an all time low and people are earning vastly more and possess more wealth than they ever have.
Why the hurry to return to the ponzi level token interest rates that are responsible for inflation and the asset bubble we've seen over the last decade?
Unemployment is at an all time low and people are earning vastly more and possess more wealth than they ever have.
Why the hurry to return to the ponzi level token interest rates that are responsible for inflation and the asset bubble we've seen over the last decade?
isaldiri said:
Digga said:
It's an interesting conundrum though, because news on employment, especially press releases from recruiters and, in particualr, in London, point to a very depressed job market.
The way the BoE works, on data 3 months old, it will nearly always be wrong. It's like the economy is being driven - by the businesses and government bodies - with those at the wheel not in charge of either the throttle or bake pedals. The BoE is sat in the back, looking out of the rear window, having thoughts like "we've been on a stright for half a mile, we could have used more throttle or, oh crap, that was a sleeping policeman we failed to brake for".
It's probably unlikely that a single point in december is going to meaningfully change anything planned by the BoE. Especially given the Oct and Nov monthly inflation numbers had come in lower than expected so there is some leeway. If a year ago someone had offered 4% YoY inflation to the BoE and HM treasury i suspect they would have been more than happy to take that. The way the BoE works, on data 3 months old, it will nearly always be wrong. It's like the economy is being driven - by the businesses and government bodies - with those at the wheel not in charge of either the throttle or bake pedals. The BoE is sat in the back, looking out of the rear window, having thoughts like "we've been on a stright for half a mile, we could have used more throttle or, oh crap, that was a sleeping policeman we failed to brake for".
This latest inflation print probably only really changes more in the market pricing of rate and timing of cuts to the base rate because there is quite a wide gap between central banker speak and market perception..... The recent shipping related issues however does put a slight spanner in the works even if it rather obviously shouldn't. Prices might well get pushed higher as a result especially if there is a more major incident than what has already happened but fat lot of good base rates are going to do about that when arguably the 'neutral rate' required by the slowing economy should probably be looking someone well below where we are now even now.....
Economist Noble Francis said:
4,370 construction firms went out of business in the UK in the year to November 2023, which is 7.0% higher than a year ago & 37.9% higher than in the year to January 2020, pre-pandemic, according to the latest Government Insolvency Service data.
https://twitter.com/NobleFrancis/status/1747194852675076131Which by extension also means, forget the government hitting the cross-party agreed target of 300k new homes last year, this year, or next...
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