Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

[Mortarboard]

crankedup5 said:

Yup, it’s all ongoing.
Wether one agrees with this is another matter and of course in the World of politics anything can happen and usually does. Perhaps the change to a Labour Government will speed up the process.
We are still trading with all of our partners from the past thirty years and constantly seeking deals with new trading opportunities.

Going to acknowledge the cost of the changed trading environment at all?

It's very much "found a pound but lost a fiver"....

And nowt's going to change unless that is faced.

M.

[Riff Raff]

Mortarboard said:

crankedup5 said:

Yup, it’s all ongoing.
Wether one agrees with this is another matter and of course in the World of politics anything can happen and usually does. Perhaps the change to a Labour Government will speed up the process.
We are still trading with all of our partners from the past thirty years and constantly seeking deals with new trading opportunities.

Going to acknowledge the cost of the changed trading environment at all?

It's very much "found a pound but lost a fiver"....

And nowt's going to change unless that is faced.

M.

Recent paper from the Resolution Foundation talks a bit about this. It touches on the big uplift in services exports.

"Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data".

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/brita...

I thought it was an interesting read. Especially the bit about both the UK and the USA reporting a trade surplus with each other in services!

[Mortarboard]

It confirms that brexit has been, and continues to be, bad for goods trade- both within and without the eu.

And further friction on trade is inevitable when the border and customs controls finally get put in place.

M.

[crankedup5]

Mortarboard said:

crankedup5 said:

Yup, it’s all ongoing.
Wether one agrees with this is another matter and of course in the World of politics anything can happen and usually does. Perhaps the change to a Labour Government will speed up the process.
We are still trading with all of our partners from the past thirty years and constantly seeking deals with new trading opportunities.

Going to acknowledge the cost of the changed trading environment at all?

It's very much "found a pound but lost a fiver"....

And nowt's going to change unless that is faced.

M.

As I mentioned already, almost certainly the U.K. is headed for a Labour Government. Let’s see how. ‘face it’.

[Mortarboard]

How does the labour plan to implement brexit differ from the tory plan to implement brexit?

Inquiring minds need to know.....



M.

[crankedup5]

Mortarboard said:

How does the labour plan to implement brexit differ from the tory plan to implement brexit?

Inquiring minds need to know.....



M.

When the Labour Party advise the U.K. electorate regarding its policies I expect the World will know within minutes of announcements. All we know atm is SKS telling us that he will be seeking closer ties with the EU

[Vanden Saab]

Riff Raff said:

Recent paper from the Resolution Foundation talks a bit about this. It touches on the big uplift in services exports.

"Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data".

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/brita...

I thought it was an interesting read. Especially the bit about both the UK and the USA reporting a trade surplus with each other in services!

Even more interesting is that the goods trade reduction is equal between the EU and the RoW. If somebody can explain how Brexit has affected goods trade with the RoW I am all ears... if imports and exports are both down without a corresponding reduction in manufacturing that would suggest that more firms are buying and selling in the UK.

[Mortarboard]

Vanden Saab said:

Even more interesting is that the goods trade reduction is equal between the EU and the RoW. If somebody can explain how Brexit has affected goods trade with the RoW I am all ears... if imports and exports are both down without a corresponding reduction in manufacturing that would suggest that more firms are buying and selling in the UK.

Because the viability of business is worse due to friction.

There aren't many businesses that only trade with "eu" or "non-eu" partners exclusively. Can't all be Indian beard oil gabillionaires

M.

[Vanden Saab]

Mortarboard said:

Vanden Saab said:

Even more interesting is that the goods trade reduction is equal between the EU and the RoW. If somebody can explain how Brexit has affected goods trade with the RoW I am all ears... if imports and exports are both down without a corresponding reduction in manufacturing that would suggest that more firms are buying and selling in the UK.

Because the viability of business is worse due to friction.

There aren't many businesses that only trade with "eu" or "non-eu" partners exclusively. Can't all be Indian beard oil gabillionaires

M.

So we are seeing a huge increase in business failures then?

[Mortarboard]

Vanden Saab said:

So we are seeing a huge increase in business failures then?

Le sigh.

Do tell me why you directly conflate drops in trade due to viability with "a huge increase in business failures"

That's quite the strawman. Turb worthy. Well done

M.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

It confirms that brexit has been, and continues to be, bad for goods trade- both within and without the eu.

And further friction on trade is inevitable when the border and customs controls finally get put in place.

M.

China to UK ‘toot’ down

UK to EU ‘toot’ down

China to EU ‘toot’ up

…..


UK value exports to EU up

UK value exports to ROW up

UK value manufacturing exports up ROW and EU

Oh did the UK not go 4th largest exporter worldwide this morning?

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

Mortarboard said:

It confirms that brexit has been, and continues to be, bad for goods trade- both within and without the eu.

And further friction on trade is inevitable when the border and customs controls finally get put in place.

M.

China to UK ‘toot’ down

UK to EU ‘toot’ down

China to EU ‘toot’ up

…..


UK value exports to EU up

UK value exports to ROW up

UK value manufacturing exports up ROW and EU

Oh did the UK not go 4th largest exporter worldwide this morning?

"Due to services exports"

The one thing not affected directly by brexit.



M.

[don'tbesilly]

Vanden Saab said:

Mortarboard said:

Vanden Saab said:

Even more interesting is that the goods trade reduction is equal between the EU and the RoW. If somebody can explain how Brexit has affected goods trade with the RoW I am all ears... if imports and exports are both down without a corresponding reduction in manufacturing that would suggest that more firms are buying and selling in the UK.

Because the viability of business is worse due to friction.

There aren't many businesses that only trade with "eu" or "non-eu" partners exclusively. Can't all be Indian beard oil gabillionaires

M.

So we are seeing a huge increase in business failures then?

Not here no, in Germany things are slightly different.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

Mortarboard said:

It confirms that brexit has been, and continues to be, bad for goods trade- both within and without the eu.

And further friction on trade is inevitable when the border and customs controls finally get put in place.

M.

China to UK ‘toot’ down

UK to EU ‘toot’ down

China to EU ‘toot’ up

…..


UK value exports to EU up

UK value exports to ROW up

UK value manufacturing exports up ROW and EU

Oh did the UK not go 4th largest exporter worldwide this morning?

"Due to services exports"

The one thing not affected directly by brexit.



M.

The eu have had a trade surplus in services to the UK for decades, they were highly unlikely to tariff themselves now were they? Think of the 27.. with that internal market that the UK had access to.

Now.. today..

However UK services to ROW and EU up..

High value goods up to ROW and EU.. up (again)..

UK services to the EU up, when not in the single market… up..
Hmmm?

Loss of Chinese toot (volumes), not important.

[Mortarboard]

And your point relating all this to brexit is what, exactly?

Especially as all this revolves around services, which isn't brexit related...

M.

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

And your point relating all this to brexit is what, exactly?

Especially as all this revolves around services, which isn't brexit related...

M.

Your point volumes down.

My point high value goods are growing.

You can exclude services, if you wish, my point stands.

Just because something transverses 3/15 borders (within the EU) to make a ‘goods’ while during the manufacturing process does not make it any more valuable than something leaving the UK as exported.

Ask BMW.

[Vanden Saab]

Mortarboard said:

And your point relating all this to brexit is what, exactly?

Especially as all this revolves around services, which isn't brexit related...

M.

Your laughable trade intensity nonsense...

[Mortarboard]

Deesee said:

Your point volumes down.

My point high value goods are growing.

You can exclude services, if you wish, my point stands.

Just because something transverses 3/15 borders (within the EU) to make a ‘goods’ while during the manufacturing process does not make it any more valuable than something leaving the UK as exported.

Ask BMW.

Nice strawman.

My point- huge difference in growth in goods trade vs growth in services trade, because brexit.

Refute at yer leisure

M.

[Killboy]

don'tbesilly said:

Not here no, in Germany things are slightly different.

Aren't we just 6 months behind Germany?

[Deesee]

Mortarboard said:

Deesee said:

Your point volumes down.

My point high value goods are growing.

You can exclude services, if you wish, my point stands.

Just because something transverses 3/15 borders (within the EU) to make a ‘goods’ while during the manufacturing process does not make it any more valuable than something leaving the UK as exported.

Ask BMW.

Nice strawman.

My point- huge difference in growth in goods trade vs growth in services trade, because brexit.

Refute at yer leisure

M.

I’ll take strawman all day, if we keep unemployment lower than EU average (50% less) & youth unemployment lower than EU average (EU have 15% under 25 unemployed UK 10%) While growing the economy simultaneously via the ‘single’ market and ROW, not paying for the EU simultaneously…

UK seems to be working fine..

M please explain the subsequent investment by European/ROW multinationals in UK industry and machine/manufacturing.. (you can read into that what you will, and why they have picked the UK over say geographically NL/DK NW Ger/northern FR or Ireland), or with massive EU subsidies to parachute into Slovakia, Spain, Croatia, Romania, Hungary (etc) to fudge the unemployment numbers at the cost of the German taxpayers.

Value over Volume? Quality over quantity?

Investment on an island outside of a common market (of some 27 states and 7x the population), I need this explained to me as a strawman.