Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[Cheib]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Posted this before

https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57...

Note that there hasn't been any attacks within Russia this week I don't think

That's an interesting article which I hadn't seen. Hope you don't mind, but I added a non-paywalled link version below.

Must be very frustrating for Ukraine to be told it can't attack the most vulnerable parts of Russian infrastructure likely to generate the highest leverage.

https://archive.ph/JFdaS

Ukraine should tell the US that if their sanctions are working then it shouldn’t have a large impact outside Russia.

[Oliver Hardy]

I believe the Ukrainians were attacking mostly the separation towers which has no effect on crude oil but has an effect on domestic supplies. But I don't know?

[GT03ROB]

Cheib said:

Ukraine should tell the US that if their sanctions are working then it shouldn’t have a large impact outside Russia.

There is only the small matter of around $50m/day of revenues that flows mainly to 2 US oil companies curtsey of a pipeline going through Russia & that sees oil loaded at a Russian Black Sea port that could be influencing US political thinking.

Putin to Biden "suggest you stop the attacks or we turn off the tap"

[hidetheelephants]

He can't credibly threaten that; he has no ability to store it and if the wells are shut off there's no guarantee they can be started again.

[GT03ROB]

hidetheelephants said:

He can't credibly threaten that; he has no ability to store it and if the wells are shut off there's no guarantee they can be started again.

...... and who's problem is that? It's not Putin's 'cos it's not Russian oil....

[hidetheelephants]

GT03ROB said:

hidetheelephants said:

He can't credibly threaten that; he has no ability to store it and if the wells are shut off there's no guarantee they can be started again.

...... and who's problem is that? It's not Putin's 'cos it's not Russian oil....

Oil Cos have lawyers and there's $300bn of frozen russian cash in western banks. Who is going to blink first?

[isaldiri]

Cheib said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Posted this before

https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57...

Note that there hasn't been any attacks within Russia this week I don't think

That's an interesting article which I hadn't seen. Hope you don't mind, but I added a non-paywalled link version below.

Must be very frustrating for Ukraine to be told it can't attack the most vulnerable parts of Russian infrastructure likely to generate the highest leverage.

https://archive.ph/JFdaS

Ukraine should tell the US that if their sanctions are working then it shouldn’t have a large impact outside Russia.

How's that supposed to work again? If sanctions are working it's exactly because it's having an impact outside of Russia given they are a major global producer of crude and refined product. Perhaps Ukraine would prefer the US just to drop their 'non working' sanctions then if they are going to take that tone.....

[GT03ROB]

hidetheelephants said:

GT03ROB said:

hidetheelephants said:

He can't credibly threaten that; he has no ability to store it and if the wells are shut off there's no guarantee they can be started again.

...... and who's problem is that? It's not Putin's 'cos it's not Russian oil....

Oil Cos have lawyers and there's $300bn of frozen russian cash in western banks. Who is going to blink first?

I have a feeling Putin is not exactly going to be quaking in his boots about being threatened by oil company lawyers & the $300bn has been written off already for reparations to rebuild Ukraine.

Who blinks 1st? Biden.

[BikeBikeBIke]

GT03ROB said:

hidetheelephants said:

GT03ROB said:

hidetheelephants said:

He can't credibly threaten that; he has no ability to store it and if the wells are shut off there's no guarantee they can be started again.

...... and who's problem is that? It's not Putin's 'cos it's not Russian oil....

Oil Cos have lawyers and there's $300bn of frozen russian cash in western banks. Who is going to blink first?

I have a feeling Putin is not exactly going to be quaking in his boots about being threatened by oil company lawyers & the $300bn has been written off already for reparations to rebuild Ukraine.

Who blinks 1st? Biden.

I think we can safely say after two years of war that Putin has no extra influence held in reserve, any more than he has a spare army and equipment that he's been saving up to use later.

If Putin hasn't already used that pipeline as leverage there's a reason and that reason won't have changed now.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 2nd April 08:31

[sisu]

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

As for the American position, this is not a good look long term. 9/11 was when they pressed the button on Article 5 of NATO and it is worth noting the countries who responded to assist the US regardless of its validity or efficacy. Ukraine committed troops, Estonia, who weren't part of NATO at the time who proportionally sacrificed a large proportion of troop KIA/population.

There are no requests for American boots on the ground or air support, simply old stock.

A 6 month pause on supply is being noted by all around.

Is the UK and Europe caught off guard? Yes as most expected the US to be a supplier as they make such a depth of stock.
The worst case for the US is Estonia getting hit in October and America shrugging as they don't want to upset Trump making the other nations who don't like America see this as a green light to wage a war as America will lose interest after 3 years.

[BikeBikeBIke]

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

As for the American position, this is not a good look long term. 9/11 was when they pressed the button on Article 5 of NATO and it is worth noting the countries who responded to assist the US regardless of its validity or efficacy. Ukraine committed troops, Estonia, who weren't part of NATO at the time who proportionally sacrificed a large proportion of troop KIA/population.

There are no requests for American boots on the ground or air support, simply old stock.

A 6 month pause on supply is being noted by all around.

Is the UK and Europe caught off guard? Yes as most expected the US to be a supplier as they make such a depth of stock.
The worst case for the US is Estonia getting hit in October and America shrugging as they don't want to upset Trump making the other nations who don't like America see this as a green light to wage a war as America will lose interest after 3 years.

Agree. I have a sneaky suspicion Europe will step up and maybe even that America will firm up again but even if that happens tens of thousands of people have been killed or gained becaise the West didn't pull our finger out. We should make up for our lack, and fast.

[borcy]

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1775039042951815210?t=...


Some video of long range Ukrainian drone attacks.

[isaldiri]

sisu said:

As for the American position, this is not a good look long term. 9/11 was when they pressed the button on Article 5 of NATO and it is worth noting the countries who responded to assist the US regardless of its validity or efficacy. Ukraine committed troops, Estonia, who weren't part of NATO at the time who proportionally sacrificed a large proportion of troop KIA/population.

Technically.....that involvement from Estonia and/or Ukraine was as part of a UN security council mandate for the ISAF rather than a purely NATO (US) call to arms to have the veneer of a coalition for their attack on Iraq and Afghanistan...... The latter involved far fewer countries and mainly were the UK, Oz, Canada for both and including Poland for Iraq i believe.

[pinchmeimdreamin]

borcy said:

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1775039042951815210?t=...


Some video of long range Ukrainian drone attacks.

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

Is this a suicide mission or have they automated it ?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/i1AP4hEME...

[menguin]

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

[Spare tyre]

pinchmeimdreamin said:

borcy said:

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1775039042951815210?t=...


Some video of long range Ukrainian drone attacks.

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

Is this a suicide mission or have they automated it ?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/i1AP4hEME...

I’d say automated, I think Ukrainians are smarter than suicide missions

[borcy]

pinchmeimdreamin said:

borcy said:

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1775039042951815210?t=...


Some video of long range Ukrainian drone attacks.

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

Is this a suicide mission or have they automated it ?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/i1AP4hEME...

Automated, they've used them before but there's not many of its flight to impact.

I believe they are looking to double the range this year of their kamikaze drones.

[is-uk]

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

[J4CKO]

menguin said:

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

[is-uk]

Speculation that the new, long range drone used to hit the Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan, may be based on the Aeroprakt A-22, a Ukrainian built two-seat, high-wing, tricycle landing gear ultralight aircraft.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1775068...