Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[BikeBikeBIke]

Dragonfire is planned for 2027. Surely it can't be deployed now?

[bristolracer]

Maybe the only thing that will stop Russia and save Ukraine will be the demise of Putin.

It won’t make Russia a better place, but his successor can announce objectives have been met and they can stop shooting.

[hidetheelephants]

GT03ROB said:

Gecko1978 said:

BBC new talking about Ukraine being defeated in 2024. If this does happen we in the West have let it by delayed supply of weapons. To let a European nation be over run by an aggressor is a shame on us all.

It's telling that there is very little by way of good news coming out about Ukraine. There are no Ukrainian advance being reported, yet Russia does seem to gain minimal ground albeit at a high cost. Western tanks are not game changers, it's probably questionable if F16s will make a discernable difference.

Demographically Russia just has too much meat to chuck at the problem.

They aren't chucking it; where is the conscription? What they are doing is gulling impoverished men from non-aligned countries to join the russian army, a clear sign of political desperation. I see no such desperation on the part of Ukraine.

[BikeBikeBIke]

hidetheelephants said:

They aren't chucking it; where is the conscription? What they are doing is gulling impoverished men from non-aligned countries to join the russian army, a clear sign of political desperation. I see no such desperation on the part of Ukraine.

What we don't know is the ratio of losses. If Ukraine are trading territory for lives and taking 20:1 losses they're golden.

If it's 1:1 that's bleak.

According to Kofman Russia have *better* drones and EW than Ukraine. Obvs they have more shells, so I really fear that ratio might not be very good.

I wonder how accurate the 3:1 estimate for attackers/defenders is when every square inch of ground is covered by drones with IR cameras.

It's bleak and I don't think Ukraine has the option to just quit. I don't think Russia are going to say "OK, fine, we'll all stop, here are some terms.".

Having said that I do think Russia might want to just halt the advance, I think America could come back online and I'm certain Europe will step up to some degree.

[king arthur]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Dragonfire is planned for 2027. Surely it can't be deployed now?

It seemed like a bit of a throwaway comment from Shapps that the media has pounced on and so now the news is that we're definitely sending it and it's going to start shooting down Russian drones immediately. If that's not what's going to happen Shapps needs to be more careful in how he puts things. I don't think the same would happen with Wallace, remember how Storm Shadow showed up just after he announced it but it had been months in the planning.

[Prolex-UK]

king arthur said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Dragonfire is planned for 2027. Surely it can't be deployed now?

It seemed like a bit of a throwaway comment from Shapps that the media has pounced on and so now the news is that we're definitely sending it and it's going to start shooting down Russian drones immediately. If that's not what's going to happen Shapps needs to be more careful in how he puts things. I don't think the same would happen with Wallace, remember how Storm Shadow showed up just after he announced it but it had been months in the planning.

Shapps is not the brightest bulb in the box.

[loafer123]

It was probably unintentional, but there is nothing wrong with seeding worry and uncertainty in the minds your your enemy.

[Cheib]

W12GT said:

I’ve said it before about Trump being as bad as Putin. His crazy followers are culpable for USA inaction to provide further support to Ukraine. As a nation they should be ashamed of themselves. Trump is a disgrace and history will not look kindly on him.

I cannot believe that ‘the civilised West’ are not supporting Ukraine sufficiently. The loser will always be the one who runs out of weapons / munitions / soldiers first.

Deeply saddened by this news for all Ukrainians but also for what will happen next, because Russia won’t stop, next it will be Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and I don’t believe NATO will do anything. Anyone in the UK with sons that are 8-45years old now could see them being sent off to fight in 10years time - assuming that would be the timeline for Russia to migrate far enough that we decide to do anything. Alternatively if
5years time then those that 13-50years old now.

Didn’t think I’d even be thinking that in my lifetime let alone typing it. I personally will never go to America again and spend my money there; additionally considering that I read an article this week that should Trump fail to win then there is a very distant chance it could descend into civil war; seems like they are already at that point politically so who knows if it could manifest into physical. If that happened, I’m pretty sure the Republicans would win because they are the nutters with all the guns!

Edited to add - All it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to stand by and do nothing.

Edited by W12GT on Saturday 13th April 07:51

It’s not just America you could say the same of every major NATO member, some like Poland and the Baltic States have pulled their weight but the rest including the UK should hold their heads in shame. What has been sent has been sent too late and nowhere near enough has been sent.

[Prolex-UK]

Cheib said:

W12GT said:

I’ve said it before about Trump being as bad as Putin. His crazy followers are culpable for USA inaction to provide further support to Ukraine. As a nation they should be ashamed of themselves. Trump is a disgrace and history will not look kindly on him.

I cannot believe that ‘the civilised West’ are not supporting Ukraine sufficiently. The loser will always be the one who runs out of weapons / munitions / soldiers first.

Deeply saddened by this news for all Ukrainians but also for what will happen next, because Russia won’t stop, next it will be Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and I don’t believe NATO will do anything. Anyone in the UK with sons that are 8-45years old now could see them being sent off to fight in 10years time - assuming that would be the timeline for Russia to migrate far enough that we decide to do anything. Alternatively if
5years time then those that 13-50years old now.

Didn’t think I’d even be thinking that in my lifetime let alone typing it. I personally will never go to America again and spend my money there; additionally considering that I read an article this week that should Trump fail to win then there is a very distant chance it could descend into civil war; seems like they are already at that point politically so who knows if it could manifest into physical. If that happened, I’m pretty sure the Republicans would win because they are the nutters with all the guns!

Edited to add - All it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to stand by and do nothing.

Edited by W12GT on Saturday 13th April 07:51

It’s not just America you could say the same of every major NATO member, some like Poland and the Baltic States have pulled their weight but the rest including the UK should hold their heads in shame. What has been sent has been sent too late and nowhere near enough has been sent.

Plus one

[J4CKO]

W12GT said:

Prolex-UK said:

Gecko1978 said:

BBC new talking about Ukraine being defeated in 2024. If this does happen we in the West have let it by delayed supply of weapons. To let a European nation be over run by an aggressor is a shame on us all.

Americans are main cause.

Unforgivable what they are doing.

But yes pretty st all in all

I’ve said it before about Trump being as bad as Putin. His crazy followers are culpable for USA inaction to provide further support to Ukraine. As a nation they should be ashamed of themselves. Trump is a disgrace and history will not look kindly on him.

I cannot believe that ‘the civilised West’ are not supporting Ukraine sufficiently. The loser will always be the one who runs out of weapons / munitions / soldiers first.

Deeply saddened by this news for all Ukrainians but also for what will happen next, because Russia won’t stop, next it will be Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and I don’t believe NATO will do anything. Anyone in the UK with sons that are 8-45years old now could see them being sent off to fight in 10years time - assuming that would be the timeline for Russia to migrate far enough that we decide to do anything. Alternatively if
5years time then those that 13-50years old now.

Didn’t think I’d even be thinking that in my lifetime let alone typing it. I personally will never go to America again and spend my money there; additionally considering that I read an article this week that should Trump fail to win then there is a very distant chance it could descend into civil war; seems like they are already at that point politically so who knows if it could manifest into physical. If that happened, I’m pretty sure the Republicans would win because they are the nutters with all the guns!

Edited to add - All it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to stand by and do nothing.

Will there be any Russian fighting age men left by then ?

2 years and they are down by 400k plus killed or injured, plus all the ones that fked off (cant blame them)

Would be 2 to 3 million by then potentially if it carries on at that rate.

Would imagine that the Russian people would be getting mighty fked off with all their men being killed.

Would their war footing economy last that long ? Will Putin/appetite last that long ?

[PRTVR]

Cheib said:

It’s not just America you could say the same of every major NATO member, some like Poland and the Baltic States have pulled their weight but the rest including the UK should hold their heads in shame. What has been sent has been sent too late and nowhere near enough has been sent.

I disagree about the UKs contribution, yes we could do more but we were training troops before the war started, we set the ball rolling with tanks when others were fearful to supply,same with storm shadow, we are an Iland nation and specialise in naval matters, whilst we have an army we do not possess in numbers the things Ukraine requires, I think we do not have a air defence system like patriot, weapons cannot just be purchased, everything takes time to up production and sadly time is another thing Ukraine is short of.

[hidetheelephants]

PRTVR said:

Cheib said:

It’s not just America you could say the same of every major NATO member, some like Poland and the Baltic States have pulled their weight but the rest including the UK should hold their heads in shame. What has been sent has been sent too late and nowhere near enough has been sent.

I disagree about the UKs contribution, yes we could do more but we were training troops before the war started, we set the ball rolling with tanks when others were fearful to supply,same with storm shadow, we are an Iland nation and specialise in naval matters, whilst we have an army we do not possess in numbers the things Ukraine requires, I think we do not have a air defence system like patriot, weapons cannot just be purchased, everything takes time to up production and sadly time is another thing Ukraine is short of.

No one in NATO other than the US sells a long range SAM system. Sky Sabre is made in the UK; it's brand new, Poland has ordered some and some has been delivered plus the Royal Artillery have at least one battery in Poland. It integrates with Poland's existing Patriot and homebuilt short range SAM systems, MBDA are increasing production, yet I don't see any suggestion of sending it to Ukraine.

[king arthur]

Prolex-UK said:

Shapps is not the brightest bulb in the box.

Well, so far the things he has said are the things I would want to hear him say but talk is nothing, we need actions. Or rather, the Ukrainians do. What can we do that will make a difference? Storm Shadow made a difference, and if this laser thingy is actually ready to shoot down drones then get it out there pronto. But if it's not, don't talk about sending it in a couple of years time because there won't be anything left to defend by then.

[gotoPzero]

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

[spookly]

gotoPzero said:

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

What makes you think Trump will win?

[RichFN2]

Probably because his rival seems to have genuine memory issues, and can look a little lost and confused at times.

Trump is a maniac and talks a load of nonsense, but he delivers it a more convincing way than Biden, staggering to think these are the best candidates America can produce.

[stemll]

RichFN2 said:

Trump is a maniac and talks a load of nonsense, but he delivers it a more convincing way than Biden,

You're clearly watching a different trump to the rest of us. Today's trump is a drivelling idiot who can never remember who or what he's talking about, who his opponent is or pretty much anything else.

[jtremlett]

spookly said:

gotoPzero said:

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

What makes you think Trump will win?

What makes you think he won't?

Wrong thread for this but he's ahead in the polls; won in 2016 when plenty of people were saying he wouldn't; Biden is unpopular; Kamala Harris is even more unpopular; Biden looks doddery and sometimes as if he may have dementia to some degree (even more so than Trump who was bonkers to start with anyway); I'm not sure all the legal stuff against Trump isn't counter-productive because it is seen as partisan. I don't know who will win but I wouldn't like to bet too much either way.

[bmwmike]

Christ if Ukraine falls does that mean they'll be forced to fight for Russia and we / west end up fighting them?

[hidetheelephants]

bmwmike said:

Christ if Ukraine falls does that mean they'll be forced to fight for Russia and we / west end up fighting them?

Pretty good odds; that's exactly what they did to all adult males in the donbass and crimea, conscripted them and sent them to die.