Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[SlimJim16v]

Depressing reading for the last couple of pages, I hope it's wrong. Europe and America should be ashamed. We really should send them everything now.

[PRTVR]

hidetheelephants said:

bmwmike said:

Christ if Ukraine falls does that mean they'll be forced to fight for Russia and we / west end up fighting them?

Pretty good odds; that's exactly what they did to all adult males in the donbass and crimea, conscripted them and sent them to die.

They even use their own troops in meat waves, from 1.40 Russian women complaining about how their men are treated.
https://youtu.be/I9OdAD6EZDo?si=VFh6UZuaIWtwCDDQ

[spookly]

jtremlett said:

spookly said:

gotoPzero said:

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

What makes you think Trump will win?

What makes you think he won't?

Wrong thread for this but he's ahead in the polls; won in 2016 when plenty of people were saying he wouldn't; Biden is unpopular; Kamala Harris is even more unpopular; Biden looks doddery and sometimes as if he may have dementia to some degree (even more so than Trump who was bonkers to start with anyway); I'm not sure all the legal stuff against Trump isn't counter-productive because it is seen as partisan. I don't know who will win but I wouldn't like to bet too much either way.

They are both absolutely rubbish candidates for sure. And surely not the best that the US has to offer.

But... Trump lost to Biden last time. I can't see that many negatives that will have turned voters away from Biden who voted for him last time.
I can see plenty of issues to turn floating voters away from Trump who voted for Trump last time.
MAGA voters who support Trump no matter what didn't save him last time, and I doubt they will this time.

Nobody will know till the votes are counted, and probably recounted, but I'd put a crisp £10 note on Biden.

[S600BSB]

gotoPzero said:

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

Not convinced that Ukraine will survive until November. Guess we will have to see how Russia’s summer offensive goes and where they choose to strike.

[W12GT]

S600BSB said:

gotoPzero said:

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

Not convinced that Ukraine will survive until November. Guess we will have to see how Russia’s summer offensive goes and where they choose to strike.

Having seen what Iran are doing tonight and what’s heading towards Israel, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something absolutely massive and horrific from Russia in the coming hours/days.

[isaldiri]

bmwmike said:

Christ if Ukraine falls does that mean they'll be forced to fight for Russia and we / west end up fighting them?

Oh i'm sure long before it came to having to fight any ukrainians drafted in by the russians, we would be suitable regaled by lots of stuff about how 'bad' the ukrainians are such that we were suitably filled with just righteousness when it's our time to smite them...

but back to reality - the US has clearly marked out that they don't want russia to win and be able to take over all of ukraine but don't obviously care about helping about retaking 2022 nevermind 2014 territory. Russia is grinding out small advances on the largely stalemated lines that have held since the Kherson retreat. 'Not winning' (as in being able to fully regain 2022 borders) is a very different thing to being defeated (as per 'Ukraine falls and becomes a russian vassal state')... The support et al will be much more forthcoming should the latter start to look likely again.

[b0rk]

spookly said:

They are both absolutely rubbish candidates for sure. And surely not the best that the US has to offer.

But... Trump lost to Biden last time. I can't see that many negatives that will have turned voters away from Biden who voted for him last time.
I can see plenty of issues to turn floating voters away from Trump who voted for Trump last time.
MAGA voters who support Trump no matter what didn't save him last time, and I doubt they will this time.

Nobody will know till the votes are counted, and probably recounted, but I'd put a crisp £10 note on Biden.

As the current situation where Biden wants to do something but can't get it through congress illustrates the US president isn't that powerful when the controlling party in congress doesn't want to work with the president at all.

What matters more is which party has control of congress and the senate.

A Biden win but with a rep house if the MAGA wing of the reps remains in the ascendency would IMHO leave him as lame duck for the next four years. Equally a trump win but with the dems regaining the house is going see to him as lame duck too.

US politics at the moment is just completely dysfunctional.

[Byker28i]

stevesingo said:

W12GT said:

I’ve said it before about Trump being as bad as Putin. His crazy followers are culpable for USA inaction to provide further support to Ukraine. As a nation they should be ashamed of themselves. Trump is a disgrace and history will not look kindly on him.

I cannot believe that ‘the civilised West’ are not supporting Ukraine sufficiently. The loser will always be the one who runs out of weapons / munitions / soldiers first.

Deeply saddened by this news for all Ukrainians but also for what will happen next, because Russia won’t stop, next it will be Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and I don’t believe NATO will do anything. Anyone in the UK with sons that are 8-45years old now could see them being sent off to fight in 10years time - assuming that would be the timeline for Russia to migrate far enough that we decide to do anything. Alternatively if
5years time then those that 13-50years old now.

Didn’t think I’d even be thinking that in my lifetime let alone typing it. I personally will never go to America again and spend my money there; additionally considering that I read an article this week that should Trump fail to win then there is a very distant chance it could descend into civil war; seems like they are already at that point politically so who knows if it could manifest into physical. If that happened, I’m pretty sure the Republicans would win because they are the nutters with all the guns!

Edited to add - All it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to stand by and do nothing.

Agreed

The wrong thread for trump, US civil war, but lets just say that trump doesn't have that many militant supporters left, the magamob being jailed has stopped any of that and trumps support is waning, down to just his base, This is why trump says he will pardon thoses jailed for the violent attack.

Meanwhile, Russian state TV experts discussed Speaker Mike Johnson's meeting with trump as the deciding factor in whether Ukraine will receive stalled US funding. Referring to Mike Johnson, state TV host Olga Skabeeva claimed him as "theirs," just like trump.

Edited by Byker28i on Sunday 14th April 06:30

[borcy]

spookly said:

They are both absolutely rubbish candidates for sure. And surely not the best that the US has to offer.

But... Trump lost to Biden last time. I can't see that many negatives that will have turned voters away from Biden who voted for him last time.
I can see plenty of issues to turn floating voters away from Trump who voted for Trump last time.
MAGA voters who support Trump no matter what didn't save him last time, and I doubt they will this time.

Nobody will know till the votes are counted, and probably recounted, but I'd put a crisp £10 note on Biden.

I wonder if biden will keep his core voters this time around though.

[borcy]

I think it's the wrong thread, the trump news feed thread is thataway --->

[W12GT]

I’ve also posted this on the Israel thread - Can anyone explain why a collective including UK and US can scramble air force support to help Israel YET we won’t step up to do the same for Ukraine? I can’t get my head around this and I’m not sure what message it sends to Ukraine and Russia.

[mikeiow]

spookly said:

jtremlett said:

spookly said:

gotoPzero said:

IMO the second Trump wins in November its over.

I expect the US powers that be in office today know that, so are scaling back their spending accordingly.

I think within a week of him taking office he will be doing the Mike Brewer <hold out yer andd> pose with Pooh-tin.

What makes you think Trump will win?

What makes you think he won't?

Wrong thread for this but he's ahead in the polls; won in 2016 when plenty of people were saying he wouldn't; Biden is unpopular; Kamala Harris is even more unpopular; Biden looks doddery and sometimes as if he may have dementia to some degree (even more so than Trump who was bonkers to start with anyway); I'm not sure all the legal stuff against Trump isn't counter-productive because it is seen as partisan. I don't know who will win but I wouldn't like to bet too much either way.

They are both absolutely rubbish candidates for sure. And surely not the best that the US has to offer.

But... Trump lost to Biden last time. I can't see that many negatives that will have turned voters away from Biden who voted for him last time.
I can see plenty of issues to turn floating voters away from Trump who voted for Trump last time.
MAGA voters who support Trump no matter what didn't save him last time, and I doubt they will this time.

Nobody will know till the votes are counted, and probably recounted, but I'd put a crisp £10 note on Biden.

Yup, me too.

Hop over here - check the links Byker posted at 06:53 today to see the mumble of nonsense Trump spouts.

borcy said:

I think it's the wrong thread, the trump news feed thread is thataway --->

Indeed, this isn’t the thread for that, but it is intrinsically linked - Ukraine really could do with some more US backing right now. It’s a tough year ahead for them

Edited by mikeiow on Sunday 14th April 07:35

[blueST]

W12GT said:

I’ve also posted this on the Israel thread - Can anyone explain why a collective including UK and US can scramble air force support to help Israel YET we won’t step up to do the same for Ukraine? I can’t get my head around this and I’m not sure what message it sends to Ukraine and Russia.

I would say it’s fairly straightforward. Iran has limited means to threaten the forces you mention, so there is not much risk in getting involved. They were intercepting stuff a good distance from Iran I would think. In Ukraine it would have to be done much closer to the front line and there’s a high risk Russia would be able to target any coalition aircraft, which would make the risk and potential consequences much worse.

[Prolex-UK]

W12GT said:

I’ve also posted this on the Israel thread - Can anyone explain why a collective including UK and US can scramble air force support to help Israel YET we won’t step up to do the same for Ukraine? I can’t get my head around this and I’m not sure what message it sends to Ukraine and Russia.

Warships not allowed into the Black sea I suspect.

[Talksteer]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Dragonfire is planned for 2027. Surely it can't be deployed now?

If they've tested a system then it could be possible to relocate test articles and early production items to Ukraine.

There are also lots of differences between a system that you intend to be operated by children (under 25 recruits) in a battlefield and one operated by engineers away from the front line.

Much of the cost and complexity comes from trying to fit a system into a compact platform like a ship or an armoured vehicle. Everything needs to be kept in alignment as the platform moves, systems need to be protected against the environment and threats like blast and fragments.

To demonstrate reliability against all of that requires a great deal of testing which when done to the luxury levels required by today's militaries takes a vast amount of time.

If you deploy it to defend a power station and you have direct contractor support you could deploy it much earlier, basically limited by whatever none commercial off the shelf components there are in it.

[JNW1]

W12GT said:

I’ve also posted this on the Israel thread - Can anyone explain why a collective including UK and US can scramble air force support to help Israel YET we won’t step up to do the same for Ukraine? I can’t get my head around this and I’m not sure what message it sends to Ukraine and Russia.

I share your frustration to a large extent but I guess the simple answer is there's a greater fear of escalating things with Russia than there is of escalating things with Iran and its allies in the Middle East. Whether that fear of escalation with Russia is well founded is of course another matter and even if it is it begs the question how far do you let Putin go before you finally stand-up to him? There's also the question of whether delaying standing-up to him could actually make it more painful to do so if it eventually comes to a point where you have no choice.

If only we had some history we could draw on to help us understand the potential pitfalls associated with appeasing an aggressive bully.....

[Skeptisk]

JNW1 said:

I share your frustration to a large extent but I guess the simple answer is there's a greater fear of escalating things with Russia than there is of escalating things with Iran and its allies in the Middle East. Whether that fear of escalation with Russia is well founded is of course another matter and even if it is it begs the question how far do you let Putin go before you finally stand-up to him? There's also the question of whether delaying standing-up to him could actually make it more painful to do so if it eventually comes to a point where you have no choice.

If only we had some history we could draw on to help us understand the potential pitfalls associated with appeasing an aggressive bully.....

From a neutral perspective it is hard not to see the US as an aggressive bully, when you look at what they have done for the last century, particularly post WW2 with invasions, support of dictators, funding and arming terrorists, etc. That isn’t said in support of Putin or Russia but other countries eg China, India, African countries don’t necessarily share your one-sided view of things.

Things looking bleak for Ukraine. There was a report the other day that soldiers who were to be released from duty because of how long they have fought in the conflict will now have to fight on as there are not sufficient replacements. That is hardly likely to lift moral.

[RichFN2]

JNW1 said:

W12GT said:

I’ve also posted this on the Israel thread - Can anyone explain why a collective including UK and US can scramble air force support to help Israel YET we won’t step up to do the same for Ukraine? I can’t get my head around this and I’m not sure what message it sends to Ukraine and Russia.

I share your frustration to a large extent but I guess the simple answer is there's a greater fear of escalating things with Russia than there is of escalating things with Iran and its allies in the Middle East. Whether that fear of escalation with Russia is well founded is of course another matter and even if it is it begs the question how far do you let Putin go before you finally stand-up to him? There's also the question of whether delaying standing-up to him could actually make it more painful to do so if it eventually comes to a point where you have no choice.

If only we had some history we could draw on to help us understand the potential pitfalls associated with appeasing an aggressive bully.....

Basically that in a nutshell, unfortunately the enormous nuclear arsenal that Russia has means everyone is approaching with extreme caution (and rightly so)

If it wasn't for that then I am sure by now we would of seen a similar situation to NATO striking targets within Serbia.

You could argue that Russia's natural resources also play a part,which they probably do to a degree but those will still be there is Putin was disposed of.

[_Al_]

The potential silver lining to all this is a comment in the news yesterday that the military assistance bill for Israel and Ukraine will be tabled in congress on Monday. Getting it through the procedural stuff is said to have been the main issue so hopefully this will help unlock US support to Ukraine. It may be a side effect, but any route to support is a good one.

[TEKNOPUG]

Simply because there is a real risk of allied aircraft being shot down in Ukraine, or engaging piloted aircraft. Whereas none of that exists over Israel and Jordan.