Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

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Discussion

paulw123

3,254 posts

191 months

Monday 29th April
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Rumblestripe said:
Imagine if instead of a lovely victory parade through Moscow, a few tanks, some phallic missiles, goose stepping soldiers and sailors, a fly past of some warplanes, etc. on 9th May, someone blew up a big bridge...

Now that's what I'd call a celebration!
That would be a proper celebration.

hidetheelephants

24,655 posts

194 months

Monday 29th April
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Biggy Stardust said:
hidetheelephants said:
It's got nothing to do with the submunitions and everything with dropping unguided weapons on or near civilian buildings with civvies in.
Dresden, Coventry, Hiroshima, Nagasaki?
They happened before any of the relevant law was written, it is likely these bombing attacks influenced those drafting the law.

Biggy Stardust

6,954 posts

45 months

Monday 29th April
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
They happened before any of the relevant law was written, it is likely these bombing attacks influenced those drafting the law.
I like the way America supports war crimes trials but only for non-Americans. They made it legal to invade Holland if the Hague prosecutes the wrong people, eg those many Americans responsible for war crimes or violations of the Geneva convention.

I don't think Russia, N.Korea or China are massive supporters either, so it all becomes a bit pointless.

Evanivitch

20,220 posts

123 months

Monday 29th April
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hidetheelephants said:
Evanivitch said:
hidetheelephants said:
There's no possible about it, unguided weapons into a civilian area is a war crime.
No, it's not that clear cut, ever.

And whilst many nations have signed up to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, it doesn't constitute a war crime if they are used.
It's got nothing to do with the submunitions and everything with dropping unguided weapons on or near civilian buildings with civvies in.
Which doesn't constitute a war crime in itself. You'd have to consider the military value of the intended target, the proportionality of the weapon system used, and the risk of civilian casualties.

Accurately Dropping a small unguided munition on a military target in a civilian area for example would be considered proportional if the use of unguided munitions was justified.

J4CKO

41,680 posts

201 months

Monday 29th April
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CharlesdeGaulle said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Well yeah. But Putin's future is bleak whatever happens.

He can't retire, he can only leave this job in a box. When he becomes frail, he's ****ed, probably before. Being raped and beaten in prison is a very real possibility in the medium term.

A warm clean cell in the Hague, medical care, food, no abuse is probably better than his actual end will be.

I suppose the downside of all that is that nuking the world will be pretty tempting for him when he becomes more frail.
Won't happen. He holds 'the West' in contempt. He'll cling to power, and remember that it's pretty absolute, until the end. They genuinely believe this existential rivalry bullst.
It’s not “The West” he hates, it’s democracy as it prevents your friendly neighbourhood dictator doing whatever the fk they please, democracies are t perfect but they aren’t basically state mafia.

It’s like scrotes that profess to hate the Police, of course you hate anyone that cramps your lifestyle, if you get on with life without commuting crime it’s unlikely you will have any dealings.


He believes his own bullst and is now balls deep in a horrendous conflict, he is taking his country down the tubes, but you allow an ex KGB grunt with a Napoleon complex get to the top, this is what happens, cream rises to the top but in the case a turd floated to the top.

Like with my tropical fish tank, the minute he gets frail or shows any weakness, he will be gone, hurry the fk up !




isaldiri

18,670 posts

169 months

Monday 29th April
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
There's no possible about it, unguided weapons into a civilian area is a war crime.
Doesn't particularly seem to have bothered the israelis. The US diverted a whole heap of 155 shells meant for ukraine to Israel last year who have been using them in gaza all throughout.

Talksteer

4,909 posts

234 months

Monday 29th April
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
hidetheelephants said:
There's no possible about it, unguided weapons into a civilian area is a war crime.
Doesn't particularly seem to have bothered the israelis. The US diverted a whole heap of 155 shells meant for ukraine to Israel last year who have been using them in gaza all throughout.
By that logic firing an unguided small arms round in a town would be a war crime.

It is allowable to fire unguided artillery into urban areas containing civilians provided there is a military need and an identifiable target, the US/UK did this plenty in Iraq see Faluja. The Israelis would argue that they are targeting Hamas and where possible giving civilians notice of their actions and designating spaces for civilians to go.





CivicDuties

4,810 posts

31 months

Tuesday 30th April
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J4CKO said:
CharlesdeGaulle said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Well yeah. But Putin's future is bleak whatever happens.

He can't retire, he can only leave this job in a box. When he becomes frail, he's ****ed, probably before. Being raped and beaten in prison is a very real possibility in the medium term.

A warm clean cell in the Hague, medical care, food, no abuse is probably better than his actual end will be.

I suppose the downside of all that is that nuking the world will be pretty tempting for him when he becomes more frail.
Won't happen. He holds 'the West' in contempt. He'll cling to power, and remember that it's pretty absolute, until the end. They genuinely believe this existential rivalry bullst.
It’s not “The West” he hates, it’s democracy as it prevents your friendly neighbourhood dictator doing whatever the fk they please, democracies are t perfect but they aren’t basically state mafia.

It’s like scrotes that profess to hate the Police, of course you hate anyone that cramps your lifestyle, if you get on with life without commuting crime it’s unlikely you will have any dealings.


He believes his own bullst and is now balls deep in a horrendous conflict, he is taking his country down the tubes, but you allow an ex KGB grunt with a Napoleon complex get to the top, this is what happens, cream rises to the top but in the case a turd floated to the top.

Like with my tropical fish tank, the minute he gets frail or shows any weakness, he will be gone, hurry the fk up !



Whilst I understand the sentiment, we have to ask "what then?"

Could be better, could be worse. Balance of probability at the moment? I'd say it'd be more likely a worse situation will evolve, in the form of an even more hardline deluded nutter. I can't see it going "Putin gone - sudden and immediate return to rational democratic model of government".

Sadly.

J4CKO

41,680 posts

201 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
CivicDuties said:
J4CKO said:
CharlesdeGaulle said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Well yeah. But Putin's future is bleak whatever happens.

He can't retire, he can only leave this job in a box. When he becomes frail, he's ****ed, probably before. Being raped and beaten in prison is a very real possibility in the medium term.

A warm clean cell in the Hague, medical care, food, no abuse is probably better than his actual end will be.

I suppose the downside of all that is that nuking the world will be pretty tempting for him when he becomes more frail.
Won't happen. He holds 'the West' in contempt. He'll cling to power, and remember that it's pretty absolute, until the end. They genuinely believe this existential rivalry bullst.
It’s not “The West” he hates, it’s democracy as it prevents your friendly neighbourhood dictator doing whatever the fk they please, democracies are t perfect but they aren’t basically state mafia.

It’s like scrotes that profess to hate the Police, of course you hate anyone that cramps your lifestyle, if you get on with life without commuting crime it’s unlikely you will have any dealings.


He believes his own bullst and is now balls deep in a horrendous conflict, he is taking his country down the tubes, but you allow an ex KGB grunt with a Napoleon complex get to the top, this is what happens, cream rises to the top but in the case a turd floated to the top.

Like with my tropical fish tank, the minute he gets frail or shows any weakness, he will be gone, hurry the fk up !



Whilst I understand the sentiment, we have to ask "what then?"

Could be better, could be worse. Balance of probability at the moment? I'd say it'd be more likely a worse situation will evolve, in the form of an even more hardline deluded nutter. I can't see it going "Putin gone - sudden and immediate return to rational democratic model of government".

Sadly.
True, but it gives them a chance to back out of it "It was all him, he was a knobhead who made us do all this", anyone else coming in is likely younger, probably not as hell bent on taking territory whatever the cost, its Putins war, he is the boss and what he says goes but if he is gone, there is a chance of change.

As it is, there is no change, Russian mentality is of grim determination despite all indications that its going a bit st, two and a bit years, getting on for half a million killed and injured, war economy, sanctions, nuke threats yadda yadda, someone new, even if it isnt someone like Navalny (it wont be) might just want to get on with building palaces, rinsing the system, buying yachts etc.

Putin just kind of got on with it for a long time, Russia could be doing very nicely with tourism, trade and whatever, but no, he chose this stupid, pointless war, whatever he can gain has long since been surpassed by the mess he has created, anyone with half a brain can see that, even the biggest bully in the world will generally avoid getting a pasting but Putin is balls deep, stuck on this path, would anyone new, even eing Russian, really think its a great way to proceed ?

AmyRichardson

1,114 posts

43 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
True, but it gives them a chance to back out of it "It was all him, he was a knobhead who made us do all this", anyone else coming in is likely younger, probably not as hell bent on taking territory whatever the cost, its Putins war, he is the boss and what he says goes but if he is gone, there is a chance of change.

As it is, there is no change, Russian mentality is of grim determination despite all indications that its going a bit st, two and a bit years, getting on for half a million killed and injured, war economy, sanctions, nuke threats yadda yadda, someone new, even if it isnt someone like Navalny (it wont be) might just want to get on with building palaces, rinsing the system, buying yachts etc.

Putin just kind of got on with it for a long time, Russia could be doing very nicely with tourism, trade and whatever, but no, he chose this stupid, pointless war, whatever he can gain has long since been surpassed by the mess he has created, anyone with half a brain can see that, even the biggest bully in the world will generally avoid getting a pasting but Putin is balls deep, stuck on this path, would anyone new, even eing Russian, really think its a great way to proceed ?
I've a similar impression; the hardest and most machiavellian of top-tier insiders are politically agnostic and they'd gnaw there own arm off to get a return to a bit of mafia-state business as usual. The ultra-nationalist shouters are all mid-tier or paid/obliged sock puppets.

Putin hasn't really moved, nor does he seem intent to, to try a Oprichnina type experiment whereby he gets rid of the existing elite and grants power to ideologically aligned and personally loyal nobodies. The people at the top are still people who have their own interests and power bases.

Digga

40,391 posts

284 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
Whatever those respective power bases, fiefdoms and rackets are, there will be very few that are not markedly worse now than 2 years previous. It cannot, eventually, go unnoticed or considered. At a certain point, money, power, status and lifestyle are all gradually sliding down the crapper.

pingu393

7,858 posts

206 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
True, but it gives them a chance to back out of it "It was all him, he was a knobhead who made us do all this", anyone else coming in is likely younger, probably not as hell bent on taking territory whatever the cost, its Putins war, he is the boss and what he says goes but if he is gone, there is a chance of change.

As it is, there is no change, Russian mentality is of grim determination despite all indications that its going a bit st, two and a bit years, getting on for half a million killed and injured, war economy, sanctions, nuke threats yadda yadda, someone new, even if it isnt someone like Navalny (it wont be) might just want to get on with building palaces, rinsing the system, buying yachts etc.

Putin just kind of got on with it for a long time, Russia could be doing very nicely with tourism, trade and whatever, but no, he chose this stupid, pointless war, whatever he can gain has long since been surpassed by the mess he has created, anyone with half a brain can see that, even the biggest bully in the world will generally avoid getting a pasting but Putin is balls deep, stuck on this path, would anyone new, even eing Russian, really think its a great way to proceed ?
Stop thinking about him as if her were a normal politician. Think of him like Vito Corleone. What would he do?

He has decided to take on the local ice cream seller who has been getting along nicely selling ice creams and doing a bit of weed on the side.

Vito sees the opportunity to take over and expand his cocaine and heroin empire, but first he has to take over.

He sends some of his best lads round to Hostemel, but they get their arses kicked, but worst of all the whole world saw it.

So he sends loads of guys to the big house, but the trucks get stuck in the sandy driveway. Worst case scenario, now. Everybody is laughing at Vito.

What else is there to do, but to slowly and methodically show the world that nobody laughs at Don Corleone?


The only solution is to destroy the Corleone empire, but how? And what will fill the vacuum? Will it be Tony "say hello to my little friend" Montana or Councillor Roberts from Coronation Street?

Abbott

2,451 posts

204 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
Digga said:
Whatever those respective power bases, fiefdoms and rackets are, there will be very few that are not markedly worse now than 2 years previous. It cannot, eventually, go unnoticed or considered. At a certain point, money, power, status and lifestyle are all gradually sliding down the crapper.
All of Billy Big Balls oligarchs who became used to lording around all of the glamorous places in the world must be getting really tired of sitting in their Dachas with only their other neighbours to show off to.

isaldiri

18,670 posts

169 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
Abbott said:
All of Billy Big Balls oligarchs who became used to lording around all of the glamorous places in the world must be getting really tired of sitting in their Dachas with only their other neighbours to show off to.
They are just lording around various places outside of the EU and US like Turkey, Dubai, the Maldives.....

Digga

40,391 posts

284 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
Abbott said:
All of Billy Big Balls oligarchs who became used to lording around all of the glamorous places in the world must be getting really tired of sitting in their Dachas with only their other neighbours to show off to.
They are just lording around various places outside of the EU and US like Turkey, Dubai, the Maldives.....
Correct.

First place I ever encountered them was Dubai, circa 2003. At first I thought it was some z-list boob-job celeb and her minder pushing into the breakfast queue, but I then realised it was some knucle dragging Russo-gangster and his trophy wife.

CivicDuties

4,810 posts

31 months

Tuesday 30th April
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My son's just come back from backpacking in Thailand/Cambodia. Says Thailand is absolutely rammed with Ruzzians.

Cheib

23,301 posts

176 months

Tuesday 30th April
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Daz68 said:
TheJimi said:
...of which the Russians won't give the square root of a rat's arse about.
So true. Putin to go to trial. Not a chance in hell.
There is already an international arrest warrant for him because of the abduction of children from Ukraine….I think it was South Africa he was supposed to go to for a conference that he had to pull out of because of it. The SA Govt was all for letting him in but bowed to “pressure”

Unfortunately because he’s already had an arrest warrant issued he cares even less about future crimes.

The ICC needs to start charging people lower down the food chain….I am sure there will be detailed knowledge of which units are responsible for these crimes. I would love to know what is stopping the ICC from charging the commanding officers etc.

Edited by Cheib on Tuesday 30th April 12:26

Biggy Stardust

6,954 posts

45 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
Cheib said:
The ICC needs to start charging people lower down the food chain….I am sure there will be detailed knowledge of which units are responsible for these crimes. I would love to know what is stopping the ICC from charging the commanding officers etc.
How would you envisage these charges being enforced, eg arrest & trial?

J4CKO

41,680 posts

201 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
CivicDuties said:
My son's just come back from backpacking in Thailand/Cambodia. Says Thailand is absolutely rammed with Ruzzians.
Makes you wonder what they are flying on, and the state of them, first post in this vol mentions the state of Russian aviation...

isaldiri

18,670 posts

169 months

Tuesday 30th April
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
CivicDuties said:
My son's just come back from backpacking in Thailand/Cambodia. Says Thailand is absolutely rammed with Ruzzians.
Makes you wonder what they are flying on, and the state of them, first post in this vol mentions the state of Russian aviation...
What makes you think they necessarily are flying by russian airlines?