Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
TopTrump said:
spookly said:
Really?
Who would be on russia's side apart from NK and Iran?
South Africa, Hungary, India China and quite a few more. Who would be on russia's side apart from NK and Iran?
TopTrump said:
If it becomes a religious war is one. Quite possible, especially with Iran
How is it "quite possible"? Take a step back and think about what you're saying. TopTrump said:
South Africa, Hungary, India China and quite a few more.
Really? I think not.India has a strained relationship with Russia and has for some time. A lot of the stuff that Russia sold India hasn’t or doesnt work, and they are pissed. They have also embarked on a program of diversification for their military equipment - doesnt sound like it’s a particular strong relationship. Modi (who a lot of Indians call a lot of names) is treading a very fine line and he knows it. Buying cheap oil is a little dangerous, but then again, India has none, so somewhat clever. But India needs to play the game, and they are. There is absolutely no change they would run to defend Russia.
China? Oh, that nation that has called out Russia for the whole invasion in the first place? Or the country that has done the bare minimum to ‘stay friends’? Yeah, Russia needs China more than China needs Russia - and they know it. Cheap oil and gas is all well and good, but if they get involved and the West turns off the import of Chinese goods, well just take a look at some of the reports about how precarious the Chinese economy is.
Hungary? All huff and bluster. Maybe they would do something, but when all of your neighbors are firmly on the other side, that would be a rather disastrous strategy. Iran maybe, but they just had their drone factories destroyed last night, so I wonder what will happen there. Come to the aid of Russia? Again, not seeing it. Shared enemy, but also a couple of opponents that arent afraid to launch attacks, and a lot of civil unrest, so dodgy time at best.
Nah, Russia is on its own. Wont comment on SA, because I dont know, but I think others have commented about this.
TopTrump said:
Do you want to try and sound a little more condescending?
No, I think I got the level of condescension about right for the quality of the post I was addressing. TopTrump said:
The West isn't Universally liked believe it or not. Which bit are you not connecting?
The bit where "the West not being universally liked" means that states like South Africa, China and India start militarily supporting Russia. Which isn't going to happen. Talksteer said:
I'm this environment the soldiers who have survived are likely to be the ones who, simulated assaults, abandoned their kit, stole their kit off other units, fell back while the unit they were meant to support got chewed up etc. etc.
That is a *really* good point. I would guess that when a unit is destroyed, the survivors often aren't the guys who really got stuck in. (On average...)Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Sunday 29th January 21:09
HM-2 said:
No, I think I got the level of condescension about right for the quality of the post I was addressing.
Oh dear. Iran is 99.4% Muslim. You conveniently missed that when quoting me- hence religious war.
Are you happy at home? You seem angry and unnecessary?
Edited by TopTrump on Sunday 29th January 21:05
TopTrump said:
Oh dear.
Iran is 99.4% Muslim. You conveniently missed that when quoting me- hence religious war.
I'm fully aware that Iran is almost entirely Muslim. What this doesn't have is any relevance to you're suggestion there's an "alliance of Russian allies ready to kick of a global war", as was so eloquently put by another poster. Iran is 99.4% Muslim. You conveniently missed that when quoting me- hence religious war.
It's very clear you have absolutely no idea what you're on about.
TopTrump said:
Oh dear.
Iran is 99.4% Muslim. You conveniently missed that when quoting me- hence religious war.
Are you happy at home? You seem angry and unnecessary?
Muslim Iran is going to follow orthodox Russia into a holy war ?Iran is 99.4% Muslim. You conveniently missed that when quoting me- hence religious war.
Are you happy at home? You seem angry and unnecessary?
Edited by TopTrump on Sunday 29th January 21:05
And multi faith India is going to follow? Along with South Africa?
Well it's a take.
BikeBikeBIke said:
off_again said:
Nah, Russia is on its own.
Very much this. Nobody is looking at a difficult, expensive, attritional nightmare and thinking "I'd like some of that."....and if there were counties that wanted in they'd have already joined in.
I think Russia got egged on a bit possibly, and the rest are now starting at their shoes a bit, even Belarus who are in Putins pocket have managed to not get involved.
CrutyRammers said:
Muslim Iran is going to follow orthodox Russia into a holy war ?
And multi faith India is going to follow? Along with South Africa?
Well it's a take.
Twelver Shi'a Muslim Iran, no less, a sect representing about 9% of global Muslims, despised by a significant proportion of Sunnis, and a country broadly hated by most Shi'a to boot. And multi faith India is going to follow? Along with South Africa?
Well it's a take.
It's amongst the silliest things I've ever read on this forum.
off_again said:
China? Oh, that nation that has called out Russia for the whole invasion in the first place? Or the country that has done the bare minimum to ‘stay friends’? Yeah, Russia needs China more than China needs Russia - and they know it. Cheap oil and gas is all well and good, but if they get involved and the West turns off the import of Chinese goods, well just take a look at some of the reports about how precarious the Chinese economy is.
Eh?https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/25/china-de...
China December 2022 said:
With regard to the Ukraine crisis, we have consistently upheld the fundamental principles of objectivity and impartiality, without favouring one side or the other, or adding fuel to the fire, still less seeking selfish gains from the situation,” Wang said, according to an official text of his remarks.
He added China would “deepen strategic mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation” with Russia. Warships from the two countries held joint naval drills in the East China Sea last week
Not forgetting that China had been increasingly threatening in it's posture towards Taiwan in early 2022.He added China would “deepen strategic mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation” with Russia. Warships from the two countries held joint naval drills in the East China Sea last week
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/asia/china-taiw...
For a perspective on the German reticence around - well, everything Russia related. I listened to a The Rest is History podcast today on the rise of the nasty guy who started the second world war. Which said the lebensraum ideology in the German-leader-at-the-time's rant prison monologue was entirely aimed at a Russian destruction and land grab.
It puts some historical light on the relationship between those two countries and the provision of military aid from Germany. But it's no excuse for one or the other, let's be clear.
It puts some historical light on the relationship between those two countries and the provision of military aid from Germany. But it's no excuse for one or the other, let's be clear.
Evanivitch said:
Not forgetting that China had been increasingly threatening in it's posture towards Taiwan in early 2022.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/asia/china-taiw...
Have a listen to Peter Zeihan on Taiwan. Taiwan is a mountainous island, both massive obstacles to invasion. It could probably develop a nuclear bomb faster than China could accumulate an invasion force.https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/asia/china-taiw...
It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
BikeBikeBIke said:
Have a listen to Peter Zeihan on Taiwan. Taiwan is a mountainous island, both massive obstacles to invasion. It could probably develop a nuclear bomb faster than China could accumulate an invasion force.
It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
Nearly the entire Taiwanese population is on the Western coast, just 100 miles from China and only 200 miles long. It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
And because of that Taiwan has massive food security issues, being only 35% self sufficient (reference UK imports 46%).
https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2570
China wouldn't need to use land forces when it's Navy and air force would be sufficiently effective if Taiwan was not in receipt of US/Japan/Australia support.
Evanivitch said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Have a listen to Peter Zeihan on Taiwan. Taiwan is a mountainous island, both massive obstacles to invasion. It could probably develop a nuclear bomb faster than China could accumulate an invasion force.
It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
Nearly the entire Taiwanese population is on the Western coast, just 100 miles from China and only 200 miles long. It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
And because of that Taiwan has massive food security issues, being only 35% self sufficient (reference UK imports 46%).
https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2570
China wouldn't need to use land forces when it's Navy and air force would be sufficiently effective if Taiwan was not in receipt of US/Japan/Australia support.
J4CKO said:
Evanivitch said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Have a listen to Peter Zeihan on Taiwan. Taiwan is a mountainous island, both massive obstacles to invasion. It could probably develop a nuclear bomb faster than China could accumulate an invasion force.
It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
Nearly the entire Taiwanese population is on the Western coast, just 100 miles from China and only 200 miles long. It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
And because of that Taiwan has massive food security issues, being only 35% self sufficient (reference UK imports 46%).
https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2570
China wouldn't need to use land forces when it's Navy and air force would be sufficiently effective if Taiwan was not in receipt of US/Japan/Australia support.
TopTrump said:
S600BSB said:
I don't know anything about how long it takes to transport tanks and train their crews to operate them, but will the new Western armour get to Ukraine in time to support the response to Russia's spring offensive? Presumably Putin will be encouraging his generals to accelerate plans as far as possible etc.
Thing is we are only told what they tell us. I'd imagine by the time it hits mainstream media, it's done 
J4CKO said:
Does anyone think China have held back invading Taiwan based on seeing how well Russia's little operation is going and how popular they are as a nation ?
It certainly will have made them question just how much Western hardware and how effective it could be.The difference however is that increasingly the Chinese Navy would be capable of an effective blockade of Taiwan which would be somewhat different to the Polish border that is currently the main flow of hardware into Ukraine.
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