45th President Of The United States, Donald Trump (Vol. 14)

[Blackpuddin]

Countdown said:

dobbo_ said:

LF5335 said:

dobbo_ said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and state that I believe multiple criminal trials for things like fraud and espionage, are not the same as a recording of him speaking to a reporter and saying gross things.

Change the record.

I'm sure that seemed clever when you wrote it.

I missed out looming bankruptcy and the total collapse of his businesses. The entire documented history of his electoral failures. The total financial collapse of the GOP leading into a general election

But you know, you guys have a bad feeling so, you do you.

His businesses collapse all the time but he seems to walk away with more money each time.

In terms of bankruptcy - his stake in TS is apparently worth $$$billions.

In which case why is he flogging Bibbels at $60 a pop? Those Bibles btw have apparently been sitting in warehouses since 2021 when Lee Greenwood printed them to 'commemorate' September 11th.

[Rivenink]

Randy Winkman said:

ScotHill said:

Countdown said:

In terms of bankruptcy - his stake in TS is apparently worth $$$billions.

I think this is what some people are talking about - it's been explained on here and with links to professionals in the industry how it may be worth billions on paper, but there are limitations on what he can do with it, and if he starts to sell it in quantity then the price will tank.

It would still be worth something, as long as there are enough mugs to buy it at a high enough price, but he's not sitting on top of billions of dollar bills, far from it.

I admit I'm a total IT numpty but I don't get why TS has value when X seems to be going the other way. Aren't people passed that sort of stuff now?

The value of anything is always ultimately what the buyer will pay.

And Trump has a lot of people who'll buy the stocks from a position of political principle, rather than good investment strategy.

It's another grift to rip off the fools that follow him.

[Mortarboard]

But unfortunately, the presidential race in November will be close, regardless of what happens. The US is seriously polarized.

It'll be a long, nervous 24 hours after the polls close and the counting begins.

And then the election denial/interference/shenanigans will continue.

But hopefully it'll be a fish, flopping on the riverbank, gasping.

M.

[satans worm]

For those who say he wont get away with it, whilst i hope its true and justice will prevail, i can see the following outs for Trump (note the only law knowledge i have is from John Grishman novels )

Criminal case, how do you get a neutral juror? Some will be anti trump, some maybe agnostic (not sure if any like that exist) and for sure, some will be MAGA people. Its naive to think if the prosecutor shows undisputable evidence that he is guilty they will vote accordingly, im not sure of the percentage of jurors required to say he is not guilty for the verdict to be undecided, but i feel this could be one way out for him. (or at least to delay it)

He also has the chance for paying enough off, high risk and you could go to jail, but then, if your already going to jail.... it would at least delay it once more (and he wont link it to him giving the order of course)

Plus MAGA crazies threatening a juror

Or one of the jurors having a shady background thats revealed mid way through the proceedings so they need to start again (more delays)

Or the prosecutor does something silly like have an affair with a person on their team causing doubt over the trial

Then, even if none of the above thriller book type plots happen, will he go to jail? or will he be house arrest in Marlago? playing golf and entertaining people whilst spouting off about how crooked and unjust everything is ,still making the headlines trying to rile people up whilst writing his memoirs to sell and make a fortune from.

I wish a complete media ban was possible as that would def hurt his ego the most, no one hearing him!

What ever happens, i recon there will be some good films coming out in the future on exactly what took part in the last 10 years or so...

Edited by satans worm on Thursday 28th March 12:42

[Countdown]

Blackpuddin said:

Countdown said:

dobbo_ said:

LF5335 said:

dobbo_ said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and state that I believe multiple criminal trials for things like fraud and espionage, are not the same as a recording of him speaking to a reporter and saying gross things.

Change the record.

I'm sure that seemed clever when you wrote it.

I missed out looming bankruptcy and the total collapse of his businesses. The entire documented history of his electoral failures. The total financial collapse of the GOP leading into a general election

But you know, you guys have a bad feeling so, you do you.

His businesses collapse all the time but he seems to walk away with more money each time.

In terms of bankruptcy - his stake in TS is apparently worth $$$billions.

In which case why is he flogging Bibbels at $60 a pop? Those Bibles btw have apparently been sitting in warehouses since 2021 when Lee Greenwood printed them to 'commemorate' September 11th.

[satans worm]

Rivenink said:

Randy Winkman said:

ScotHill said:

Countdown said:

In terms of bankruptcy - his stake in TS is apparently worth $$$billions.

I think this is what some people are talking about - it's been explained on here and with links to professionals in the industry how it may be worth billions on paper, but there are limitations on what he can do with it, and if he starts to sell it in quantity then the price will tank.

It would still be worth something, as long as there are enough mugs to buy it at a high enough price, but he's not sitting on top of billions of dollar bills, far from it.

I admit I'm a total IT numpty but I don't get why TS has value when X seems to be going the other way. Aren't people passed that sort of stuff now?

The value of anything is always ultimately what the buyer will pay.

And Trump has a lot of people who'll buy the stocks from a position of political principle, rather than good investment strategy.

It's another grift to rip off the fools that follow him.

In fairness the value of a stock is not from todays profit or yesterdays losses but the possible future profit, if the market see TS as becoming the next Twitter then it would be valued the same as Twitter, even though todays its losing cash / not the same size,

[minimoog]

Section 47 of that analysis is the most interesting to me. I can readily see a conviction with a $5K fine per count and no jail time (based on no previous and no other concommitant serious charges) being imposed. Whoopdie-doo.

[satans worm]

Strangely Brown said:

satans worm said:

Strangely Brown said:

satans worm said:

XCP said:

I can't see him reaching 100 to be honest.

He did a deal with my boss who agreed to allow him to live until at least 101

Isn't the deal supposed to be that your boss gets his soul? I can't help feeling that your boss, too, has been suckered.

you think Trump has a soul?

No, that was rather my point.

The boss isnt stupid, he took his soul upfront..

[Mortarboard]

Speed said:

Thoughts on what the MAGAmob would do in each scenario ?

In a broader sense, hopefully we'll see the end/beginning of the end for this generation of the boebarts/mtg/gaetz type folk.
Until the next set of loons comes along, anyway. I'd be hopeful that the gop would eventually learn that "you can't fool all the people all the time". But I have my doubts.

A sharper concern would be isolated, but extreme violence. Bigger than the attack on pelosi's husband, but smaller than Jan 6th.

But more deaths than either.

M.

[gregs656]

Mortarboard said:

But unfortunately, the presidential race in November will be close, regardless of what happens. The US is seriously polarized.

A lot can change between then and now but another plausible narrative is it won’t be close at all; the significant percentage of Republicans who say they won’t vote for Trump stay at home, the purple states go blue and the whole thing is straightforward.

I think the US is polarized but crucially things are going pretty well for a lot of people at the moment which depresses a lot of social tension - Trumps message is simply not attracting people at the moment; not at the polls, not at his events and not donors.

[Mortarboard]

gregs656 said:

Mortarboard said:

But unfortunately, the presidential race in November will be close, regardless of what happens. The US is seriously polarized.

A lot can change between then and now but another plausible narrative is it won’t be close at all; the significant percentage of Republicans who say they won’t vote for Trump stay at home, the purple states go blue and the whole thing is straightforward.

I think the US is polarized but crucially things are going pretty well for a lot of people at the moment which depresses a lot of social tension - Trumps message is simply not attracting people at the moment; not at the polls, not at his events and not donors.

There's potential for huge swings for sure.

But it's swings within a subset of the electorate, which is likely to be no more than 10-15% of the actual voters

Turnout is critical- for both sides this year. Trump's a walking liability, and biden isn't exactly a Rockstar!

M.

[LF5335]

Byker28i said:

I've posted several times in response, yet still the same point reiterated - no discussion... Honestly, you can see why some get frustrated.

I’m happy to reply, as I have done numerous times to your posts, but there’s not much I can say to your recent ones. They’re as much conjecture as mine are.

I’ve made a new point. I have stated that I do not believe the trial will start on April 15th. That’s about as specific a comment as I can make, because I have no idea what random delay Trump and his bunch of Ambulance Chasers will do, but they will do something. Take me to task if it does go ahead, I’ll be happy for you and others to have a go, because at least a criminal trial has started. We’ve been waiting for one forever. I’ll even promise to apologise unreservedly to all and sundry. If it doesn’t though, maybe some could stop with their little digs. How’s that for a quid pro quo?

[gregs656]

Mortarboard said:

There's potential for huge swings for sure.

But it's swings within a subset of the electorate, which is likely to be no more than 10-15% of the actual voters

Turnout is critical- for both sides this year. Trump's a walking liability, and biden isn't exactly a Rockstar!

M.

I think it would take a pretty big swing towards Trump at this point. At the moment he has lost not only the traditional floating voters but a sizeable chunk of traditional GOP voters as well. Alarm bells should be ringing when people are motivated enough to vote in a Republican primary for someone no longer on the ballot.

I agree that there is a risk Dems just don't turn out.

This isn't like 2016 or even 2020 though.

One thing the charges against him have done, and he has done to him self, is basically freeze him in 2020. He is still going on about the last election and so are his faithful.

Meanwhile people are, by and large, having a pretty good time of it right now.

[Bonefish Blues]

LF5335 said:

Byker28i said:

I've posted several times in response, yet still the same point reiterated - no discussion... Honestly, you can see why some get frustrated.

I’m happy to reply, as I have done numerous times to your posts, but there’s not much I can say to your recent ones. They’re as much conjecture as mine are.

I’ve made a new point. I have stated that I do not believe the trial will start on April 15th. That’s about as specific a comment as I can make, because I have no idea what random delay Trump and his bunch of Ambulance Chasers will do, but they will do something. Take me to task if it does go ahead, I’ll be happy for you and others to have a go, because at least a criminal trial has started. We’ve been waiting for one forever. I’ll even promise to apologise unreservedly to all and sundry. If it doesn’t though, maybe some could stop with their little digs. How’s that for a quid pro quo?

Seems that a venue (NY County) change is being applied for by the Trump team. No idea how long that takes to be heard (S15 of the essay)

[Byker28i]

At least mine points to several facts to back up my opinion, rather than just an opinion. Yeah but...

[Byker28i]

Bonefish Blues said:

LF5335 said:

Byker28i said:

I've posted several times in response, yet still the same point reiterated - no discussion... Honestly, you can see why some get frustrated.

I’m happy to reply, as I have done numerous times to your posts, but there’s not much I can say to your recent ones. They’re as much conjecture as mine are.

I’ve made a new point. I have stated that I do not believe the trial will start on April 15th. That’s about as specific a comment as I can make, because I have no idea what random delay Trump and his bunch of Ambulance Chasers will do, but they will do something. Take me to task if it does go ahead, I’ll be happy for you and others to have a go, because at least a criminal trial has started. We’ve been waiting for one forever. I’ll even promise to apologise unreservedly to all and sundry. If it doesn’t though, maybe some could stop with their little digs. How’s that for a quid pro quo?

Seems that a venue (NY County) change is being applied for by the Trump team. No idea how long that takes to be heard (S15 of the essay)

Standard trump MO thats been refused everytime. Claim he can't get a fair trial in NY

[Byker28i]

As trumps struggling for money, drowning under legal bills, Biden and Obama and Clintons fundraiser on Thursday claims it'll bring in $25m, the most money every raised for an event like this
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/28/biden-cam...

[Unreal]

Whoozit said:

Countdown said:

In terms of bankruptcy - his stake in TS is apparently worth $$$billions.

- He is contractually prohibited from accessing it for six months, nor can it be used to raise money. Although I speculate if there is wiggle room to allow it to be used to pay fines. Depends on the exact detailed wording which isn't publicly available.

- It is one of the more shorted stocks currently, reportedly 10% of the free float is borrowed for shorting. Shorting is a bet it'll go down. The reason the short amount isn't even higher, is that a lot of the shares are locked up.

- In the nine months of 2023, the last reporting period, the business lost $49m on revenue (not profit - revenue) of $3.3m

- If he tries to sell more than a tiny fraction, the normal rules of supply and demand mean the share price will tank

- SPACs and recently de-SPACced companies don't have a normal, long term institutional shareholder base.

- The risk factors in the S-4 are grimly amusing, the only time I've professionally seen ones as extreme were in relation to Russian equity offerings.

You are incorrect in your first statement. The money can be accessed immediately with board approval. Who do you think controls the board?

What will happen to the share price is speculation.

Losses aren't unusual. Take a look at how long it took Amazon and Facebook to become profitable.

Trump is sitting on a potential goldmine .

[dobbo_]

LF5335 said:

Take me to task if it does go ahead, I’ll be happy for you and others to have a go, because at least a criminal trial has started.

How’s that for a quid pro quo?

Nobody wants a quid pro quo.

You've said that you don't have time to read the detail information about the trial, and you might be right. Maybe it won't go ahead on that exact date.

If you are right, good for you but it doesn't change the bigger picture.

As I said before, I personally share this information because it helps me to understand, just exactly the situation that Trump is in.

I genuinely hope that he avails himself of every single possible legal avenue to defend himself, even if that means delaying the trial further and further - because in doing so, his loss will make it so much harder for him to argue against.

The charges he faces now and not small or meaningless. Many of them carry years or decades in prison as a potential consequence. This is so far away from anything that's happened before to Trump.

So yes, absolutely. He should use every single part of the law to try to defend himself, that is his right, and it's the right that he wants to take away from his enemies.

[dobbo_]

satans worm said:

For those who say he wont get away with it, whilst i hope its true and justice will prevail, i can see the following outs for Trump (note the only law knowledge i have is from John Grishman novels )

Snipped the stuff about juries for brevity.

Some of what you hypothesise could happen.

But the court system here and in the US is made up of lifetimes of experience - experience that will be used in preventing precisely these kind of situations.

Now consider the fact that you have a former president and current candidate for president on trial. And consider how that will influence the process, and how carefully it is approached by the court and the prosecution.

So yes I guess possibly some rogue juror could create a problem, but to me this whole thing is emblematic of the reason these trials have taken as long as they have in the first place - because the pressure to have it absolutely watertight nailed on and slam dunk is massive.