Iran - Israel War

[Cheib]

skwdenyer said:

s1962a said:

Iran says it will respond to any attack with severe force. Considering all their toy drones were shot down, what exactly are they going to retaliate with thats going to have the allies worried?

Their hypersonic missiles might be an issue, if they work.

I doubt they have anything more advanced that the Hypersonic missiles Russia have…they’ve been shot down when fired at Ukraine. I assume by Patriot.

s1962a said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13312873/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2...

So it looks like Iran might be getting help from Russia, which could explain why they don't seem to be backing down.

Ukraine has been able to hit S 400 battery’s on Crimea and hit targets under their cover so I would think Israel could too.

[skwdenyer]

ukwill said:

isaldiri said:

J4CKO said:

Netanyahu used to seem fairly measured and reasonable based on my limited knowledge.....

Exactly when did Netanyahu seem 'fairly measured and reasonable' btw over his career to you?

When he was inciting violence against Rabin prior to the latter being assassinated? Getting into trouble with corruption related investigations in his first term? Undermining the agreed Oslo peace negotiations and process at every turn if possible? Actively helping Hamas to ensure that palestinian support remained divided so he could flaunt the excuses to push back any reasonable negotiation for their own state? Getting into all many of shenanigans to avoid even more corruption related investigations in his later terms...? Or do you need more examples.....

He's had terrorists on his doorstep chucking rockets at the population he's in charge of for quite some time. Not too many people would remain fairly measured and reasonable in similar situations. Hamas took power and murdered their own opposition with gay abandon over the next several years - they do that to their own people! It was only relatively recently they had to slightly "westernise" their charter to remove the "we're definitely going to kill lots of jews" narrative that has been their entire grift all along. Tens of billions of dollars have flooded into Palestine over the past few decades. Subsequently, Haniyeh and his cronies are billionaires and live the opulent life in Qatar whilst ordinary Palestinians have seen no real change. Make it make sense.

You’ve rather got the timeline muddled. Those freedom fighters / terrorists got into power thanks to the deliberate actions of Netanyahu & co. They’ve remained well-funded, despite the Palestinian Authority trying to reign them in, thanks to Netanyahu & co (the PA applied sanctions, so Netanyahu ensured sanctions-busting cash got waived through the Israel-Gaza border even when basic staples weren’t being allowed).

The rockets were what Netanyahu wanted.

[J4CKO]

isaldiri said:

J4CKO said:

Netanyahu used to seem fairly measured and reasonable based on my limited knowledge.....

Exactly when did Netanyahu seem 'fairly measured and reasonable' btw over his career to you?

When he was inciting violence against Rabin prior to the latter being assassinated? Getting into trouble with corruption related investigations in his first term? Undermining the agreed Oslo peace negotiations and process at every turn if possible? Actively helping Hamas to ensure that palestinian support remained divided so he could flaunt the excuses to push back any reasonable negotiation for their own state? Getting into all many of shenanigans to avoid even more corruption related investigations in his later terms...? Or do you need more examples.....

See the "Limited Knowledge" bit !

Thanks for the info,

[skwdenyer]

Cheib said:

skwdenyer said:

s1962a said:

Iran says it will respond to any attack with severe force. Considering all their toy drones were shot down, what exactly are they going to retaliate with thats going to have the allies worried?

Their hypersonic missiles might be an issue, if they work.

I doubt they have anything more advanced that the Hypersonic missiles Russia have…they’ve been shot down when fired at Ukraine. I assume by Patriot.

s1962a said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13312873/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2...

So it looks like Iran might be getting help from Russia, which could explain why they don't seem to be backing down.

Ukraine has been able to hit S 400 battery’s on Crimea and hit targets under their cover so I would think Israel could too.

Patriot has indeed shot down Russian hypersonic missiles. How many they’ve shot down, as a percentage of those fired, I do not know.

Iron Dome is good. It is reckoned to be weak against drones, however, and is AFAIK untested against hypersonics.

[ukwill]

Clearly Bibi is the room with you now

I’ll leave you to continue totally ignoring the part the “freedom fighters” of Hamas & Islamic Jihad have played throughout this debacle, from the days of the Muslim brotherhood (also classified as terrorists by the very Jewish next-door country, Egypt) - way before Qatari money was brought under Israel/UN control.

If Khomeini were still around he’d no doubt be very much enjoying all this.

[skwdenyer]

ukwill said:

Clearly Bibi is the room with you now

I’ll leave you to continue totally ignoring the part the “freedom fighters” of Hamas & Islamic Jihad have played throughout this debacle, from the days of the Muslim brotherhood (also classified as terrorists by the very Jewish next-door country, Egypt) - way before Qatari money was brought under Israel/UN control.

If Khomeini were still around he’d no doubt be very much enjoying all this.

Of course they’ve played their part. But without Netanyahu, they wouldn’t have even got as far as power.

[W12GT]

Cheib said:

skwdenyer said:

s1962a said:

Iran says it will respond to any attack with severe force. Considering all their toy drones were shot down, what exactly are they going to retaliate with thats going to have the allies worried?

Their hypersonic missiles might be an issue, if they work.

I doubt they have anything more advanced that the Hypersonic missiles Russia have…they’ve been shot down when fired at Ukraine. I assume by Patriot.

s1962a said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13312873/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2...

So it looks like Iran might be getting help from Russia, which could explain why they don't seem to be backing down.

Ukraine has been able to hit S 400 battery’s on Crimea and hit targets under their cover so I would think Israel could too.

Have a look at this - anyone who knows anything about weapons will tell you this missile is in no way in the ‘toy’ category.

https://news.sky.com/story/seeing-iranian-missile-...

[isaldiri]

sherbertdip said:

isaldiri said:

RichFN2 said:

Iranian ballistic missile shot down over the dead sea, I dread to think of the damage a number of these could cause.

Rockets and military kit isn't my area at all so I'm quite curious about that pic - By the time the business end of a ballistic missile ie the warhead is close to it's target (which I presume the dead sea would be close to any Israeli target), why would so much of the main missile sections that presumably would make up the discarded early flight rocket stages be present as debris after shooting one down......?

If the missile is single stage and fixed warhead (the simple type) then the whole lot will come back down, e.g German V2

Only if you have multi stage and detachable warhead (the complex type) will there be discrete components.

Ballistic does not necessarily mean it goes outside the atmosphere, it's just a way of describing its trajectory and is not powered throughout its flight.

Throwing a stone is a ballistic trajectory.

Sorry - just coming back to this again. That missile (plus the other one with Hagari today is being claimed to be an Emad iranian missile. Reading a bit more that seems to have a separating warhead design being based on the earlier shahab-3 which had the same. How would the liquid fuel section of the missile (even as a single stage rocket) end up so close to the intended target area of Israel...? Plus it's not obviously showing any kind of shrapnel type damage that one would have thought an intercepted missile would be showing?

[hidetheelephants]

Assuming it's sophisticated enough to have a separate warhead carrier the missile body will end up not that far from the target; ballistics innit.

[Cheib]

W12GT said:

Cheib said:

skwdenyer said:

s1962a said:

Iran says it will respond to any attack with severe force. Considering all their toy drones were shot down, what exactly are they going to retaliate with thats going to have the allies worried?

Their hypersonic missiles might be an issue, if they work.

I doubt they have anything more advanced that the Hypersonic missiles Russia have…they’ve been shot down when fired at Ukraine. I assume by Patriot.

s1962a said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13312873/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2...

So it looks like Iran might be getting help from Russia, which could explain why they don't seem to be backing down.

Ukraine has been able to hit S 400 battery’s on Crimea and hit targets under their cover so I would think Israel could too.

Have a look at this - anyone who knows anything about weapons will tell you this missile is in no way in the ‘toy’ category.

https://news.sky.com/story/seeing-iranian-missile-...

That is obviously a missile that would create huge damage were it to hit its target. Whether it is sophisticated enough to trouble Patriot and the other elements of Israel’s air defences I have no idea. Suspect not given the photographic evidence.

The Hypersonic missiles that Russia and China have been developing are from what I have read a reaction to the superior air defences that NATO countries have. Until Russia used some of them in Ukraine it wasn’t clear whether Patriot would be able to shoot them down.

[J4CKO]

W12GT said:

Cheib said:

skwdenyer said:

s1962a said:

Iran says it will respond to any attack with severe force. Considering all their toy drones were shot down, what exactly are they going to retaliate with thats going to have the allies worried?

Their hypersonic missiles might be an issue, if they work.

I doubt they have anything more advanced that the Hypersonic missiles Russia have…they’ve been shot down when fired at Ukraine. I assume by Patriot.

s1962a said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13312873/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2...

So it looks like Iran might be getting help from Russia, which could explain why they don't seem to be backing down.

Ukraine has been able to hit S 400 battery’s on Crimea and hit targets under their cover so I would think Israel could too.

Have a look at this - anyone who knows anything about weapons will tell you this missile is in no way in the ‘toy’ category.

https://news.sky.com/story/seeing-iranian-missile-...

Yeah, they look pretty serious.

Seems that the air defence was the key thing and it was a pretty vicious attack with the intention of causing a lot of death and destruction.

But, as ever the Israelis as having to have a go back, I can sort of see their point but its yet more death and destruction, ruined lives of people who have nothing to do with it.

Wouldnt it be better to say,

"You know we can fk you up, you saw what we did to your attempt and can do that every time, are you able to defend like that ? Probably not, so as no real harm was done, in the name of avoiding unnecessary destruction and escalation you get a pass this time but not next time, the merest hint of an attack then its party time, understood ?"

[e-honda]

J4CKO said:

Yeah, they look pretty serious.

Seems that the air defence was the key thing and it was a pretty vicious attack with the intention of causing a lot of death and destruction.

But, as ever the Israelis as having to have a go back, I can sort of see their point but its yet more death and destruction, ruined lives of people who have nothing to do with it.

Wouldnt it be better to say,

"You know we can fk you up, you saw what we did to your attempt and can do that every time, are you able to defend like that ? Probably not, so as no real harm was done, in the name of avoiding unnecessary destruction and escalation you get a pass this time but not next time, the merest hint of an attack then its party time, understood ?"

It's kind of hard to tell.
It's not like air defenses are a secret no one was expecting so they knew the majority of what they sent would get stopped, so it seems possible that give or take a little bit the end result was the expected outcome.
So basically they now know roughly what it takes to overwhelm the Israeli air defenses and what extent UK, US and others are prepared to get involved.

[s1962a]

https://youtu.be/NgeLRtpC2WI


Jon Stewart's take on it

[isaldiri]

Cheib said:

That is obviously a missile that would create huge damage were it to hit its target.

WIthout seeing or knowing what size or type of warhead being used, why or how would the fuel section of a missile make it 'obviously' one that would create 'huge damage'....?

[skwdenyer]

isaldiri said:

Cheib said:

That is obviously a missile that would create huge damage were it to hit its target.

WIthout seeing or knowing what size or type of warhead being used, why or how would the fuel section of a missile make it 'obviously' one that would create 'huge damage'....?

Because the size of warhead needed to require that size of missile is about the mass of a small car?

[isaldiri]

skwdenyer said:

Because the size of warhead needed to require that size of missile is about the mass of a small car?

depends what range it's being fired over as you can chuck a small warhead a lot further....... or the propellant being used isn't that advanced... or... well.... rather a lot of other reasons I'd have thought as compared to just looking at a large fuel stage of a rocket and assuming it must therefore have a massive warhead.

[otolith]

isaldiri said:

skwdenyer said:

Because the size of warhead needed to require that size of missile is about the mass of a small car?

depends what range it's being fired over as you can chuck a small warhead a lot further....... or the propellant being used isn't that advanced... or... well.... rather a lot of other reasons I'd have thought as compared to just looking at a large fuel stage of a rocket and assuming it must therefore have a massive warhead.

Specs of those missiles here;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_(missile)

[skwdenyer]

isaldiri said:

skwdenyer said:

Because the size of warhead needed to require that size of missile is about the mass of a small car?

depends what range it's being fired over as you can chuck a small warhead a lot further....... or the propellant being used isn't that advanced... or... well.... rather a lot of other reasons I'd have thought as compared to just looking at a large fuel stage of a rocket and assuming it must therefore have a massive warhead.

The point is fair in isolation. However the capabilities of that missile are fairly well-known.

Tangentially, it is also worth noting reports that the US shot down more of these missiles than the Israelis per https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/17/us-nav... and other sources. This is important in a wider defence context, since the interceptors are the only line of defence against Russian or Chinese ballistic missiles (systems like DragonFire aren’t anywhere near capable enough yet). Incidentally, it is a shame the UK doesn’t have any SM-3 capability…

The Iranian attack has rather usefully validated the US’ all-in strategy on SM-3. It has shown Russia and China that it works (at least against these targets). The point won’t be lost on Israel that they’re indeed still vulnerable to these weapons without direct US support.

From the Iranian side, they’ve just carried out a very large live-fire exercise with the enemy disclosing their defensive capabilities. If they have well-placed HUMINT sources and/or decent analysts then they’ll now know how close they came to saturating that capability.

Meanwhile Netanyahu has another live bogeyman with which to support his hard-man persona.

All in all, oddly, everyone wins from this encounter

[LivLL]

Still boggles my mind that these can travel so fast yet still intercept and destroy missiles also travelling at vast speeds, along with being capable of knocking down Sats in low earth orbit and threats outside earths atmosphere.

Just been reading up on the Israeli Hetz 3 which is also American funded. The Germans are buying those for missile defense against Russian attacks and will be operational next year.

[Blackpuddin]

s1962a said:

https://youtu.be/NgeLRtpC2WI


Jon Stewart's take on it

That guy is brilliant.