It's BAD, it's STILL very bad REPRISE thread (13 months on)

[Shadytree]

When I started the "It's BAD, it's VERY VERY BAD - The be very afraid thread!" way back in November 2008. I painted a miserable picture of the current state of our economy from my perspective and the misery that lie ahead that so many were in denial of.
Back then the media was hoping to see the so called 'green shoots' by spring 2010, but alas we have now hit February and i'm still as bearish as hell on our outlook. The Government and Media are spinning that we are now heading out of the recession and things will start to improve. January house prices fell again. I don't think we will have a double dip, but we shall be trundling along the bottom for a fair while yet.
Personally speaking I recon we will not see any concrete signs of the UK Economy improving and growing until spring 2011 spring 2012 spring 2013 spring 2014.

Sorry, i'll get back into my bunker now.

Edited by Shadytree on Saturday 27th August 11:21

[singlecoil]

I wonder if we will ever see it. There's simply too many people all over the world chasing too little money.

[Alex]

Cameron is already back-tracking on the Tories promise of "swingeing cuts" as a soon as they are elected.

Public spending has more than doubled since 1997 and services have not noticeably improved. So, I say slash spending by half immediately.

[G_T]

Out of curiosity why Spring 2011? What is the empirical or logical basis of this?

Why not Autumn or perhaps mid-summer? Also how do you define the term, "green shoots of recovery"?

I don't mean to be awkward but I was led to believe economists speculate recovery which is akin to guesswork. How you can then go on to say "I told you so" and it will be "spring 2011" surely requires some form of explanation?

There's an old saying, "there are only two types of men who can tell the future. If they're wrong they're liars and if they're correct then they're lucky liars".

Just curious.

[Spiritual_Beggar]

Guam said:

I Concur I think we have about two years of bouncing along the bottom still to go before we finally start to pull out, mainly because until the next Government gets SERIOUSLY business friendly and climbs into public expenditure with a vengeance we will NOT get significant growth.

Will be interesting to see whether Cameron gets this

I think you're right Guam.

Any serious action will not be taken until after the Election....so we aren't going to see too much change until then.


I sometimes hear good things from Cameron, and the Tories. But then I'll hear other things that make me think he just doesn't have the balls to take the action that is needed.


Personally, if I could hand pick anyone to run our economy, it would be Vince Cable. The guy knows what he is talking about. I think he'd probabl be the best solution....but that is highly unlikely to happen, and I'm not sure the Lib's policies on other aspects of UK governance are in tune with my ideas, but that is mainly because we don't hear that much from them at the moment (at least, media coverage is very slim).

[jshell]

My local property agent in Edinburgh mailed out a report showing that only 2 out of 14 agents/developers are predicting house price growth for this year. The other 12 predicted a range between 0% and 10% price falls....with few at the 0% end.

I believe them in that there'll be no growth. Commercial property is sliding too!

[Shadytree]

G_T said:

Out of curiosity why Spring 2011? What is the empirical or logical basis of this?

Why not Autumn or perhaps mid-summer? Also how do you define the term, "green shoots of recovery"?

I don't mean to be awkward but I was led to believe economists speculate recovery which is akin to guesswork. How you can then go on to say "I told you so" and it will be "spring 2011" surely requires some form of explanation?

There's an old saying, "there are only two types of men who can tell the future. If they're wrong they're liars and if they're correct then they're lucky liars".

Just curious.

Yes, bang on guess work with a tinge of optimism.

Edited by Shadytree on Monday 1st February 14:03

[G_T]

I guess if you could predict the economy you'd make a killing.

Oh well. We're all owned by China now anyway. Better just make the most of it.

[Tangent Police]

Alex said:

Cameron is already back-tracking on the Tories promise of "swingeing cuts" as a soon as they are elected.

He is trying to be all things to all men and have multiple lines in the sand.

THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE

[Balmoral Green]

For me, it's getting worse. Managed to see the last 18 months with ups & downs, some of the ups were pretty good actually, the downs not too bad. But for the last five months, it's been all downs, worse than ever.

[s3fella]

We WOULD have been out of recession by now, but the "doom and gloom" thread got so big and involved so many of us, it actually affected the economic output of the UK, so we are still screwed. Oh, and starting this one has set us back another 3 months, so cheers!

[Bing o]

musclecarmad said:

I think the polls will continue to narrow and labour may get in again the way things are going

This will spook the markets, they will do fk all to help get our finances under control our credit rating will be downgraded, inflation will go up, rates will go up, there will be fury with labour and the downturn 2 will appear on bbc websites

that's scenario one.

scenario 2 is that the tories get in

they will be much more likely to cut debt by reducing public sector spending which will be a mini recession in itself as teachers/police/council workers etc account for a lot of the income in many towns in england and they in turn will cut spending in shops etc
as public sector wages are cut private sector wages may be frozen or cut again as there will be more people going for the jobs
taxes will also go up in terms of fuel duty, income tax, national insurance, capital gains tax, council tax and therefore people's disposable income will be cut leaving them with less to spend. This again will mean things get bad and the economy will shrink.

that's scenario 2

in both cases rates will be going up by end 2010/mid 2011 which will again squeeze the finances of people. also, in both cases QE will have to stop which means things that are artificially being kept high will no longer have anything to support them

therefore, my argument is that as we come out of recession (ie now) this is the time that it's actually going to be worse for people as they will feel the pain of rate rises (not falls), tax increases (not decreases), qe stopping (not starting) and public sector cuts (not increases)

it's a bit like the stock market being a leading indicator whereas the actual joe public are a lagging indicator
when was the stock market at its lowest? way before this recession ended.
when will the public feel the heat most? way after this recession ended.

The recession hasn't ended, wait until they revise the 0.1% to a "negative growth" <sic> figure...

[ErnestM]

Speaking of Stock Markets...

...hold on tight, it's going to be a wild ride...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35234593

[Shadytree]

I've turned even more bearish than when I started this thread.
We are in the deep deep sh*t, even more than people realise. Unless the UK takes an Irish style hatchet to the public sector pay, by cutting a blanket 20% I can't see a way out at the moment, and to be honest with some sectors paying so low, can you really see the government do that ahead of the election ?
My guesstimate of any signs of growth and sustained recovery have just been pushed back to 2012

Last one out please turn the lights off...

[Bing o]

Shadytree said:

Last one out please turn the lights off...

Actually, by the time GBP falls against the EUR and QE starts again, due to our sale of energy we won't have any lights left to turn off

[Fittster]

Shadytree said:

Unless the UK takes an Irish style hatchet to the public sector pay, by cutting a blanket 20%.

But why take that pain? Iceland look as if they are going to refuse to pay up and the Greeks are going to be bailed out. The population of Ireland look as if they are going to suffer to save the wallets of international investors. Shouldn't bonds have a risk associated with them? Maybe the people who hold the debt should take a hair cut (risk / reward and all that)

[RichardD]

Bing o said:

Shadytree said:

..Unless the UK takes an Irish style hatchet to the public sector pay, by cutting a blanket 20% I can't see a way out at the moment, and to be honest with some sectors paying so low, can you really see the government do that ahead of the election ?
...
Last one out please turn the lights off...

Actually, by the time GBP falls against the EUR and QE starts again, due to our sale of energy we won't have any lights left to turn off

Pound falls as Bank signals QE not over

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/72079...

Savers were dealt a blow after the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, suggested that interest rates could remain at their all-time low well into next year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance...

In a decent society it would happen as you've stated. But with Winky in charge the public sector will be paid with more funny money.

Welcome to new Britian, a low wage Britian after destruction of the GBP through excessive money money printy printy - that will have to export its way to wealth!

Edited by RichardD on Thursday 11th February 08:25

[Andy Zarse]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I concur. I had breakfast yesterday with a director of a plc builders and plumbers merchants. The year's not exactly got off to a flyer. Only selling by using purchasing power to undercut the competition, so very thin margins and credit control remains a major headache. They're continuing to strip costs out of the business, rationalise etc which is good news for us as it gives us lots of work but terribly sad for those concerned.

OTOH, I spoke to a pal last night who's regional director of a national estate agants and he said sales were good locally, but getting property on the books was the problem. If they did they could sell it instantly if it's priced right. But then again he's an estate agent so I'm uncertain whether to believe him or not!

[Bing o]

Guam said:

As indicated above its our collective mindsets that will determine when we exit this

I partially agree, however we haven't even seen the main event yet - massive public sector cuts, continued QE, potential credit downgrade, tax rises, strikes, riots even, and a potential hung parliament.

As the song goes - you ain't seen nothing yet!

[Wacky Racer]

Surely it is better for everyone if house prices stabilised or stayed at zero % inflation. It's all very well bragging in the pub that the house you bought ten years ago for £400,000 is now worth £700,000, but it's all relative,.....you still have to buy another house, unless you stay put, or are trading down, (perhaps due to retirement) then you are a winner.

We need good affordable houses so that young people can get on the first rung of the ladder...the only winners when inflation is high are estate agents....(more commission as a percentage)...and the taxman...(More money from stamp duty)....(What a rip of THAT is)