It's BAD, it's STILL very bad REPRISE thread (13 months on)
Discussion
coyft said:
WhoseGeneration said:
coyft said:
It's still legal to exchange it for gold and it's at a 3 month low.
History.
No challenges to the intended outcome.
find additional means to control it, as they do with all currencies. However i think it makes prudent sense to have
part of your portfolio in either gold coins or bullion, after all central banks do.
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Friday said there is unanimity among officials on the central bank's policy-setting panel over providing more support to the economy if the recovery suffers a serious setback.
"I think everyone on the committee is completely on board with the idea that, you know, if things got really bad, we would try to take other action," he said on CNBC television.
Bullard said he has concerns that the Fed's current policy of promising exceptionally low interest rates for an extended period could have the opposite of its intended effect of stimulating growth.
The Fed promised ultra low rates for a long time to underscore its intention to support the economy as it was battered by a deep financial crisis and painful recession.
But Bullard, repeating comments he made on Thursday, said his research shows the pledge could in fact cause the economy to stall at a point of falling inflation and sluggish growth, mirroring Japan's. Japan for years has struggled to escape from weak or little growth and deflation.
The St. Louis Fed chairman said that with interest rates near zero, the central bank should shift its focus from promising low interest rates to using its printing press to push more credit into the financial system as economic conditions fluctuate."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Feds-Bullard-Fed-wou...
"I think everyone on the committee is completely on board with the idea that, you know, if things got really bad, we would try to take other action," he said on CNBC television.
Bullard said he has concerns that the Fed's current policy of promising exceptionally low interest rates for an extended period could have the opposite of its intended effect of stimulating growth.
The Fed promised ultra low rates for a long time to underscore its intention to support the economy as it was battered by a deep financial crisis and painful recession.
But Bullard, repeating comments he made on Thursday, said his research shows the pledge could in fact cause the economy to stall at a point of falling inflation and sluggish growth, mirroring Japan's. Japan for years has struggled to escape from weak or little growth and deflation.
The St. Louis Fed chairman said that with interest rates near zero, the central bank should shift its focus from promising low interest rates to using its printing press to push more credit into the financial system as economic conditions fluctuate."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Feds-Bullard-Fed-wou...
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Its very sensitive, politically, maybe we need a world war?. There needs to be massive readjustment. Maybe the system is broken?. Maybe a major collective international default?. Clear the debt as it were. What can the creditors do?, they cant chase every single debtor, especially as some of the money has dissapeared. Somewhere on this thread or the House Price thread there was a discussion of banks not lending - not necessarily mortgage lending - and why others are not stepping in to the market if the banks are misjudging risk.
Letter received today said:
Dear TB
We have been reviewing the funding facilities available to businesses...and have concluded that in many cases they are not wholly adequate or well matched to the requirements of (that sector).
Furthermore, there appears to be continuing pressure from the main clearing banks to demand disproportionate levels of security...
In response to this long standing situation ("The Funding Gap") XXXXXXX Asset Management have developed a number of highly attractive alternatives...
Etc.
Yours etc
As it happens my business bank has already been proactive in offering a loan facility, presumably because they know I don't need or want it, so this was a fair punt from XXXXXXX Asset Management plc but it fell on one very small patch of stony ground. I imagine other businesses would avail themselves of the facility if it was actually possible or the terms were indeed more favourable than banks currently offer, when they do offer. We have been reviewing the funding facilities available to businesses...and have concluded that in many cases they are not wholly adequate or well matched to the requirements of (that sector).
Furthermore, there appears to be continuing pressure from the main clearing banks to demand disproportionate levels of security...
In response to this long standing situation ("The Funding Gap") XXXXXXX Asset Management have developed a number of highly attractive alternatives...
Etc.
Yours etc
turbobloke said:
Somewhere on this thread or the House Price thread there was a discussion of banks not lending - not necessarily mortgage lending - and why others are not stepping in to the market if the banks are misjudging risk.
If the "XXXXXXX" denots 'an area of a large city in the southwest', then I;ve been getting these for a good year or two at least. Again, with us, the letter fell on stony ground, since like you, our existing banking arrangements are satisfactory.Letter received today said:
Dear TB
We have been reviewing the funding facilities available to businesses...and have concluded that in many cases they are not wholly adequate or well matched to the requirements of (that sector).
Furthermore, there appears to be continuing pressure from the main clearing banks to demand disproportionate levels of security...
In response to this long standing situation ("The Funding Gap") XXXXXXX Asset Management have developed a number of highly attractive alternatives...
Etc.
Yours etc
As it happens my business bank has already been proactive in offering a loan facility, presumably because they know I don't need or want it, so this was a fair punt from XXXXXXX Asset Management plc but it fell on one very small patch of stony ground. I imagine other businesses would avail themselves of the facility if it was actually possible or the terms were indeed more favourable than banks currently offer, when they do offer. We have been reviewing the funding facilities available to businesses...and have concluded that in many cases they are not wholly adequate or well matched to the requirements of (that sector).
Furthermore, there appears to be continuing pressure from the main clearing banks to demand disproportionate levels of security...
In response to this long standing situation ("The Funding Gap") XXXXXXX Asset Management have developed a number of highly attractive alternatives...
Etc.
Yours etc
I'd be interested to know if that's the case will all recipients - that people who are already considered creditworthy are the main targets - or if they are genuinely looking to do something the banks are not...
Oh, and this again: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE67803F2010080...
On the China/Forex tack, if the Fed has another splurge, where does this leave sterling? Perhaps with more room for QE2? I still think it's a race to the bottom!
Digga said:
...I still think it's a race to the bottom!
Maybe in the short term, but after that it is a race to Mars!Stephen Hawking: mankind must move to outer space within a century
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7935505/S...
telegraph said:
The renowned astrophysicist said he fears mankind is in great danger and its future "must be in space" if it is to survive.
In an interview he said threats to the existence of the human race such as war, resource depletion and overpopulation meant it was at its greater risk ever
...
But he said as long as we remained the only intelligent life in our galaxy and avoided destroying ourselves we should be safe.
Not totally gloomy though, there was some sound advice in there In an interview he said threats to the existence of the human race such as war, resource depletion and overpopulation meant it was at its greater risk ever
...
But he said as long as we remained the only intelligent life in our galaxy and avoided destroying ourselves we should be safe.
!RichardD said:
Digga said:
...I still think it's a race to the bottom!
Maybe in the short term, but after that it is a race to Mars!Stephen Hawking: mankind must move to outer space within a century
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7935505/S...
telegraph said:
The renowned astrophysicist said he fears mankind is in great danger and its future "must be in space" if it is to survive.
In an interview he said threats to the existence of the human race such as war, resource depletion and overpopulation meant it was at its greater risk ever
...
But he said as long as we remained the only intelligent life in our galaxy and avoided destroying ourselves we should be safe.
Not totally gloomy though, there was some sound advice in there In an interview he said threats to the existence of the human race such as war, resource depletion and overpopulation meant it was at its greater risk ever
...
But he said as long as we remained the only intelligent life in our galaxy and avoided destroying ourselves we should be safe.
!
Well not a very healthy picture in the papers.
Market tensions have been simmering for days. They erupted on Tuesday when Japan's yen smashed through resistance against all major currencies, reaching a 15-year peak against the US dollar. The Nikkei index buckled below 9,000 as yen strength pushed Japan's export industry deeper under water.
Yields on 10-year bonds fell to 0.92pc in Japan and record lows of 2.23pc in Germany and 2.88pc in the UK. They hit 2.47pc in the US, a Depression level. Irish spreads ballooned to the highest since the launch of EMU. Greek spreads neared 900 basis points, as if the EU's €110bn bail-out never happened.
"This has been one of the most interesting days in finance ever," said Andrew Roberts, head of credit at RBS. "We are right at the tipping point. Yields are about to collapse even further, equities are about to turn over. The end game approaches, probably in next few weeks."
In the US, the 27pc collapse in existing homes sales in July leaves no doubt that America's property market cannot stand on its own feet without the prop of homebuyer tax credits. "Home sales are in free-fall. These are truly dismal numbers," said Teunis Brosens from ING.
The overhang of unsold homes has jumped from 8.9 months' supply to 12.5, higher than at any point during the Great Recession. Over 20pc of mortgage holders are already in negative equity and home default notices hit 325,000 in July.
The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index showed a plunge in August expectations on Tuesday, with shipments dropping to 7 from 40 two months earlier, and the backlog of orders dropping to -1 from 22. This follows the Philly Fed's crash last week to -7.
Stephen Lewis from Monument Securities said bond yields have dropped further than they did in the "flight to safety" extreme of late 2008, a sign that markets fear that underlying conditions are even worse today than they thought then. "Now they fear the global economy will remain in the mire for decades," he said.
For the Japanese this has become a nightmare. Their V-shaped rebound has been cut off short of its 2008 peak. Growth stalled to just 0.1pc in the second quarter. Unemployment has been rising for four months.
Yet it is their curse to have a currency that strengthens at the wrong time, pushing them deeper into deflation. The Japanese repatriate their foreign wealth in storms, driving up the yen. The dollar-yen rate hit ¥83.6 yesterday, prompting ever warnings from Toyko that intervention nears. Finance minister Yoshihiko Noda said the moves were "disorderly" and posed a threat to stability. "I am watching currencies with great interest," he said.
Goldman Sachs said the yen was now overvalued by 20pc, or two "standard deviations" out of kilter. It was even more over-valued against the dollar in the mid-1990s but that is scarcely relevant. Over 60pc of Japan's rebound in exports has been driven by Asia, and only 13pc by the US. What matters is the yen rate against China's yuan. That has reached a crucifying ¥12.4. The vice grips ever deeper.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose...
Market tensions have been simmering for days. They erupted on Tuesday when Japan's yen smashed through resistance against all major currencies, reaching a 15-year peak against the US dollar. The Nikkei index buckled below 9,000 as yen strength pushed Japan's export industry deeper under water.
Yields on 10-year bonds fell to 0.92pc in Japan and record lows of 2.23pc in Germany and 2.88pc in the UK. They hit 2.47pc in the US, a Depression level. Irish spreads ballooned to the highest since the launch of EMU. Greek spreads neared 900 basis points, as if the EU's €110bn bail-out never happened.
"This has been one of the most interesting days in finance ever," said Andrew Roberts, head of credit at RBS. "We are right at the tipping point. Yields are about to collapse even further, equities are about to turn over. The end game approaches, probably in next few weeks."
In the US, the 27pc collapse in existing homes sales in July leaves no doubt that America's property market cannot stand on its own feet without the prop of homebuyer tax credits. "Home sales are in free-fall. These are truly dismal numbers," said Teunis Brosens from ING.
The overhang of unsold homes has jumped from 8.9 months' supply to 12.5, higher than at any point during the Great Recession. Over 20pc of mortgage holders are already in negative equity and home default notices hit 325,000 in July.
The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index showed a plunge in August expectations on Tuesday, with shipments dropping to 7 from 40 two months earlier, and the backlog of orders dropping to -1 from 22. This follows the Philly Fed's crash last week to -7.
Stephen Lewis from Monument Securities said bond yields have dropped further than they did in the "flight to safety" extreme of late 2008, a sign that markets fear that underlying conditions are even worse today than they thought then. "Now they fear the global economy will remain in the mire for decades," he said.
For the Japanese this has become a nightmare. Their V-shaped rebound has been cut off short of its 2008 peak. Growth stalled to just 0.1pc in the second quarter. Unemployment has been rising for four months.
Yet it is their curse to have a currency that strengthens at the wrong time, pushing them deeper into deflation. The Japanese repatriate their foreign wealth in storms, driving up the yen. The dollar-yen rate hit ¥83.6 yesterday, prompting ever warnings from Toyko that intervention nears. Finance minister Yoshihiko Noda said the moves were "disorderly" and posed a threat to stability. "I am watching currencies with great interest," he said.
Goldman Sachs said the yen was now overvalued by 20pc, or two "standard deviations" out of kilter. It was even more over-valued against the dollar in the mid-1990s but that is scarcely relevant. Over 60pc of Japan's rebound in exports has been driven by Asia, and only 13pc by the US. What matters is the yen rate against China's yuan. That has reached a crucifying ¥12.4. The vice grips ever deeper.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose...
We love a big market correction in October and so everyone will be jittery about that and with very good reason. There simply isn't much to get bullish over.
There is a very significant chance that the US will double dip before Christmas and with only the printing presses remaining as a defensive tool then USD devaluation is a near certainty. Obviously, as China's largest customer and with China invested heavily in US debt and their economy under strong inflationary pressures then the knock on will not be insignificant. And this will filter through to the EU and UK. Almost certainly at about the same time as we begin to realise that Greece have spunked all of Germany's rescue package and expects double the same again along with other countries.
At this point BoE will have no choice but to force rates up to curb imported inflation, mortgage defaults will pick up and property values will fall and we'll get the final game over signals hitting the media way too late.
Then over the next 5 years Ireland will emerge as one of the kings of Europe as they are the only country to have made a real attempt to cut expenditure and go back to living within their means and our entire mainstay of Irish based comedy will collapse as it turns out that we, sitting in our debt riddled homes on our debt riddled sofas, watching our debt riddled TVs are the complete f
kwits of the known Universe.
There is a very significant chance that the US will double dip before Christmas and with only the printing presses remaining as a defensive tool then USD devaluation is a near certainty. Obviously, as China's largest customer and with China invested heavily in US debt and their economy under strong inflationary pressures then the knock on will not be insignificant. And this will filter through to the EU and UK. Almost certainly at about the same time as we begin to realise that Greece have spunked all of Germany's rescue package and expects double the same again along with other countries.
At this point BoE will have no choice but to force rates up to curb imported inflation, mortgage defaults will pick up and property values will fall and we'll get the final game over signals hitting the media way too late.
Then over the next 5 years Ireland will emerge as one of the kings of Europe as they are the only country to have made a real attempt to cut expenditure and go back to living within their means and our entire mainstay of Irish based comedy will collapse as it turns out that we, sitting in our debt riddled homes on our debt riddled sofas, watching our debt riddled TVs are the complete f
kwits of the known Universe. DonkeyApple said:
Then over the next 5 years Ireland will emerge as one of the kings of Europe as they are the only country to have made a real attempt to cut expenditure and go back to living within their means and our entire mainstay of Irish based comedy will collapse as it turns out that we, sitting in our debt riddled homes on our debt riddled sofas, watching our debt riddled TVs are the complete fkwits of the known Universe.
Irish have already proven to be dunces:kwits of the known Universe. "Ireland must now pay more than Greece to borrow.
Dublin has played by the book. It has taken pre-emptive steps to please the markets and the EU. It has done an IMF job without the IMF. Indeed, is has gone further than the IMF would have dared to go.
It has imposed draconian austerity measures. The solidarity of the country has been remarkable. There have no riots, and no terrorist threats.
Yet as of today it is paying 5.48pc to borrow for ten years, or near 8pc in real terms once deflation is factored in. This is crippling and puts the country on an unsustainable debt trajectory if it lasts for long.
Yet Greece is able to borrow from the EU at 5pc and from the IMF at a staggered rate far below that (still too high for the policy to work, but that is another matter). These were the terms of the €110bn joint bail-out.
To add insult to injury Ireland is having SUBSIDIZE Greece to meet its share of the rescue fund."
source
Fittster said:
DonkeyApple said:
Then over the next 5 years Ireland will emerge as one of the kings of Europe as they are the only country to have made a real attempt to cut expenditure and go back to living within their means and our entire mainstay of Irish based comedy will collapse as it turns out that we, sitting in our debt riddled homes on our debt riddled sofas, watching our debt riddled TVs are the complete fkwits of the known Universe.
Irish have already proven to be dunces:kwits of the known Universe. "Ireland must now pay more than Greece to borrow.
Dublin has played by the book. It has taken pre-emptive steps to please the markets and the EU. It has done an IMF job without the IMF. Indeed, is has gone further than the IMF would have dared to go.
It has imposed draconian austerity measures. The solidarity of the country has been remarkable. There have no riots, and no terrorist threats.
Yet as of today it is paying 5.48pc to borrow for ten years, or near 8pc in real terms once deflation is factored in. This is crippling and puts the country on an unsustainable debt trajectory if it lasts for long.
Yet Greece is able to borrow from the EU at 5pc and from the IMF at a staggered rate far below that (still too high for the policy to work, but that is another matter). These were the terms of the €110bn joint bail-out.
To add insult to injury Ireland is having SUBSIDIZE Greece to meet its share of the rescue fund."
source
I risk deviating into another subject but Germany will live to regret bailing out Greece when it and its other chums come bleating for more money from those who haven't f
ked up, and they will. They should have let Greece default, driven it into the sea and set in stone a cold, hard and sobering lesson for all of Europe to see what will become of them if they do not stand up, step up to the plate and start fixing their own problems.Going back to Ireland v Greece, the trouble is, when you think about it in the cold light of day, what does Ireland actually have going for it? It is an uncomfortable question. Historically Ireland has been poor since the dawn of time because it genuinely has nothing of great value and is not place geographically anywhere significant.
The Celtic Tiger was borne out of EU subsidies and an enormous boom in Irish self belief and confidence and trust on the world stage.
By taking the actions that they have they have protected as much as possible the latter positive elements but it will be an enormous uphill struggle to rebuild their economy.
The property aspect alone is massive. Land which had never been worth anything suddenly became valuable for residential building and combined with easy debt the boom was enormous, but Ireland does not have a rapidly growing population, it does nat have huge immigration, it does not have a shortage of land to build upon, in fact the tremendous opposite. The net result, is that in reality, property in Ireland has negligiable value and this is why the debt trapped at the Irish banks will never be repaid and has crippled their banking and business infrastructure.
Ireland is on the massive backfoot in comparison to Greece, and yet, knowing both economies well I would back the people of Ireland any day over the Greeks. The Greeks have already shown their nature, a nature of blaming other people and begging for scraps on the global table. They are the Turks and Byzantines of old and are acting in the same duplicitous way that they have for over 1000 years, whereas the Irish have behaved how we would like to think that we would (but probably wouldn't).
No, definitely Ireland is in a worse place than Greece on paper but back the people not the land and your money has to go on the Paddies.
Fittster said:
I'd bet on the Greeks, they will default. In the long term that's the smart move.
Valid point If Greece is outside the EU then it will go back to where it was though. If they can default and we and the EU keep rescueing them and paying off their debts and financing their rediculous state commitments then you are spot on that they will piss themselves laughing.
Fittster said:
I'd bet on the Greeks, they will default. In the long term that's the smart move.
Because it would be better to be the first?Or, having a small population, they might feel that the EU would be more prepared to support them?
I suppose, sun, olives and feta is better than damp, potatoes and Kerrygold, though.
Would be for me anyway.
Then, for either, could lead to much emigration of the young, providing further problems.
WhoseGeneration said:
Fittster said:
I'd bet on the Greeks, they will default. In the long term that's the smart move.
Because it would be better to be the first?Or, having a small population, they might feel that the EU would be more prepared to support them?
I suppose, sun, olives and feta is better than damp, potatoes and Kerrygold, though.
Would be for me anyway.
Then, for either, could lead to much emigration of the young, providing further problems.
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