It's BAD, it's STILL very bad REPRISE thread (13 months on)
Discussion
A summary of the story so far from Capital Economics.
The UK economy is 16% smaller than it would have been had the pre-crisis growth trend continued. Spending in pubs and restaurants is down 10% from the peak, the number of restaurants has fallen 5%. The shop vacancy rate has jumped from 4% to 14% in five years while airport passengers are down 9%. The number of people using food banks has grown from 25,000 to 350,000 in the last four years.
The UK economy is 16% smaller than it would have been had the pre-crisis growth trend continued. Spending in pubs and restaurants is down 10% from the peak, the number of restaurants has fallen 5%. The shop vacancy rate has jumped from 4% to 14% in five years while airport passengers are down 9%. The number of people using food banks has grown from 25,000 to 350,000 in the last four years.
turbobloke said:
A summary of the story so far from Capital Economics.
The UK economy is 16% smaller than it would have been had the pre-crisis growth trend continued. Spending in pubs and restaurants is down 10% from the peak, the number of restaurants has fallen 5%. The shop vacancy rate has jumped from 4% to 14% in five years while airport passengers are down 9%. The number of people using food banks has grown from 25,000 to 350,000 in the last four years.
Imo the pre-crisis growth rate was never going to continue because it wasn't based on sustainable factors, easy credit and ever appreciating houses aren't the magic formula for perpetual growth.The UK economy is 16% smaller than it would have been had the pre-crisis growth trend continued. Spending in pubs and restaurants is down 10% from the peak, the number of restaurants has fallen 5%. The shop vacancy rate has jumped from 4% to 14% in five years while airport passengers are down 9%. The number of people using food banks has grown from 25,000 to 350,000 in the last four years.
RYH64E said:
turbobloke said:
A summary of the story so far from Capital Economics.
The UK economy is 16% smaller than it would have been had the pre-crisis growth trend continued. Spending in pubs and restaurants is down 10% from the peak, the number of restaurants has fallen 5%. The shop vacancy rate has jumped from 4% to 14% in five years while airport passengers are down 9%. The number of people using food banks has grown from 25,000 to 350,000 in the last four years.
Imo the pre-crisis growth rate was never going to continue because it wasn't based on sustainable factors, easy credit and ever appreciating houses aren't the magic formula for perpetual growth.The UK economy is 16% smaller than it would have been had the pre-crisis growth trend continued. Spending in pubs and restaurants is down 10% from the peak, the number of restaurants has fallen 5%. The shop vacancy rate has jumped from 4% to 14% in five years while airport passengers are down 9%. The number of people using food banks has grown from 25,000 to 350,000 in the last four years.
Guam said:
The ONLY way out of this is to give people more disposable income, there is no other way that can work long term.
The only way out of this is by making more stuff, selling more stuff, employing more people and paying them a decent wage. I don't care if the stuff we make is a manufactured product or a service (although i think we desperately need more manufacturing), but whatever is is we need more of it. Tax increases or tax cuts, and public spending are all just moving the same money around when we actually need to make (not borrow) more money from somewhere.turbobloke said:
That's an amazing claim! Gordon abolished boom and bust!! It was one man's fault but the name was Fred!!! Remember?!!!!
Actually I think you will find it was all Thatcher's fault*, although Fred certainly didn't help anyone but himself.- Only joking about Thatcher, I'm a fan, not joking about Fred though.
RYH64E said:
Guam said:
The ONLY way out of this is to give people more disposable income, there is no other way that can work long term.
The only way out of this is by making more stuff, selling more stuff, employing more people and paying them a decent wage. I don't care if the stuff we make is a manufactured product or a service (although i think we desperately need more manufacturing), but whatever is is we need more of it. Tax increases or tax cuts, and public spending are all just moving the same money around when we actually need to make (not borrow) more money from somewhere.
t needs to happen here in order for us to earn our way out of the crisis, then government needs to back the fk out of the way of enterprise and commerce and it needs to ringfence very clear and favourable conditions to enable both start-up entrepreneurs and established business alike plan their risk and commot accordingly.speedy_thrills said:
Though I suppose you could argue that increasing wages will allow people to service more low interest debt leaving you back at square one if debt remains cheap.
Well there were always two sides to the debt bubble; the feckless individuals and the irresponsible lenders, all watched over by a 'regulator' whose toothlessness was matched only by their gormlessness.Digga said:
If, putting it very crudely, more st needs to happen here in order for us to earn our way out of the crisis, then government needs to back the fk out of the way of enterprise and commerce and it needs to ringfence very clear and favourable conditions to enable both start-up entrepreneurs and established business alike plan their risk and commot accordingly.
I agree. Government needs to be reminded what its purpose is. It is not there to raise taxes simply to pay for itself. MP's are not there to vote for their own pay rises.We need to have a root and branch review, cradle to grave of what the country does, how it does it and for whom (IMHO).
GuinnessMK said:
Digga said:
If, putting it very crudely, more st needs to happen here in order for us to earn our way out of the crisis, then government needs to back the fk out of the way of enterprise and commerce and it needs to ringfence very clear and favourable conditions to enable both start-up entrepreneurs and established business alike plan their risk and commot accordingly.
I agree. Government needs to be reminded what its purpose is. It is not there to raise taxes simply to pay for itself. MP's are not there to vote for their own pay rises.We need to have a root and branch review, cradle to grave of what the country does, how it does it and for whom (IMHO).
Guam said:
Well yes, but there has to be demand in tne economy, if people havent got disposable income then demand is going to be weak, so making stuff to fill warehouses isnt going to achieve very much <except ultimate insolvency>.
What about selling stuff to other countries? Works for me.Edited to add: It doesn't even have to be exports, UK companies have plenty of money to spend and it would be far better if they spent it with other UK companies rather than overseas. There's a good opportunity for UK manufacturing companies to replace overseas suppliers selling into the Uk market.
Edited by RYH64E on Wednesday 8th May 12:29
Digga said:
...then government needs to back the fk out of the way of enterprise and commerce...
We virtually kept the country afloat for a decade by deregulating banking and finance, maybe by one step too far, but that's another argument. k out of the way of enterprise and commerce...That deregulation needs to be applied to industry and business. Now, today. From beauticians to Jaguar Cars, deregulate.
A lid on H&S, HR, green taxes, council nonsense, fuel prices, endless mindless paperwork created by the non-jobbers, every obstacle put in the way of a business should be looked at, and if not essential, removed. If we need to leave the EU to get deregulated and competitive again, so be it - remember we are net importers from the EU - they need us more than we need them.
Whining about banks not lending to companies who cannot compete due to being hamstrung by ridiculous over-regulation isn't the answer.
Cheaper fuel for UK goods transportation, easier operation and expansion, less of the irrelevant eco crap that is completely negated by having China on the same planet, and a more flexible approach to everything - power generation through employment law through planning through company taxation etc etc. Chuck in a bit of light touch protectionism for things like UK components manufacturers supplying UK industry and some investment in housebuilding and we might get somewhere. Eventually to the point where start-up lending might actually be viable rather than a govt-encouraged gamble.
The clue's in the name. Civil servants.
andy43 said:
......endless mindless paperwork created by the non-jobbers.....
The clue's in the name. Civil servants.
I see this as the biggest worry - How long until the non-jobbers, the ones that add nothing to the economy, only take from it, outnumber those who do make genuine contributions? You can bet that a large proportion of 'non-jobbers' will always vote for whoever protects them. Look at some of Europhiles - Clegg for example - he's made a personal fortune of £2.5 Million from the EU. How many more in government, even the media are in the trough? All of these people shape the news and policies - they all seem to in it for themselves, not 'The people'The clue's in the name. Civil servants.
I fear we are too far gone to the country around - the swelled ranks of non-jobbers and greed from the top will keep suckling until the well is dry - and then they'll blame anything but themselves as to why it got to that state.
I read this and felt sick....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/10021...
Guam said:
Fine if you are an export industry but if you are a UK Consumer oriented company then disposable income is what is needed. The current value of the pound whilst helping exporters reams my margins as our raw material is imported from the US.
We import and export, on balance I'd prefer a strong pound so my material costs were lower but provided the GBP doesn't fall below USD 1.50 I'm happy enough, 1.60 would be better as we cost at 1.55.Originally we imported finished products, now we import raw materials and manufacture in house, so our exposure to currency fluctuations is reduced and we have more control over product quality and lead times. Sales are up (up 26% 1st quarter YoY), margins are up, taxes paid will be up (Corporation Tax, Employers and Employees NI, and PAYE), and I've employed two more people so far this year with an apprentice due to start in July. That's two more people not claiming benefits who now have money to spend in the shops and a school leaver with a job.
What the country needs is more companies doing the same thing but hopefully in a bigger way, making more money, employing more people, paying decent wages, generating more tax income, and spending more money with other UK companies.
chris watton said:
andy43 said:
......endless mindless paperwork created by the non-jobbers.....
The clue's in the name. Civil servants.
I see this as the biggest worry - How long until the non-jobbers, the ones that add nothing to the economy, only take from it, outnumber those who do make genuine contributions? You can bet that a large proportion of 'non-jobbers' will always vote for whoever protects them. Look at some of Europhiles - Clegg for example - he's made a personal fortune of £2.5 Million from the EU. How many more in government, even the media are in the trough? All of these people shape the news and policies - they all seem to in it for themselves, not 'The people'The clue's in the name. Civil servants.
I fear we are too far gone to the country around - the swelled ranks of non-jobbers and greed from the top will keep suckling until the well is dry - and then they'll blame anything but themselves as to why it got to that state.
I read this and felt sick....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/10021...
As for bureacrats, I avoid where possible but do have experience of being part of a "consultation" on (then) future legislation, during which time I encountered nothing to suggest the approach of government was to err towards either light-touch or common sense.
Slightly O/T I wonder how you get one of these non-jobs, like running YouGov?
RYH64E said:
Guam said:
Fine if you are an export industry but if you are a UK Consumer oriented company then disposable income is what is needed. The current value of the pound whilst helping exporters reams my margins as our raw material is imported from the US.
We import and export, on balance I'd prefer a strong pound so my material costs were lower but provided the GBP doesn't fall below USD 1.50 I'm happy enough, 1.60 would be better as we cost at 1.55.Originally we imported finished products, now we import raw materials and manufacture in house, so our exposure to currency fluctuations is reduced and we have more control over product quality and lead times. Sales are up (up 26% 1st quarter YoY), margins are up, taxes paid will be up (Corporation Tax, Employers and Employees NI, and PAYE), and I've employed two more people so far this year with an apprentice due to start in July. That's two more people not claiming benefits who now have money to spend in the shops and a school leaver with a job.
What the country needs is more companies doing the same thing but hopefully in a bigger way, making more money, employing more people, paying decent wages, generating more tax income, and spending more money with other UK companies.
I hope the authorities are aware of your crazy make-something-from-scratch idea. It'll never catch on anyway...
andy43 said:
You mean you produce something? Creating wealth from mere raw materials? Manufacture? Here in the UK? <faints>
I hope the authorities are aware of your crazy make-something-from-scratch idea. It'll never catch on anyway...
Not only that, but we can make stuff cheaper than the landed cost from China, and pay staff considerably more than minimum wage, who'd have thought it possible?I hope the authorities are aware of your crazy make-something-from-scratch idea. It'll never catch on anyway...
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