How far will house prices fall? [Volume 3]

How far will house prices fall? [Volume 3]

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Digga

40,373 posts

284 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

243 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all

spikeyhead

17,363 posts

198 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
There's a lot of trees in those countries and far less clay for making bricks. No idea why the mortgage companies don't like timber framed houses so much and I think it should be irrelavent to the planners.

fido

16,823 posts

256 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
"because they can’t be sold."
?
negative equity? mind you in that situation, they can still sell the house and take on a personal loan.

DonkeyApple

55,479 posts

170 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.

Digga

40,373 posts

284 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.

JagLover

42,491 posts

236 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
fido said:
NoelWatson said:
"because they can’t be sold."
?
negative equity? mind you in that situation, they can still sell the house and take on a personal loan.
More likely "because they can't be sold at the inflated value the owners put on them". Didn't a recent survey show that asking prices are still rising.

spikeyhead

17,363 posts

198 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.
I used to drink in a timber farmed pub. Built in 1346 IIRC. There's a lot of unnecessary fear of wooden houses in the UK.

Digga

40,373 posts

284 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
spikeyhead said:
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.
I used to drink in a timber farmed pub. Built in 1346 IIRC. There's a lot of unnecessary fear of wooden houses in the UK.
Quite so.

I'd also guess those who supply conventional building products are big enough and ugly enough to enjoy access to considerable politcal power too.

Deva Link

26,934 posts

246 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.
I don't think the typical modern N.American or Scandinavian home is oak framed.

I've watched homes being built in the US and they don't half look flimsy! The maintenance costs must surely be much higher - asphalt shingle roofs that they commonly use only last 20years.

Digga

40,373 posts

284 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.
I don't think the typical modern N.American or Scandinavian home is oak framed.

I've watched homes being built in the US and they don't half look flimsy! The maintenance costs must surely be much higher - asphalt shingle roofs that they commonly use only last 20years.
Listen, I once bought a Barratt house and I'm not sure that place would be up to much after 20 years.

Granted, the bricks 'n' mortar part of it was fine - had to be to get past building regs - but the rest was thrown together like a drunk's supper.

paulrockliffe

15,727 posts

228 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Are there any sensible alternatives to brick from a sound insulation point of view? All these prefab things are fine, but if they're like every house I've been in built in the last 10 years, I'd rather not be able to hear someone snoring on the other side of the house!

spikeyhead

17,363 posts

198 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
paulrockliffe said:
Are there any sensible alternatives to brick from a sound insulation point of view? All these prefab things are fine, but if they're like every house I've been in built in the last 10 years, I'd rather not be able to hear someone snoring on the other side of the house!
Try living in a modern Dutch terraced house. The bloke next door but one flushes the toilet at 6:40am every weekday morning. Granted, it's only about 18ft away, but you can imagine how noisy it is in a row of terraces like that.

DonkeyApple

55,479 posts

170 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
spikeyhead said:
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.
I used to drink in a timber farmed pub. Built in 1346 IIRC. There's a lot of unnecessary fear of wooden houses in the UK.
Quite so.

I'd also guess those who supply conventional building products are big enough and ugly enough to enjoy access to considerable politcal power too.
Try getting a conventional mortgage for some of these real flat pack homes.

The problem is not the quality of the homes but the fact that the mortgage market is standardised and the staff operate off a crib sheet.

Because 'bricks' are so ingrained in the UK culture I suspect you will have an uphill struggle to get similar mortgage terms on some of these modern, very cheap, DIY homes.

Banks don't even want to lend on bluechip brick resi let alone something more esoteric.

loafer123

15,454 posts

216 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
spikeyhead said:
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
Deva Link said:
Digga said:
I don't think prices are right, but neither is supply. It's a curious position, in the midst of what seems to be a rout on the housing market, but we need lower prices and more supply (of the right stuff in the right areas). Perhaps builders need to build to enable the market to drop?
I suppose that with the escalating prices of raw materials there must be an issue that there's little or no money in house building at the bottom end of the market.
A lot of that is down to planning and also finance.

There is no reason why we in the UK have to live inside brick & mortar constructions. The USA, Cananda and Scandinavian countires - just for example - all use a natural, sustainable construction (timber) which is faster and cheaper to erect. In fact much of this type of home can be pre-fabriacted off site. (Ever seen one of those out-of-otwn McDonald's reastaurants built?)

Apparently, planning authorities and mortgage companies get fussy about the details of said constructions.
You would require a different kind of mortgage where the long term debt was on the land but a shorter term loan was issued alonside for the structure.

Or the land owner parcels the land up and offers leases (financed monthly) on it and the buyer of the lease builds a flat pack there using a 10/15 yr mortgage.
Why?

Two of my neighbours houses are oak framed, timbered properties. Both were built in 1910 (they served as the officers mess during Great War when Cannock Chase was a very large army base) and both are still standing. No concrete cancer, no frost damage to brickwork, no cracks or faults.
I used to drink in a timber farmed pub. Built in 1346 IIRC. There's a lot of unnecessary fear of wooden houses in the UK.
Quite so.

I'd also guess those who supply conventional building products are big enough and ugly enough to enjoy access to considerable politcal power too.
Try getting a conventional mortgage for some of these real flat pack homes.

The problem is not the quality of the homes but the fact that the mortgage market is standardised and the staff operate off a crib sheet.

Because 'bricks' are so ingrained in the UK culture I suspect you will have an uphill struggle to get similar mortgage terms on some of these modern, very cheap, DIY homes.

Banks don't even want to lend on bluechip brick resi let alone something more esoteric.
The reason for problems with lending on timber framed construction was the rot issues with 1970s softwood timber framed houses.

In reality, there was nothing wrong with the theory, it was the implementation, but as a result of the issues then, alot of mortgage companies stopped lending on softwood framed houses.

Hardwood is alot easier, even now.

ringram

14,700 posts

249 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Most NZ houses are wood. Maintenance means swapping coverboards frequently, also insulation is pretty bad.
Terrace and town houses are normally brick because of the noise issue. Detached are wood most often.

Personally Id rather have brick.

WhoseGeneration

4,090 posts

208 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
The reason for problems with lending on timber framed construction was the rot issues with 1970s softwood timber framed houses.

In reality, there was nothing wrong with the theory, it was the implementation, but as a result of the issues then, alot of mortgage companies stopped lending on softwood framed houses.

Hardwood is alot easier, even now.
This, I'm old enough to remember the media articles and programmes exposing the problems when the major housebuilders attempted timberframe construction.
Basically down to poor site management and lack of workforce training.
However, there are still concerns about performance when fire occurs.
I do though think that, executed properly, using the correct designs and materials, timberframe has a lot to offer, especially if the UK wants to provide more housing in a short timescale.

Deva Link

26,934 posts

246 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Whatever happened to those villages of Ikea houses that were supposed to be popping up all over the place, and the blocks of pods in London?

WhoseGeneration

4,090 posts

208 months

Monday 1st November 2010
quotequote all
Deva Link said:
Whatever happened to those villages of Ikea houses that were supposed to be popping up all over the place, and the blocks of pods in London?
Was that Prescott's £60K challenge to housebuilders?
Then there was the cost of the land, perhaps conveniently ignored in the original brief.

WhoseGeneration

4,090 posts

208 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
ringram said:
Most NZ houses are wood. Maintenance means swapping coverboards frequently, also insulation is pretty bad.
Terrace and town houses are normally brick because of the noise issue. Detached are wood most often.

Personally Id rather have brick.
You can have a brick skin on a timberframed house in NZ.
Might have to use imported bricks.
As you can also have good insulation, if you specify it on a new build, beyond any codes.
Of course a consideration in NZ is the ever present possibility of earthquakes, such that "lighter" forms of construction can be of advantage, in terms of safety and rebuilding.
Having said that, NZ has had a scandal in recent years, with timber not properly treated, or of standard, used in housebuilding.
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