"Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past"

[Buzz word]

I thought the cold was explained by the bad science 'day after tomorrow' argument?

[Globs]

I knew I was imagining it was -5.5C in my garden, I'm going out to bask in the warmth now.









I may be some time.

[Jasandjules]

zakelwe said:

I've never claimed this because I don't believe in it. I have no idea where you imagined this from.

Please post link.

Andy

You misunderstand.

I am awaiting proof from you that man is responsible for any alleged Global Warming. Have asked a few times now, still waiting.

[turbobloke]

zakelwe said:

turbobloke said:

Climate is influenced over decadal timescales predominantly by solar activity

Show me proof of this?

Solar activity has increased in the last year and temps have gone down as the oceans have cooled. So how can you claim this?

Andy

Read posts for understanding and don't ignore the bits that hammer your beliefs. You've had this explained to you several times on the other threads.

The lag time from solar eruptivity to climate is typically 4 to 8 years. In the data representation below aa index measures solar wind (eruptivity) and the anomalous state of the troposphere ca 1940 (ENSO) explains the uncorrelated peak. A version of this with the time axis mislabelled featured recently in one of the other threads. Your inability to remember anything much about ENSO phenomena was mentioned then also.



I would suggest you note once again the order of events represented (causality) and the strength of the positive correlation, unlike claimed carbon dioxide forcing which cannot be seen in the data and where the temperature shifts always occur before carbon dioxide levels change (Monnin et al and about five other papers cited in the other threads) which is the wrong way round for cause and effect. The need for smoothing arises due to velocity differentials in the solar wind producing spurious peaks and troughts in unsmoothed versions.

A few posts back I said:

No causality anywhere. The commentary from Mystic Met leaves this point alone so allowing uninformed and gullible propagandised readers to mislead themselves while giving comfort to true believers that their faith in the new religion endures.

It's nothing to do with humans and tax gas.

The Arctic Oscillation is a climate pattern that influences winter weather in the northern hemisphere. It describes the relationship between high pressure in the mid-latitudes and low pressure over the Arctic. When the pressure systems are weak, the difference between them is small, and air from the Arctic flows south, while warmer air seeps north. This is referred to as a negative Arctic Oscillation. Like December 2009, the Arctic Oscillation was negative in early December 2010. Cold air from the Arctic channeled south around a blocking system over Greenland, while Greenland and northern Canada heated up.

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/imagery/view.asp...

Global circulation patterns and particularly blocking events are linked to solar eruptivity via the auroral oval mechanism (Bucha, 1986) which has had a 4 to 8 year lag time in recent decades pointing to the downward discontinuity in 2005. Here's an extract from the paper quoted above with my emphasis added.

In order to prove that meridional flow changes into zonal flow as a result of auroral electrons and bremsstrahlung leading to an increase in temperature and pressure even in the troposphere, the relations between corpuscular (geomagnetic) activity and atmospheric pressure were statistically investigated in the northern hemisphere at the 500 hPa level. Correlation coefficients for daily, monthly and yearly values have confirmed that fluctuations in climate and weather including zonal and meridional circulations, blocking, invasions of arctic air and southern oscillation can be accounted for by the processes in the auroral oval.

It would be a shame if this thread became diverted by zakelwe's selectivity, there's plenty of that in the climate threads. There's enough fodder in the erroneous claims from the impacts side of climate voodoo published by The Independent to make this one a rib tickler in its own right.

[groucho]

zakelwe said:

Now two years of snow and suddenly people forget all the previous mild 8 winters we had.

It has been more than two. I work outside every day of the year, every year, and have been for over thirty years, and I can tell you winters have been getting colder for 4 years at least. Late Swallow and other migrant arrivals in the spring, early ariival of winter visitors like fieldfares and other northern birds. Nature knows!

These winters are here for a while. When the weather affects how much money you have in your pocket you tend to take a keen interest.

[turbobloke]

Throughout the last 150 years the strong positive correlation with order of events correct for causality and three mechanisms in the literature for the solar-to-climate link (irradiance and energy budget, eruptivity and the CRF plus auroral oval mechanisms) accounts for natural climate change, with Mt Pinatubo volcanism seen also. What is not seen is anything to do with human emissions of carbon dioxide.

[R1 Loon]

zakelwe said:

Funnily enough he was actually right. When I was growing up in Manchester in the 1970's we had lots of snow.

I moved to Kent in the late 1990's and had a child 2 years after he wrote that piece. For the first 6 years of living here we had bugger all snow and temps never got much below -3C

Now two years of snow and suddenly people forget all the previous mild 8 winters we had.



A mild winter doesn't impact on the brain though, like a warm but not hot summer. Even the BBQ summer that never happened had a lovely late summer and early autumn period and also a good late spring in May.

It's only when the Daily Mail starts going on about it do people seem to notice what the whether is actually doing

Andy

I grew uo in Manchester in the 70s and we had lots of snow some winters, then 6 or 7 years without any, I know because I got a sledge off Father Christmas when I was about 6 and didn't get to use it until I was 13.

Jasandjules said:

zakelwe said:

Show me proof of this?

We are still awaiting the proof from you dear boy, we've asked rather a lot too. So why not sort that out and we can then just bin these threads.

Here's all the proof you'll ever need.

[zakelwe]

Turbo bloke, you keep showing that graph. It seems like a mantra to you.

From your link it comes from this website

http://bourabai.narod.ru/

Unless you have a real good understanding of Russian I think you just picked it out of thin air. Also it seems to end at 1980 when the satellites first came into being ... not very good for a global temperature relationship with the sun??



Andy

Edited by zakelwe on Friday 17th December 21:45

[Globs]

From the Vostok ice core samples it can be seen there is a 400-800 year lag from temperature to CO2 levels.

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400...



So lets not have any more man made global warming bks from naive feeble minded simpletons please, we all know the score so don't insult our intelligence.

[zakelwe]

Jasandjules said:

zakelwe said:

I've never claimed this because I don't believe in it. I have no idea where you imagined this from.

Please post link.

Andy

You misunderstand.

I am awaiting proof from you that man is responsible for any alleged Global Warming. Have asked a few times now, still waiting.

That is not what me and turbobloke were discussing.

Andy

[zakelwe]

Globs said:

I knew I was imagining it was -5.5C in my garden, I'm going out to bask in the warmth now.









I may be some time.

Levelling out at -5.5C in Kent. Very crispy.

Andy

[zakelwe]

groucho said:

zakelwe said:

Now two years of snow and suddenly people forget all the previous mild 8 winters we had.

It has been more than two. I work outside every day of the year, every year, and have been for over thirty years, and I can tell you winters have been getting colder for 4 years at least. Late Swallow and other migrant arrivals in the spring, early ariival of winter visitors like fieldfares and other northern birds. Nature knows!

These winters are here for a while. When the weather affects how much money you have in your pocket you tend to take a keen interest.

You could well be right, though I don't recall 2008 and 2007 winters being that cold perhaps my memory has faded with this cold last 2.
Andy

[turbobloke]

zakelwe said:

Now two years of snow and suddenly people forget all the previous mild 8 winters we had.

All people? Not at all. Memories are made of this.

Four to eight years before the mild winters, total solar activity in terms if irradiance and eruptivity had not decreased markedly, quite the reverse. Then they did.

irradiance


eruptivity



After the significant October 2005 decrease in eruptivity and irradiance the ABD published a PR #469 warning of what was imminent a few years down the line. They were clearly well informed Later PRs commented further on this.

http://www.abd.org.uk/pr/469.htm

http://www.abd.org.uk/pr/479.htm

http://www.abd.org.uk/pr/696.htm

http://www.abd.org.uk/pr/697.htm


Zakelwe's ilk would have us heating up under snow by thermos dynamics with BBQ summers and mild winters into the middle distance. That politicians are in awe to this nonsense is why we're unprepared for what's happening and about to happen. Policy is heading off one way as faithful believers adopt the emissionary position while climate is heading off in the other direction.

Buy Damart.

[Jasandjules]

zakelwe said:

That is not what me and turbobloke were discussing.

Andy

Any thread pertaining to the weather is the same topic ergo you can post up the evidence. Don't be shy now.

So off you go, get the evidence we have all been waiting for, remember, quality not quantity.

[turbobloke]

No more attrition looping hopefully. All of this is in the other threads.

The OP indicated foolish utterances reported in The Independent which being ridiculous ought to be ridiculed.

As many will know the remarks arose from the output of impacts models which feed off the GIGO from climate models.

Not a recipe for success but no doubt good for funding.

[turbobloke]

Jasandjules said:

zakelwe said:

That is not what me and turbobloke were discussing.

Andy

Any thread pertaining to the weather is the same topic ergo you can post up the evidence. Don't be shy now.

So off you go, get the evidence we have all been waiting for, remember, quality not quantity.

No point discussing with zakelwe. Pretty much all of the content that has revealed his position as untenable is either not read (by zakelwe), read and ignored, read and misinterpreted, or just flies overhead.

How many times has zakelwe said "solar is doing this, climate is doing that" even when the 4 to 8 year lag time solar-to-climate has been indicated several times.

Anyway no more attrition looping responses, it's all been demonstrated with data and references in the existing climate threads. True Believers asking repeat dumb questions which ignore data and sound science is no substitute for actually having a clue.

[deadslow]

Jasandjules said:

zakelwe said:

That is not what me and turbobloke were discussing.

Andy

Any thread pertaining to the weather is the same topic ergo you can post up the evidence. Don't be shy now.

So off you go, get the evidence we have all been waiting for, remember, quality not quantity.

Not patronising.

[zakelwe]

Jasandjules said:

zakelwe said:

That is not what me and turbobloke were discussing.

Andy

Any thread pertaining to the weather is the same topic ergo you can post up the evidence. Don't be shy now.

So off you go, get the evidence we have all been waiting for, remember, quality not quantity.

But I wasn't talking to turbobloke about weather, I was talking about solar cycle induced temperature change.

You are like a drunk bloke at a party who, when you are having a nice conversation with another interesting chap, comes barging in and makes sure you talk about what he wants to talk about even though it is slurred nonsense.

Can I finish my conversation with turbobloke or are you just going to add more chaff to the wheat?

Are you finished?

Would "Go away" give a clue?


Andy

[zakelwe]

turbobloke said:

How many times has zakelwe said "solar is doing this, climate is doing that" even when the 4 to 8 year lag time solar-to-climate has been indicated several times.

Hi turbobloke,

I don't believe I have ever said solar is linked to climate, unless I said it wasn't linked, because I don't believe it is linked in relation to recent warming just as this

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperat...

I do agree though that it is not fully understood.

Getting back to the point, snow is actually more due to amount of moisture in the air rather than coldness, so the recent snowy conditions are not mainly to do with the temps but the amount of H2O



Andy

[Westy Pre-Lit]

zakelwe said:

it is slurred nonsense.

Quite