Discussion
rog007 said:
It's not that, it's just that I know it's coming and I always like to be ahead of the crowd, sort of a trendsetter if you like! Plus, it means I'll come out of it a little earlier than everyone else!! :-)
drive it like you stole it is my motto!no point having it unless you are going to give it some beans, love to take that car around goodwood. Go on book a track day. you know you want to!
Standard & Poor's has downgraded Japan for the first time in nine years, citing lack of a "coherent strategy" to control its monster deficits or grasp the nettle to reform.
he move is a chilly reminder that sovereign debt woes continue to fester across much of the industrial world, and still pose a threat to the fragile global recovery.
The US rating agency cut Japan's $10.6 trillion (£6.6 trillion) debt one notch to AA-, warning that the mix of government paralysis, a shrinking workforce and a fast-rising interest burden have left the country's debt dynamics on an unsustainable footing.
Julian Jessop, from Capital Economics, said the unfolding drama in Tokyo has global implications since Japan is the world's top external creditor with $3 trillion of net assets abroad. "This is potentially a much bigger story than any default in Greece," he said.
The concern is that Japanese banks, pension funds and life insurers may forced to repatriate large sums to cover losses at home if the fiscal crisis triggers a jump in bond yields. This could set off a worldwide fall in asset prices.
Takahora Ogawa, S&P's Asian analyst, said Japan's economy is the same size today in nominal terms as it was in 1992 yet public debt has tripled. The combined central and regional government debt will reach 233pc of GDP this year, or 259pc including bonds under the Fiscal Investment and Loan Programme.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/...
Any people don't think West Nations + Japan are going to default?
he move is a chilly reminder that sovereign debt woes continue to fester across much of the industrial world, and still pose a threat to the fragile global recovery.
The US rating agency cut Japan's $10.6 trillion (£6.6 trillion) debt one notch to AA-, warning that the mix of government paralysis, a shrinking workforce and a fast-rising interest burden have left the country's debt dynamics on an unsustainable footing.
Julian Jessop, from Capital Economics, said the unfolding drama in Tokyo has global implications since Japan is the world's top external creditor with $3 trillion of net assets abroad. "This is potentially a much bigger story than any default in Greece," he said.
The concern is that Japanese banks, pension funds and life insurers may forced to repatriate large sums to cover losses at home if the fiscal crisis triggers a jump in bond yields. This could set off a worldwide fall in asset prices.
Takahora Ogawa, S&P's Asian analyst, said Japan's economy is the same size today in nominal terms as it was in 1992 yet public debt has tripled. The combined central and regional government debt will reach 233pc of GDP this year, or 259pc including bonds under the Fiscal Investment and Loan Programme.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/...
Any people don't think West Nations + Japan are going to default?
As I said; I'm ready! I've stockpiled beans and pasta in the shed, I've filled up everything that takes fuel and oil, I've cancelled my Sky subscription, I've prepared all the letters needed for when I default on everything and I'm not going to replace the rear boots on my cars when they get down to 4mm anymore; it's 1.6mm from now on 
rog007 said:
As I said; I'm ready! I've stockpiled beans and pasta in the shed, I've filled up everything that takes fuel and oil, I've cancelled my Sky subscription, I've prepared all the letters needed for when I default on everything and I'm not going to replace the rear boots on my cars when they get down to 4mm anymore; it's 1.6mm from now on
Have you got a gun?
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Trouble is, the majority of recessionary drag is being caused because this is a banking crisis, rather than any conventional recession.The banks - rightly - have acted to restore balance in their own affairs, but therefore cannot also provide lending to business, needed to get the economy back on track. Lots of companies are running below potential, not because they're failing, but because credit has been trimmmed.
Now the governments Project
Sadly, I fear that double dip is just around the corner.
Every business I talk to small or large has had an ok January and a shocker of a February. Doesn't seem to matter where they are in the country or in what industry. Things are tough out there. Overlay that with a does of inflation (and who believes the official figures?) and the effective tax of a higher oil price and it seems to me that it's a bolt on certainty. To compound it all the government cuts have barely stated to bite yet. Long, difficult days ahead I fear.
Every business I talk to small or large has had an ok January and a shocker of a February. Doesn't seem to matter where they are in the country or in what industry. Things are tough out there. Overlay that with a does of inflation (and who believes the official figures?) and the effective tax of a higher oil price and it seems to me that it's a bolt on certainty. To compound it all the government cuts have barely stated to bite yet. Long, difficult days ahead I fear.
fesuvious said:
1st Quarter will struggle to hit 0.1%
The data from Jan looked ok but Feb will be awful.
March I am not holding out much hope for. Prices at the pumps will be increasing for at least 10days yet. That has a massive impact on spending. Also, there is very little activity in the housing market right now compared to most of 2010 and indeed compared to Jan just gone.
Personally I think we could be 5 months into 2 quarters of negative growth.
I can only comment as far as the dozen Estate Agency offices I work for across North Surrey/SW London. This year has thus far been remarkably busy both for listings and sales. The previous quarter's sales are all going through to exchange with the usual success rate. It's busy.The data from Jan looked ok but Feb will be awful.
March I am not holding out much hope for. Prices at the pumps will be increasing for at least 10days yet. That has a massive impact on spending. Also, there is very little activity in the housing market right now compared to most of 2010 and indeed compared to Jan just gone.
Personally I think we could be 5 months into 2 quarters of negative growth.
(Of course young buyers are few and far between, but that's probably a discussion for the House Prices thread).
The pubs were also rammed on Thursday and yesterday and I fully expect Rugby drinkers to be out in force tonight too.
Bonus season is nearly with us.
But...at some point the public sector and associated private sector job losses have got to start kicking in.
I can only conclude the picture is very mixed.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Indeed. A good number of vendors claim to be keen to move but don't seem to have any desire to sell. Delusion is abundant. Fortunately my company is fairly mid market and rarely feels the need to take on those that want to pitch at 20% above market value and inevitably sit there for months. It's not that often that we take on those properties that have been doing the rounds for quarter after quarter, year after year either. Thankfully.Anecdotally I hear from agents in the TWs that the same clients keep going round and round and round. Many, as you say, for years now. There is still a fair bit of movement for these guys, too, however.
I'm RH, SM and high number SWs, by the way, that have historiucally been at the lower end of prices relative to other parts of Surrey and London. Maybe the client base is a little more down to earth. Those selling in the £700k - £2m bracket can probably afford to be more unrealistic as the NEED for them to move is that much lower.
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