GDP shocka

[thinfourth2]

onesmallstep said:

frosted said:

Just blame it on the weather

I blame it on the euro

I blame it on the boogie

[Fittster]

thinfourth2 said:

onesmallstep said:

frosted said:

Just blame it on the weather

I blame it on the euro

I blame it on the boogie

At least that lets the sunshine, moonlight and good times off the hook.

[jeff m]

Not just the B of E, the Treasury also had a hand in this.
The Gov has a problem if rates are raised, benifits and pensions are linked to the CPI. If rates are raised, inflation will go up, esp RPI.
Switching to CPI from RPI has helped them because it removed mortgage payments from the basket, not bad really because people on benifits and retirees don't generally have mortgages.
The B of E has been making low guesses and projections, probably told to do so by the Treasury!. Then they apologise for getting it wrong. I can only assume they think by telling people there isn't going to be inflation there won't be. Some logic there.
Although once people begin to realise inflation wasn't 1% and growth is in the toilet the productive quarter of the country begins to panic and start to run lots of "what ifs".
Near term, I doubt they would risk anything more than .5, anything more would damage the Gov more than you. For the Gov, taxation is the usual route. So higher taxes are IMO more likely to be on the horizon than high rate rises.
Tempered of course by the same 'ol "higher paid people are not paying their fair share".
As an individual, if your personel finacial situation is better than the Govs, then any rate rise they implement will hurt them more than you.

I'm not sure going to cash is the answer, there is growth elsewhere even if you don't like the UK market.

Sometimes I think these press releases are used to try to get sympathy from the masses (for the Gov) Some sort of tug on the patriotic heart strings.

Oh, and why is it a shocka

[NoelWatson]

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Who in the real world predicts something with more success than pure chance?

[Fittster]

NoelWatson said:

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Who in the real world predicts something with more success than pure chance?

Are you saying large investment banks give salaries to charlatans (no not the band, we don't need any more musical references in the thread) who can't deliver anything useful?

http://www.workhound.co.uk/jobs/Economist-jobs

[NoelWatson]

Fittster said:

NoelWatson said:

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Who in the real world predicts something with more success than pure chance?

Are you saying large investment banks give salaries to charlatans (no not the band, we don't need any more musical references in the thread) who can't deliver anything useful?

http://www.workhound.co.uk/jobs/Economist-jobs

Some people may feel they provide value - maybe their clients like to receive their thoughts.

[rsv gone!]

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Were they really not? It was obvious to me that GDP would contract [and lots on here, I'll wager], and I'm no economist. I wonder if it was a case of talking up the economy as an awful lot of the strength in the economy is simply people's comfort in spending money.

Edited by rsv gone! on Tuesday 25th January 19:20

[crankedup]

NoelWatson said:

crankedup said:

Its difficult to find any organisation which are supporting this Governments monetary policies. Still they must be correct and on the right track if the Tories say so

Labour and the World Banks got us into this mess and I can't see the current Government getting us out of it TBH.

crankedup said:

Its difficult to find any organisation which are supporting this Governments monetary policies

Who is against it?

crankedup said:

Still they must be correct and on the right track

Agreed, and out credit rating reflects that

crankedup said:

Labour and the World Banks got us into this mess

Also bankers and consumers

crankedup said:

and I can't see the current Government getting us out of it TBH

It won't happen overnight, but then we had a decade long binge, so that is to be expected

As the old saying goes 'the proof of the pudding will be in the bleating'.

[crankedup]

zakelwe said:

It will be worse when all those public sector people are on the dole.

Although a fine theory in practice for future generations, it's going to be tough for this generation in the next few years.

One bright spot, manufacturing is doing relatively well, thanks to the low £. I do wonder if the minimum wage is not just a bit too high though nowadays for these current times?

Andy

Agree, once the Public Sector starts cutting into all the private contract works, by Mid Summer the Governments Policies will begin hitting home to the Nation of middle Britain. Unemployment will rise hugely and don't forget all these people will be drawing benefits money and not paying tax.
In short 'to much to fast'. The Osborne will stick to his guns relentlessly and go down with the sinking ship.
I shouldn't worry over the minimum wage being to high, inflation will soon cut that back, or stagnation is it.

[crankedup]

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Predicted by the opposition.

[NoelWatson]

crankedup said:

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Predicted by the opposition.

Good old Labour and their predictions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU_fzCpwrNc

[NoelWatson]

crankedup said:

NoelWatson said:

crankedup said:

Its difficult to find any organisation which are supporting this Governments monetary policies. Still they must be correct and on the right track if the Tories say so

Labour and the World Banks got us into this mess and I can't see the current Government getting us out of it TBH.

crankedup said:

Its difficult to find any organisation which are supporting this Governments monetary policies

Who is against it?

crankedup said:

Still they must be correct and on the right track

Agreed, and out credit rating reflects that

crankedup said:

Labour and the World Banks got us into this mess

Also bankers and consumers

crankedup said:

and I can't see the current Government getting us out of it TBH

It won't happen overnight, but then we had a decade long binge, so that is to be expected

As the old saying goes 'the proof of the pudding will be in the bleating'.

Who is bleating?

[Rocksteadyeddie]

Corsair7 said:

Rocksteadyeddie said:

Terrible number. We can but hope that there was a significant weather effect in there as suggested by the ONS.

they've had terrible weather on the continent the last few months too, is there a similar affect on their economic figures? Would be nice to know.

Their numbers are not out yet. In an event they are likely to be less impacted than the UK numbers principally because of the lack of an "internet delivery effect".

[Slaav]

crankedup said:

Fittster said:

rsv gone! said:

Can we find the one person in the whole country who was 'shocked' (or even mildly surprised) by this news and give them a good shake?

I suggest you shake the economists employed in the city, they weren't predicting this fall in GDP.

Predicted by the opposition.

In the best humour possible on a forum.... what the fk?

Of course they MAY have predicted this! They knew how fked we were before they were booted out!!!! FFS

I am sure I caught something earlier where Balls was actually going on about how foolish it was to cut so savagely and rely on stifled growth to dig us out of the mess that THE COALITION have got us into? (History will tell us the wisdom of GB and his cronies)

I am sure that isnt word perfect but paraphrased slightly before you shoot me down.

How on Earth can the opposition be right on any of this? We will never know for sure but one thing the VAST majority agree on is that if cuts had not been made (and Balls was very anti a little while ago) then we would have been down graded as a country and that is a terminally slippery slope is it not?

I dont have the answers; not sure anyone has to be honest; but one thing is for sure (IMHO of course) - and that is we would be following the PIGS if those champagne socialist idiots were still in charge of the mad house - and most (not just on here) would possibly agree with me?

(No champagne smiley to be found anywhere)

[crankedup]

NoelWatson said:

crankedup said:

NoelWatson said:

crankedup said:

Its difficult to find any organisation which are supporting this Governments monetary policies. Still they must be correct and on the right track if the Tories say so

Labour and the World Banks got us into this mess and I can't see the current Government getting us out of it TBH.

crankedup said:

Its difficult to find any organisation which are supporting this Governments monetary policies

Who is against it?

crankedup said:

Still they must be correct and on the right track

Agreed, and out credit rating reflects that

crankedup said:

Labour and the World Banks got us into this mess

Also bankers and consumers

crankedup said:

and I can't see the current Government getting us out of it TBH

It won't happen overnight, but then we had a decade long binge, so that is to be expected

As the old saying goes 'the proof of the pudding will be in the bleating'.

Who is bleating?

We have to wait and see, hence my use of words "will be'.

[JagLover]

crankedup said:

Unemployment will rise hugely and don't forget all these people will be drawing benefits money and not paying tax.
In short 'to much to fast'. The Osborne will stick to his guns relentlessly and go down with the sinking ship.
I shouldn't worry over the minimum wage being to high, inflation will soon cut that back, or stagnation is it.

The state paying someone 100% of their salary and then getting back a part of that in taxes does not represent an improvement in the fiscal position.

and on another point Labour can talk all it likes about 'to much too fast' if they had managed to stay in power we would shortly be heading for the IMF and they would be telling us by how much to cut.

[crankedup]

One of the problems is that Joe Public faithfully follow their leaders, whether they be Tory, Labour or anything else that purports to be a political party. I would feel slightly less queasy about the Coalition if the Tory Party had managed to capture a reasonable level of the electorate. But they didn't, and yet they are imposing all sorts of policies that were not in their mandate, along with the turncoat Lib-Dems (whoM I voted for). Its going to cost the Country a fortune to undo a lot of the policies enacted by this lot.

[crankedup]

JagLover said:

crankedup said:

Unemployment will rise hugely and don't forget all these people will be drawing benefits money and not paying tax.
In short 'to much to fast'. The Osborne will stick to his guns relentlessly and go down with the sinking ship.
I shouldn't worry over the minimum wage being to high, inflation will soon cut that back, or stagnation is it.

The state paying someone 100% of their salary and then getting back a part of that in taxes does not represent an improvement in the fiscal position.

and on another point Labour can talk all it likes about 'to much too fast' if they had managed to stay in power we would shortly be heading for the IMF and they would be telling us by how much to cut.

If you would care to read what I have posted earlier you will notice that I refer to the private sector losing contracts, and this will lead to more job losses in those Companies that are over reliant on public service contracts. So add those job losses to the public service job losses.

[KENZ]

That period figures should have been the highest for the year. Weather would'nt have been a huge factor. I can see a double dip on the horizon if this goverment stays it's course and we've not had the public sector cuts yet!!!

[spikeyhead]

uk_vette said:

So what to do with the lump of savings in the bank?
I dont want to buy a house, as I believe the general house prices will still drop further during this 2011.
Move cash to another country that is offering far better interest rates?
China ?

'vette

I'm buying an Atom. Anyone think it's the wrong thing to do?