Climate change - the POLITICAL debate.

Climate change - the POLITICAL debate.

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turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
Symptoms of the tide going out and a sudden drop in campaign temperature are evident even on here with the usual suspects plumbing the depths of humdrum humourless insults, still, it is familiar territory for them and when there's nothing of any validity to offer as an alternative, what's to do. Apart from the obvious.

Jasandjules

69,787 posts

228 months

Friday 9th March 2012
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What is good is that a few years ago we were all saying that in a few years it will start to fall away as the Solar activity is so low that there will be no "global warming" to speak of....... (mind, even some Govt websites had similar articles!)............. And lo, it comes to pass...

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
Jasandjules said:
What is good is that a few years ago we were all saying that in a few years it will start to fall away as the Solar activity is so low that there will be no "global warming" to speak of....... (mind, even some Govt websites had similar articles!)............. And lo, it comes to pass...
yes

It began in the late eighties - not on here - at a time when the manmadeup warming scam was racing to Peak Guff status. As the junkscience said so but the sound science said no this was inevitable. Recorded delivery letters to the PM's office and broadsheets in the late nineties and early noughties (copies retained too) called time on the scam but like everything else were effectively ignored, though as you say there was an Archibald pdf on a possible forthcoming Dalton Minimum placed on HM Treasury's website and it may well be there still.

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
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Polishing that amount of brassneck must surely contribute to local warming via friction.

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
EU developments apparently emanating from Poland making use of an EU initiative broadly similar to our No 10 online petitions - there was an address, telephone number and e-mail on the original but best not keep those for the internet at this point on here.

SUSPEND THE ENERGY AND CLIMATE PACKAGE

The aim of the initiative is to call on the Commission to suspend the
energy and climate policy package until the global agreement is
reached or until 2020.

As we know, the EU is now the only important player who commits itself
to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, while all other
industrial powers do not want such a commitment. The Durban talks have
failed. Just after that Canada withdrew from Kyoto protocol. In the
meantime, the current self-imposed obligations of the EU are:

  • to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels
  • to increase the share of renewable resources in energy consumption to 20%
  • to improve energy efficiency by 20% until the year 2020
This policy is extremely costly and will put the EU industry at a
competitive disadvantage. It will lead to the loss of jobs and
increase of energy costs, and a rise of costs of living for people in
all EU Member States.

As the EU is responsible for only 14% of the global emissions of
greenhouse gases, and the global emission is supposed to double until
2020, even if the EU succeeds in emissions' reduction, it would reduce
a global emission by some 1-2%, i.e. by a negligible margin.

Therefore, the EU policy is of no importance even for those who
believe in anthropogenic global warming. Our initiative, to suspend
the package until the global agreement is reached, should be then
supported not only by those who do not believe that there is
anthropogenic global warming, but also by those who think that any
unilateral action will not provide any effects, and only global action
may succeed.

Some states will be particularly affected by the package, like Poland,
where it is estimated that the costs of energy will rise by 80-100%
until 2020, and around 250,000-300,000 jobs will be lost. It is estimated
that the total costs of the low carbon economy in 2020 will
reach 2.9 trillion Euro.

The European Citizens' Initiative is a new tool provided for in the
Lisbon Treaty. It allows at least 1 million people from at least 7 EU
countries to call on the European Commission to propose legislation on
matters where the EU has competence to legislate. The initiative can
only be formally started after the 1st of April, 2012. A citizens'
committee has to be set up, consisting of at least 7 members from 7
countries. In Poland, the initiative is led by the former President of
Polish Parliament, Mr Ludwik Dorn.

The initiative has to be registered by the European Commission. After
registration, the collection of signatures may start. There is a 12
months deadline to collect at least 1 million signatures. Signatures
may be also collected on-line, but proper rules are not in place in
every Member State as of today.

Where the initiative backed by 1 million signatures is submitted to
the Commission, there will be a public hearing in the European
Parliament and the European Commission has to adopt a formal response
spelling out what action it intends to take, if any, and its reasons.
However, the European Commission is not obliged to take any actions if
decides not to do so.
<snip>
Biuro Poselskie
etc

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
They're (almost) using my plant food gas line in that course, I'd seek royalty rights but some believer would then claim I was profiting from the scam they want to keep for lining their own pockets. Hmmm wonder if a disturbine or three would gerron moi larnd wink

As to The Grauniad, it was already a joke of a rag and now it's still a joke of a rag. Hopefully somebody directly involved will pursue this highly accurate and unbiased reporting laugh through the Press Complaints Commission.

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
Guam said:
Its all beginning to unravel now, the very fact a discussion like this one on Judiths blog exists shows how much garbage and disinformation has been in the oublic domain <well known to many here at PH>

"Should we tell the whole truth about climate change"?

http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/08/should-we-tell-t...
Point totally taken about the discussion appearing but Curry is still putting out as too ambivalent and allows dreadful content to appear and remain insufficiently challenged such as this, which assaults the senses after barely starting to read. She's quoting somebody else but that's no excuse:

"So that brings me to climate change. The essential and utterly valid message, based on the best available science, is that the Earth is warming; it’s largely due to us; it’s going to keep warming unless we do something, and there’s a significant chance that the consequences will be disastrous."

Utterly valid...ffs

The best available science...says no such thing, junkscience says so, therefore the writer is deluding themselves and others.

The Earth is warming...what does that imprecise waffle mean, the surface, the near-surface, which, and if it's not the satellite era troposphere data which has its own problems but is likely to be far more reliable than sensors near aircon outlets and airport tarmac, then the writer doesn't actually know what the warming is and if it's the troposphere then the warming is such that we now have a global troposphere temperature anomaly at the same level to a very good approximation as we had in 1980 which by my reckoning is 32 years ago (climate timescale).

It's going to keep warming...that must mean just like now then.

Consequences will be disastrous...maybe yes but only for the fabric of science itself after the peer review abuse scandals and junksciencefest of the past two decades.

It all sounds a bit too Mike Hulme for me. Science serving politics, speaking truth to power, swapping truth for influence and all that unscientific codswallop.

As for this from Curry, words fail: "Since this has been going on in the context of the climate change problem for 20+ years, we’ve seen that simplicity doesn’t work, and the “good guys” often behave badly (whichever side you define to be “good”; Peter Gleick is the most recent example)"

Disgraceful spin about an individual the least mentioned the better.

Curry must be an acquired taste too far for me tonight.

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
Guam said:
I do wonder if she is trying too hard to walk the tightrope, given she is close to best and doesnt want to be seen at the vanguard of purveyors of the boot?
Spot on.

She's walking a tightrope but seems to be using a hockey stick for balance and leaning over to the warm side a lot.

LongQ

Original Poster:

13,864 posts

232 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Guam said:
I do wonder if she is trying too hard to walk the tightrope, given she is close to best and doesnt want to be seen at the vanguard of purveyors of the boot?
Spot on.

She's walking a tightrope but seems to be using a hockey stick for balance and leaning over to the warm side a lot.
Inclusion?

Suck them in and give them somewhere to seek a compromise safe haven? Save their pensions? It might work for the underlings even if Mann et al. reject the idea.

jurbie

2,338 posts

200 months

Friday 9th March 2012
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
EU developments apparently emanating from Poland making use of an EU initiative broadly similar to our No 10 online petitions - there was an address, telephone number and e-mail on the original but best not keep those for the internet at this point on here.

SUSPEND THE ENERGY AND CLIMATE PACKAGE


etc
Interesting that you post this today as yesterday I nearly posted about a report I saw on Polish TV news. Basically the EU wants to increase its CO2 cuts from the current 20% to 25% however Poland, which gets 80% of its energy from coal, has told the EU to get stuffed.

What was worrying however was the manner in which this was reported which would have made the BBC proud including a few words from a local WWF representative boldly stating without challenge that we are all headed to hell in a handbasket if we don't cut CO2 now.

hidetheelephants

23,547 posts

192 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
Jasandjules said:
The Excession said:
Delingpole for a Nobel Prize? Because let's face it, if Gore got one the idea isn't too far fetched eh?
And have Al Gore stripped of his. And then shot.
Shooting is a little harsh; I'm partial to the idea of locking him up and forcing him to watch his stupid film 24hrs a day Clockwork Orange style.

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
Guam said:
Interesting interview with JC here, she still sits squarely on the fence <where she has always been in fairness> with reference to a human component in climate change. Clever position to adopt, as if there is a component however minor then she can,t be wrong smile

Basically she suggests that the IPCC is past its sell by date <and here I wholly agree>.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-ipcc-may-...
Agreed that the IPCC needs abolishing or radical reform, but saying that a molecule or more of manmade carbon dioxide is involved in radiative transfer isn't sitting on the fence, it's stating the bleedin obvious! The question goes beyond a non-zero influence on radiative transfers, which is a strawman put up by believers all the time when they get upset by idiots in their camp saying that the science is settled. Radiative absorption isn't in dispute. The question is, will there ever be anything visible, unambiguously attributable, measurable, arising from marginal increases above 280ppm in a trace gas with weak absorptions in longwave IR - and in terms of a 'dangerous' effect too since we are told armageddon is coming, to this day on a quote in the other Judith Curry blog link. The answers are no and no on the basis of present data and sound science.

If anybody has time, take a closer look at some of the Spencer links I posted recently and focus in on the language in replies to people like Claes Johnson, Gordon Robertson, Harry Huffman and Leonard Weinstein. Not that everything posted is totally flawless - I'm addressing the nature of the replies. You don't have to be a shrink to spot the surprising levels of insecurity which emerge not only in forms of expression but the approach being used of late which reminds me to a degree of believers on here.

There are informed, intelligent people engaging in debate and they're increasingly getting the treatment dished out by disciples of gaia. The lack of awareness of sloppy science, imprecise terminology and apparent level of insecurity in fundamental aspects of science is depressing. Hubris is not a satisfactory replacement.

ETA you have to wonder if this is where a certain somebody got their obsession with jumpers and blankets


Edited by turbobloke on Saturday 10th March 08:17

PRTVR

7,071 posts

220 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
The problem is they have no exit strategy, how are they going to get out of this mess that is falling around them, when it all falls apart how are they going deal with people who they perceive as helping this to happen.

Judith Curry has fine line to walk in my opinion,on one side she would like to just say what she thinks,
But could this lead to a lack of prospects in the future, this is one way they could be maintaining the consensus.

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
The problem is they have no exit strategy, how are they going to get out of this mess that is falling around them, when it all falls apart how are they going deal with people who they perceive as helping this to happen.

Judith Curry has fine line to walk in my opinion,on one side she would like to just say what she thinks,
But could this lead to a lack of prospects in the future, this is one way they could be maintaining the consensus.
That must be playing a part, I believe LongQ mentioned something similar a day or so ago which struck a chord. If LongQ actually made a different point the error is mine!

In the case of climate 'scientists' though even before the exit one might expect an appropriate degree of security in terms of grip on the most fundamental aspects of physical science.

PRTVR

7,071 posts

220 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
That must be playing a part, I believe LongQ mentioned something similar a day or so ago which struck a chord. If LongQ actually made a different point the error is mine!

In the case of climate 'scientists' though even before the exit one might expect an appropriate degree of security in terms of grip on the most fundamental aspects of physical science.
A day or so ago....... I struggle to remember thing that happened few minutes ago biggrin
I do not have contact with scientists but do come across engineers, and sometimes I despair at their lack of understanding of thing (and also their inability to take suggestions) so I would think that the same problems apply to scientists.
Its an age thing TB sometimes I think they give away degrees if you just turn up to the course smile

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
turbobloke said:
That must be playing a part, I believe LongQ mentioned something similar a day or so ago which struck a chord. If LongQ actually made a different point the error is mine!

In the case of climate 'scientists' though even before the exit one might expect an appropriate degree of security in terms of grip on the most fundamental aspects of physical science.
A day or so ago....... I struggle to remember thing that happened few minutes ago biggrin
I do not have contact with scientists but do come across engineers, and sometimes I despair at their lack of understanding of thing (and also their inability to take suggestions) so I would think that the same problems apply to scientists.
Its an age thing TB sometimes I think they give away degrees if you just turn up to the course smile
Is that not the major entry criterion for some of the erm avant-garde degrees these days?! It keeps the course alive and funded...

turbobloke

103,631 posts

259 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
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Guam said:
Monckton at his Very Very Best

Great read from Watts on a recent presentation by Monckton to a university Campus

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/10/moncktons-sc...
Superb.

Unfortunate therefore that he started with results obtained in a lab before the advent of quantum molecular spectroscopy and the more detailed analyses of degrees of freedom in systems so complex as a chaotic coupled non-linear ocean atmosphere climate system, and that he did not ask the professor to define closely in scientific terms what exactly the greenhouse effect is.

Superb recall of facts, figures and forceful compelling exemplification.

Pesty

42,655 posts

255 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
Guam said:
Yep the Blood is in the water for the Arch Gurus of AGW, Switching from Mann to David Suzuki, Tv takedown Of Suzuki here and it truens out he lobby's the UK Govt for cash!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd...

UK gets ripped into at about 9:30 and rightly so, this needs looking into in more depth imho.
How much of this GLOBAL EXCERCISE is the UK taxpayer paying for?

Edited by Guam on Saturday 10th March 07:22
so we are all magots

jesus how did these clowns get so powerful?

they are just charactures of themselves.

Edited by Pesty on Saturday 10th March 12:39

Globs

13,841 posts

230 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
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Pesty said:
so we are all magets

jesus how did these clowns get so powerful?

they are just charactures of themselves.
They get power from the government money, given to them by the idiots in government.
Very very few MPs actually have any intelligence, and the ones who do (like Peter Lilley) know full well that AGW is a scam and will speak out against it.

Pesty

42,655 posts

255 months

Saturday 10th March 2012
quotequote all
Where are our investigative journoslist? why are they not doing this kind of thing over here?

watched that whole clip and teh guy showed he was breaking the law.

Where is the Panorama programme on this kind of thing?
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