Kinda meant one just for you as your blog but no probs. Will keep an eye on this thread. Good luck!

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Bank: £1040.00
Stake (5%): £52.00
Selection: Lost @ 2.875 SP - ESP 3.0
Winnings/Losses @ ESP: -£52.63
Winnings/Losses @ SP: -£52.00
Updated Bank @ ESP: £999.87
Updated Bank @ SP: £988.00
Next Stake (5% of SP Bank): £49.40

Running Profit/Loss(Based on Industry SP) -£12.00

mrmr96 - the plan is for me to pick 'value' selections. Now most of these will be odds on but a selection can be odds on and still represent value. The idea came from the other thread which was dicussing odds-on gambling and I thought that I would share with them what I have been doing for a while. So when the price of a horse is 1.5 (1/2 in old money!) then if I think the price should be 1.3 then its a bet, if I think the price should be 1.8 then its not a bet. However looking at my previous results I am quite happy for the prices to be shown @ SP and not some un-avaliable early morning price that no one ever gets!!! To answer your question no I wouldn't be better off playing roulette as in roulette you are only getting odds of 35/1 about a 36/1 shot so theres no edge. No one knows exactly what price a horse 'should' be its a matter of opinion no matter how efficient the market is. The commission exchanges take is between 2% and 5% so if you win £50 on an exchange you actually receive between £49 and £47.50 depending upon your individual commission rate. I would just like to say that I am NOT encouraging any viewers of the thread to bet ANY or ALL of these selections as no profit is suggested or guaranteed I am just doing it for a bit of fun and to give other PH's an insight in to it as there are quite a few 'gambling folk' on here looking at previous threads. The reason the selections are always a short price is mainly due to the fact that I hate long losing runs. Long losing runs are hard to cope with and I don't have the make up to deal with them. Therefore I aim for a high strike rate and a reasonable average SP in order to try and make it more of an investment rather than a gamble.

Lets just see how it goes.....

Yes, because you're trying to beat market efficiency so should grow the account in the long term.

Would you not be better off backing the horse you think will win, rather than one which you think is mis-priced but still going to lose?

An absurd but possibly valid example: If a horse is priced at 1000:1 but you think the odds are really 800:1 your strategy would suggest you should back it. Doesn't seem like a great strategy at this point?

On the other hand, a horse priced at 1.1:1 when you think the real odds are 1.2:1 you'd not back it. Even though that horse is more likely to win, your strategy says don't back it. Instead back the horse at 1000:1 whose real odds are 800:1.

Most of the time you'll lose, but I presume you're telling me that in the LOOOOOONG term, your strategy will work and make money?

mrmr69 - the reason I concentrate on short prices is because I don't like long losing runs. With your big price example in theory yes thats what I'm talking about but I don't want to play at that end of the market only having a very low strike rate %age. In your example the price avaliable of 1000/1 is only 20% more than the price I think it should be 800/1 which isn't really enough. If a 1.5 shot is avaliable at 1.8 then that is 60% more value if you see what I mean and thats key.

Ha ha - well like all gambling and investing you haven't won anything until you have cashed in your chips and walked away from the table forever!! That counts for the man backing dogs in 10p reverse forecasts all day in the bookies right up to the 'sophisticated investor' with a balanced portfolio of funds and shares!!

The 'floor' in this example is when the initial £1,000 has gone, or when it becomes pointless in betting the selections, as using a 5% 'rolling bank' in theory you could go on losing for a very long time and it would take ages to reach £0

The 'ceiling' is..... well build the bank up from £1,000 to a level where you either cash the lot in and buy something (car?) or make regular withdrawls in order to live on or to top up your main income.

I am not at either of these places with my own personal bank at the moment however there have been many years of losing money previously and it will take a while just to get me back to £0 when you take in to account total amount of money lost gambling to total amount won!! I find the hardest thing personally is knowing when not to have a bet. You can quite easily and quickly give back winnings due to inpatience and lack of discipline. Thats another reason why it may be good for me to post up selections and results bet by bet on here so that I don't lose my way either.

Bank: £988.00
Stake (5%): £49.40
Selection: Won @ 2.1 SP - ESP 2.25
Winnings/Losses @ ESP: £62.50
Winnings/Losses @ SP: £54.34
Updated Bank @ ESP: £1062.37
Updated Bank @ SP: £1042.34
Next Stake (5% of SP Bank): £52.12

Running Profit/Loss (Based on ESP) £62.37
Running Profit/Loss(Based on SP) £42.34


(edited to correct 1 of the figures!)

Why not? No races or just not in the mood?

Ah, in that case, wise move! I guess the extra liquidity from punters makes it harder to find value?