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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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K87 - its up to you, there are no guarantees or promises!!! If you do then please make sure you stick to the staking plan, either 5% or 10% of the bank at all times 
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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23/08/11 - 17:20 Yarmouth - Arctic Maiden
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RemainAllHoof
47,812 posts
151 months
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F458 said: Well Betfair have their own bots and more importantly a cross matching bot. There only used to be a handful of bot users on Betfair now there are 100's if not 1000's. There is a lot more competition, strategies that worked a couple of years ago are now defunct. Also the speed at which you get to the 'front of the queue' has changed dramatically, its all a big race when it comes to bots and the ever changing, improving of them these days is very time consuming and a constantly moving beast. Also most of the bot creation now is above and beyond your normal guy who knows a bit about programming and is only the ground of the experts and financial trading code creators. I have met and know a couple of bot owners/creators who have made £millions and I do mean £millions from running their programs on Betfair however in recent years Betfair have decided that they want to take a bigger slice of the pie and now it is harder than its ever been to be successful in this area. Although not impossible I am told!!! I do see bots doing their thing - they make it really obvious sometimes. For instance, there's someone I've nicknamed Johnny 800 (after the Short Circuit robot Johnny 5) who always places approx £800 on the ladder just outside of the current price. I guess it's €1000. I noticed him a year ago on many of the football markets so I assume he's doing well. And then there's the £400 bot who will suddenly place about 15 £400 on the back and lay side, I think close to the end of the game when the odds are low because that team is winning. Anyway, I can't code well enough to bother so I will have to do it manually. I'd like to trade in-running horses but it moves far too fast and I can't work out a good strategy. There was one guy on one of the trading forums who was routinely turning £20 into £600 in a couple of days! Tennis is another one with lots of potential but I've tried and my edge is so blunt it's labelled "child friendly".
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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RemainAllHoof - DO NOT bet in running unless you are at the racecourse watching it on their live in house feed. The delays by watching it on ATR or RUK are too long, up to 5 or 6 seconds somedays. Thus you see the market suspended when a horse is 1/2 a furlong out sometimes. There are teams of guys that hire out boxes at racecourses and do this for a living, unless you are there you will always be at a disadvantage to them.
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Oi_Oi_Savaloy
1,895 posts
129 months
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I'm just posting to say that I'm going to make a small bet on the Yarmouth horse (if that's ok F458?) - about a fiver (yes - last of the big spenders!).
I'm betting so low because, although I like your win percentage, I haven't actually done any of my own research into Arctic Maiden so don't feel as comfortable as I usually do when backing something.
But I'm intrigued - you've won more often than not so what the hell!
I lost a fiver yesterday on India - I placed a fiver (at 100-1) on a tied match. It was two pm when I placed the bet, they had 6 wickets in hand and so I thought it was worth a punt. By 3pm England had broken India's resistance......(!). But if Tendulkar and Dhoni had stayed together - you never know - they'd have tied the match potentially - I felt the risk was worth it so went for it. But of course I lost. England had struggled in the morning session and I just felt that winning £500 by going against the market would be a welcome Monday bonus!
So I'm now at £53.51 (was at £58.51 on an original £20 investment).
I'm going to bet a fiver (at whatever odds are offered - betfair aren't up yet) and see what happens on Arctic Maiden this evening.
What I admire is your level of knowledge of all these horses (and tracks) that I've never heard of! Is this through a love of the sport (going to the races, studying form etc) or is it just another horse offering the value criteria you've mentioned in earlier posts?
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Oi_Oi_Savaloy
1,895 posts
129 months
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It won! Congratulations F458. My immense bet of £3.51 (I know I said I'd bet a fiver but I changed my mind and didn't want to breach £50 if I lost, has yielded £6.53 (minus 5.05% commission) - leaves me with £59.71).
So my betfair wallet grows from £53.51 to £59.71.
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K87
1,492 posts
56 months
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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 Won Bank: £1133.24 Stake (5%): £56.66 Selection: Won @ 2.75 SP - ESP 2.86 Winnings/Losses @ ESP: £108.92 Winnings/Losses @ SP: £99.16 Updated Bank @ ESP: £1280.31 Updated Bank @ SP: £1232.40 Next Stake (5% of SP Bank): £61.62 Running Profit/Loss (Based on ESP) £280.31 Running Profit/Loss(Based on SP) £232.40
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Oi_Oi_Savaloy
1,895 posts
129 months
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Thanks 458 - I just wanted my £5 back from yesterday's loss plus as I say - I didn't want to breach £50 in the account if I lost today too. So that left me with £3.51 to play with.
Appreciate the tip - thanks.
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Oi_Oi_Savaloy
1,895 posts
129 months
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My next bet will be with £9.71. Then if I win I'll double up again. As soon as I've got up to £75 I'll then revert to smaller bets and start again, using £75 as a base.
Let's see if that (crap!) system works!
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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Oi Oi Savaloy - Pleased it won for you but you must appreciate that you can't really dip in and out of these selections for a long term profit. You either have to back them all or don't back any. Anyway it won so you now have the choice as to whether you continue following them or not but imagine if it had lost then what would you have done?
Also I think you were mistaken with your cricket bet yesterday. There is a lot of difference between a 'tie' and a DRAW - I think you thought you were getting 100/1 on the draw but you were not, you were getting 100/1 on the tie. In order for it to have been a tie India would have had to get more runs than England say 100 more and then England would have had to have been all out for 100 exactly then it would have been a tie. If Tendulka and Dhoni had stayed in all afternoon/evening then the result would have been a draw. At around 2pm yesterday the draw was odds on and no where near 100/1. Make sure you understand what you are betting on!!
Pleased with the price again of todays selection, I think the fact that it refused to race 2 starts ago added to the price as people thought it would do it again. When people go on about value todays was a prime example, if this horse was odds on then it would not have been a bet. When I checked the odds this morning it was 2/1 in some places so therefore a long way away from being odds on, thats one of the reasons it was a bet today.
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Oi_Oi_Savaloy
1,895 posts
129 months
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458 - you've called it. I got that bet totally wrong - (I confused a draw with a tie). Thanks for clarifying it. That's actually
I'll bet on everything you post up and if it wins - it wins. If it loses - it loses. The only exception to the rule is that I'm not able to check PH every day. but if you post something up I'll bet on it.
Once the £50 is gone; that's me done. I'm not going to put anything back into my betfair account.
About that bet yesterday - still smarting from my incompetence to be honest........
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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Don't stress about the cricket bet, at least it was only a fiver. Its all in the gambling learning curve!!! If you do follow the selections then make sure you are only staking 5% or 10% of your 'bank', don't overstake on some and understake on others. As far as getting the selections goes I have started up a blog/page on Facebook (i know i know!!!) as these days its the easiest place to everyone to access. But I don't have any 'likes' or 'fans' yet so I don't have a proper url for you to click on. But if you are on Facebook and you search for "Short Price Horses" then you should come to a page with a picture of a wad of £50 notes  if you 'like' that or just check it every day then you will see the selections on there also. There is also an email address on there that you can contact and I can send you the selections from there everyday if that helps. However I have to admit I am not very good with Facebook or computers in general so just bear with me if nothing happens for a few days!!!
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ringram
12,203 posts
117 months
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Sounds like its all down to stats. You guys must have a good head for it.
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RemainAllHoof
47,812 posts
151 months
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F458 said: RemainAllHoof - DO NOT bet in running unless you are at the racecourse watching it on their live in house feed. The delays by watching it on ATR or RUK are too long, up to 5 or 6 seconds somedays. Thus you see the market suspended when a horse is 1/2 a furlong out sometimes. There are teams of guys that hire out boxes at racecourses and do this for a living, unless you are there you will always be at a disadvantage to them. Not betting - trading. I know people trade at the trackside but I do read about people who don't and manage to make a living.
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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24/08/11 - No Selection Today
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RemainAllHoof
47,812 posts
151 months
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I know some horses have original names but can you at least tell us which track that one is running at? 
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louiebaby
5,332 posts
60 months
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From the world I work in, I'm wondering why a couple of you aren't putting together a CV to apply for jobs in the City. Spotting a trend, building a system and back testing it to pick horses is very similar to what traders do to pick stocks or pairs to trade against each other. Programming "bots" to do what you suggest in BetFair is so similar to what Algo Trading guys do. Get a bit of an evidence base built up, and start getting in touch with people. Someone somewhere will take a punt and hire you if you can prove yourselves. With financial markets, the depth for placing larger bets is there, and places have the capital just waiting for something that works. Buy me a new McLaren with your first bonus to says thanks. 
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F458
Original Poster
1,009 posts
38 months
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louiebaby - Yes you are probably right and to be honest I have probably missed the boat now. I did do financials for myself when I got priced out of the Betfair market. I should have then taken on a software developer with far greater skills than myself in order to keep that going, I think I would have probably survived another couple of years if I had of done. I did OK in the financials and survived the 2008 crash quite easily but I never had my heart in it and my strategies were getting less and less profitable, and to be honest I think I ran out of ideas. On the sports betting side I have abundant ideas but not the required programming skills but again the goalposts keep on moving very quickly, an edge today is an edge that someone is trying to erode away from you tomorrow!! I guess I have gone full circle and am back to punting like I was in the betting shops 12 years ago but in a 2011 style!!! However I have 12 years of knowledge and over the years have been on the bookmaking side of the business at one point also so I am not as hopeless and wreckless as I was back then!!! I also have an each way double strategy and a laying strategy which are looking good at the moment, so I'm not just relying on this selection process and 'system' if you want to call it that!! The problem is that you don't know what is going to go on forever, the chances are that none of my strategies will, so you have to constantly develop new ideas/angles and even go back to selection processes which you have already tested say 2 years ago and see if they can be tweaked in any way. At least with the exchanges it is possible to scale up the stakes as you can have many £thousands on a short price horse on the exchanges week in week out without getting restricted or banned!!! Now 7 or 8 years ago this was not the case, if you wanted to bet in any volume then you still had to use a bookie either off or on course. Just for the record, it was very close to having a selection today and I have just looked and it did win but I did not bet it and I did not post it up and it wasn't a 100% selection so its not in any of the results. Every time this happens I have to remind myself of the nearly selections which don't go on and win and how happy I am that I didn't bend the rules and back them. Its kind of frustrating all the same. Anyway bet everyones bored of me now, going to have a quick look at tomorrows possibilities 
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RemainAllHoof
47,812 posts
151 months
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It is important to stick to your rules. The problem with breaking your own tried and tested rules is that you might get rewarded with some success but ultimately lose money in the long run as the rules were there for a reason. The old saying "Rules are meant to be broken" is fine if you add "and trading/betting accounts are meant to be emptied". As for financial trading, well, I'd love to do what I do on a ladder with DOM but the minimum costs for playing with ideas are restrictive. I seem to be good at trading on the sports ladder both pre-kick off and HT, reading both trend and money so I will just continue. Besides, if you work for an institution, you have to wear clothes. Me trading earlier today:  (You won't believe how long it took me to find that picture before I realised I had safe search set to strict. Yes, I am the only single guy in the entire world to have safe search set to strict, but I don't really want to see naked women when searching for work-related material.)
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