Scottish devolution - money to be made?

[dfen5]

Anyone else wondering how they can get in the gold rush of a Scottish Yes vote?

I've no doubt someone will make a lot of money from it. Thoughts, companies to watch etc.

[NailedOn]

Divest your portfolio of anything Scottish.
Post Yes, Scots will likely default on some sovereign and personal debt.
So, post Yes, let asset values slide then buy at rock bottom prices. The uncertainty is already being factored in by the markets so just now it is a question of selling Scots, buying rUK.

[sidicks]

Too many other factors that could affect the above.

Simplest and cleanest way is to bet directly on the result through betfair.

I think it's 2-1 against independence at the moment?

[Simpo Two]

sidicks said:

Simplest and cleanest way is to bet directly on the result through betfair.

Coming from a finance boff that's quite amusing!

[TheRainMaker]

IT bods will make an absolute fortune if a yes vote goes through, think of all the systems which would be needed.

Customs
NHS or SHS as it would be known
Tax
DVLA/ MOT
Army
State Pensions

etc etc

[Efbe]

TheRainMaker said:

IT bods will make an absolute fortune if a yes vote goes through, think of all the systems which would be needed.

Customs
NHS or SHS as it would be known
Tax
DVLA/ MOT
Army
State Pensions

etc etc

essentially any company that has customers in England and Scotland.

[anonymous-user]

We're going to see one hell of a gravy train north of the border, if there's a yes vote.

Those supplying the government will do well, but I think the private sector, more widely in Scotland will take a hit.

[Condi]

NailedOn said:

The uncertainty is already being factored in by the markets so just now it is a question of selling Scots, buying rUK.

Yes/no. It will swing one way or another depending on how the vote goes. If you think the union will split up then sell sterling, if you think it'll stay together buy sterling.

The market has no idea which way it will go, and so the valuations are currently expecting neither one outcome nor the other. There will be some pretty major money made and lost on the day of the vote.

Anybody staying up to trade the FX that evening?!

[sidicks]

Condi said:

Yes/no. It will swing one way or another depending on how the vote goes. If you think the union will split up then sell sterling, if you think it'll stay together buy sterling.

The market has no idea which way it will go, and so the valuations are currently expecting neither one outcome nor the other. There will be some pretty major money made and lost on the day of the vote.

Anybody staying up to trade the FX that evening?!

Why trade FX, vulnerable to many other factors, rather than just bet directly on the outcome?

[Condi]

sidicks said:

Why trade FX, vulnerable to many other factors, rather than just bet directly on the outcome?

More fun.... Also, betting is easy.

[Simpo Two]

Efbe said:

TheRainMaker said:

IT bods will make an absolute fortune if a yes vote goes through, think of all the systems which would be needed.

Customs
NHS or SHS as it would be known
Tax
DVLA/ MOT
Army
State Pensions

etc etc

essentially any company that has customers in England and Scotland.

I fear any independence will end up as an expensive shambles, like rail privatisation. Mini-Kinnocks will multiply and grow fat at the expense of both countries.

[marshalla]

TheRainMaker said:

IT bods will make an absolute fortune if a yes vote goes through, think of all the systems which would be needed.

Customs
NHS or SHS as it would be known
Tax
DVLA/ MOT
Army
State Pensions

etc etc

Cash up front, though.

[DeanR32]

Would a yes vote weaken the pound against the euro/dollar etc?

[ellroy]

Already had an impact on the fx markets in the last few days.

[Shaoxter]

DeanR32 said:

Would a yes vote weaken the pound against the euro/dollar etc?

GBPUSD has fallen from around 1.66 to almost 1.60 this month, can probably expect it to weaken further if a yes vote wins.

[DeanR32]

Maybe an idea to buy up some dollars in anticipation of a yes then?

[Shaoxter]

If you think the yes party are going to win then bet on betfair as people have said. Too many other factors in FX, and the slide in GBP is not just due to the referendum.

Just checked the odds - you can get 3.05 (i.e. bet £100 win £205/get £305 back).

[anonymous-user]

Hypermarkets on the english side of the border selling cheaper sweets, booze, fags and rolly paper and syringes.

[4xTrader]

Big gaps on GBP/USD over the weekend when the yes vote came in higher http://clip2net.com/s/iTaRE4

If they do break away, it will drop just a little

[Condi]

Shaoxter said:

If you think the yes party are going to win then bet on betfair as people have said. Too many other factors in FX, and the slide in GBP is not just due to the referendum.

Just checked the odds - you can get 3.05 (i.e. bet £100 win £205/get £305 back).

If you bet on one outcome then thats all your winnings though, the point of trading the FX is that you can take advantage of the ebbs and flows of the outcome. IE you can change your position throughout as results are released or whatever. Also if things move against you then you can mitigate losses.