Traders: Millions by the minute. BBC i Player

[Hoofy]

[Condi]

Hoofy said:

You often hear that trading is a business which is fine so don't treat it like a fun time at the casino but it's very unlike most businesses especially on the retail side of things. Targets are great for motivation if you're putting cupcakes into boxes. Not so true for trading.

Very good point. The market will offer opportunities, but not equally. Part of the skill of a trader is knowing when to take big positions and when to cut those positions. Run profits, cut losses, which is far easier said than done.


At the end of the day, the only thing driving speculative trading is fear and greed. Its much more easier to close out lots of small profits and be really pleased with the day, only to not have the balls to close out a loss making position and lose far more than you have made.

[Condi]

Pesty said:

Clever chaps in here I was wondering today when I heard about hk protests how would that effect the currency.

Nothing. The fx traders will have known about it from when it started 3 days ago.

There is a reason why people pay £2k a month for Reuters or Bloomberg terminals. Having a few seconds to take a position before other people find out news is vital if you want to spec trade.

[g4ry13]

Pesty said:

First day of buying shares on etoro . One of them has made me 0.3 and another 0.2 profit

Although I'm not sure what it is ive bought yet.

One of them has me in a loss, the other did nothing today. (just fantasy money atm)

But maybe it'd be a bit of fun to have an Etoro trading thread, I was thinking about it earlier as I might just get an account 'invest' $50 in a bunch of people and evaluate their performance. Then possibly start shifting money among them and seeing whether there actually is any money to be made on there. Thinking about it, they should all be useless - but there may be some anomalies.

[Hoofy]

Condi said:

Very good point. The market will offer opportunities, but not equally. Part of the skill of a trader is knowing when to take big positions and when to cut those positions. Run profits, cut losses, which is far easier said than done.


At the end of the day, the only thing driving speculative trading is fear and greed. Its much more easier to close out lots of small profits and be really pleased with the day, only to not have the balls to close out a loss making position and lose far more than you have made.

Ha. So many beginners post on forums how they do that.

[walm]

Dr Jekyll said:

I didn't make anything up, I said the figure 'could be getting on for' and 'possibly approaching'. Perfectly reasonable. I didn't pull the 10% 'make it' out of my arse, on the contrary I pointed out that the 10% reported not to lose money are probably n ot getting rich or anything like it. Who said anything about 'Hookers and Coke'? What does the average balance have to do with anything?

Seriously?
1. Piemash MADE UP the 9/10 figure - it isn't a "reported" figure.
2. Just putting the caveat "possibly approaching" on a made up figure doesn't make it less made up or "perfectly reasonable". You pulled it out of your arse. Plain and simple.
3. Average balance shows the viability between hobby vs. making a living. It's utterly crucial to understanding the relevance of the FACTUAL figure that IG are providing us.

Now if you have some EVIDENCE that 30% of people who day trade and are "not losing money" then your number is "perfectly reasonable" - otherwise you are just spouting random numbers into the ether and hoping they are right.
A little like retail day traders.

[Dr Jekyll]

walm said:

Seriously?
1. Piemash MADE UP the 9/10 figure - it isn't a "reported" figure.
2. Just putting the caveat "possibly approaching" on a made up figure doesn't make it less made up or "perfectly reasonable". You pulled it out of your arse. Plain and simple.
3. Average balance shows the viability between hobby vs. making a living. It's utterly crucial to understanding the relevance of the FACTUAL figure that IG are providing us.

Now if you have some EVIDENCE that 30% of people who day trade and are "not losing money" then your number is "perfectly reasonable" - otherwise you are just spouting random numbers into the ether and hoping they are right.
A little like retail day traders.

1) The 10% figure was given in the programme. The discussion was whether, IF this figure is correct it makes retail trading pointless.
2) There are many hobbies and disciplines where only a small proportion of participants reach there original goals. But those who take it seriously have a better chance than most. I did a lot of evening classes when I was young in which 30+ people started the courses and typically 3 or 4 passed the final exam, but this was about half of those who took the course seriously. And this was across a range of subjects. So as a first approximation as to what a 10% success rate might mean in practice it's perfectly reasonable to use the same ratio.
3) Average balance does indeed indicate whether people are hobbyists or making a living, but I didn't say anyone was making a living did I?

Essentially I said that even a 10% success ratio would not necessarily mean that every individuals chance is as low as 10%. To which you replied that I must be wrong because the average balance is £500. A total non sequitur.

[walm]

Dr Jekyll said:

I did a lot of evening classes when I was young in which 30+ people started the courses and typically 3 or 4 passed the final exam, but this was about half of those who took the course seriously. And this was across a range of subjects. So as a first approximation as to what a 10% success rate might mean in practice it's perfectly reasonable to use the same ratio.

I take it all back.
This is pretty conclusive evidence, I have to admit.

Thanks to Dr Jekyll's (many) evening classes on a range of subjects, it's "perfectly reasonable" to conclude that Piemash has not wasted his £300 on screens and indeed has a 10% chance of "not losing money" while day trading in FX.

In fact, Dr Jekyll's evidence shows it's even better than that.
If you take FX day trading "seriously" then you have a roughly 50% chance of "success" or at least not losing money.

On the other hand perhaps THE PASS RATE ON A HANDFUL OF EVENING CLASSES is completely and utterly irrelevant to FX day trading?

Nah... that's crazy talk.

[Dr Jekyll]

walm said:

Dr Jekyll said:

I did a lot of evening classes when I was young in which 30+ people started the courses and typically 3 or 4 passed the final exam, but this was about half of those who took the course seriously. And this was across a range of subjects. So as a first approximation as to what a 10% success rate might mean in practice it's perfectly reasonable to use the same ratio.

I take it all back.
This is pretty conclusive evidence, I have to admit.

Thanks to Dr Jekyll's (many) evening classes on a range of subjects, it's "perfectly reasonable" to conclude that Piemash has not wasted his £300 on screens and indeed has a 10% chance of "not losing money" while day trading in FX.

In fact, Dr Jekyll's evidence shows it's even better than that.
If you take FX day trading "seriously" then you have a roughly 50% chance of "success" or at least not losing money.

On the other hand perhaps THE PASS RATE ON A HANDFUL OF EVENING CLASSES is completely and utterly irrelevant to FX day trading?

Nah... that's crazy talk.

I DID NOT SAY THAT PIREMASH HAS NOT WASTED HIS MONEY. (IN FACT I THINK HE PROBABLY HAS. BUT GOOD LUCK TO HIM ANYWAY.)

I CERTAINLY DID NOT SAY HE HAS A 50% CHANCE OF BREAKING EVEN OR EVEN A 10% CHANCE.

I DID NOT SAY THAT THE PASS RATE ON EVENING CLASSES IS A GUIDE TO FAX DAY TRADING. I SAID THAT THE PASS RATE ON STUDYING A HANDFUL OF VARIED SUBJECTS IS A REASONABLE FIRST APPROXIMATION TO THE PASS RATE ON STUDYING ANOTHER. AS OPPOSED TO BEING A RANDOM NUMBER PLUCKED OUT OF THE AIR.

I SAID THAT IF IF IF IF IF THE 10% FIGURE (NOT MINE) WAS ACCURATE THEN IT'S REASONABLE TO SUPPOSE A WELL PREPARED TRADER HAS A CHANCE OF DOING BETTER. CERTAINLY MORE REASONABLE THAN ASSUMING THAT ALL TRADERS WILL ALL LOSE MONEY EQUALLY IRRESPECTIVE OF HOW MUCH THEY KNOW OR HOW DISCIPLINED THEY ARE.

YOU PERSIST IN PRETENDING I'VE SAID THINGS I HAVEN'T SAID, IN ORDER TO CALL ME AN IMBECILE. WAS I MARRIED TO YOU ONCE?

[walm]

I think you may have accidentally left your capslock key on.

Sorry for winding you up.
While there was an element of sarcasm to my posts, I never called you an imbecile!
("Crazy" perhaps... and sorry about that.)

Genuine LOL at this though...

Mr Hyde said:

YOU PERSIST IN PRETENDING I'VE SAID THINGS I HAVEN'T SAID... WAS I MARRIED TO YOU ONCE?

[piemash]

walm said:

I think you may have accidentally left your capslock key on.

Sorry for winding you up.
While there was an element of sarcasm to my posts, I never called you an imbecile!
("Crazy" perhaps... and sorry about that.)

Genuine LOL at this though...

Mr Hyde said:

YOU PERSIST IN PRETENDING I'VE SAID THINGS I HAVEN'T SAID... WAS I MARRIED TO YOU ONCE?

74.83% of what people talk is bulls%*t and that is an actual fact!

In all seriousness, it doesn't matter what the percentage is.....it's about "perceived" percentages. Most people will say you are more likely to fail than succeed if you engage in FX trading as a newbie..... that's fair enough.....anything good worth having requires hard work and discipline, and the fact that FX trading success appears to be elusive actually adds to the appeal.

As for wasting my £300.....not at all :-) I will be getting training/experience on a setup similar to what most pro traders use...ok I'm just guessing that.....but if I had to bet on people who trade FX on one screen being successful, vs people who trade on 6/8 screens being successful, I would put my money on the group with the multiple screens. The reason being that Forex trading is now so accessible, that anyone can do it on their phone or iPad.....people just open up accounts and "play" with their money, guessing on what will go up and what will go down. In contrast, if you've invested in a pro (maybe semi-pro) setup, I believe you are more likely to take it more seriously, invest more time in technical analysis (after all, why have the extra screens if you're not maximizing their usage?) and will have more of an edge, over those trading off their ipad mini.

besides, I've wasted a lot more than £300 on worse things in the past!.... and in all honesty, if I couldn't afford to lose £300 on an improved PC setup, I really shouldn't be Forex trading in the first place :-)

[Hoofy]

TBH I don't think you're taking trading seriously enough.



Also, I'd wager that of the traders who wear red braces vs those who trade at home wearing jeans and a stained t-shirt, those wearing red braces are more successful, so I think it's a good idea to visit M&S for a small purchase.

Edited by Hoofy on Tuesday 30th September 16:50

[Hoofy]

Show the market who is boss!

[piemash]

Hoofy said:

TBH I don't think you're taking trading seriously enough.



Also, I'd wager that of the traders who wear red braces vs those who trade at home wearing jeans and a stained t-shirt, those wearing red braces are more successful, so I think it's a good idea to visit M&S for a small purchase.

Edited by Hoofy on Tuesday 30th September 16:50

haha quality!!!

I bet that traders favorite film is the Matrix :-)

[twinturboz]

Hoofy said:

Show the market who is boss!

Shocking advice!! Piemash don't listen to this guy think he last traded in the 2000's. Red braces went out of fashion in 2008 it's all about risk adverse grey now.

Don't believe me ? I cite Ed Watson from Debenhams

Mr. Watson said:

Our sales figures show that bright red braces first went into decline in 2008 when so many banks collapsed.
The decline became even more severe the following year as more people began to realise that this was not a temporary blip and the reasons for the crash began to emerge.
Suddenly flamboyance and risk taking became bad words, and City workers, eager to distance themselves from that culture, switched to conservative colours instead.
Now our two top selling braces are both traditional grey - one is a light grey with pin dots and the other dark grey with subtle diagonal stripes.
The message they send out is clear - it is one of trust, caution, and a highly conservative approach to handling money.
Our next most popular colour for braces is beige. We're assuming that these are now the braces of choice when today's bankers really want to let their hair down."

[Hoofy]

twinturboz said:

Hoofy said:

Show the market who is boss!

Shocking advice!! Piemash don't listen to this guy think he last traded in the 2000's. Red braces went out of fashion in 2008 it's all about risk adverse grey now.

Don't believe me ? I cite Ed Watson from Debenhams

Mr. Watson said:

Our sales figures show that bright red braces first went into decline in 2008 when so many banks collapsed.
The decline became even more severe the following year as more people began to realise that this was not a temporary blip and the reasons for the crash began to emerge.
Suddenly flamboyance and risk taking became bad words, and City workers, eager to distance themselves from that culture, switched to conservative colours instead.
Now our two top selling braces are both traditional grey - one is a light grey with pin dots and the other dark grey with subtle diagonal stripes.
The message they send out is clear - it is one of trust, caution, and a highly conservative approach to handling money.
Our next most popular colour for braces is beige. We're assuming that these are now the braces of choice when today's bankers really want to let their hair down."

Given that 92.3% of traders fail and most traders wear grey braces, I think I know what colour braces I'm buying.

[TraderGuy]

piemash said:

Hoofy said:

TBH I don't think you're taking trading seriously enough.



Also, I'd wager that of the traders who wear red braces vs those who trade at home wearing jeans and a stained t-shirt, those wearing red braces are more successful, so I think it's a good idea to visit M&S for a small purchase.

Edited by Hoofy on Tuesday 30th September 16:50

haha quality!!!

I bet that traders favorite film is the Matrix :-)

I was thinking Superman 3. In fact, High Frequency Traders make their money just like Gus Gorman (late Richard Pryor) did in that movie. Lol.

[twinturboz]

Awesome, if only I had that magic pen that would allow me to edit my p&l today would be a much happier end to the day.

[ATG]

walm said:

She was a regular hedge fund manager and by the looks of a relatively small operation - with $200m she would have a ridiculous sum left over from just the "2" part of 2 and 20.
Plus she had been going since the 90s which implies a VERY long history as a fund - average lives are sub 10 year mostly, I believe.

IMHO $200m is perfectly legit and offers a very very nice life if you hold onto it for a few years.
Sub $100m is a problem.

200 after running the business for that length of time is small. It sounded like she was a value investor, so pretty much a conventional fund manager, probably with longterm investors in her fund. Good for her. But is that representative of a "trader"?

Edited by ATG on Tuesday 30th September 21:15

[g4ry13]

hah...no love for my Etoro idea and it seems someone's gone and posted a pic of my porn setup

On my Etoro dummy i'm currently +3% on one trader, although the daft cow has been buying all the way down so I seem to have 7 open trades on one FX pair (all in loss) and the other trader is also 'losing' me a little. I might just check it in a week or 2 time and see how they've done with my virtual money.