Traders: Millions by the minute. BBC i Player

[pongo1]

Well like a couple of other people - I've joined solely based on this thread. Given the fact that I drive a Volvo V70 I'm not sure whether I'm actually allowed on such a high octane site :-).

In terms of the second program - you can already see the thousands of new "traders" signing up based on what they saw on the gogglebox. I actually thought that there was a good spread of retailing types represented and also think that it did not intentionally glamorise trading for a living. However the people that are now jumping on the trading bandwagon are probably not the sort of people who realise the effort involved and only saw the bling. I don't know why but seeing these 2 guys "Justco" reminds me of "Jordan" the model. She also slept with a footballer as a way to get rich quick!!

I'm also a trader (ex IT guy by the way too) who took it upon myself to take up trading a few years ago. I won't tell you whether I'm the antique dealer or the six pack guy but I'm a mix of both I suspect :-)

Did a little research on our friend Justyn and found this - lets see who spots the similarities

Firstly here's the equity curve the boys presented to the footballer on the show (sorry about the poor quality) and then the FxBook profile of a trader called justy187 (trading since 2013 on a demo account).

Picture = http://thumbsnap.com/sc/Kax8kERA.png?0930

link to fxbook = http://www.myfxbook.com/members/juzzy187/mt4-99965...

Things to note:
Demo account - remember missus kittens runs on demo too
Drawdown 18% - seems a little odd considering he only risks 3% per trade :-). My own runs @ 1.85% as an example.

I'm sure some of the more stat minded people can estrapolate more but these little things speak volumes to me.

Those who have read (and lived) "outliers" will know how to point themselves down the right path if you want to trade for a living. My path was bloody long!!!

Cheers

Edited by pongo1 on Tuesday 30th September 22:54

Edited by pongo1 on Tuesday 30th September 22:55

[Condi]

pongo1 said:

Those who have read (and lived) "outliers" will know how to point themselves down the right path if you want to trade for a living. My path was bloody long!!!

I thought the easiest way of learning to trade was to learn with someone elses money?

[TraderGuy]

ATG said:

walm said:

She was a regular hedge fund manager and by the looks of a relatively small operation - with $200m she would have a ridiculous sum left over from just the "2" part of 2 and 20.
Plus she had been going since the 90s which implies a VERY long history as a fund - average lives are sub 10 year mostly, I believe.

IMHO $200m is perfectly legit and offers a very very nice life if you hold onto it for a few years.
Sub $100m is a problem.

200 after running the business for that length of time is small. It sounded like she was a value investor, so pretty much a conventional fund manager, probably with longterm investors in her fund. Good for her. But is that representative of a "trader"?

Edited by ATG on Tuesday 30th September 21:15

I think $200million is ok, and even on the fees, of 2% she would be doing ok. Saying that, you never know she may have a handful of few influential friends she met through the charity scene and just tries to get a return for them. She could have 1000 customers, or 40 you just dont know. In the hedgie scene, its not just about getting a return, its also acquiring customers/retaining them.

[walm]

ATG said:

200 after running the business for that length of time is small. It sounded like she was a value investor, so pretty much a conventional fund manager, probably with longterm investors in her fund. Good for her. But is that representative of a "trader"?

I think they tried to show almost the full spectrum:
- Pit guys.
- Scalpers.
- Training the "traders".
- HFT
- Algos/quants.
- Lady on the sofa.

You couldn't do all that and not show a more traditional hedge fund too.
She is far more reflective of the bulk of the AUM in that industry - ex-quants.

Everyone seems to think that hedge funds are some secretive bunch with un-knowable tricks of the trade but as you point out many are simply traditional value lead fund managers who happen to go short too.

[pongo1]

Condi said:

I thought the easiest way of learning to trade was to learn with someone elses money?

That would be great if you start life off in a financial institution and learned the ropes that way!!

I'm not a gambling man but if you would like to go to all your family and friends (or innocent strangers) and ask them for seed money I'll happily take the other side of your trades :-)

[ATG]

walm said:

I think they tried to show almost the full spectrum:
- Pit guys.
- Scalpers.
- Training the "traders".
- HFT
- Algos/quants.
- Lady on the sofa.

You couldn't do all that and not show a more traditional hedge fund too.
She is far more reflective of the bulk of the AUM in that industry - ex-quants.

Everyone seems to think that hedge funds are some secretive bunch with un-knowable tricks of the trade but as you point out many are simply traditional value lead fund managers who happen to go short too.

As said, I only saw the first programme, but it sounds like they didn't have any investment bank traders which is surely a colossal omission? On the hedge fund side, getting a global macro manager to discuss their approach might have given people a bit more insight into the range of strategies and thinking in play rather than talk to what sounded like a long only value manager.

Bottom line is they didn't get a single major buy or sell side institution to open their doors, so they ended up talking to what I'd consider a pretty unrepresentative group. For all of that though, the individual interviews themselves were pretty good, particularly with the CBOT traders. I started out sitting on a fixed income desk with open lines to our brokers at LIFFE and CME and I now sit next to a base metals desk so I've got a soft spot for the background noise of open out cry trading and the loons who can do it. "Uhm ... fast market" says the broker over the sound of a riot breaking out.

[walm]

ATG said:

As said, I only saw the first programme, but it sounds like they didn't have any investment bank traders which is surely a colossal omission? On the hedge fund side, getting a global macro manager to discuss their approach might have given people a bit more insight into the range of strategies and thinking in play rather than talk to what sounded like a long only value manager.

Bottom line is they didn't get a single major buy or sell side institution to open their doors, so they ended up talking to what I'd consider a pretty unrepresentative group. For all of that though, the individual interviews themselves were pretty good, particularly with the CBOT traders. I started out sitting on a fixed income desk with open lines to our brokers at LIFFE and CME and I now sit next to a base metals desk so I've got a soft spot for the background noise of open out cry trading and the loons who can do it. "Uhm ... fast market" says the broker over the sound of a riot breaking out.

Not surprised that none of the banks opened their doors! Although I agree - big omission.
I don't think the Global Macro guy would be particularly representative.
As I said, I still think L/S is more traditional and represents a big chunk of AUM.

[Condi]

ATG said:

I now sit next to a base metals desk so I've got a soft spot for the background noise of open out cry trading and the loons who can do it. "Uhm ... fast market" says the broker over the sound of a riot breaking out.

What do you trade then?

I would love to visit some open outcry pits, but the only place left which has pits for ag's is CBOT and access is so controlled I'd never get in without changing jobs. LIFFE's floors and pits are now banks of servers and soulless meeting rooms. Very sad.

[4xTrader]

I found this Ted Talk interesting on algo trading http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_slavin_how_algorith...

[ATG]

Condi said:

What do you trade then?

Not a trader. Used to do fixed income, fx and rates strategy. Did some quant algo stuff for an long short equity fund. Started working on trading systems. Now write risk mgmt software for a commodities business.

[Shnozz]

I love the way anyone new to "trading" (and I use that term loosely) has to spunk a fortune on 84 screens in a spare room (or their bedroom). Talk about all the gear and no..

Half the time I think it's some weird way to self-justify a load of tech gadgets on the pretence they are tools of the trade.

[Hoofy]

Shnozz said:

I love the way anyone new to "trading" (and I use that term loosely) has to spunk a fortune on 84 screens in a spare room (or their bedroom). Talk about all the gear and no..

Half the time I think it's some weird way to self-justify a load of tech gadgets on the pretence they are tools of the trade.

Rewind to the 1980s and anyone setting up a small business would buy a fax machine before they've taken their first order.

[Pesty]

g4ry13 said:

Very wise picking a bunch of them, i'd do the same with limited information. When you signed up did have an option to go for copy all trades or copy all new trades? ie. do you have any positions open as soon as you opened your account?

I had a quick look at the people you're copying. So the good news is that none of them have any whopping giant losses which they're hiding away in their open trades.

Jorge Cruz would concern me a little because he's pissing around for a few points and after spread and perhaps not getting filled at the exact same time you may struggle to make money.

Apart from that, I think the other two do look like reasonable small bets and you can always pull out whenever you like. My biggest concern is their position sizing. I don't know if you can scale it back compared to them. But you really shouldn't be making 500% gain on a trade. Maybe i'm reading this incorrectly and the gain is a % of the risk rather than of their account. Some of the other guys are yielding 60% gain on a trade and even 30% is too high. Whilst they may be getting into good positions, the risk of losing 80%+ in a trade is there and if you lose that of your account then it's pretty tough to come back from.

im $10 down thanks to jorge

[g4ry13]

That Maria is one shady lady. I'd not bet any real money on her. She's got me in 17 open positions, she keeps buying the thing when it drops and trades for a few points. Lost me 10% of my account and moves her stops. When she gets a slightly critical comment on her wall she deletes it within seconds. I'm not impressed with her.

I started copying this guy ChrisLawlor - dummy money as well. He doesn't take that many trades and i'll see how he goes. 4exPirate put me in a small loss today but I can accept that. Less of a gambler than that Maria421 sneaky snake.

[Pesty]

g4ry13 said:

That Maria is one shady lady. I'd not bet any real money on her. She's got me in 17 open positions, she keeps buying the thing when it drops and trades for a few points. Lost me 10% of my account and moves her stops. When she gets a slightly critical comment on her wall she deletes it within seconds. I'm not impressed with her.

I started copying this guy ChrisLawlor - dummy money as well. He doesn't take that many trades and i'll see how he goes. 4exPirate put me in a small loss today but I can accept that. Less of a gambler than that Maria421 sneaky snake.

perhapsa etoro thread would be good as you suggested earlier.

i stopped copying jorge

Edited by Pesty on Thursday 2nd October 21:12

[g4ry13]

Pesty said:

g4ry13 said:

That Maria is one shady lady. I'd not bet any real money on her. She's got me in 17 open positions, she keeps buying the thing when it drops and trades for a few points. Lost me 10% of my account and moves her stops. When she gets a slightly critical comment on her wall she deletes it within seconds. I'm not impressed with her.

I started copying this guy ChrisLawlor - dummy money as well. He doesn't take that many trades and i'll see how he goes. 4exPirate put me in a small loss today but I can accept that. Less of a gambler than that Maria421 sneaky snake.

perhapsa etoro thread would be good as you suggested earlier.

i stopped copying jorge

Edited by Pesty on Thursday 2nd October 21:12

I don't know if there's interest and if it really has legs on it. At this present moment I don't think i'd feel comfortable investing any substantial sums of money in people from what I have seen. I am currently copying Maria421, ChrisLawlor and 4exPirate. I may look for some others to scope out. But one thing I have worked out is the % gain figures are meaningless. At least in terms of ROI.

In short: The people i'd be looking for are low leverage traders, who don't use a large % of their account. Who don't sit on sizeable losing positions, capable of taking a loss, profits from positions > losses in losing trades, trades on a somewhat regular basis, an overall long term upward moving equity curve.

I think that's mainly my criteria - perhaps one or two other things I have forgotten but it's a good basis. You can go for the high leverage guys, but that's just total gambling when you have someone risking 10% of your account on a trade. It may be a good strategy if you want to put a small amount in, build it up with some high leverage and then switch money over to lower leverage people.

[Simpo Two]

Hoofy said:

Rewind to the 1980s and anyone setting up a small business would buy a fax machine before they've taken their first order.

Indeed - you needed a fax machine to send out estimates/quotes quickly. My phone/fax was £625 IIRC and the Panasonic was £900+!

But we woz 'appy.

[g4ry13]

I'll start Etoro thread later and see how much interest there is.

Quick update on the dummy account:

Maria421 had me in about 17 losing positions. She's a weird 'trader' - I logged in and maybe she got really lucky. But I have 18 open trades with her, mostly in good profit and i'm currently seeing about +50% ROI on account. It's been a big profitable day for her, but that is very concerning because I think I could have been on the other side of it easily.

ChrisLawlor (mr low leverage) is showing me +1.5% ROI currently. Nothing 'that' exciting, but it's impressive if on a consistent basis because I can't see myself losing 10%+ of an account in one trade with him.

4exPirate has done nothing today I don't think.

[Pesty]

I've invested $100 with her she's made me $30 actual dollars profit but lost with Jorge so after a week with $244 actual dollars invested I'm up on $249 lol

[g4ry13]

I was never sure about Jorge to start with. Maria does worry me tbh. ChrisLawlor has been good so far (in the sense that he doesn't seem to use huge leverage).

I'll open a thread about this later. Hopefully we can get some other people to trial it - even if it's dummy accounts and find some decent people to invest in. Then next year we'll be able to retire

It may not sound like much, but 2% ROI in a week is bloody good. Obviously on that amount you're not going to get rich fast but it pays a lot more than the bank!