Tesco shares

[gregf40]

gaz1234 said:

I'm up 30% time to sell?

Only if you want to miss the rise to 300. I reckon we will be back to 300 before the Summer.

[twinturboz]

gaz1234 said:

I'm up 30% time to sell?

If the trade is working in your direction stick with it. Just use a stop limit that you keep moving up with the trade, let it give you a reason to exit.

[gaz1234]

gregf40 said:

Only if you want to miss the rise to 300. I reckon we will be back to 300 before the Summer.

Guessing?

[gaz1234]

twinturboz said:

If the trade is working in your direction stick with it. Just use a stop limit that you keep moving up with the trade, let it give you a reason to exit.

Stop limit?

[gregf40]

gaz1234 said:

gregf40 said:

Only if you want to miss the rise to 300. I reckon we will be back to 300 before the Summer.

Guessing?

Yes - that's how I make all my investment decisions.

[walm]

gregf40 said:

gaz1234 said:

gregf40 said:

Only if you want to miss the rise to 300. I reckon we will be back to 300 before the Summer.

Guessing?

Yes - that's how I make all my investment decisions.

You can be a facetious as you like but it would be interesting to see how you derived that price target?

What is your long term margin for the UK business?
Is this year the trough?
Where does it stabilise?

How much more space do you have them closing?

What multiple are you using?
Earnings?
EBITA?
EBITDAR?

How do you adjust for the leases?

Which companies are you benchmarking?
Just SBRY and MRW or do you look abroad to maybe Casino, Carrefour, Delhaize and maybe Colruyt?

What valuation do you put on the international assets?

Or did you just pull it out of your arse?

[Ean218]

walm said:

You can be a facetious as you like but it would be interesting to see how you derived that price target?

.........

Or did you just pull it out of your arse?

Are you seriously suggesting that you can actually work out a future share price based on that lot?

It is all about sentiment and emotion, even for the pros, despite sending out "analysis" with all the puff you've said is so useful. Do all those things you've just espoused explain why the price dropped so much in the first place?

If it was that easy the managed funds would all be rolling in it, they're not.

[ringram]

photosnob said:

Sold mine today. The cash will come in handy for a little venture I'm looking into. God knows if it was a smart move or not, but I won't lose sleep over it now. Brought at 187 sold at 226. I think that's acceptable for a few months and my first ever venture into shares.

I was young once too. Bought TW. at 0.16p and BARC at 0.54p

Sold both for a 40% gain thinking I was great. Turns out I was a fool and gambling.

As Buffet says, his favourite holding period is for ever. Both the above shares are many hundreds of percent higher today and have paid out many years of dividends.

Suffice to say I no longer trade/gamble etc. But buy struck down shares that I believe are well undervalued and hold them "for ever".

http://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors...

[GTIR]

photosnob said:

Sold mine today. The cash will come in handy for a little venture I'm looking into. God knows if it was a smart move or not, but I won't lose sleep over it now. Brought at 187 sold at 226. I think that's acceptable for a few months and my first ever venture into shares.

£2.35 today.

Lol.

[walm]

Ean218 said:

Are you seriously suggesting that you can actually work out a future share price based on that lot?

It is all about sentiment and emotion, even for the pros, despite sending out "analysis" with all the puff you've said is so useful. Do all those things you've just espoused explain why the price dropped so much in the first place?

If it was that easy the managed funds would all be rolling in it, they're not.

Yes - all of those things explain the drop.
Profits and earnings dropped off a cliff and the share price followed suit.

Of course, sentiment plays a very important part but FUNDAMENTALS tend to drive 95% of the mid-large caps of which Tesco is one.

It is frankly elementary financial analysis but it isn't easy otherwise the pros would indeed be rolling in it.
Even the very best get it wrong - take a bow Mr Buffett.

If you don't want to do any work and actually read and understand their financials and just take an emotive punt that's fine but being facetious about it makes you look like you are just kidding yourself about your investing skills.
(Not you but the guy with the dice.)

[GTIR]

GTIR said:

photosnob said:

Sold mine today. The cash will come in handy for a little venture I'm looking into. God knows if it was a smart move or not, but I won't lose sleep over it now. Brought at 187 sold at 226. I think that's acceptable for a few months and my first ever venture into shares.

£2.35 today.

Lol.

£2.41!

[gregf40]

walm said:

Yes - all of those things explain the drop.
Profits and earnings dropped off a cliff and the share price followed suit.

Of course, sentiment plays a very important part but FUNDAMENTALS tend to drive 95% of the mid-large caps of which Tesco is one.

It is frankly elementary financial analysis but it isn't easy otherwise the pros would indeed be rolling in it.
Even the very best get it wrong - take a bow Mr Buffett.

If you don't want to do any work and actually read and understand their financials and just take an emotive punt that's fine but being facetious about it makes you look like you are just kidding yourself about your investing skills.
(Not you but the guy with the dice.)

This drop was driven by fear - not fundamentals. The investigation into profit manipulation terrified the market.

The drop in profits doesn't come close to explaining a circa 50% drop in market cap (£15bn wiped off).

[walm]

gregf40 said:

walm said:

Yes - all of those things explain the drop.
Profits and earnings dropped off a cliff and the share price followed suit.

Of course, sentiment plays a very important part but FUNDAMENTALS tend to drive 95% of the mid-large caps of which Tesco is one.

It is frankly elementary financial analysis but it isn't easy otherwise the pros would indeed be rolling in it.
Even the very best get it wrong - take a bow Mr Buffett.

If you don't want to do any work and actually read and understand their financials and just take an emotive punt that's fine but being facetious about it makes you look like you are just kidding yourself about your investing skills.
(Not you but the guy with the dice.)

This drop was driven by fear - not fundamentals. The investigation into profit manipulation terrified the market.

The drop in profits doesn't come close to explaining a circa 50% drop in market cap (£15bn wiped off).

Are you serious????

Jesus Christ - what do you think professional investors do all day?????

I will go with the absolute most simple valuation ratio that anyone looks at: price to earnings.

EPS expectations for FY15 and FY16 dropped from about 30p at the beginning of 2014 to 10-11p today.

It MORE than explains the drop.

Do you think investment banks employ analysts and pay them millions to completely ignore the financial fundamentals of companies????????
This isn't AIM.

[GTIR]

And a 38% rise in three months.

ETA Yay!

[gregf40]

walm said:

Are you serious????

Jesus Christ - what do you think professional investors do all day?????

I will go with the absolute most simple valuation ratio that anyone looks at: price to earnings.

EPS expectations for FY15 and FY16 dropped from about 30p at the beginning of 2014 to 10-11p today.

It MORE than explains the drop.

Do you think investment banks employ analysts and pay them millions to completely ignore the financial fundamentals of companies????????
This isn't AIM.

Without taking into account the value of assets in the business - P/E is a completely irrelevant number.

So no, it doesn't 'MORE than explain the drop'. But thanks for being so patronising.

[walm]

gregf40 said:

Without taking into account the value of assets in the business - P/E is a completely irrelevant number.

So no, it doesn't 'MORE than explain the drop'. But thanks for being so patronising.

PE might have been irrelevant to AMZN when it made no earnings but for bricks and mortar the value of those bricks and mortar is their ability to generate cash flows (AKA earnings if you cut through the accounting shenanigans).

You might argue there is some property value there which USED to provide a nice cushion.
Unfortunately the company has been working like crazy to off load that property BUT NO ONE WANTS IT.
You can't turn it into housing and the only other buyers are other supermarkets - which is even worse than just keeping it on 1% margin.

So - how do you get your 300p price target for the summer?

[marky1]

walm said:

Are you serious????

Jesus Christ - what do you think professional investors do all day?????

I will go with the absolute most simple valuation ratio that anyone looks at: price to earnings.

EPS expectations for FY15 and FY16 dropped from about 30p at the beginning of 2014 to 10-11p today.

It MORE than explains the drop.

Do you think investment banks employ analysts and pay them millions to completely ignore the financial fundamentals of companies????????
This isn't AIM.

So what explains the rally. Why did it go from 1.70 to 2.40. It's not just about crunching numbers. Sentiment as a huge influence. You'd be surprised how useless some of these banks are.

[anonymous-user]

Focusing on having a plan and sticking is a much better use of energy than trying to predict where the price will go. On the time-frames most are looking at here, a technical assessment will most probably out-perform a fundamental one.

Few people know that we're psychologically designed to 'snatch profit' i.e. become risk-averse in 'good' situations, see loss aversion for further details. The fear of losing what we have is extremely powerful. Having at least a good idea of where you're looking to take some / all profit BEFORE you enter a position is an essential thing to have.

[cashmax]

walm said:

gregf40 said:

Without taking into account the value of assets in the business - P/E is a completely irrelevant number.

So no, it doesn't 'MORE than explain the drop'. But thanks for being so patronising.

PE might have been irrelevant to AMZN when it made no earnings but for bricks and mortar the value of those bricks and mortar is their ability to generate cash flows (AKA earnings if you cut through the accounting shenanigans).

You might argue there is some property value there which USED to provide a nice cushion.
Unfortunately the company has been working like crazy to off load that property BUT NO ONE WANTS IT.
You can't turn it into housing and the only other buyers are other supermarkets - which is even worse than just keeping it on 1% margin.

So - how do you get your 300p price target for the summer?

Classic example of two people who have no idea what they are talking about. One of them knows that and is happy to make a prediction based on gut feeling, whilst the other thinks that 10th grade maths is all that's required to predict the future of a business. If only it was that simple..

[walm]

cashmax said:

Classic example of two people who have no idea what they are talking about. One of them knows that and is happy to make a prediction based on gut feeling, whilst the other thinks that 10th grade maths is all that's required to predict the future of a business. If only it was that simple..

Who pissed on your chips so early in the morning?

If you knew what I do all day (with reasonable success) I doubt you would be slinging mud so aggressively.

Nothing wrong with investing with your gut but unfortunately for me I have to do something known as due diligence (which in fairness rarely involves any particularly complicated maths).

Did the PE guys who helped you with your MBO just invest with their gut or did they take a look at your books?