Discussion
Intuition (AKA gut feeling) is controversial when it comes to expertise. Can an experienced surgeon spot a serious condition from relatively superficial symptoms, for example?
The great Daniel Kahneman is skeptical of expert intuition, and is quite convinced it can't occur with 'stock picking'.
I'm not so sure. Intuition is fundamentally - the definition I like - pattern recognition and quick feedback. I certainly think this occurs on lower time frame trading and that one can develop intuition.
The great Daniel Kahneman is skeptical of expert intuition, and is quite convinced it can't occur with 'stock picking'.
I'm not so sure. Intuition is fundamentally - the definition I like - pattern recognition and quick feedback. I certainly think this occurs on lower time frame trading and that one can develop intuition.
Just in case anyone is wondering about the TSCO/SBRY/MRW weakness today.
These are the kind of fundamentals that people who don't know what they are talking about, like me, follow.
Ignore the black line (Waitrose) - it's the yellow one that matters.
Now one swallow doesn't make a summer (it just gets her off the washing up for a while) but if that yellow line remains below zero - it is going to be VERY hard for any of the Big 4 to post positive LFLs and without a positive LFL margins come under further pressure.
These are the kind of fundamentals that people who don't know what they are talking about, like me, follow.
Ignore the black line (Waitrose) - it's the yellow one that matters.
Now one swallow doesn't make a summer (it just gets her off the washing up for a while) but if that yellow line remains below zero - it is going to be VERY hard for any of the Big 4 to post positive LFLs and without a positive LFL margins come under further pressure.
walm said:
Just in case anyone is wondering about the TSCO/SBRY/MRW weakness today.
These are the kind of fundamentals that people who don't know what they are talking about, like me, follow.
Ignore the black line (Waitrose) - it's the yellow one that matters.
Now one swallow doesn't make a summer (it just gets her off the washing up for a while) but if that yellow line remains below zero - it is going to be VERY hard for any of the Big 4 to post positive LFLs and without a positive LFL margins come under further pressure.
If anyone was suggesting fundamentals don't matter then yes they are talking rubbish. I don't use them simply because in a short term view they don't seem to help my strategy, plus if your technical based then ideally the charts reflect the fundamentals at least in theory. These are the kind of fundamentals that people who don't know what they are talking about, like me, follow.
Ignore the black line (Waitrose) - it's the yellow one that matters.
Now one swallow doesn't make a summer (it just gets her off the washing up for a while) but if that yellow line remains below zero - it is going to be VERY hard for any of the Big 4 to post positive LFLs and without a positive LFL margins come under further pressure.
There's a multitude of strategies out there, you just have to find what works for you. Purely from the charts and not even looking at any fundamentals I think I said a few weeks back when the share price was around 215 that we might try for 247 before retracing back to around 200, not saying for one second that I have that bang on technicals aren't an exact science but we seemed to top out around 242 and remains to be seen if we retrace to around the 200 mark or not.
jonah35 said:
Could they just crumble to a pound and get another profit warning as they have to cut margins and aldi keeps growing? Could the reduced division mean loss of appetite from investors?
Why would they go up?
What a difference 6 months makes.... Even with the latest news. People simply do not stop going into Tesco.Why would they go up?
catfood12 said:
jonah35 said:
Could they just crumble to a pound and get another profit warning as they have to cut margins and aldi keeps growing? Could the reduced division mean loss of appetite from investors?
Why would they go up?
What a difference 6 months makes.... Even with the latest news. People simply do not stop going into Tesco.Why would they go up?
So I'm thinking of reinvesting my Tesco's profit in VW shares. Down to 105 Euro today, back up at 111 Euro at present. The current problems will all pass, and any liability for future US litigation will so far in th future as to no affect share price in the short to medium term. Tell me I'm wrong.
catfood12 said:
So I'm thinking of reinvesting my Tesco's profit in VW shares. Down to 105 Euro today, back up at 111 Euro at present. The current problems will all pass, and any liability for future US litigation will so far in th future as to no affect share price in the short to medium term. Tell me I'm wrong.
Assuming you are uk based how are you going to handle the currency risk? catfood12 said:
So I'm thinking of reinvesting my Tesco's profit in VW shares. Down to 105 Euro today, back up at 111 Euro at present. The current problems will all pass, and any liability for future US litigation will so far in th future as to no affect share price in the short to medium term. Tell me I'm wrong.
1. What tescos profit? They near as dammit hit a 10 year low yesterday and you were telling us how wonderful they were in April at 250p - because "people always go to Tesco". 168p now, down 33%.2. You're wrong. Everything you wrote was true on Monday and the stock is down ANOTHER 20% since then. Mostly because VW announced that it was 11m cars and a global problem not just 5m. People who have bought those cars have lost real money - they will win their class actions. The regulator WILL fine them. As more info comes out as to what sort of numbers these might be that WILL effect the stock price instantly, as per yesterday. If you believe in the fundamental valuation of anything then it is simply impossible to value VW right now. It is very possible that the reputational damage will lose them so much market share that they never make money again - profits are very thin at automakers and the fixed costs are a very high % of sales, it doesn't take much of a volume drop to push them into losses.
Stock down -6% as I type.
walm said:
1. What tescos profit? They near as dammit hit a 10 year low yesterday and you were telling us how wonderful they were in April at 250p - because "people always go to Tesco". 168p now, down 33%.
2. You're wrong. Everything you wrote was true on Monday and the stock is down ANOTHER 20% since then. Mostly because VW announced that it was 11m cars and a global problem not just 5m. People who have bought those cars have lost real money - they will win their class actions. The regulator WILL fine them. As more info comes out as to what sort of numbers these might be that WILL effect the stock price instantly, as per yesterday. If you believe in the fundamental valuation of anything then it is simply impossible to value VW right now. It is very possible that the reputational damage will lose them so much market share that they never make money again - profits are very thin at automakers and the fixed costs are a very high % of sales, it doesn't take much of a volume drop to push them into losses.
Stock down -6% as I type.
I'm not in it for their profit and hope of divis, I cashed in Tesco at close to that high, and made money on the deal. I think the same move can be performed on VW. I note your point that VW cannot be valued at the present, yes, TSCO was in a similar similar position the height of their dramas. The car makers work on massive volumes now, that is the source of their profit, as you say they have huge fixed costs, as I said for Tesco, people won't stop buying VWs. They will be fined, we both agree on that. I think that it will be too far in the future to affect share prices for the next 6-9 months.2. You're wrong. Everything you wrote was true on Monday and the stock is down ANOTHER 20% since then. Mostly because VW announced that it was 11m cars and a global problem not just 5m. People who have bought those cars have lost real money - they will win their class actions. The regulator WILL fine them. As more info comes out as to what sort of numbers these might be that WILL effect the stock price instantly, as per yesterday. If you believe in the fundamental valuation of anything then it is simply impossible to value VW right now. It is very possible that the reputational damage will lose them so much market share that they never make money again - profits are very thin at automakers and the fixed costs are a very high % of sales, it doesn't take much of a volume drop to push them into losses.
Stock down -6% as I type.
I also fancy keeping an eye on some suppliers to VW, Bosch etc, as they too may take a hit in the short term on the back of VW woes.
Just my opinion, I'm not investing your money, so don't fret to much.
catfood12 said:
I'm not in it for their profit and hope of divis, I cashed in Tesco at close to that high, and made money on the deal. I think the same move can be performed on VW. I note your point that VW cannot be valued at the present, yes, TSCO was in a similar similar position the height of their dramas. The car makers work on massive volumes now, that is the source of their profit, as you say they have huge fixed costs, as I said for Tesco, people won't stop buying VWs. They will be fined, we both agree on that. I think that it will be too far in the future to affect share prices for the next 6-9 months.
I also fancy keeping an eye on some suppliers to VW, Bosch etc, as they too may take a hit in the short term on the back of VW woes.
Just my opinion, I'm not investing your money, so don't fret to much.
Not fretting! - you just asked for someone to tell you that you were wrong.I also fancy keeping an eye on some suppliers to VW, Bosch etc, as they too may take a hit in the short term on the back of VW woes.
Just my opinion, I'm not investing your money, so don't fret to much.
I strongly disagree that this won't affect the share price over the next 6-9 months.
It's going to dominate it entirely....
- Which geographies.
- How many cars.
- What level of EPA fine.
- What punitive damages - pour encourager les autres...
- What class actions.
- Who gets kicked off the board.
- Who gets criminal charges.
No one is going to give a toss about VW German market share in October - which is what usually drives the stock - or their China exposure - all they worry about is the simple fact that a paltry EUR6.5bn provision isn't enough.
I agree on the suppliers though.
Sadly Bosch isn't listed - they are a tremendous company.
Ones to look at are: Continental, Valeo, Faurecia, Autoliv, Brembo, BorgWarner, Plastic Omnium, Delphi etc...
walm said:
Not fretting! - you just asked for someone to tell you that you were wrong.
I strongly disagree that this won't affect the share price over the next 6-9 months.
It's going to dominate it entirely....
- Which geographies.
- How many cars.
- What level of EPA fine.
- What punitive damages - pour encourager les autres...
- What class actions.
- Who gets kicked off the board.
- Who gets criminal charges.
No one is going to give a toss about VW German market share in October - which is what usually drives the stock - or their China exposure - all they worry about is the simple fact that a paltry EUR6.5bn provision isn't enough.
I agree on the suppliers though.
Sadly Bosch isn't listed - they are a tremendous company.
Ones to look at are: Continental, Valeo, Faurecia, Autoliv, Brembo, BorgWarner, Plastic Omnium, Delphi etc...
Good points, well made. The situation is super volatile at the moment, I see a VW shares thread has appeared ! Now keeping an eye on Valeo. I strongly disagree that this won't affect the share price over the next 6-9 months.
It's going to dominate it entirely....
- Which geographies.
- How many cars.
- What level of EPA fine.
- What punitive damages - pour encourager les autres...
- What class actions.
- Who gets kicked off the board.
- Who gets criminal charges.
No one is going to give a toss about VW German market share in October - which is what usually drives the stock - or their China exposure - all they worry about is the simple fact that a paltry EUR6.5bn provision isn't enough.
I agree on the suppliers though.
Sadly Bosch isn't listed - they are a tremendous company.
Ones to look at are: Continental, Valeo, Faurecia, Autoliv, Brembo, BorgWarner, Plastic Omnium, Delphi etc...
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