Oil...Black gold....Is it time to go buy?
Discussion
What are the feelings on the Oil Prices at the moment? Is anyone looking at opening a long position?
The price of Brent Crude is at it's lowest for for 5 years having dropped like a stone.
Everything I read along with my gut is telling me that it is a short-term temporary low due to manipulation....When it does turn around its going to happen fast.
Is $100 a barrel mid 2015 unrealistic?
Was in meeting with Commerical team last week and they are expecting a rise to 80 per bbl by end of next year
The Commerical guys view was that we haven't seen the bottom yet , his view is that it may hit less than 65 , we break even at 72 so there is massive cost reduction on opex and Capex will get slashed down as well
Two town hall meetings next week , think I now what's coming with those .
More jobs on the line I fear
The Commerical guys view was that we haven't seen the bottom yet , his view is that it may hit less than 65 , we break even at 72 so there is massive cost reduction on opex and Capex will get slashed down as well
Two town hall meetings next week , think I now what's coming with those .
More jobs on the line I fear
frank hovis said:
Was in meeting with Commerical team last week and they are expecting a rise to 80 per bbl by end of next year
The Commerical guys view was that we haven't seen the bottom yet , his view is that it may hit less than 65 , we break even at 72 so there is massive cost reduction on opex and Capex will get slashed down as well
Two town hall meetings next week , think I now what's coming with those .
More jobs on the line I fear
At the start of the year did any of this team predict the 40% fall? If they didn't why should any future prediction be given credibility?The Commerical guys view was that we haven't seen the bottom yet , his view is that it may hit less than 65 , we break even at 72 so there is massive cost reduction on opex and Capex will get slashed down as well
Two town hall meetings next week , think I now what's coming with those .
More jobs on the line I fear
I know we priced projects at 80 dollars so they did price in a fall but how much I doubt many could accurately predict the bottom
We had already cut costs in supply chain but if continues then I can see us bringing forward a couple of end of field life which would be a real shame as there is a lot of potential oil to be had but drilling is getting very expensive
Was around a major oil company when they had a major exercise - fit at forty , it was later acknowledged to be a mistake as they lost a lot of respect and a lot experience walked away never to come back .
We had already cut costs in supply chain but if continues then I can see us bringing forward a couple of end of field life which would be a real shame as there is a lot of potential oil to be had but drilling is getting very expensive
Was around a major oil company when they had a major exercise - fit at forty , it was later acknowledged to be a mistake as they lost a lot of respect and a lot experience walked away never to come back .
Fittster said:
At the start of the year did any of this team predict the 40% fall? If they didn't why should any future prediction be given credibility?
.. and if they did I hope they took out massive leveraged positions to back up their accurate predictions and now have more money than Warren Buffet!We all know the answer to that one and as you intimate.. their predictions should be filed where the sun doesn't shine
There is too much oil at the moment.
Plus disruptive technology is getting better - wind/solar/fracking.
World economy is not exactly brilliant at the moment - China slowing down, EU still looking dodgy, Russia in recession again.
There are good arguments that oil at $100/barrel is too much at the moment. You remember that its only over the last 15 years oil has been anywhere near that. For most of the period before that (except the 1970s oil crisis), $20/barrel was common.
Anyway, hedge funds have been putting long bets on, which seems to have caught them out as it was down another $2/barrel today. But they'll probably sit with their positions and wait for the inevitable rebound.
Plus disruptive technology is getting better - wind/solar/fracking.
World economy is not exactly brilliant at the moment - China slowing down, EU still looking dodgy, Russia in recession again.
There are good arguments that oil at $100/barrel is too much at the moment. You remember that its only over the last 15 years oil has been anywhere near that. For most of the period before that (except the 1970s oil crisis), $20/barrel was common.
Anyway, hedge funds have been putting long bets on, which seems to have caught them out as it was down another $2/barrel today. But they'll probably sit with their positions and wait for the inevitable rebound.
I've seen forecasts that the USA will be a net exporter by 2018 if current production rates continue. Can't see prices rising while this is happening (unless OPEC do a U turn and cut production)
It could be argued that the recent falls are merely a correction of the exponential rises seen post 2007 and have simply brought the price back to where it would have been without the daft spike
I fear that OPEC may have under-estimated the resilience of the US production capabilities - I've read of some producers being able to cope with less that $30/b
It could be argued that the recent falls are merely a correction of the exponential rises seen post 2007 and have simply brought the price back to where it would have been without the daft spike
I fear that OPEC may have under-estimated the resilience of the US production capabilities - I've read of some producers being able to cope with less that $30/b
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11283...
Not many, if any shale producers can work at $30/b.
Not many, if any shale producers can work at $30/b.
Schiehallion85 said:
What are the feelings on the Oil Prices at the moment? Is anyone looking at opening a long position?
The price of Brent Crude is at it's lowest for for 5 years having dropped like a stone.
Everything I read along with my gut is telling me that it is a short-term temporary low due to manipulation....When it does turn around its going to happen fast.
Is $100 a barrel mid 2015 unrealistic?
What can I say, apart from "is your gut a soothsayer, perchance", because if not, you need to stop reading Mystic Megs analysis, and actually look at a chart of oil, thus you will clearly see what is going on, and if you do not, let me clarify it for you, it is in a down trend.The price of Brent Crude is at it's lowest for for 5 years having dropped like a stone.
Everything I read along with my gut is telling me that it is a short-term temporary low due to manipulation....When it does turn around its going to happen fast.
Is $100 a barrel mid 2015 unrealistic?
Please excuse me for my trenchant tone, but all you seem to read is predictions this, and predictions that, without a modicum of technical analysis to back up the claims.
Let me help you out my good man, just remember, a trend is likely to persist than not, alas, is a down trend present? YES.
And realise that most news is always priced into the market, before the news breaks, so what you are hearing now is old news.
So any low risk, high probability trade is going with the grain, not against it.
HTH
Regards
Mr Fox
Mr fox said:
What can I say, apart from "is your gut a soothsayer, perchance", because if not, you need to stop reading Mystic Megs analysis, and actually look at a chart of oil, thus you will clearly see what is going on, and if you do not, let me clarify it for you, it is in a down trend.
Ah yes, the recent dip is all because everyone has been looking at technical charts.
Shaoxter said:
Mr fox said:
What can I say, apart from "is your gut a soothsayer, perchance", because if not, you need to stop reading Mystic Megs analysis, and actually look at a chart of oil, thus you will clearly see what is going on, and if you do not, let me clarify it for you, it is in a down trend.
Ah yes, the recent dip is all because everyone has been looking at technical charts.Re oil. Absolutely no need to buy now and onboard downside risk. Seems a made trade.
We know it will go back up. It's not a stock that can go to zero. It will go back to 100+. That is given. Ergo buy on the upside and dial out risk.
Demand growth weak looking through 2015 so you want to watch for forward supply declines. 2015 is most likely to be about either artificial supply cuts or real (well shutdowns) than any increase in demand. Most likely event to call the bottom is going to be OPEC announcing a cut in supply but certainly the longer we stay below $60 the more suppliers are going to fold.
We know it will go back up. It's not a stock that can go to zero. It will go back to 100+. That is given. Ergo buy on the upside and dial out risk.
Demand growth weak looking through 2015 so you want to watch for forward supply declines. 2015 is most likely to be about either artificial supply cuts or real (well shutdowns) than any increase in demand. Most likely event to call the bottom is going to be OPEC announcing a cut in supply but certainly the longer we stay below $60 the more suppliers are going to fold.
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