What is the average amount to retire on?
Discussion
red_slr said:
So when is this stock market correction coming?
No time soon arguably. Although, obviously, any crash will come out of the blue from a trigger event the mechanism that has been pushing equity valuations way beyond sustainable or attainable levels are money printing and zero rates. The EU has finally started their money printing exercise this filling the void left by the U.S. bringing theirs to an end to we will have a few years of 'buy the dip' in the EU ahead of us. But the real trigger event is going to be liable once the U.S. starts raising rates. The UK will follow within 12 months and the up cycle will have begun. Sometime during which we will see enormous capital outflows from the respective equity markets and quite possibly a crash. But then the reason why you always hold a healthy percentage of your wealth as cash is so that post any crash you can go overweight in that class and magnify the benefit of the recovery. Crashes are the events that accelerate your long term portfolio growth.
Yes but why hold any equity at the moment? I transferred my 50k pension from euro equity to secure last week and my mothers fund they had put in secure I changed that in 2012 and it went from 35 to 52 and I'm thinking of writing them now to put it into the secure fund. That's a massive increase and if the markets have their way will rob it back if they could in time.If inflation is near zero then why be in anything other than cash? Not much point in panicking imho in anything but cash.
Would anyone here be comfortable paying 52 for something bought for 35 that they didn't need? With money worth no more so no reason for the massive inflation it isn't rational.
The other thing is that the crash could be 2 or more years or it could be next week or it may not even happen and theirs a slow fall or none at all. You have to wish the next buyer the best of luck with it and if they go up from here that's their good fortune.
Would anyone here be comfortable paying 52 for something bought for 35 that they didn't need? With money worth no more so no reason for the massive inflation it isn't rational.
The other thing is that the crash could be 2 or more years or it could be next week or it may not even happen and theirs a slow fall or none at all. You have to wish the next buyer the best of luck with it and if they go up from here that's their good fortune.
Edited by gvij on Sunday 22 March 09:32
Edited by gvij on Sunday 22 March 09:33
Edited by gvij on Sunday 22 March 09:39
Welshbeef said:
Lastly how do you inderstand the final salary pension fund values - where do you get that info? Especially if its public sector.
Request a transfer value from the provider. The actuaries will then give you a figure that will get you about half your current benefit if you were to buy an annuity with it.gvij said:
bad company said:
Are you always so positive & optimistic? 
Just realistic. This time is different.. not..I've been wrong plenty of times before tho.
blank said:
Welshbeef said:
Lastly how do you inderstand the final salary pension fund values - where do you get that info? Especially if its public sector.
Request a transfer value from the provider. The actuaries will then give you a figure that will get you about half your current benefit if you were to buy an annuity with it.bad company said:
I agree that there could well be a correction but I can't see it anything like the level you are predicting. I will still be buying albeit slowly and on dips.
I've been wrong plenty of times before tho.
Ive only 50k though in it so a bit of a game either way and interesting to see what happens but one has to say that no one wants to pull money out of a rising market it is counterintuitive. Buffett and he knows a thing or two about investing-be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. People are being greedy now and I'm worried.I've been wrong plenty of times before tho.
Welshbeef said:
red_slr said:
So when is this stock market correction coming?
Given FTSE at all time high you could argue were maybe near the peak so sell now then wait and buy back later - or risk it and let it smashSelling now is also risking it - missing out on future increases and income.
CarlosFandango11 said:
Welshbeef said:
red_slr said:
So when is this stock market correction coming?
Given FTSE at all time high you could argue were maybe near the peak so sell now then wait and buy back later - or risk it and let it smashSelling now is also risking it - missing out on future increases and income.
Welshbeef said:
red_slr said:
So when is this stock market correction coming?
Given FTSE at all time high you could argue were maybe near the peak so sell now then wait and buy back later - or risk it and let it smash- It's only the same level as 15 years ago
- Major economies are recovering
- Stock markets are about to rise sharply.
gvij said:
I transferred my 50k pension from euro equity to secure last week and my mothers fund they had put in secure I changed that in 2012 and it went from 35 to 52 and I'm thinking of writing them now to put it into the secure fund.
What do you consider to be "secure"?And over what timescale?
IMO the risk of standing still, which initially feels secure, is that you get left behind.
Countdown said:
Welshbeef said:
Lastly how do you inderstand the final salary pension fund values - where do you get that info? Especially if its public sector.
Is it a funded or unfunded scheme? If it's the former then the Employer will normally get an FRs17/IAS19 report every year.Pe ratios are approaching 20 with long term risks of cheaper goods /labour from Asia not priced in for risk.
Stocks are very dear , that's greed. There isn't any value out there at the moment, when I see some Il buy back in.
Buy to let with 30% and a mortgage in certain parts of the Uk still looks reasonable bet if you have the time to manage it but you'd want around 5-7 % return for the hassle preferably the latter. Over 20 or 30 years there will be capital increases (though unsure of central London where they are very dear ) and the rents will continue to come in although taxed its a very slow burner. Its outside the tax deductible wrapper of a pension though.
Stocks are very dear , that's greed. There isn't any value out there at the moment, when I see some Il buy back in.
Buy to let with 30% and a mortgage in certain parts of the Uk still looks reasonable bet if you have the time to manage it but you'd want around 5-7 % return for the hassle preferably the latter. Over 20 or 30 years there will be capital increases (though unsure of central London where they are very dear ) and the rents will continue to come in although taxed its a very slow burner. Its outside the tax deductible wrapper of a pension though.
Welshbeef said:
I've a number of final salary (and career average) how do I know what those "pots" are? Or is it the case that its what you as an individual have paid into a pension?
Say at least 10 years of final salary and career average (wife would be similar length but final salary all the way).
Now I'm sadly defined contribution so its pretty easy to calculate the value invested (not what the fund has grown by).
In addition to the max £1m total pot isn't the total annual contribution now £30k? In which case top earning directors football players etc would need to pay in over 34 years to fill the pot.
How is your final salary pension valued? Simple. Multiply the annual pension by 20, and if unfunded and with a gratuity (say, three times that) is awarded, then add that. Currently, at a LTA of £1.25 million, active members of most defined benefit or final salary schemes will be affected if their income at retirement exceeds £62,500.Say at least 10 years of final salary and career average (wife would be similar length but final salary all the way).
Now I'm sadly defined contribution so its pretty easy to calculate the value invested (not what the fund has grown by).
In addition to the max £1m total pot isn't the total annual contribution now £30k? In which case top earning directors football players etc would need to pay in over 34 years to fill the pot.
However, members of unfunded public sector schemes (such as the armed forces) will currently be affected if their projected pension exceeds £54,347 net of gratuity (20 x the pension PLUS the tax free cash of 3 x the pension).
When the LTA reduces to £1 million of course, so too, does the threshold - that will drop noticeably and suck many into it - the new 'fat cats' it seems. A pension of £40,000 and three times cash puts you at £920,000 - almost there. Bear in mind too, that a deferred final salary pension still gets recalculated annually, so should increase in value over the years.
gvij said:
Pe ratios are approaching 20 with long term risks of cheaper goods /labour from Asia not priced in for risk.
Stocks are very dear , that's greed. There isn't any value out there at the moment, when I see some Il buy back in.
Buy to let with 30% and a mortgage in certain parts of the Uk still looks reasonable bet if you have the time to manage it but you'd want around 5-7 % return for the hassle preferably the latter. Over 20 or 30 years there will be capital increases (though unsure of central London where they are very dear ) and the rents will continue to come in although taxed its a very slow burner. Its outside the tax deductible wrapper of a pension though.
But EU are commencing QE on a vast scale which will boost stock and other asset prices. Stocks are very dear , that's greed. There isn't any value out there at the moment, when I see some Il buy back in.
Buy to let with 30% and a mortgage in certain parts of the Uk still looks reasonable bet if you have the time to manage it but you'd want around 5-7 % return for the hassle preferably the latter. Over 20 or 30 years there will be capital increases (though unsure of central London where they are very dear ) and the rents will continue to come in although taxed its a very slow burner. Its outside the tax deductible wrapper of a pension though.
So buy precious metals commercial property resi property and stocks just don't hold cash.
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