Discussion
sidicks said:
If you want to gamble, go to a betting shop. Investing in equities over such short periods is akin to gambling.
This mostly. You may do ok between now and the end of the year, however in the medium term (i.e. up to a year) I think that there's increasing chance of things moving lower (or QE).Have the Chinese stopped doing what they've been doing for the past 20 years? No
Have Tesco customers decided they no longer need a weekly food shop and school uniforms for the kids? No
Has the VW emissions scandal made everyone decide to leave their car at home and walk instead? No
Have people decided to stop using banks? No
Has the population stopped ageing and becoming ill? No
Have interest rates risen to the point where cash savings can generate a return positive to inflation? No
FTSE 100 is IMO heading back towards 7000
Have Tesco customers decided they no longer need a weekly food shop and school uniforms for the kids? No
Has the VW emissions scandal made everyone decide to leave their car at home and walk instead? No
Have people decided to stop using banks? No
Has the population stopped ageing and becoming ill? No
Have interest rates risen to the point where cash savings can generate a return positive to inflation? No
FTSE 100 is IMO heading back towards 7000
bad company said:
sidicks said:
If you want to gamble, go to a betting shop. Investing in equities over such short periods is akin to gambling.
The op didn't say short term. We all try to invest at the right time.I reckon the FTSE will finish the year around 6600, but I usually get it wrong.
ringram said:
bad company said:
sidicks said:
If you want to gamble, go to a betting shop. Investing in equities over such short periods is akin to gambling.
The op didn't say short term. We all try to invest at the right time.I reckon the FTSE will finish the year around 6600, but I usually get it wrong.
My point is that in asking what we think the prospects might be for the last few months of the year doesn't mean that the op intends buying for the short term only. As I said I'm a long term guy but obviously try to buy near the bottom of the market.
As a long term investor the lower the dip the more of the pie you get with each purchase.
It may be worth looking at a few graphs and compare their performance or their individual reaction to different situations.
Look at the 100, 250, 350 and All Share. (and maybe S&P)
The 100 is highly influenced by Banks and Oil.
This is not necessarily a bad thing if oil recovers and interest rates move up.
But it's those "ifs" that make it what it is!
I doubt UK will raise rates before the Fed, Yellen passed on a few opportunities IMO, the unemployment and payroll participation improved, she didn't raise.
Now inflation has dipped below what everyone hoped for which will inhibit growth.
China is a basket case that defies logic, shares in Hong kong are priced at reasonable P/Es while the same share in China was at 30. (Less now)
So....if oil recovers a little helped by high winter demand and we do actually move back to more normal int rates then the 100 should whiz past 7.
Commodities (Mining) is also an influential component of the 100, less happening there
Personally when stuff is down, I find it easy to decide where to put my Monthly contributions, when everything is good it actually becomes difficult, I hate putting my hard earned money into something at an all time high.
Did you consider Europe for a slower but perhaps a more rational ride.
It may be worth looking at a few graphs and compare their performance or their individual reaction to different situations.
Look at the 100, 250, 350 and All Share. (and maybe S&P)
The 100 is highly influenced by Banks and Oil.
This is not necessarily a bad thing if oil recovers and interest rates move up.
But it's those "ifs" that make it what it is!
I doubt UK will raise rates before the Fed, Yellen passed on a few opportunities IMO, the unemployment and payroll participation improved, she didn't raise.
Now inflation has dipped below what everyone hoped for which will inhibit growth.
China is a basket case that defies logic, shares in Hong kong are priced at reasonable P/Es while the same share in China was at 30. (Less now)
So....if oil recovers a little helped by high winter demand and we do actually move back to more normal int rates then the 100 should whiz past 7.
Commodities (Mining) is also an influential component of the 100, less happening there
Personally when stuff is down, I find it easy to decide where to put my Monthly contributions, when everything is good it actually becomes difficult, I hate putting my hard earned money into something at an all time high.
Did you consider Europe for a slower but perhaps a more rational ride.
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